Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [2]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the overall allocation of public funds in the chemical sector has significantly increased, indicating a bottoming out and potential investment opportunities [2]. - The top ten chemical stocks held by public funds saw a recovery in their market value share, with a notable increase in the proportion of leading blue-chip stocks, suggesting a preference for stable investments in cyclical products with price elasticity [2][12]. - The total market value of the top 30 chemical stocks held by public funds reached approximately 79.89 billion, reflecting a significant increase of about 45.23% compared to the previous quarter [24]. Summary by Sections 1. Q4 2025 Public Fund Chemical Holdings Changes - The proportion of heavy chemical stocks in overall public fund holdings increased by 0.70 percentage points to 2.37%, marking a new high for 2025 [7]. - Regional allocations also saw increases, with East China rising by 0.63 percentage points to 2.33%, South China by 0.96 percentage points to 3.02%, and North China by 0.44 percentage points to 1.44% [7]. 2. Changes in the Number of Funds Holding Chemical Stocks - The number of funds holding chemical stocks increased significantly, driven mainly by blue-chip stocks. The top three stocks with the highest increase in the number of funds were Wanhua Chemical, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), and Hualu Hengsheng, with increases of 119, 85, and 75 funds respectively [15][19]. 3. Total Market Value and Concentration of Chemical Holdings - The total market value of the top 30 chemical stocks held by public funds increased significantly, with these stocks accounting for 84.68% of the total market value of all heavy chemical stocks, an increase of 3.34 percentage points [24]. - The leading stocks by market value included Wanhua Chemical at approximately 89.41 billion, CNOOC at 67.53 billion, and Juhua Co., Ltd. at 59.78 billion [24].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry ETF managed by E Fund has shown significant growth, with the index and constituent stocks experiencing notable increases in value, indicating a strong performance in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Index Performance - As of January 28, 2026, the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index (H11057) rose by 3.28%, with constituent stocks such as BANG Bio rising by 10.16%, Zhejiang Longsheng by 9.99%, and Satellite Chemical by 8.59% [1]. - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570) increased by 3.41%, with a latest price of 1.15 yuan [1]. - Over the week leading up to January 27, 2026, the E Fund Chemical Industry ETF saw a cumulative increase of 2.77% [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Volume - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF had a turnover rate of 6.24% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 34.99 million yuan [1]. - The average daily trading volume for the ETF over the past week was 38.89 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Fund Size and Shares - The latest size of the E Fund Chemical Industry ETF reached 549 million yuan, marking a one-year high [1]. - The ETF's latest share count reached 494 million shares, also a one-year high [1]. Group 4: Net Inflows - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF experienced continuous net inflows over the past eight days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 74.97 million yuan, totaling 280 million yuan in net inflows [1]. - The average daily net inflow was 35.02 million yuan [1]. Group 5: Top Holdings - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index accounted for 56.73% of the index, including companies like Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, and China Petrochemical [2].

化工行业ETF易方达（516570）跟踪中证石化产业指数，备受资金青睐。数据显示，该基金连续5日获 资金净流入，合计超2.2亿，近20日资金净流入超3.4亿。截至发稿，化工行业ETF易方达（516570）盘 中溢价成交，溢价率达0.28%。 消息面上，近期中东局势显著升温，市场担忧大规模石油断供，原油地缘溢价攀升，并带动下游能化商 品上涨。 截至9：42，中证石化产业指数（H11057）涨0.54%，成分股中，万华化学涨1.77%，中国石油涨 1.72%，中国石化涨0.47%，盐湖股份跌1.25%，中国海油涨2.86%，藏格矿业跌2.32%，巨化股份跌 0.83%，恒力石化涨0.43%，华鲁恒升涨0.6%，宝丰能源涨2.21%。 易方达中证石化产业ETF联接A(020104.OF) 易方达中证石化产业ETF联接C(020105.OF) 华泰证券认为，油价或已进入筑底反弹阶段，叠加美联储降息对需求拉动，亚非拉地区成品油需求或景 气上行，上调2026年布伦特均价为65美元/桶（前值62美元/桶）。长期而言，考虑主要产油国边际成本 及"利重于量"诉求，油价中枢存60美元/桶底部支撑。具备增产降本能力及天然气业务增量 ...

Group 1 - The core intermediate product prices for disperse dyes have surged by 50% this year, from 25,000 to 38,000, leading to an increase in dye prices, with a notable rise of 1,000 in disperse black prices on January 22, and expectations for continued price increases in the future [1] - Due to stricter environmental and safety inspections, outdated production capacity is gradually exiting the market, resulting in a highly concentrated supply with only three main suppliers remaining, and a strong demand outlook [1] - Historical data indicates that due to environmental issues, the price of the intermediate product has previously risen to 100,000, with short-term expectations seeing it reach 50,000, corresponding to a price increase of 25,000; disperse dye prices are projected to reach 20,000, corresponding to an increase of 4,000 [1] Group 2 - The chemical ETF (159870) has seen a strong increase of 2.63%, with a latest price of 0.93 yuan and a net subscription of 300 million shares, marking a continuous inflow for 20 days [2] - The CSI sub-industry chemical theme index (000813) has risen by 2, with major stocks like Zhejiang Longsheng up by 9.99% and Hebang Biotechnology by 8.98%, indicating strong performance in the chemical sector [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI sub-industry chemical theme index account for 45.31% of the index, including companies like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Industry [2]

截至9：36，中证石化产业指数（H11057）涨1.21%，成分股中，万华化学涨2.04%，中国石油涨 1.92%，中国石化涨0.94%，盐湖股份跌0.28%，中国海油涨3.97%，藏格矿业跌2.01%，巨化股份涨 0.75%，恒力石化涨1.67%，华鲁恒升涨1.42%，宝丰能源涨2.7%。 化工行业ETF易方达（516570）跟踪中证石化产业指数，备受资金青睐。数据显示，该基金连续5日获 资金净流入，合计超2.2亿，近20日资金净流入超3.4亿。 易方达中证石化产业ETF联接A(020104.OF) 易方达中证石化产业ETF联接C(020105.OF) 受席卷全美的冬季风暴影响，美国能源基础设施和电网承压。机构预测，上周末期间美国原油生产商的 日产量减少至多200万桶，约占全国原油总产量的15%。此外，美国寒潮进一步引发市场对乙二醇供应 担忧。 相关产品： 化工行业ETF易方达（516570）覆盖"三桶油"，一键打包化工产业龙头，管理费率+托管费率合计仅 0.2%/年，助力投资者低成本布局传统能源产业机会。 国金证券认为，化工板块或将重估，一是供给端的政策指引可能使得供给端的天花板更加明晰，产业地 位方面， ...

机构指出，在25年12月底到1月初，确实是预期化工企业盈利改善，到1月27日，化工企业实时的利润已 经发生很大的变化。比如烟煤价格从去年11月份820跌到现在700。宝丰能源一年化工用煤2800万吨，华 鲁用煤近1000万吨，煤价跌120，成本端改善分别是30、10亿以上。这还是化工品是淡季，价格还没怎 么涨的情况下。 此前调整的化工板块今日强势反弹，消息面上，1月化工股持续上涨，化工品价格涨幅有限，市场担忧 股价涨幅过于领先。 炼化企业利润改善更夸张，从去年11月到现在人民币相比美元升值了3%。按照一年2000万吨的原油采 购来算，65美元/桶，采购成本降低了近20亿人民币。如果在算配套的1000万吨煤炭消耗，2000万吨炼 厂光能源就改善了近30亿。这还是产品价格没涨的情况，没算下降的气价，油价，电价。化工企业只要 正常点，经营已经大幅度改善了，股价上涨很正常。 原料PPI同比大幅回落，产品PPI转正，价差同比大幅改善，化工股真正的弹性才出来。25年1、2、3月 布伦特油价为78、74、71美元，长丝POY价格分别为7215、7288、7070元。现在油价66美元，长丝POY 价格为6800元，如果后续2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical sector is experiencing a positive trend, with the China Petrochemical Industry Index showing an increase, and significant inflows into the Petrochemical ETF, indicating strong investor interest and potential for growth [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 28, 2026, the China Petrochemical Industry Index rose by 0.54%, with key stocks like Zhejiang Longsheng hitting the daily limit up, and others such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Hubei Biopharma also seeing gains [1]. - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) increased by 0.39%, with a turnover rate of 4.34% during the trading session [1]. - Over the past 15 days, the Petrochemical ETF has attracted a total net inflow of 745 million yuan, reaching a record high of 1.018 billion shares and a total size of 1.045 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The Petrochemical ETF has seen a net value increase of 62.39% over the past two years [1]. - The highest monthly return since inception was 15.86%, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being 8 months and a maximum cumulative increase of 41.60% [1]. - The average monthly return during the rising months was 5.25%, and the ETF outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 2.35% over the past year [1]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Tianfeng Securities indicates that a turning point in policy and capital expenditure is evident, with the concept of "anti-involution" suggesting improved profitability and healthier long-term development for the industry [1]. - The chemical industry is entering a strategic window, characterized by the exit of high-cost marginal capacity overseas and a restructuring of the global chemical order [1]. Group 4: Top Holdings - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Petrochemical Industry Index accounted for 56.73% of the index, including Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, and China Petrochemical among others [2].

1月初以来，农药化工板块持续回暖，开启周期修复行情；农业另一子板块生猪养殖却持续回调，短期 或已充分反应业绩悲观预期。资金连续两日逆势净流入农业ETF华夏（516810.SH），或逢低布局修复 行情，以及博弈2月重要政策预期。 东方证券表示，2026年农业是拐点向上的年份，养殖、种植将依次发力，带来板块趋势上行，建议重点 关注。尤其是生猪养殖板块，优质公司持续盈利和分红率提升依然是推动板块长期业绩和估值提升的核 心驱动；近期政策与市场合力推动生猪养殖行业产能去化，助力未来板块业绩长期提升。 农业ETF华夏（516810.SH）被动跟踪中证农业主题指数，农林牧渔+基础化工含量93.64%，前十大权 重股包括牧原股份、温氏股份、海大集团、藏格矿业、盐湖股份、亚钾国际等，牧原股份+温氏股份合 计权重占比近25%。 消息面上，据新浪报道，养殖龙头公司牧原股份传最快2月香港上市。业绩方面，牧原股份2025年业绩 预告显示，第四季度业绩预计中值实现盈利，成本降幅领先行业，体现龙头公司穿越周期的韧性； ...

长江商报消息●长江商报记者 沈右荣 "矿茅"紫金矿业（601899.SH、02899.HK）又抛出重磅金矿收购计划。 拟购标的拥有金资源量533吨 紫金矿业再度大手笔海外买矿。 根据公告，1月26日，紫金黄金国际与联合黄金签署《安排协议》，紫金黄金国际拟以44加元/股的现金 价格收购联合黄金全部已发行的普通股，收购对价共计约55亿加元，约合人民币280亿元（按当日汇率 计算）。 公告显示，联合黄金是一家总部位于加拿大的黄金矿业公司，于2023年9月在多伦多证券交易所上市， 2025年6月在纽约证券交易所上市。 1月26日晚，紫金矿业发布公告，公司控股的紫金黄金国际有限公司（简称"紫金黄金国际"，股票代码 为02259.HK）与Allied Gold Corporation（以下简称"联合黄金"）签署协议，紫金黄金国际拟出资55亿加 元（约合人民币280亿元）收购联合黄金全部已发行的普通股。 联合黄金是一家总部位于加拿大的黄金矿业公司，截至2024年底，其拥有金资源量533吨。 紫金矿业称，联合黄金旗下项目均为在产或即将投产的大型露天开采金矿，预计2029年产金将提升至25 吨。 本次收购主体紫金黄金国际，系紫 ...

紫金矿业（601899.SH）开年首单并购，选择了加拿大的金矿企业。 后者核心资产，为位于非洲马里、科特迪瓦与埃塞俄比亚的多个金矿，相关项目预计2025年产金11.7～ 12.4吨，后续经过改扩建及新建产能释放，到2029年产金将提升至25吨。 12个国家，12座大型金矿 1月26日，紫金矿业公告，计划通过其控股子公司紫金黄金国际，以44加元/股的现金价格，收购联合黄 金全部已发行的普通股，收购对价共计约55亿加元（约合人民币280亿元）。 紫金矿业2024年调整后的五年产量规划为，2028年矿产金目标为100-110吨，而在2025年公司矿产金已 经达到90吨。 后续，一旦对联合黄金的收购完成并实现并表，紫金矿业将提前两年达成百吨产金目标。 此外，近两年随着金、铜价格的上涨，该公司外部并购也呈现出了明显的"项目大型化"特点，新购金矿 项目预期产量普遍在5吨/年以上，并且百亿级收购案明显增加。 根据21世纪经济报道记者此前不完全统计，截至2025年12月下旬，包括紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、江西铜业 等在内的多家企业，全年海外金矿资产收购总额达到297亿元。 而紫金矿业上述单笔并购金额，便已经与去年中资矿企海外"购金 ...