发布时间：2026-02-04 ⚫ 投资要点 2025 年报业绩预告显示 A 股业绩延续 2025 三季报以来的改善趋 势。单纯从业绩预告的预喜率（预增、略增、续盈、扭亏）和预忧率 （预减、略减、首亏、续亏）来看，A 股上市公司在 2025 年报或将出 现边际回升。根据 2025 年报的业绩预告，预增和扭亏上市公司数量 和占比显著提升，同时预减和首亏数量同比也明显减少。但续亏的上 市公司数量和占比较 2024 财年也有明显上升，说明业绩的好转是分 化的，仍有相当数量的上市公司陷在连年亏损的桎梏之中。 大盘指数 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000 3000 4000 5000 上证指数 深证成指 0 1000 0 1000 中小100 创业板指 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《枪炮与黄油-2026 年度投资策略》 - 2026.01.27 策略观点 业绩之锚 6：A 股对业绩预告的反应机制与偏好 回溯 2019-2024 年 ...

截至2026年2月4日 13:08，中证消费电子主题指数(931494)下跌3.17%。成分股方面涨跌互现，水晶光电 领涨5.22%，三环集团上涨4.62%，京东方A上涨1.86%；信维通信领跌10.03%，澜起科技下跌8.10%， 东山精密下跌6.27%。消费电子ETF(561600)下跌3.05%，最新报价1.21元。 消息面上，根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新近眼显示产业调查，随着AI与穿戴式装置深度融合，Meta Ray- Ban Display Glasses在终端市场获得的回馈明显优于预期，近半年内已大幅上修多项关键零部件订单。 在大厂推波助澜之下，TrendForce集邦咨询预估2026年全球AR眼镜出货量将跃升至95万台，年增率为 53%。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资 产，但不保证本基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。基金管理人提醒投资人基金投资的"买者自负"原 则，在做出投资决策后，基金运营状况与基金净值变化引致的投资风险，由投资人自行负担。基金的过 往业绩及其净值高低并不预示其未来业绩表现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩不构成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of capital from various stocks, particularly in the communication equipment and internet service sectors, reflecting investor sentiment and market trends [1][2][3] Group 1: Major Stocks with Capital Outflows - Zhongji Xuchuang experienced a capital outflow of 3.07 billion, with a decline of 5.24% [2] - Xinyi Sheng saw a capital outflow of 2.33 billion, with a decline of 5.66% [2] - Liou Shares had a capital outflow of 2.07 billion, with a decline of 8.74% [2] - BlueFocus Media faced a capital outflow of 1.77 billion, with a decline of 8.88% [2] - Xinwei Communication had a capital outflow of 1.57 billion, with a decline of 9.41% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The communication equipment sector showed significant outflows, with Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinwei Communication leading the losses [2][3] - The internet service sector also faced notable outflows, with Liou Shares and NetEase Technology among the top affected stocks [2][3] - The cultural media sector, represented by BlueFocus Media, experienced substantial capital outflows, indicating potential investor concerns [2][3] Group 3: Additional Stocks with Notable Outflows - Industrial Fulian had a capital outflow of 1.32 billion, with a decline of 4.65% [2] - Runze Technology saw a capital outflow of 1.26 billion, with a decline of 7.24% [2] - Hunan Silver experienced a capital outflow of 0.801 billion, with a decline of 4.47% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant sell-off in AI software stocks in the US market, which has impacted the A-share market, particularly affecting AI-related ETFs and stocks [1] - The A-share market is experiencing increased volatility with a notable divergence among sectors, but the long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by ongoing policies for the domestic AI industry [2] - The recent sell-off in US tech stocks, especially software companies, has raised concerns about the potential threat of AI technology replacing core business functions [1] Group 2 - The AI sector is currently in a rapid development phase, with expectations for increased capital expenditure in the global computing power sector as domestic support policies continue to be implemented [2] - The Spring market rally is expected to be followed by a consolidation phase, where the focus will be on clarifying industry trends and digesting valuations [2] - The long-term outlook remains positive for sectors such as overseas computing power chains, AI applications, energy storage, robotics, and commercial aerospace [2] Group 3 - The Huaxia AI ETF (159381) tracks an index with nearly 50% weight in CPO, covering domestic software and AI application companies, and has a low fee rate of 0.20% [3] - The Huaxia Communication ETF (515050) has a scale exceeding 8 billion yuan, covering key areas such as optical modules and computing power infrastructure, with a combined weight of over 76% in CPO and CPB concept stocks [3] - The Huaxia Cloud Computing ETF (516630) focuses on domestic AI software and hardware computing power, with a combined weight of 83.7% in computer software, cloud services, and computer equipment, also featuring a low fee rate of 0.20% [3]

Summary of the Conference Call on AI Annual Report Analysis Industry Overview - The conference focused on the analysis and outlook of AI annual reports, particularly in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, with a specific emphasis on domestic and international AI companies [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments General Market Sentiment - The period from October 31 to March is characterized as a performance vacuum, where the focus is on thematic investments rather than immediate earnings results [2][3]. - The spring market is expected to see a resurgence, with significant activity anticipated around March [3][4]. North American Companies - North American companies, particularly those involved in AI and cloud computing, have reported earnings that exceeded expectations, indicating strong capital expenditure in AI [4][6]. - Companies like Microsoft and Meta have shown robust spending on AI infrastructure, reflecting a positive outlook for the sector [4][6]. - Despite some domestic companies underperforming, their stock prices have rebounded, suggesting that market sentiment is more focused on thematic trends rather than immediate earnings [5][6]. Domestic AI Companies - Domestic AI companies are experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with strong demand for AI-related products and services, despite some companies reporting earnings below expectations [6][7]. - The industry is characterized by a shortage of materials and components, which is driving prices up and creating a favorable environment for growth [6][7][10]. Future Growth Projections - There is a consensus that the growth trajectory for AI companies will continue to be strong, with expectations for significant growth in 2026 and beyond [8][9]. - Many companies are currently undervalued, trading at price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios between 15x to 20x, which presents a potential investment opportunity [8][9]. Specific Company Insights - Companies like Wan, Tianfu Communication, and others are highlighted for their potential despite recent earnings misses, as the overall industry outlook remains positive [4][6][7]. - The demand for GPUs and AI chips is expected to remain high, with domestic companies like Cambrian facing challenges but still showing potential for recovery [9][10]. Application and Innovation - The conference emphasized the importance of AI applications, particularly in gaming and media, with companies like Tencent and ByteDance leading the charge [14][15]. - The emergence of AI-driven applications is seen as a significant growth area, with expectations for increased investment and innovation in this space [14][15]. Regulatory and Market Concerns - There are concerns regarding potential regulatory impacts on the gaming industry, but these are largely viewed as unfounded and not likely to affect the overall market significantly [15][16]. - The market is currently experiencing volatility, but analysts suggest that this presents buying opportunities for fundamentally strong companies [21][22]. Additional Important Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring capital expenditure trends among major tech companies, as this will influence the demand for AI infrastructure and services [36][37]. - The potential for new technologies, such as diamond-based cooling materials for semiconductors, was discussed as a future growth area [24][25]. - Analysts recommend focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, particularly in the AI and semiconductor sectors, as the market continues to evolve [22][23][39].

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Company and Industry Summary Company: 鸿富瀚 (Hongfuhang) Key Points - **Contract Signing**: The company announced the signing of a purchase and sales contract worth 480 million yuan with Guangdong Quanxiang and Jiangxi Xiexun on February 3. This contract includes the provision of handling robots, collaborative robots, charging robots, new energy forklifts, and core components of robots [1] - **Support from Major Clients**: Jiangxi Xiexun is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Luxshare Precision, indicating that the company continues to receive backing from major industry players. This support is expected to enhance the company's annual profit for 2026 [1] - **Profit Forecast Increase**: The profit forecast for 2026 has been raised to 550 million yuan, while the profit expectation for 2027 remains at 1 billion yuan. This reflects a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [1] - **Revenue Breakdown**: The new business from Luxshare's robotics segment is expected to contribute 480 million yuan in revenue and 50 million yuan in profit, with significant potential for further upward adjustments. Previous revenue contributions included 1 billion yuan from Luxshare, 600 million yuan from Alibaba, and 200 million yuan from Delta Tianhong, totaling 2.7 billion yuan. The traditional conductive shielding structural components business contributed 150-200 million yuan, and the energy storage station added 50 million yuan in profit, leading to a total profit of 500 million yuan [2] - **Future Order Expectations**: The company anticipates that future orders will continue to exceed expectations, supported by the ongoing expansion into overseas markets. This expansion is expected to further enhance profitability [2]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the Zhuhai-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Theme Index and its related ETF indicates a strong upward trend, reflecting positive market sentiment towards companies benefiting from the Greater Bay Area development [2][3]. Group 1: Index Performance - As of February 3, 2026, the Zhuhai-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Theme Index (931000) increased by 1.50%, with notable gains from component stocks such as XW Communication (up 13.12%) and Mingyang Smart Energy (up 7.63%) [2]. - The Greater Bay Area ETF (512970) rose by 1.83%, with a latest price of 1.5 yuan, and has accumulated a 16.77% increase over the past six months [2]. - The ETF's trading volume showed a turnover rate of 1.59% with a transaction value of 1.3822 million yuan, and an average daily transaction of 1.0538 million yuan over the past week [2]. Group 2: Risk and Return Metrics - The Greater Bay Area ETF recorded a Sharpe ratio of 1.51 over the past year as of January 30, 2026, indicating a favorable risk-adjusted return [2]. - The maximum drawdown for the ETF this year was 5.52%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.02% [2]. - The management fee for the ETF is set at 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05% [2]. Group 3: Index Composition - The index closely tracks companies that benefit from the Greater Bay Area development, including a selection of up to 50 Hong Kong market securities, 300 companies from the Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen markets, and 100 mainland market securities [3]. - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 44.55% of the total, with major companies including Ping An Insurance, Luxshare Precision, and BYD [3][4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Basic Fundamental 120 ETF managed by Harvest Fund Management, which opened at 2.461 yuan with a slight increase of 0.37% [1] - The ETF's major holdings include companies such as CATL, Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, BOE Technology Group, Ping An Bank, Luxshare Precision, Vanke A, TCL Technology, Wuliangye, and Weichai Power, with varying performance among these stocks [1] - Since its inception on August 1, 2011, the ETF has achieved a return of 145.57%, while its return over the past month is 2.89% [1] Group 2 - The ETF's performance benchmark is the Shenzhen Basic Fundamental 120 Index, indicating its investment strategy is aligned with this index [1] - The fund manager is Harvest Fund Management Co., Ltd., and the fund manager is Li Zhi [1]

Group 1: Public Fund Industry - In 2026, public fund companies showed strong enthusiasm for self-purchase, with 24 companies implementing self-purchases totaling 406 million yuan, over 80% of which was directed towards equity funds [1] - Among the self-purchases, stock funds received 100 million yuan and mixed funds received 248 million yuan, while bond funds received 30 million yuan [1] - Ruifeng Fund led the self-purchase with 100 million yuan, while several other companies, including GF Fund and China Merchants Fund, each self-purchased 20 million yuan [1] Group 2: Payment Industry - The number of third-party payment licenses is continuously decreasing, with the first company, Henan Jubao Payment, exiting the market in 2026 [2] - The decline in payment institutions is attributed to structural reshuffling and regulatory upgrades within the industry [2] - Traditional payment businesses are under pressure, with many companies reporting declines in net profit after excluding non-recurring gains, prompting a need for transformation towards cross-border payments and AI integration [2] Group 3: Refrigerant Industry - The refrigerant market remains strong despite being in the traditional off-season, with prices for R32 and R134a increasing by approximately 45% and 32% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The industry is expected to see long-term price increases due to strict global supply constraints and growing downstream demand [2] - Major companies are primarily executing long-term contracts, but market prices are expected to exceed contract prices, indicating a robust pricing environment [2] Group 4: Smartphone Market in India - The Indian smartphone market saw a 1% year-on-year increase in shipments in 2025, with sales revenue growing by 8% due to a shift towards high-end devices [3] - However, a single-digit decline in shipments is anticipated for 2026, particularly in the segment priced below 15,000 Indian Rupees, due to rising costs of components [3] - The average selling price (ASP) is expected to increase by 5%-7% as major OEMs focus on high-end strategies [3] Group 5: Nanobody Research - Research indicates that nanobodies extracted from llamas show potential in treating various diseases, including depression, prompting significant investment from pharmaceutical companies [4] - The development of next-generation nanobody drugs is seen as a breakthrough in precision medicine [4] Group 6: Cancer Burden Quantification - The IARC and WHO quantified the global burden of preventable cancers, revealing that nearly 40% of new cancer cases in 2022 were linked to modifiable risk factors [4] - The findings emphasize the importance of reducing smoking, infections, and alcohol consumption in cancer prevention efforts [4] Group 7: PayPal's Financial Performance - PayPal's fourth-quarter earnings and revenue fell short of expectations, leading to a significant drop in stock price and a change in CEO [5] - The company reported earnings of $1.23 per share and total revenue of $8.68 billion, both below analyst forecasts [5] Group 8: Tianqi Lithium Industry - Tianqi Lithium suspended trading in Hong Kong as it plans to dispose of part of its stake in SQM, with a maximum of 3.566 million A shares to be sold [6] - The company has already disposed of 748,500 B shares, and as of the announcement date, it holds 62.556 million A shares, representing 21.90% of SQM's total shares [6] Group 9: Corporate Governance Issues - Gaoxin Retail announced difficulties in contacting its CEO, but the board believes this will not significantly impact operations [7] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a regulatory warning to Pengxin Resources for failing to appoint a board secretary, which has been vacant since January 2022 [8]