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如何看待高成长与经典价值?柏基“传奇基金经理”詹姆斯·安德森2019年深度撰文︱重阳荐文
重阳投资· 2025-12-08 07:33
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving perspectives on growth and value investing, highlighting the need to reassess traditional investment principles in light of modern economic realities and the success of high-growth companies [5][6][7]. Group 1: Growth vs. Value - There is an acknowledged and widening divergence between growth and value investing, with traditional value principles struggling to account for the sustained high growth of companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon [7][8]. - The underlying economic structure has shifted, suggesting that reliance on historical value metrics may no longer be sufficient for investment success [7][8]. - Despite the differences, there are fundamental commonalities between growth and value investing, particularly in the importance of honest long-term cash flow estimation and risk management [8][9]. Group 2: Historical Context and Evolution - Historically, there has been a lack of literature supporting growth investing compared to the extensive documentation of value investing, which has created a bias in the investment community [13][14]. - The belief that "value will ultimately prevail" remains entrenched, despite evidence that growth strategies have outperformed passive indices over the long term [14][15]. - The past decade has seen a significant deviation from Graham's observations, with high-growth stocks yielding substantial returns, contrary to his predictions [18][19]. Group 3: Case Studies - Microsoft serves as a prime example of a company that has achieved remarkable long-term growth, with revenue increasing from $60 billion in 2008 to $110 billion in 2018, showcasing a compound annual growth rate of 24% [20]. - Google also exemplifies this trend, with its revenue growing from $21.8 billion in 2008 to $136.8 billion in 2018, reflecting the potential of high-growth companies to deliver exceptional returns [21]. - The article contrasts Coca-Cola's stagnation in stock value over the past 20 years with Facebook's growth trajectory, suggesting that the latter may align more closely with modern investment principles [70][75]. Group 4: Future Investment Landscape - The future of investing will likely be shaped by structural changes in the global economy, necessitating a shift in focus from short-term financial metrics to long-term transformative trends [40][41]. - The concept of "creative destruction" is becoming increasingly relevant, indicating that traditional investment strategies may need to adapt to a rapidly changing economic environment [41][42]. - Companies that can leverage network effects and platform positions may exhibit "super-linear growth," challenging traditional value investment assumptions [61][62].
2025中国企业家年会探讨智能商业新形态
Bei Ke Cai Jing· 2025-12-08 05:12
Core Insights - The 2025 (23rd) Influence Entrepreneur Annual Conference was held in Beijing, focusing on the theme "Emergence·Infinity - Co-creating a New Form of Intelligent Business" [1] - Over 100 prominent entrepreneurs participated in nearly 60 discussions, addressing topics such as the rise of artificial intelligence, changes in consumer environments, and how to discover new growth drivers [1][2] - The conference emphasized the transformative impact of artificial intelligence on various industries, highlighting the need for entrepreneurs to rethink value creation and organizational structures [2][7] Group 1: Artificial Intelligence and Business Transformation - The conference theme aligns with the national strategy to implement "Artificial Intelligence+" actions, which aims to accelerate scientific discovery and promote intelligent upgrades in enterprises [2] - Discussions highlighted that AI is reshaping the economic landscape and business logic at an unprecedented pace, necessitating a transformation in corporate strategies and cultures [7] - The emergence of various AI applications, particularly in the transition from large model technologies to intelligent agents, was a focal point of the discussions [6] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a dual advancement of oil and electric vehicles, with a notable acceleration in intelligence and export capabilities [3] - The low-altitude economy is transitioning from concept to reality, with discussions on the commercialization of low-altitude scenarios such as logistics and travel [4] - The global expansion of Chinese enterprises is evolving into a comprehensive output of technology ecosystems, value concepts, and global responsibilities [4] Group 3: Cultural Confidence and Corporate Governance - Cultural confidence is closely linked to effective corporate governance, with discussions on how to integrate cultural values into business operations [5] - Entrepreneurs shared experiences on how personal decisions can significantly impact company trajectories and individual destinies [5] - The importance of internal focus and innovation in navigating the complexities of the current global economic landscape was emphasized [8]
“2025还没正式结束,2026已经露出獠牙”
3 6 Ke· 2025-12-08 02:36
"我觉得每一家车企,谁都是战战兢兢,谁都想行稳致远。一年前,我们很难想到现在的变化,一年后也很难想到,我觉得变局特别多。唯一敢确定的 是,竞争会更加残酷和血腥。" 11月20日小鹏X9增程版上市发布会后,有媒体问到对于明年格局的看法,上述一段话便是何小鹏给出的回答。 三季度财报发布后第二天的媒体沟通会上,李斌也被抛出类似的问题,很快给出了他的观点:"我同意小鹏总的说法,每一年中国车市的竞争强度,其实 都是在递增的,哪一年不血腥?哪一年不残酷?或许要到2035年,格局才能真正意义上的稳定下来。" 结合他们二者的输出,能够提炼出最核心的中心思想直指:"无论合资也好,自主也罢,所有主机厂请放弃幻想,明年的厮杀只会更激烈。" 最近一段时间,参与了多场新势力造车高管专访。 一方面,由衷地为各家逐步迈入正轨感到开心;另一方面,也从各位掌舵者的口中,感受到了来自终端巨大的压力与挑战。 身处中国车市,绝不允许掉以轻心。而今天这篇文章,试图用比较碎片化的一些的信息,拼凑出对于明年中国车市的几点看法。 实际上,按照目前已知的产品规划,每一个细分市场,几乎都会被一款款新品填满。就拿大六座SUV板块为例,本以为今年疯狂涌入十几位"后 ...
明年买车,赚到了,刹车偷偷升级了
3 6 Ke· 2025-12-08 02:36
作为汽车安全的"最后一道防线",汽车刹车系统一直备受争议,这些年的"单踏板之争",纠结的也都是安全这个议题。毕竟,刹车系统的安全性,直接决 定着能否避免某些意外事故,守护驾乘安全。 EHB(也就是电子液压制动系统)作为"过渡性方案",逻辑上比传统方案更具安全性,毕竟有了电子控制单元,可以实现单轮制动力精准分配了,集成 ABS、ESP 等主动安全功能之后,复杂路况下的制动稳定性有所提升。 不过,EHB 毕竟还在液压体系的范畴里,管路维护成本高、轻量化效果有限是其一,而且得配备冗余备份系统应对电控故障,安全隐患还是比较大。 而 EMB 就不一样了,这个技术其实就是全线控制动技术。它彻底摒弃了传统液压管路,核心逻辑是"电机直驱"。也就是每个车轮配备独立驱动电机,踏 板信号经电子控制单元处理后,直接指令电机通过减速机构驱动制动卡钳,完成制动力输出。 不过,明年开始,可能大家就不需要纠结刹车安全这件事了,因为,线控制动这个技术被新国标开了"绿灯",可能要"上车"了。而如果真是这样,明年刹 车可能真会迎来史诗级更新。 那么,EMB 到底是什么?这种线控制动技术如果普遍用在汽车上,对咱们老百姓来说,会不会安全升级呢?接下来 ...
理想“背水一战”:MEGA召回、L系列滞销,百亿研发能否换来“具身智能”未来?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-08 02:14
文|海山来源|博望财经 理想汽车正面临自成立以来最严峻的考验。 近日,理想汽车(02015.hk)发布了三季度财报,公司营收273.65亿元,同比跌36%;净亏 损6.24亿元,连续11个季度的盈利纪录被终结。令人担忧的是,公司预计第四季度交付量将 将继续走低,同比下降37%至30.7%。 在财报电话会上,公司CEO李想称,"我们经历了产品周期、公共关系舆论、供应链加速和 政策变化带来的各种挑战。这些因素也影响了我们的交付和运营。"同时他宣布将全面回归 创业公司模式。 作为中国造车新势力中一直被视为"优等生"的理想汽车,究竟遭遇了何种困境?其未来的发 展走向又将如何?值得关注。 遭遇销量、收入双降 11月26日,理想汽车公布三季报,在连续11个季度盈利后,再度出现亏损。财报显示,第三 季度,理想汽车营收273.65亿元,同比下滑36.2%;利润表现则有些惨淡,由去年同期的 28.21亿元变为净亏损6.24亿元。 01 | | | 截至以下日期止三個月 | | 百分比變動。 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2024 年 | 2025 年 | 2025 ...
AI眼镜取代不了手机,它想“干掉”传统眼镜
3 6 Ke· 2025-12-08 00:50
当下AI眼镜并不想取代手机,而是靠智能"干掉"传统眼镜。 就在刚刚过去的两个月,中国市场已经上市了20款AI眼镜。其中,既有大厂如百度、联想、夸克(阿里),也有创业公司如Rokid和影目科技,还有传统 眼镜商BOLON和李白(慧明眼镜)。 如果说,这些背景迥异的AI眼镜有什么共同点,那就是找到了目标用户:日常戴眼镜的那批人。或者说,AI眼镜找到了产品支点:先做一副好眼镜。 在这些眼镜的上市消息中,不少人都曾经在采访中提到一个美好的画卷:现在全球的手机用户是5亿,而全球戴眼镜的人有20亿。 近视人士买AI眼镜的决策过程确实更简单:不少人配镜已经往大几百甚至千元的价位靠拢,多加一部分钱,让自己的眼镜也变成智能硬件。 逻辑非常合理,这个市场太大了! "未来,人人都需要一副AI眼镜。"阿里集团副总裁、智能信息事业群总裁吴嘉在夸克眼镜发布会上表示。 夸克在上个月底,刚刚发布了自己的AI眼镜。这一轮"百镜大战",其实去年下半年已经开始白热化。入局者也远不止传统手机厂商,目前看来,主要有五 类参与者: 第一是手机厂,比如华为、小米、魅族; 第二是互联网巨头,阿里、字节、百度等; 第三则是以前就在做AR眼镜的"老将",比如R ...
中国电动车专家电话会-2026 年本土需求与出口展望速览-China Auto_EV Expert call_ outlook for local demand and exports in 2026E Quick Note
2025-12-08 00:41
Summary of the Expert Call on China Auto/EV Market Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Auto/EV - **Focus**: Local demand and exports outlook for 2026E Key Takeaways 1. **Declining Market Demand**: Market demand has been on a declining trend since late October 2025, primarily due to the expiration of national subsidies [1][2][3] 2. **Subsidy Standards**: There is a likelihood of higher standards for subsidies in 2026E to ensure healthy growth, despite anticipated impacts on demand [1][2] 3. **Export Focus**: Exports are expected to become a key focus for Chinese OEMs to mitigate the effects of a potentially muted local market [1][2][10] 4. **Battery and Technology Trends**: The trend towards larger batteries and increased intellectualization in vehicles will be significant as the industry aims for high-quality growth [1][11] Market Dynamics 1. **Order Trends**: Orders have been declining since mid-late October 2025, with a notable slump in November as customers await national subsidies [3][4] 2. **OEM Performance**: Weekly orders for major OEMs have decreased, with BYD at less than 70k units and Geely at less than 30k units for its Galaxy brand [4] 3. **EV Penetration Rate**: The discount ratio for ICE car models is decreasing, leading to a record-high monthly EV penetration rate, expected to exceed 60% in November 2025 [5] Policy Outlook 1. **Tightening Policies**: A tightening policy is anticipated for 2026, with potential continuation of trade-in/scrapping policies until the end of 2027E [6][8] 2. **Subsidy Adjustments**: Future trade-in subsidies may be based on a percentage of the average selling price (ASP) of vehicles, potentially reducing discounts for lower-end models [6][8] Competitive Landscape 1. **Impact of EV Tax Exemption**: The reduction of the EV purchase tax exemption in 2026 may slightly benefit ICE models, while upgraded hybrid cars could challenge low-end PHEV models [9] 2. **Luxury Brand Challenges**: Luxury brands are facing significant challenges, with many BMW dealerships closing and shifting focus towards NEV players [9] Export Strategies 1. **Government Support for Exports**: The Chinese government is encouraging exports, with many OEMs expanding their international presence [10] 2. **Global Market Expansion**: BYD, Chery, and Geely have established over 1,000 shops in overseas markets, while Leapmotor and XPENG are also increasing their international footprint [10] Future Trends 1. **Technological Advancements**: The focus will shift from price wars to technology and platform upgrades, with large-size batteries and advanced intelligent features becoming essential for competitiveness [11] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the expert call regarding the future of the China auto market, highlighting both challenges and opportunities as the industry navigates through changing demand dynamics and policy landscapes.
A股申购 | “宁德时代战略供应商商纳百川开启申购 从事新能源车动力电池热管理产品研发
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-07 22:41
招股书披露,纳百川专注从事新能源汽车动力电池热管理、燃油汽车动力系统热管理及储能电池热管理相关产品的研发、生 产和销售,主要产品包括电池液冷板、电池集成箱体、燃油汽车发动机散热器、加热器暖风等。 在新能源汽车动力电池热管理领域,公司于2012年起即与宁德时代开展合作研发,是宁德时代的战略供应商,产品配套供应 T公司、蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车、理想汽车、哪吒汽车、零跑汽车、吉利汽车、长安汽车、广汽集团、长城汽车、上汽荣威、 东风日产、奔驰、大众、奇瑞汽车、赛力斯等多家汽车品牌。 智通财经APP获悉,12月8日,纳百川(301667.SZ)开启申购,发行价格为22.63元/股,申购上限为0.65万股,市盈率28.7倍, 属于深交所,浙商证券为其保荐机构。 纳百川于招股书中提示经营活动现金流为负的风险。报告期各期,公司经营活动产生的现金流量净额分别为2,048.73万元、 11,131.50万元、3,877.05万元、-5,652.75万元,由于2024年第四季度以来,公司生产销售规模大幅增长、采购支出增长,受 开立银行承兑汇票支付保证金等短期因素影响,支付其他与经营活动有关的现金较高,导致2024年度经营活动产生的现金 ...
A股申购 | “宁德时代战略供应商商纳百川(301667.SZ)开启申购 从事新能源车动力电池热管理产品研发
智通财经网· 2025-12-07 22:36
财务方面,于2022年、2023年及2024年,公司实现营业收入分别约为10.31亿元、11.36亿元、14.37亿元人民币;同期净利润 分别约为1.13亿元、9825.49万元、9542.88万元人民币。 智通财经APP获悉,12月8日,纳百川(301667.SZ)开启申购,发行价格为22.63元/股,申购上限为0.65万股,市盈率28.7倍, 属于深交所,浙商证券为其保荐机构。 招股书披露,纳百川专注从事新能源汽车动力电池热管理、燃油汽车动力系统热管理及储能电池热管理相关产品的研发、生 产和销售,主要产品包括电池液冷板、电池集成箱体、燃油汽车发动机散热器、加热器暖风等。 在新能源汽车动力电池热管理领域,公司于2012年起即与宁德时代开展合作研发,是宁德时代的战略供应商,产品配套供应 T公司、蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车、理想汽车、哪吒汽车、零跑汽车、吉利汽车、长安汽车、广汽集团、长城汽车、上汽荣威、 东风日产、奔驰、大众、奇瑞汽车、赛力斯等多家汽车品牌。 纳百川在招股书中指出,2025年1-9月,预计公司营业收入较2024年1-9月增长22.26%至35.18%,归属于母公司所有者净利润 较2024年1-9月增长1 ...
日产N6、别克至境世家、新款蓝电E5上市!小鹏联手华为推出下一代增程发电机!多款新车登录工信部!11月车企销量公布!丨一周大事件
电动车公社· 2025-12-07 16:05
关注 「电动车公社」 和我们一起重新思考汽车 以下是上周新能源圈的新闻: 新车上 市: 东风日产N6上市,限时权益价9.19-12.19万元; 新款蓝电E5 Plus上市,限时权益价11.98万元; 别克至境世家上市,售价43.99-46.99万元; 公司动态: 小米汽车累计交付突破50万辆; 小鹏联手华为推出下一代增程发电机; 长安汽车第3000万辆新车即将下线; 多款新车登录工信部; 比亚迪11月乘用车销量474921台; 吉利汽车11月新能源销量187798台; 长安汽车11月新能源销量超12.5万台; 上汽通用五菱11月新能源销量118726台; 奇瑞11月新能源销量116794台; 鸿蒙智行11月交付81864台; 零跑汽车11月交付70327台; 长城汽车11月新能源销量40113台; 小米汽车11月交付超40000台; 小鹏汽车11月交付36728台; 埃安11月销量36288台; 蔚来公司11月交付36275台; 理想汽车11月交付33181台; 深蓝汽车11月全球交付33060台; 北汽新能源11月销量32328台; 岚图汽车11月交付20005台; 一汽奔腾11月新能源销量15793台; ...