国防军工 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 (8621)23297818× dasw@swsresearch.com 2025 年 06 月 23 日 地缘政治不确定性提升估值，季报 预期逐步落地促发反转 看好 —— 国防军工行业周报（2025 年第 26 周） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 本周申万国防军工指数下跌 2.01%，中证军工龙头指数下跌 2.83%，同期上证综指下 跌 0.51%，沪深 300 下跌 0.45%，创业板指下跌 1.66%，申万国防军工指数跑输创 业板指、跑输沪深 300、跑输上证综指、跑赢军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，本 周国防军工板块 2.01%的跌幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 17 位。2、从我们构 建的军工集团 ...

消息面上，据央视新闻报道，伊朗议会国家安全委员会委员库萨里表示，伊朗议会已得出结 论， 认为应关闭霍尔木兹海峡 ，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委员会手中。 早盘WTI 原油主力期货一度涨超6%。 摩根大通预测，若霍尔木兹海峡被封锁，油价可能飙升至120— 130美元区间。 （→ 美国打击伊朗核设施，卫星图曝光！原油大涨，黄金高开 ） 申万宏源认为，短期A股风险偏好回落，自上而下的叙事有所弱化，短期有休整需要，但跌不 深是一致预期，对应短期防御类资产有绝对收益。 国泰海通证券表示，全球地缘政治格局加速演变，外贸有望打开军工行业新的增长极，推荐 产品或业务与出口密切相关企业。分析认为，在大国博弈加剧的背景下，加大国防投入是当 今时代的必选项，内需和外贸有望驱动军工行业高景气度，保持发展趋势长期向好。 信达证券认为，市场在6—7月可能还会有震荡回撤，不过幅度可控。三季度后期或四季度， 盈利、政策和居民资金三个因素中，只要有一个往乐观方向转变，市场有望回归牛市状态。 现货黄金失守3 3 6 0美元/盎司 6月23日，A股指数低开，三大股指一度飘红。截至10:40，约3500股上涨。 板块上，油气、航运、军工涨幅居前 ...

Group 1 - The A-share military industry sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant gains in various companies [1] - Great Wall Military Industry has reached its daily limit increase, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Guankong Technology has risen over 10%, showcasing robust performance in the sector [1] Group 2 - Aerospace Development has increased by more than 8%, reflecting positive market sentiment [1] - Other companies such as Aerospace Changfeng and Leike Defense are also seeing gains, contributing to the overall strength of the military sector [1]

摘要 / A股震荡下跌原因大揭秘 周末热点之一，美国打击伊朗核设施，还真是下场了！明天油气是不是又有得炒 了！ 据TankerTrackers.com的数据显示，从6月13日袭击开始后的5天内，伊朗原油 日均出口量达到了233万桶，比6月14日之前的年均水平高出44%。 东吴证券指出，前期量化资金抱团微盘股已显现出一定的瓦解迹象，若存量博弈 格局延续，量化资金仍将占据主导地位，但其配置策略上会减少市值暴露，需警 惕小微盘的短期回调风险。 配置上，东吴证券指出，创新药、新消费等热门主题短期可能已经到达阶段性顶 部。后续配置方面，建议关注业绩预期明朗，筹码、位置更具优势的泛科技方 向。 主要聊下A股周四、周五为什么下跌吧！ 看了好多策略周报，除了外围压制风险偏好外，内部宏观叙事走弱、资金止盈新 消费、微盘股等，导致赚钱效应变差，资金进一步流出。 国泰海通直接说，看似是中东，更合理的解释在于前期创新药、新消费等主题交 易已较为拥挤，市场借利空调整优化交易结构。 我再贴下申万宏源的全面分析： 1. 市场担心国内经济主要矛盾切换，可能有支撑力空窗期：6月港口数据率先回 落，"抢出口"提前走弱(市场基准预期是持续到7月) ...

明日主题前瞻 1、钴 | 刚果（金）公布，2025年6月21日起，战略矿产市场监管局(ARECOMS)董事会采取了重大监管措施，鉴于市场上库存量持续高企，已决定将临时禁 令的期限自本决定生效之日起再延长三个月，适用于刚果所有源自采矿的钴出口，无论其来自工业、半工业、小规模还是手工开采。2025年2月22日当地出 台暂停钴出口的第001/ARECOMS/2025号决定。 点评：USGS数据显示，2024年全球钴矿产量约为28.8万金属吨，其中刚果（金）钴矿产量约为22万金属吨，同比增长约25%，全球市场占比达到76.4%。随 着本次钴原料禁令再次延长3个月，刚果（金）禁止钴原料出口时间达7个月，至少将影响今年全球钴原料供应达10万金属吨以上，或将造成国内钴原料供应 短缺的局面。国信证券认为，从全年维度来看，对钴价持乐观态度，预计国内电钴价格有望重回25万元/吨上方运行。另外从长期来看，刚果（金）可能实 施钴出口配额来提升对于钴的定价权，钴价中枢有望抬升。 2、跨境支付 | 6月22日，"跨境支付通"正式上线，标志着内地与香港快速支付系统已实现互联互通，今后两地居民可实时办理跨境汇款。当日，全国首笔跨 境支付通内 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to May, the national securities transaction stamp duty reached 66.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.4% [1] - The total public budget revenue for the same period was 96,623 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, with tax revenue down by 1.6% [1] - Non-tax revenue increased by 6.2% year-on-year, amounting to 17,467 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce announced that from January to May, actual foreign investment in China was 358.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.2% [2] - The manufacturing sector attracted 91.52 billion yuan, while the service sector attracted 259.64 billion yuan [2] - High-tech industries saw significant growth in foreign investment, with e-commerce services up by 146% and aerospace manufacturing by 74.9% [2] Group 3 - The State Administration for Market Regulation plans to conduct national supervision and sampling inspections on 164 products this year, covering over 16,000 batches [3] - The focus will include children's products and online sales products, with a significant increase in inspection batches compared to 2024 [3] Group 4 - The People's Bank of China introduced a cross-border payment system to facilitate efficient remittances between mainland China and Hong Kong [4][5] - Initial participating banks include major institutions from both regions, with plans to expand the participant list [4][5] Group 5 - The National Development and Reform Commission promoted over 3,200 private investment projects, with a total investment exceeding 3 trillion yuan [6] - The projects focus on key areas such as transportation, energy, and environmental protection [6] Group 6 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the registration of pure benzene futures and options, aiming for a smooth launch and stable operation [8] - The commission also issued administrative penalties for insider trading, with fines totaling approximately 60 million yuan [8] Group 7 - The company Tom Cat announced a collaboration with Yushutech to integrate voice control capabilities between their AI robot and robotic dog [17] - This partnership aims to enhance the functionality of companion robots for various applications, including elderly care [17] Group 8 - Nvidia is in talks with Foxconn to deploy humanoid robots in a new factory in Houston, Texas, for the production of AI servers [14][15] - This would mark the first instance of Nvidia's products being manufactured with the assistance of humanoid robots [14][15] Group 9 - The company Longcheng Military Industry experienced a stock price increase of 37.06% over a short period, raising concerns about potential future declines [25] - The company confirmed that its operational activities remain normal despite the stock price fluctuations [25] Group 10 - The company Ningbo Huaxiang expects a net loss of 273 million to 369 million yuan for the first half of 2025 due to the impact of divesting its European business [27] - The loss represents a significant decline compared to a profit of 534 million yuan in the same period last year [27] Group 11 - The company Changshan Pharmaceutical received approval for clinical trials of a new drug aimed at weight loss, utilizing innovative drug delivery technology [28] - This drug is designed to stimulate insulin secretion and suppress appetite, targeting diabetes management [28]

Group 1 - The National Medical Products Administration has approved measures to optimize the lifecycle regulation to support the innovation and development of high-end medical devices [1] - The People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will jointly launch a cross-border payment system, set to go live on June 22, 2025 [2] - The Ministry of Finance reported a 28.8% increase in tax revenue from the railway, shipping, and aerospace manufacturing industries from January to May, while the information transmission, software, and IT services sector saw a 10% increase [4] Group 2 - Lianqi Technology plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5] - Nord Technology, which has seen a four-day stock increase, reported that revenue from its copper foil business in the solid-state battery sector accounts for less than 1% of total revenue [5] - Changcheng Military Industry, which has experienced a three-day stock increase, stated that its production and operational activities are currently normal [5] - Changshan Pharmaceutical has received approval for clinical trials of Abenanide injection for weight loss indications [5]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is seeking public opinions on the revised draft of the "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations" to optimize the classification evaluation system for securities companies [2] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that from January to May 2025, the number of newly established foreign-invested enterprises reached 24,018, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, while the actual use of foreign capital amounted to 358.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.2% [7] - The People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority launched the "Cross-Border Payment Link," which will enhance cross-border payment efficiency and service levels between the mainland and Hong Kong, set to go live on June 22, 2025 [4] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to May 2025, the national fiscal revenue totaled 966.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3%, with tax revenue at 791.56 billion yuan, down 1.6% [6] - The National Medical Products Administration approved measures to support the innovation and development of high-end medical devices, including optimizing special approval procedures and enhancing post-market supervision [10] - The CSRC announced that starting from October 9, qualified foreign institutional investors will be allowed to trade a total of 100 futures and options products, including all 9 ETF options listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [5]

中东地缘局势升温，A股军工股频频躁动。 今日午后，光力科技、江龙船艇20CM涨停，长城军工、中京电子、川润股份等纷纷涨停。 其中，长城军工斩获3连板，最新价18.36元，成交额19.95亿元，换手率15.52%，目前总市值132.97亿元。 近3个交易日，该股累计上涨33.14%。 从资金流向方面看，今日主力资金净流入2195.99万元，占成交比1.1%。 游资资金净流出6228.0万元，占总成交额3.12%；散户资金净流入4032.01万元，占总成交额2.02%。 公开资料显示，公司下属四家军品子公司均属重点军工企业，在迫击炮弹、单兵火箭等弹药武器装备领域占据重要地位。 长城军工主营业务分为军品业务与民品业务两部分，但以军品业务为主。 其中包括迫击炮弹系列、光电对抗系列、单兵火箭系列、引信系列、子弹药系列、火工品系列的研究、设计、生产、总装和销售。 今年一季度，长城军工营收1.48亿元，同比上升5.09%；归母净利润亏损5425.34万元，同比下降55.14%。 在连续被市场热炒后，长城军工日前也发布了风险提示。 3连板背后 近来，军工板块热度高涨。 长城军工在这轮行情中表现不俗的背后，除了受外围地缘冲突助 ...

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 证券代码：601606 证券简称：长城军工 公告编号：2025-025 安徽长城军工股份有限公司 股票交易风险提示公告 三、其他风险提示 1 / 2 公司董事会确认，截至本公告披露日，除已披露事项外，公司没有任何根据 《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》(以下简称为"《股票上市规则》")等有关规定应 披露而未披露的事项或与该等事项有关的筹划、商谈、意向、协议等，董事会也 未获悉根据《股票上市规则》等有关规定应披露而未披露的对本公司股票及其衍 生品种交易价格可能产生较大影响的信息;公司前期披露的信息不存在需要更正、 补充之处。 ● 安徽长城军工股份有限公司（以下简称"长城军工"或"公司"）股票于2025 年6月17日至6月20日期间累计涨幅达到37.06%，累计换手率达到15.52%，上述指标均 远高于行业同期平均水平，公司已披露了《安徽长城军工股份有限公司股票异常交易 波动暨风险提示性公告》(公告编号:2025-024）。2025年6月17日至19日，公司股票涨 幅21 ...