出品：新浪财经创投Plus 编辑整理：易舍 据中国基金业协会数据显示，2026年1月新增登记的私募股权、创业投资基金管理人共8家，同比、环比均下降62.5%；月内已注销的私募股权、创业投资基 金管理人共38家，超六成为主动注销；新增备案私募股权投资基金、创业投资基金分别为140只、408只，合计新增548只，与2025年12月相比减少20.6%， 较2025年同期显著增长66.1%。 投资端呈现出相似趋势。基于公开数据不完全统计，1月国内一级市场共发生644起股权投资事件，披露投资金额总和约为529.99亿元，对比2025年同期分别 增长2.1%、55.5%，较2025年年末分别减少16.1%、11.1%。1月平均单笔投资额约为8229.59万元，同比、环比分别增长52.5%、6.0%。 值得关注的是，AI基础大模型独角兽「阶跃星辰」完成超50亿元B+轮融资，刷新近一年内同赛道单笔最高融资纪录。旷视科技创始人、千里科技董事长印 奇出任公司董事长，负责整体战略节奏与技术方向制定。该笔标志性大额投资金额约占本月披露投资总额9.4%。 从阶段分布来看，早期阶段的种子轮、天使轮和Pre-A轮投资事件共有261起，约占 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，美元兑人民币小幅贬值，主要航线海运费同比继续下滑;美 国餐饮RPI环比下降，美国住房市场指数环比承压。建议重点关注具备全球制造布局、品牌输出能力与 渠道整合优势的出口型消费企业。在当前外部环境变化与政策博弈背景下，具备产能多元化配置、稳定 客户黏性及定价权的企业，有望在全球贸易格局调整中实现持续成长。该行看好市场占有率高、供应链 韧性强、并已建立成熟海外产能的标的。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 成本跟踪 美元兑人民币汇率小幅贬值;欧洲航线、美东航线、美西航线、东南亚航线海运费同比下降。1)汇率： 2026年1月30日美元兑人民币即期汇率为6.95，环比1月23日上升1.30%;欧元兑人民币汇率为8.28，环比1 月23日+0.97%。2)海运费：2026年1月第四周中国出口集装箱运价指数(CCFI)中，综合指数为1175.59， 同比下降16.92%，环比下降2.74%;欧洲航线为1574.69，同比下降25.16%，环比上升0.35%;美东航线为 975.78，同比下降24.75%，环比下降0.37%;美西航线为867.79，同比下降27.60%，环比上升1.64%;东南 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the extension of the Spring Festival holiday in 2026 will continue to support strong demand for family visits and travel [2] - The 2024 Spring Festival holiday will be adjusted to 8 days, extending by 1 day compared to 2023, and encouraging time off from New Year's Eve [2] - The 2025 Spring Festival holiday will increase by 1 day, optimizing the adjustment principles, and the significant "拼假" effect will be evident [2] Group 2 - The expected cross-regional personnel flow during the 2026 Spring Festival is projected to reach 9.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of approximately 5.3%, setting a new historical high [3] - The railway is expected to send 539 million passengers, a 5.0% increase year-on-year, with passenger capacity also increasing by 5.3% [3] - The civil aviation sector anticipates a passenger transport volume of 95 million, a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, with Southern Airlines and Eastern Airlines expecting daily flight increases of 4.2% and 3.6% respectively [3] Group 3 - The 2026 Spring Festival travel demand is expected to be strong, with a gradual increase in passenger flow and ticket prices maintaining year-on-year growth [4] - The pre-holiday week will see a mix of business and travel passengers, with a confirmed peak in passenger flow before the holiday [4] - The average domestic ticket price is expected to continue rising, supported by high passenger load factors and market-driven pricing [4] Group 4 - The Chinese aviation industry is anticipated to enter a "super cycle," driven by market-driven pricing and a recovery in demand and passenger structure [5] - The long-term logic will provide dual space for performance valuation, with continuous positive feedback from fundamentals and seasonal performance catalyzing market optimism [5] - Recommendations include increasing holdings in major airlines such as Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [5]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese brokerage stocks have seen a rise in afternoon trading, with several firms reporting significant gains, driven by positive earnings forecasts and a favorable market environment [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Huatai Securities (601688) increased by 5.38%, reaching HKD 17.84 [1] - China International Capital Corporation (601995) rose by 4.58%, reaching HKD 21.92 [1] - Guotai Junan Securities (02611) gained 4.71%, reaching HKD 17.79 [1] - China Galaxy Securities (601881) increased by 2.71%, reaching HKD 10.62 [1] - China Merchants Securities (600999) rose by 2.32%, reaching HKD 14.54 [1] Group 2: Earnings Reports - As of the end of January, five listed brokerages, including CITIC Securities (600030), have released earnings reports for 2025, with 17 others providing performance forecasts, accounting for about 50% of all listed brokerages [1] - Collectively, these 22 brokerages are expected to report positive earnings, with eight firms anticipating a year-on-year increase in net profit exceeding 70% [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the brokerage sector is experiencing improving conditions, with a favorable external business environment [1] - The current phase is characterized by a mismatch between fundamentals and valuations, with diminishing pressure from funding [1] - Guotai Junan Securities highlights that the brokerage sector is likely to benefit from both performance and valuation improvements due to ongoing investment reforms [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of listed securities firms is showing high-quality growth for 2025, driven by improved market conditions, optimized business structures, and ongoing policy benefits [2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 4, 2026, the CSI All Share Securities Company Index (399975) rose by 1.16%, with notable increases in stocks such as Huayin Securities (up 6.23%) and Dongwu Securities (up 2.61%) [1] - The securities ETF Huaxia (515010) increased by 1.04%, attracting a total net inflow of 24.52 million yuan over the past three days [1] Group 2: Earnings Reports - By January 30, 2026, major firms like CITIC Securities reported a revenue of 74.83 billion yuan for the year, a year-on-year increase of 28.75%, and a net profit of 30.05 billion yuan, up 38.46% [1] - Guotai Junan is projected to achieve a net profit of 27.53 billion to 28.01 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of 111% to 115% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Growth Drivers - The growth of listed securities firms is attributed to three main factors: improved market conditions leading to increased trading volumes, ongoing optimization of business structures, and the release of policy benefits that enhance profitability [2] - The average daily trading volume of A-shares has increased, boosting commission income from brokerage services, while the balance of margin financing has steadily expanded, enhancing interest income from credit business [2] Group 4: ETF Details - The Huaxia Securities ETF has the lowest management fee rate of 0.15% and a custody fee rate of 0.05% among comparable funds [2] - As of February 3, 2026, the tracking error for the Huaxia Securities ETF over the past month was 0.004%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [2] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the index tracked by the Huaxia Securities ETF is 16.78, which is below 98.42% of the historical data over the past year, indicating a historically low valuation [2]

消息面上，近期券商密集发布业绩快报及预增报告。Wind统计显示，截至1月底，中信证券等5家上市 券商已披露2025年业绩快报，另有17家披露了当期业绩预告，合计占到上市券商总数的五成左右。整体 来看，上述22家券商业绩集体报喜，8家去年的归母净利润增幅预计超七成。 申万宏源认为，券商板块景气度不断向好，内外展业环境顺风顺水，关注板块Beta属性。当前时点，券 商板块处于基本面与估值错配阶段，且考虑资金面压制已经边际消退，建议关注券商板块自身的贝塔属 性。国泰海通证券指出，受益于投资端改革，券商业绩持续改善。年初以来市场持续活跃，券商板块有 望受益业绩与估值双升。 智通财经APP获悉，中资券商股午后走高，截至发稿，华泰证券(06886)涨5.38%，报17.84港元；中金公 司(03908)涨4.58%，报21.92港元；国泰海通(02611)涨4.71%，报17.79港元；中国银河(06881)涨2.71%， 报10.62港元；招商证券(06099)涨2.32%，报14.54港元。 ...

绪论 1.1 研究背景 近年来，中国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段，产业结构调整与新旧动能转换进入关键期。在复杂的全球 地缘政治格局与国内经济周期性调整的叠加影响下，大宗商品价格波动加剧，汇率与利率风险日益显现。在这一宏观 背景下，实体经济对于规避价格波动风险、实现稳健经营的需求显著增强。金融体系的使命已不再局限于传统的融资 支持，而是向"融资与风险管理并重"的功能深化。期货及衍生品市场作为现代金融体系的重要组成部分，其在价格发 现、风险管理和资源配置中的作用不断凸显，成为服务国家战略、保障产业链供应链安全的重要力量（Sun et.al， 2023；宋凌峰和叶翰章，2023；徐君和龚旭，2025）。 长期以来，我国期货市场曾被视为相对小众、以投机交易为主的市场。然而，随着监管制度持续完善、法治化建设不 断推进以及制度型开放的深入，期货市场的功能定位逐步回归并强化，市场在服务实体经济中的"减震器"和"稳压 器"作用日益得到认可（全国人民代表大会常务委员会，2022；卢米雪等，2021）。与此同时，市场工具体系持续丰 富、覆盖行业不断拓展，使得期货市场从单一的风险对冲场所，逐渐演变为大类资产配置的重要组成 ...

Group 1 - A-shares brokerage stocks have shown strong performance, with Huayin Securities rising over 7% and Dongwu Securities increasing over 3% [1] - Other notable gainers include Huaxin Securities, Guotai Haitong, and Southwest Securities, each rising over 2% [1] Group 2 - Huayin Securities has a market capitalization of 51.7 billion and a year-to-date increase of 24.85% [2] - Dongwu Securities has a market capitalization of 47.3 billion and a year-to-date increase of 4.97% [2] - Huaxin Securities has a market capitalization of 18.1 billion and a year-to-date increase of 12.01% [2] - Guotai Haitong has a market capitalization of 352.4 billion but a year-to-date decrease of 2.73% [2] - Southwest Securities has a market capitalization of 30.4 billion and a year-to-date increase of 2.23% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the median data shows that the profit performance of computer companies in 2025 is expected to outperform revenue [1] - Among the 238 companies that released performance forecasts, only 70 provided revenue data, with a median revenue growth rate of 0.97%. In contrast, the median growth rate for net profit attributable to shareholders is 17.83%, and for non-recurring net profit, it is 28.68% [1] - Large-cap companies tend to lean towards the growth side in performance statistics, with stronger certainty in fourth-quarter performance [1] Group 2 - In 2025, over half of the computer industry performance forecasts are positive, indicating a polarization between growth and decline [2] - Among the 358 computer companies, 238 released performance forecasts, representing 66.5%. The distribution of expected net profit growth rates shows that 42.9% (103 companies) expect growth of over 30%, while 36.3% (87 companies) anticipate a decline of over 30% [2] - The high-growth and significant decline segments combined account for 79.2% of the companies, with 60% (142 companies) expecting growth and 40% (96 companies) expecting decline [2] Group 3 - Among companies with a net profit of approximately 100 million and above, significant performance differentiation is observed [3] - Companies with clear improvements in performance and expected year-on-year growth of over 30% include Tonghuashun, Daotong Technology, and iFLYTEK, among others [3] - Conversely, companies facing profit pressure with year-on-year declines include Bosi Software and Keyuan Wisdom, with the latter showing nearly 40% growth when excluding impairment losses [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's Listing Review Committee approved Hangzhou Aike Technology Co., Ltd.'s refinancing, confirming it meets issuance, listing, and information disclosure requirements [1] Group 1: Financing and Projects - Aike Technology plans to issue convertible bonds to raise up to RMB 26,695.40 million, which will be fully invested in two projects: the New Intelligent Equipment Industrialization Base Project and the Fuyang Intelligent Cutting Equipment Production Line Upgrade Project [2][3] - The total investment for the New Intelligent Equipment Industrialization Base Project is RMB 22,572.17 million, while the Fuyang project requires RMB 4,123.22 million [3] - The convertible bonds will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with each bond having a face value of RMB 100 [3][4] Group 2: Regulatory and Compliance - The Listing Committee raised questions regarding the necessity and feasibility of the new projects, including their performance characteristics, technological advancement, and market risks [2] - The company must clarify the internal decision-making process for the financing gap and the rationale for future overseas investment plans [2]