Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 81, indicating an "overheated" market condition, which suggests a high level of investor optimism [6][10][22] - Historical trends show that when the sentiment score is below or close to 30, the market tends to find support, while scores above 90 may indicate resistance [10] Hot Themes Tracking - **Robotics Theme**: The government is promoting entrepreneurship, with significant contracts awarded in the robotics sector, including a project worth 124 million yuan for humanoid biped robots [7] - **RDA Theme**: The introduction of the RDA (Real Data Asset) paradigm emphasizes the integration of data with physical assets, enhancing their authenticity and value [7] - **Hydropower Theme**: A major hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River has commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, highlighting its strategic importance [7] Capital Flow Analysis - The top net inflow stocks include GoerTek (46.59 million yuan), CATL (46.27 million yuan), and Great Wall Military Industry (46.27 million yuan), indicating strong investor interest in these companies [11] - The top net outflow stocks include Construction Industrial (-66.24 million yuan) and Shenghong Technology (-62.40 million yuan), reflecting investor caution towards these companies [13] Industry Insights - The report highlights significant capital movements across various industries, with the electronics and medical sectors showing strong net inflows, while industries like construction and non-bank financials are experiencing notable outflows [17][18][20]

Market Overview - On July 22, A-shares saw collective gains across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.62% to close at 3581.86 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.84% to 11099.83 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.61% to 2310.86 points [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 192.86 billion yuan, an increase of 20.15 billion yuan from the previous day, with over 2500 stocks rising and more than 100 stocks hitting the daily limit for the second consecutive day [2] Sector Performance - The sectors that performed well included hydropower, engineering machinery, coal, steel, pork, and liquor, while sectors such as gaming, banking, and PCB concepts saw declines [2] - Specifically, the coal sector experienced a rapid increase in the afternoon, while the banking sector mostly adjusted downwards [2] International Market - In the U.S. stock market on July 22, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 179.37 points (0.4%) to 44502.44 points, while the S&P 500 increased by 4.02 points (0.06%) to 6309.62 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 81.49 points (0.39%) to 20892.69 points [4][5] - In Europe, the FTSE 100 index rose by 10.82 points (0.12%) to 9023.81 points, while the CAC 40 index in France fell by 53.81 points (0.69%) to 7744.41 points, and the DAX index in Germany decreased by 265.90 points (1.09%) to 24041.90 points [4][5] Commodity Prices - International oil prices fell on July 22, with WTI crude oil dropping by $0.99 to $66.21 per barrel (1.47% decline) and Brent crude oil decreasing by $0.62 to $68.59 per barrel (0.90% decline) [4][5] Regulatory Developments - The "Rural Road Regulations" were published, set to take effect on September 15, 2025, aimed at promoting high-quality development of rural roads and supporting rural revitalization and agricultural modernization [6][7] - The regulations emphasize government-led planning, responsibility for county-level governments, and the need for improved road network quality and safety measures [6][7] Industry Initiatives - Shanghai's "Next-Generation Display Industry High-Quality Development Action Plan (2026-2030)" was issued, aiming to build a comprehensive industry system and enhance competitiveness by 2030 [9] - The plan focuses on developing two major technology routes and addressing four core areas to create a complete and resilient industrial chain [9] Gaming Industry - The National Press and Publication Administration approved seven imported games in July, indicating ongoing regulatory activity in the gaming sector [10] Foreign Exchange Market - The Deputy Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that there are no significant expectations for the appreciation or depreciation of the RMB, with the market remaining stable and rational [11] Financial Sector Insights - The People's Bank of China reported a rebound in real estate loan growth, with a total balance of real estate loans reaching 53.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [13] - The report highlighted an increase in both real estate development loans and personal housing loans, indicating a gradual recovery in the real estate sector [13] Institutional Perspectives - Tianfeng Securities noted a significant pullback in bank stock prices since July 11, but maintains a positive long-term outlook for bank valuations due to expected improvements in net interest margins and non-interest income [14] - CITIC Construction pointed out that China's controllable nuclear fusion industry is advancing rapidly, with ongoing project financing and policy support [15][16] Capital Flow - The coal industry saw a net inflow of 2.588 billion yuan, while the internet services sector experienced a net outflow of 4.759 billion yuan [18] - Major stocks with significant net inflows included Changcheng Military Industry and Guizhou Moutai, while Northern Rare Earth and Wolong Electric Drive faced substantial outflows [19]

Core Viewpoint - The fourth Synthetic Biology and Green Bio-Manufacturing Conference (SynBioCon 2025) will be held from August 20-22 in Ningbo, Zhejiang, focusing on five key areas: AI + Bio-Manufacturing, Green Chemistry and New Materials, Future Food, and Future Agriculture. The conference aims to explore the development trends of the bio-manufacturing industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan, innovations driven by AI, and the technologies and products that will sustain the vitality of the bio-manufacturing sector [1]. Organizers and Support Units - The conference is organized by Ningbo Detaizhong Research Information Technology Co., Ltd. (DT New Materials) and co-organized by institutions such as Peking University Ningbo Institute of Ocean Medicine and Ningbo Enzyme Science Bioengineering Co., Ltd. It is supported by various associations and alliances in the field of synthetic biology [2]. Expert Guests - Notable experts, including Zhang Xian'en, Dean of the School of Synthetic Biology at Shenzhen University of Technology, will serve as advisory experts for the conference. Zhang has significant credentials, including being a Fellow of the American Institute for Medical and Biological Engineering and the Royal Society of Chemistry [6][7][8]. Conference Agenda - The agenda includes a series of forums and discussions on topics such as green chemistry, AI in bio-manufacturing, and future food and agriculture. The first day features a macro forum on the bio-manufacturing industry, while subsequent days will host specialized forums and networking events [41]. Key Topics of Discussion - The conference will cover various innovative topics, including the construction of efficient cell factories for producing aromatic compounds, the biomanufacturing of polyamide materials, and advancements in enzyme engineering for low-carbon bio-manufacturing [13][15][32][34]. Networking and Collaboration - The event aims to facilitate technology transfer, product scaling, and talent acquisition within the bio-manufacturing industry, promoting collaboration among enterprises, research institutions, and government bodies [1]. Registration and Participation - Interested participants can register for the conference, which promises to be a significant event for stakeholders in the synthetic biology and bio-manufacturing sectors [42][44].

Summary of TDI and MDI Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the TDI (Toluene Diisocyanate) and MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate) industries, highlighting recent price trends and market dynamics. Key Points TDI Price Surge - TDI prices have increased significantly from approximately 9,000 CNY at the beginning of the year to around 12,500 CNY before a recent explosion incident, with current transaction prices exceeding 18,000 CNY, and quotes reaching as high as 20,000 CNY. However, large volume transactions are around 17,000 CNY and continue to rise [1][2][3] - The market tightness is exacerbated by maintenance at Wanhua's facilities in Fujian and Yantai, leading to limited supply [1][2] MDI Price Trends - MDI prices have also seen an increase, with aggregated MDI prices fluctuating between 14,000 CNY and 15,000 CNY earlier this year. Recent price adjustments due to upstream control and recovering demand have pushed prices to about 15,500 CNY for Juhua MDI and around 17,000 CNY for Covestro's pure MDI [1][3][4] - Wanhua announced a reduction in supply before the end of the month, further driving prices up [3] Market Outlook - The TDI market is expected to remain tight in the coming months, with anticipated demand increases in August. If supply does not significantly increase, prices may stay high, although whether mainstream transaction prices can reach 20,000 CNY remains uncertain [1][4] - For MDI, while there is potential for price increases, the extent is expected to be limited due to larger production capacity and sufficient profit margins [4] Inventory and Supply Chain Analysis - Current TDI factory inventory is approximately 12,000 tons, which is considered moderate historically. The lack of stockpiling by downstream channels has led to panic buying, driving prices up rapidly [2][9] - The TDI price increase is viewed as a short-term phenomenon, with current prices around 16,000 CNY being acceptable to downstream buyers. However, prices above 22,000 CNY may be challenging to sustain [2][12] Impact of Maintenance and External Factors - Wanhua's Hungarian facility is undergoing maintenance for 30 days, which will further tighten global supply and impact domestic pricing. This, combined with maintenance at other facilities, is likely to keep the TDI and MDI markets under pressure [5][18] - The explosion at a facility in Germany has delayed recovery efforts, potentially extending the timeline for supply normalization [2][8] Export Dynamics - Domestic demand has been weak, prompting an increase in exports to alleviate pressure on the domestic market. This includes targeting markets in Russia, Central Asia, and Turkey [10] - Wanhua's exports to North America have been significantly affected by trade tensions, with exports largely halted in May but showing signs of recovery [11] Profitability and Cost Analysis - Current TDI market prices allow domestic manufacturers to achieve net profit margins of 50% to 60%, while overseas manufacturers face lower margins due to higher operational costs [15] - MDI production costs are estimated to be around 10,000 CNY, with current transaction prices providing a healthy profit margin [21] Regulatory Environment - The ongoing anti-dumping investigation by the U.S. against Chinese MDI could impact export strategies, with companies likely to reduce shipments to North America to mitigate risks [22] Industry Response to Market Conditions - The industry is responding to "anti-involution" policies by raising prices, driven by supply constraints and increased demand [23] Conclusion - The TDI and MDI markets are experiencing significant price fluctuations due to supply chain disruptions, maintenance activities, and changing demand dynamics. The outlook remains cautious, with potential for continued price increases but also challenges in sustaining high price levels in the long term.

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to show strong performance, with the Chemical ETF (516020) rising by 2.33% and achieving a four-day consecutive increase [1] - Various sub-sectors such as explosives, fertilizers, petrochemicals, and polyurethane have performed well, with notable stocks like Yipuli and Luxi Chemical seeing gains of over 6% [3] - The basic chemical sector has attracted significant capital inflow, with a net inflow of 4.767 billion yuan on the day and a cumulative inflow of 23.95 billion yuan over the past five trading days, ranking second among 30 major sectors [3][4] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy has been emphasized by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, aiming to promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity in key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [4][5] - The current market conditions may present a favorable opportunity for investment in the chemical sector, with the chemical ETF's price-to-book ratio at 2.03, indicating a low valuation compared to the past decade [5] - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and boosting consumer confidence are expected to enhance demand for chemical products, while the current expansion cycle in the chemical industry may be nearing its end [8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-07-22 ⻛险偏好上移 股指期货：温和上攻 股指期权：红利及小盘情绪上方空间更高 国债期货：风险偏好提升压制债市表现 股指期货方面，周一市场温和上攻，沪指稳步站上3550点关口，反内 卷交易延续成为市场主线，其中建材、建筑、钢铁、电新等领涨，反内卷 方向有扩散化的迹象。另外需要注意的是，银行板块近日连续下跌，这一 现象有几种解释路径，其一，沪指破位重要指数关口之后，按照历史经验 外推会呈现成长补涨的格局，其二，景气度交易再起，近年常被提及的哑 铃结构受到挑战，资金集中涌入景气度反转或是景气度快速提升的领域， 使得市值因子的重要度边际下降。当下我们暂时倾向转向后者的可能性， 在政策主线明确之后，资金针对基本面环境纠偏，公募等中长期资金定价 权提升。展望后市，目前仍建议布局IM多单，除了Beta因素之外，不排除 贴水收敛的可能性。 股指期权方面，期权市场成交额53.98亿元，相较前一交易日下降14. 72%，但仍维持近段时间整体的高流动性。情绪指标方面，持仓量PCR多数 品种延续上行，部分品种如沪市300ETF、创业板E ...

杠杆资金净流入创2月下旬以来新高，IPO大幅回暖 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报 2025年7月22日 证券分析师:姚佩 联系人:朱冬墨 执业编号: S0360522120004 邮箱:zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 该告仅样够加及养南喷责任公司的客户使用。本公司不会因傻切人收到体报告而视真为客户、华创证券对这些信息的唯职单和完整也不作任何例证。报告中的内容和周见仅供参考，并不知成本公司对所述汇券买 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 部箱: yaopei@hcyjs.com 1 Felit > 证券研究报告 核心结论 资金流动性: . 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号:证监许可（2009）1210 号 2）资金需求端IPO大幅回暖处近三年96%分位，南向资金连续九周维持周均规模百亿以上净流入，累计净流入近 交易拥挤度：以过去四周成交额占比/市值占比（较全A）作为衡量主题行业交易热度的表征指标来看，本周热度 分位（下同）上行行业主要为：光伏+32pct至71%、 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 11th this week, with a change of +1.77%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.08 percentage points and underperforming the ChiNext Index by 1.40 percentage points [4] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of differentiated performance in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sugar substitutes, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] - The supply of third-generation refrigerants is entering a high prosperity cycle due to quota policies, with demand remaining stable amid market expansion [5] - The electronic specialty gases market presents significant domestic substitution opportunities due to high technical barriers and increasing demand from semiconductor, display, and photovoltaic sectors [6][8] - The trend of light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift towards lighter raw materials for olefin production, which is expected to lead to a revaluation of leading companies in this sector [8] - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure expected as demand gradually recovers [12] Summary by Sections Industry Review - The chemical sector's performance for the week of July 14-18, 2025, showed a rise of 1.77%, ranking 11th among sectors [22] - The top three performing sub-sectors were synthetic resins, membrane materials, and polyurethanes, while the bottom three were oil product trading, compound fertilizers, and organic silicon [24] Supply Side Tracking - A total of 155 companies in the chemical industry had their production capacities affected this week, with 1 new shutdown and 7 restarts reported [14] Key Industry Dynamics - A fire at Covestro's plant in Germany led to supply disruptions for key products, including TDI, due to a chlorine supply interruption [35] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced upcoming growth stabilization plans for ten key industries, including petrochemicals [35]

Core Viewpoint - The FTSE China A50 Index showed mixed performance with banking and insurance stocks mostly declining, while coal and liquor sectors experienced gains [1][6]. Banking Sector - Major banks like China Everbright Bank saw a market value of 250.52 billion with a trading volume of 800 million, closing at 4.24, down by 0.03 (-0.70%) [3]. - China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, and China Life Insurance had market values of 370.60 billion, 348.16 billion, and 1,032.52 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.76 billion, 3.93 billion, and 770 million, showing declines of 0.47 (-1.28%), 0.04 (-0.48%), and 0.49 (-0.86%) [3]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector faced declines with major players like China Pacific Insurance and China Ping An reporting negative changes in stock prices [3]. Coal Sector - The coal industry saw positive performance with companies like Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua Energy reporting gains of 1.71 (+4.53%) and 1.55 (+7.93%) respectively [3]. Liquor Sector - The liquor sector performed well, with Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye reporting market values of 1,840.30 billion, 232.75 billion, and 487.26 billion respectively, and gains of 2.97 (+2.42%), 21.98 (+1.52%), and 10.49 (+5.82%) [3]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry showed mixed results with companies like Northern Huachuang and Cambrian Technologies reporting market values of 232.46 billion and 248.47 billion, with stock price changes of +2.09 (+0.65%) and -1.33 (-0.97%) respectively [3]. Oil Sector - The oil sector had positive movements with China Petroleum and China Petrochemical reporting market values of 1,649.02 billion and 731.11 billion, with stock price increases of 0.08 (+0.90%) and 0.11 (+1.86%) respectively [3]. Other Sectors - Various sectors including electric power, shipping, and consumer electronics showed diverse performance, with notable gains in companies like CATL and Industrial Fulian [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of public equity funds managed by various asset management firms in the first half of the year, particularly in sectors like AI, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with several fund managers achieving record net asset values [2][4]. Group 1: Fund Performance - In the first half of the year, the A-share market was active, with significant performances in sectors such as AI, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2]. - The net asset value of the "Oriental Red Medical Upgrade Stock Initiation A" fund managed by Jiang Qi increased by 44.55%, reaching a new high since its inception [2][4]. - Jiang Qi's fund maintained a high stock position of 90.37% as of June 30, with top holdings including Bai Li Tianheng and Kanghong Pharmaceutical [4]. Group 2: Manager Insights - Jiang Qi believes that the innovative pharmaceutical sector is entering a harvest phase, with expectations for a prolonged period of growth [5]. - Jiang Qi emphasizes the importance of technological advancements and clinical resources in accelerating the development of innovative pharmaceutical companies [5][6]. - Zhou Yun from Oriental Red Asset Management notes that the low interest rate environment and the "anti-involution" trend support a long-term bullish outlook for Chinese assets [7]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Jiang Cheng from Zhongtai Asset Management expresses a cautious optimism regarding macroeconomic conditions while advising caution at the micro level [8]. - Tian Yu from Zhongtai Asset Management remains optimistic about high-end liquor, citing business demand as a key driver despite recent market concerns [9].