Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The records primarily discuss the cyclical sector, including commodities like precious metals, chemicals, oil shipping, and aviation [1][2][12]. Core Insights and Arguments Monetary Policy and Market Impact - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: Kevin Walsh's hawkish position as the new Fed Chair has temporarily alleviated concerns about the Fed's independence, but his proposed policies of balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts may not effectively address issues like deficit monetization and government debt financing costs [1][27]. - **Liquidity Environment**: Both domestic and international liquidity conditions are currently loose, supporting price increases in precious and non-ferrous metals. Geopolitical instability and de-dollarization trends provide long-term support for these assets [1][4]. Commodity Performance - **Cyclical Sector Performance**: The cyclical sector in the A-share market has shown strong performance since early 2026, with significant gains in non-ferrous metals, particularly a 60% increase in precious metals in January [2][23]. - **Chemical Sector**: Despite recent price increases, the chemical sector is in a seasonal demand lull, and valuations are no longer attractive. The long-term outlook indicates a decrease in global chemical capacity growth due to reduced capital expenditure in China [5][6]. Oil Shipping Market - **High Demand and Pricing**: The oil shipping market is experiencing high demand due to OPEC+ production increases, with the VLOC freight index showing significant price increases. The market is characterized by limited supply and high demand, indicating a strong bullish outlook [1][13][14]. Aviation Sector - **Valuation and Recovery**: The aviation sector is currently facing short-term losses, but valuations have reached reasonable levels. Ticket prices are expected to recover and potentially exceed 2019 levels, with profit peaks possibly reaching 15 billion to 20 billion yuan [1][15][16]. Highway Sector - **Investment Attractiveness**: The highway sector has become more attractive relative to the broader market, with specific stocks like Sichuan Chengyu and Shenzhen International offering high dividend yields [1][17]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Factors**: The significant rise in non-ferrous metals prices in January 2026 was driven by geopolitical factors rather than traditional supply-demand dynamics, including U.S. interventions in various regions and military demand [23][25]. - **Future Trends in Chemical Industry**: The chemical industry is expected to face challenges due to stricter carbon emission regulations and reduced capital expenditure, leading to a decline in capacity growth [7][8][9]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Despite short-term price corrections, the long-term outlook for various commodities remains positive, with potential for price recovery as supply constraints and demand growth align [11][30][31]. Conclusion The cyclical sector is currently navigating a complex landscape influenced by monetary policy, geopolitical factors, and sector-specific dynamics. Investment opportunities exist, particularly in oil shipping, aviation, and select highway stocks, while caution is advised in the chemical sector due to valuation concerns and regulatory pressures.

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略月报】 红利内部轮动模型：迈向周期与制造 ——多行业联合红利资产 1 月报 策略研究 策略月报 2026 年 02 月 01 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：马野 邮箱：maye@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040003 相关研究报告 《【华创策略】杠杆&ETF 资金分化趋势逆转—— 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-12-01 《【华创策略】自媒体 A 股搜索热度重回高位— —流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-11-25 《【华创策略】60 日均线的机遇挑战——策略周 聚焦》 2025-11-23 《【华创策略】股票型 ETF 为当前流入主力—— 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-11-1 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry: Hong Kong Real Estate Market - The Hong Kong real estate market is expected to bottom out between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025, with fundamentals reaching their lowest point by April 2025. New home transaction volumes are projected to recover to 21,000 units, the same level as in 2019, while secondary home transactions will only recover to 70% of the previous peak of 56,000 units, indicating a slower recovery for the secondary market [1][2][3] - Property stocks of Hong Kong developers are currently undervalued, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio below 0.5. If valuations return to the previous cycle's upper limit of 0.8 PB, there is potential for at least a 100% increase. Companies with high property sales ratios and significant land reserves, such as Sun Hung Kai, Henderson Land, and Sino Land, are recommended for investment [1][4] Industry: Highway Sector - The recent adjustment in the highway sector is attributed to a style shift rather than changes in fundamentals. Stocks like Anhui Expressway, Shandong Expressway, and Sichuan Chengyu have seen adjustments of 30%-40%, but their dividend yields have become more attractive, with Shandong Expressway's yield nearing 6% [5][6] - The potential for growth exists due to expansion projects, making companies like Shandong Expressway and Anhui Expressway good investment opportunities [6] Company: J&T Express - J&T Express has experienced a stock price adjustment of approximately 15%, primarily due to the impact of share issuance and convertible bonds, which do not reflect the company's fundamentals. The company is expected to show strong performance in 2026, with significant growth in overseas markets [7] Company: Beibu Gulf Port - The stock price of Beibu Gulf Port has fluctuated due to news regarding the new land-sea corridor and the upcoming opening of the Pinglu Canal. After a recent pullback, it is considered a good time to invest again, especially with policy catalysts expected in the medium term [8] Company: SF Express - SF Express has optimized its low-cost e-commerce business, leading to reasonable growth in parcel volume and a month-on-month price recovery. The company's valuation is at historical lows, and it is expected to perform well in the upcoming quarters, making it a good investment opportunity [9] Industry: Construction and Building Materials - The construction and building materials sector still holds investment value amid a cyclical rebalancing, currently at a historically low allocation. Key companies to watch include traditional leaders like Skshu, Yuhong, and Weixing, as well as high-dividend stocks like Conch Cement and TPI Cement. Companies related to technology, such as Roman Holdings and Zhongtai Technology, are also recommended due to increased demand from domestic AIDC and AI-related construction [10] Industry: Commercial Aerospace and Space Photovoltaics - The commercial aerospace sector is gaining traction, with significant developments expected this year. Companies involved in space photovoltaics, such as Shanghai Port Bay, are highlighted for their potential demand and investment value [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the transportation sector, emphasizing the value of transportation assets [1]. Core Insights - The port container sector shows relatively good market conditions, with only the port segment outperforming the CSI 300 and transportation indices [4][10]. - The overall performance of transportation assets is average, with highway and railway sectors underperforming [10][11]. - The report highlights a low interest rate environment, which is conducive to capital operations and market activity [20][21]. Monthly Market Performance - In January 2026, the performance of transportation assets was generally average, with only the port sector showing positive growth [4][8]. - The cumulative performance from January 1 to January 27, 2026, showed highways down by 1.50%, railways down by 3.14%, and ports up by 2.96% [10][11]. - The average daily transaction volume for ports increased significantly, while highway transaction volumes decreased [22]. Industry Data - Highway passenger traffic in November 2025 was 961 million, down 2.4% year-on-year, while freight traffic increased by 3.6% [33]. - Railway passenger volume in December 2025 was 323 million, up 8.5% year-on-year, while freight volume decreased by 2.6% [51]. - Port cargo throughput for the four weeks from December 29, 2025, to January 25, 2026, was 1.036 billion tons, up 4.3% year-on-year [60]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies high-dividend quality stocks in the transportation sector, recommending companies like Sichuan Chengyu and Daqin Railway for their stable growth and high dividend yields [4][19]. - It emphasizes the importance of capital operations and strategic investments in the highway and port sectors to enhance overall performance [29][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the transportation sector, emphasizing the value of transportation assets [1]. Core Insights - The port container sector shows relatively good market conditions, with only the port segment outperforming the CSI 300 and transportation indices [4][10]. - The overall performance of transportation assets is average, with highway and railway segments underperforming [10][11]. - The report highlights a low interest rate environment, which is conducive to capital operations and market activity [20][21]. Monthly Market Performance - In January 2026, the performance of transportation assets was generally average, with only the port sector showing positive growth [4][8]. - The cumulative performance from January 1 to January 27, 2026, showed declines of -1.50% for highways, -3.14% for railways, and an increase of +2.96% for ports [10][11]. - The average daily transaction volume for ports increased significantly, while highway transaction volumes decreased [22]. Industry Data - Highway passenger traffic in November 2025 was 961 million, down 2.4% year-on-year, while freight traffic increased by 3.6% [33]. - Railway passenger volume in December 2025 was 323 million, up 8.5% year-on-year, while freight volume decreased by 2.6% [51]. - Port cargo throughput for the first four weeks of 2026 was 1.036 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [60]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies high-dividend quality stocks in the transportation sector, recommending companies such as Sichuan Chengyu and Daqin Railway for their stable growth and high dividend yields [4][19]. - It emphasizes the potential for growth in highway operations, particularly in light of favorable policy changes and local state-owned enterprise actions [4][19]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong dividend yields and stable performance, such as Jiangsu Ninhuhighway and Qingdao Port [4][19].

Summary of Shandong Expressway Conference Call Company Overview - Shandong Expressway focuses on toll road operations as its core business and has diversified into the broader transportation industry chain, including railway freight and electromechanical engineering, optimizing its revenue structure [2][4] - The company strategically introduced Anhui Expressway to optimize its equity structure, facilitating future capital operations [2] Core Financial Insights - Toll revenue remains the primary source of income for Shandong Expressway, with costs and revenues moving in sync, maintaining a stable gross margin over the long term [2][6] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported steady growth in profits and cash flow, with investment income becoming a significant profit supplement, and asset disposals adding 0.85 billion yuan to net profit attributable to shareholders [2][6] Dividend Policy - Shandong Expressway boasts a leading dividend yield in the industry, projected at 4.1% for 2024, ranking among the top three in the sector [2][7] - Expected dividend yields for 2025 and 2026 are forecasted to reach 4.5% and 4.6%, respectively, with potential for new dividend plans in the future [2][7] Operational Highlights - The company’s core road assets are located in Shandong Province, a major transportation hub with strong demand for both passenger and freight transport [2][8] - As of mid-2025, the operational mileage reached 2,913 kilometers, with approximately 1,604 kilometers of free road assets [2][8] - Key routes such as the Jiqing and Jingtai expressways have completed expansion projects, which are expected to significantly increase traffic volume and enhance revenue per kilometer due to new toll standards [2][9] Competitive Advantages - Shandong Expressway's competitive edge lies in its location and road assets, with a leading operational mileage in the industry [2][8] - The completion of the Jingtai expressway expansion is anticipated to extend toll collection periods, further securing revenue sustainability [2][8] Future Outlook - The company’s future development is supported by three main factors: 1. Ongoing completion of core road asset expansions is expected to catalyze volume and price increases [2][9] 2. Continuous decline in borrowing costs since 2022 will reduce financial expenses and enhance profit growth potential [2][9] 3. The low-risk yield environment enhances the attractiveness of high dividend configurations, with rising expected dividend yields since 2025 [2][9] - Overall, there is a strong positive outlook on the investment value of Shandong Expressway [2][9]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其準確性或 完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該 等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 安徽皖通高速公路股份有限公司 ANHUI EXPRESSWAY COMPANY LIMITED （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份編號： 995） 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10(B)條而作出。 截止本公告日，本公司董事會成員包括執行董事汪小文（主席）、余泳及陳季平；非 執行董事楊旭東及楊建國；獨立非執行董事章劍平、盧太平及趙建莉；以及職工董 事吳長明。 | 证券代码：600012 | 证券简称：皖通高速 | | | 公告编号： | 临 | 2026-002 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：242121 | 债券简称：24 | 皖通 | 01 | | | | | 债券代码：242467 | 债券简称：25 | 皖通 | V1 | | | | | 债券代码：242468 | ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或 完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依賴該等 內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 安徽皖通高速公路股份有限公司 ANHUI EXPRESSWAY COMPANY LIMITED （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份編號： 995） 關連交易 與S19聯合體其他成員成立合資公司以實施有關 S19淮南至桐城高速公路舒城至桐城段的項目 茲提述本公司日期為2026年1月13日之公告，據此，本公司宣佈：(i)本公司已 加入由安徽交控集團牽頭之S19聯合體，並與交控工程、交控建工、交控信息產 業及迅捷物流共同參與有關S19淮南至桐城高速公路舒城至桐城段特許經營者項 目之公開招投標；及(ii)S19聯合體已接獲S19項目之中標確認書。誠如2026年1 月13日之公告所披露，本公司擬與S19聯合體其他成員共同出資成立S19合資公 司，以實施S19項目。 董事會宣佈，於2026年1月27日，本公司與S19聯合體其他成員訂立S19合資協 議，並就成立S19合資公司之相關安排達成一致。聯合體向 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the steady growth of the postal industry, with a total delivery volume of 2,165.1 billion pieces in 2025, marking an 11.8% year-on-year increase, and express delivery volume reaching 1,989.5 billion pieces, up 13.6% year-on-year [15][14] - The social service sector has shown a 4.78% increase in the last two trading weeks, ranking 8th among 31 industries, with expectations for continued growth in consumer spending driven by various policies [8][12] - The logistics sector is experiencing structural optimization, with the national postal bureau reporting robust growth in the industry, while the airline sector sees a slight decrease in average ticket prices compared to 2019 due to timing issues [15][14] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.85% to 14,316.64 [1] - The social service sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 5.97 percentage points, indicating strong relative performance [9][8] Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the successful first flight of a 500kg tilt-rotor drone, indicating advancements in the low-altitude economy and the potential for eVTOL applications [15][14] - The report notes a general decline in freight rates for major shipping routes due to geopolitical tensions affecting demand [15][14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong earnings growth certainty in the travel chain and related industries, such as Tongcheng Travel and Huangshan Tourism [12] - It also recommends monitoring opportunities in the express logistics sector, particularly for companies like SF Express and Jitu Express, as well as in the airline industry due to increased demand during the Spring Festival [17][12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the highway industry [6]. Core Insights - The comprehensive revision of the "Regulations on the Management of Toll Roads" has been in preparation for years, with broad consensus on four key amendments. The anticipated policy optimization is expected to accelerate, with the amendment of the Highway Law serving as an important signal that could improve long-term returns in the industry [3][6]. - The demand for highway tolls is recovering, and the certainty of dividends remains prominent. The highway industry is experiencing a release of suppressed demand and expansion effects, driving significant growth in traffic volume and profitability. From the second half of 2024 to the first half of 2025, traffic volume in the highway industry is expected to remain under pressure, particularly with a year-on-year reduction in truck traffic, which contrasts with the steady growth trend in highway freight volume [6]. - The report highlights that highway companies are actively optimizing their debt structures in response to the continuous decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), which is expected to further reduce financial costs and support profitability growth. The stability of the highway dividend policy and manageable capital expenditure pressures for expansion and reconstruction projects position the industry as a preferred choice for dividends in the transportation sector [6]. Summary by Sections Policy Revision - The "Regulations on the Management of Toll Roads" is the most important policy for the highway industry, originally enacted in 2004. It has effectively supported the rapid construction of China's highway network over the past forty years. However, rising construction costs and unchanged toll standards have led to declining returns on new and expanded projects, increasing financing difficulties and accumulating debt risks [6]. - The Ministry of Transport has previously released draft amendments in 2013, 2015, and 2018, with the revision consistently appearing in annual legislative work plans. The report suggests that as a batch of highways approaches the end of their tolling period, policy optimization may accelerate [6]. - Key amendments include extending the operating period for new projects from 25 years to 30 years, allowing for extensions on reconstruction projects, introducing compensation mechanisms for reductions, and establishing a maintenance fee system based on the "user pays" principle [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the highway sector, suggesting that policy optimization may catalyze optimistic expectations. The industry faces reinvestment pressures due to limited operating years and ongoing business needs, making reinvestment a necessary choice. The report anticipates that policy optimization will systematically improve reinvestment risks and ensure reasonable returns on reinvestment [6]. - Recommended stocks include China Merchants Highway, Nanjing-Hangzhou Expressway, Anhui Wantuo Expressway, and Shenzhen International, with additional mentions of Sichuan Chengyu, Guangdong Expressway, Shandong Expressway, and Zhongyuan Expressway as related targets [6].