2026年以来，离岸人民币多次逼近6.8水平，稳稳居于"6"时代。 春节假期刚过，外汇市场掀起一轮新的讨论热潮。 在岸、离岸人民币汇率节后连续走强，2月26日，美元对人民币、美元对离岸人民币盘中分别最低触及 6.8310、6.82665。伴随人民币快速走强，此前在"高息+汇差"逻辑下买入美元存款的投资者，开始集中 复盘自己的收益账本，结果让不少人意外：利息未必能覆盖汇率损失，甚至出现本金缩水。 在人民币定存利率已普遍降至"1"字头的背景下，美元存款一度以3%~4%以上的票面利率成为市场焦 点。但当汇率逆转，这笔看似稳妥的"高息"配置，正显露其背后的波动风险。 有人一年亏掉利息还倒贴本金 "跟风存美元，没想到直接亏了7000元。"一位投资者在社交平台上的留言，引发大量共鸣。有的人晒收 益，有的人晒亏损，更多的人在反思：为何买入"高息"美元存款后，到期后反而亏了？ 乐乐（化名）告诉记者，2025年初，她以约7.23的汇率购入5万美元，办理了年利率4.5%的一年期美元 定期存款。那时，人民币定存利率已跌至"1"字头，而美元定存利率仍处于高位。"利差摆在那儿，感觉 不配点美元都说不过去。" 一年后，她如约拿到2250 ...

消息面上，春节过后，居民闲置资金集中进入配置窗口，银行理财市场迎来新一轮布局热潮。多家理财 公司抢抓开工季节点，密集推出各类理财产品，一场面向节后回流资金的理财"抢客战"正式打响。 光大证券指出，银行板块进入"春播"时间窗口，收获时间需等风格切换。基本面角度看，银行经营业绩 稳定性强，3月财报季具有坚实支撑。一方面，商业银行25Q4经营指标及上市银行业绩快报披露情况显 示，随着息差收窄压力边际缓释，2025年全年经营业绩稳中向好；另一方面，从2026年开年以来银行运 行态势看，信贷"开门红"相对温和，全年扩表仍将保持一定强度，叠加息差收窄压力同比缓释，将对利 息收入形成有力支撑，手续费也有望延续回暖态势，预估上市银行2026年营收增速小幅上修至2%附 近。经济发达地区的优质中小行信贷投放景气度更高、盈利能力更强。从估值角度看，银行板块"高股 息、低估值"属性再度凸显，"两会"临近有助于改善市场预期。 截至2026年2月26日 09:47，中证银行指数(399986)上涨0.31%，成分股民生银行上涨1.03%，江苏银行上 涨0.97%，南京银行上涨0.90%，沪农商行上涨0.72%，江阴银行上涨0.66%。银 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [2026]第 033 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 1 银行业（郭怡萍） 国家金融监管总局发布 2025 年四季度银行业主要监管指标数据情况。 商业银行盈利增速回正，净利润增速逐季提升。2025 年，商业银行净利润同比增长 2.3%， 年内净利润增速持续提升。分机构类型看，城商行和农商行净利润增速在低基数基础上实 现较快的利润增长，净利润增速分别达 12.9%和 4.6%。大型银行净利润增速持平为 2.3%， 股份制银行净利润增速则下降至-2.8%。商业银行资本利润率 7.78%，资产利润率 0.60%，均 较前值有所下降。其中，大型银行资产利润率保持在 0.67%，体现一定盈利能力韧性。 商业银行息差延续边际趋稳态势，支持提升核心盈利能力。四季度银行净利息收益率 1.42%，持平于三季度，二季度以来净息差整体保持稳定，有助于提升核心盈利能力。全年 来看，商业银行息差同比下降 11 BP，基本符合预期，其中城商行息差体现出较强的韧性， 同比仅下行 1 BP。商业银行非利息收入占比为 22.53%，较三季度继续下降，主要是债市波 动所致。 时 间：2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - Baili Technology is facing significant financial and legal challenges, including ongoing losses and multiple lawsuits related to financial borrowing contracts, which may impact its operational and financing capabilities. Group 1: Financial Performance - Baili Technology has reported a net loss of 118 million yuan in 2023 and an increased loss of 401 million yuan in 2024, with projections indicating a continued loss of 140 million to 200 million yuan in 2025 [3] - The company has experienced three consecutive years of losses, attributed to long revenue recognition cycles and reduced gross margins due to delayed project deliveries and increased credit impairment losses [3] Group 2: Legal Issues - The company is involved in two financial borrowing contract disputes, with a total claim amount of 104 million yuan, including 84.85 million yuan from Jiangsu Bank and 18.8 million yuan from Industrial and Commercial Bank [1][2] - Baili Technology has a history of frequent litigation, with total claims from various lawsuits and arbitration cases amounting to 291 million yuan as of February 10 [3] Group 3: Operational Impact - Baili Lithium Battery, a key subsidiary of Baili Technology, is primarily engaged in the production of lithium battery materials and has clients such as CATL and Hunan Shanshan, making the ongoing lawsuits potentially detrimental to its daily operations and financing capabilities [2] - The company is actively collecting evidence and preparing to respond to the lawsuits to protect its legal rights, while also indicating that the final impact will depend on court rulings [1][4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the banking sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Lunar New Year misalignment has disrupted the deposit growth rhythm, with a continued trend of personal fixed deposits migrating from small to large banks [2][4]. - On the asset side, credit growth continues to slow down, with a significant increase in short-term loans, particularly among large banks [4]. Summary by Sections Liabilities - The Lunar New Year misalignment has caused disturbances in deposit growth [3]. - Total deposits increased by CNY 3.5 trillion year-on-year, with demand deposits and fixed deposits increasing by CNY 2.5 trillion and decreasing by CNY 912 billion, respectively [5]. Assets - Total loans decreased by CNY 489.3 billion year-on-year, with large banks and small banks seeing decreases of CNY 213 billion and CNY 276.3 billion, respectively [4]. - Short-term loans increased by CNY 347.8 billion year-on-year, while medium and long-term loans decreased by CNY 377.2 billion [4]. - Large banks saw a year-on-year increase of CNY 419.7 billion in short-term loans, while small banks experienced a decrease of CNY 718 million [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment in the banking sector: 1. Identifying targets with expected performance growth, recommending banks like Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Nanjing Bank [6]. 2. Emphasizing banks with convertible bond expectations, recommending Chongqing Bank and Changshu Bank [6]. 3. Continuing dividend strategies, recommending banks such as Bank of Communications and Jiangsu Bank [6].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration have assessed the systemically important banks for 2025, identifying 21 banks, with notable changes in the rankings and classifications of certain banks [1][2]. Group 1: Systemically Important Banks - A total of 21 domestic systemically important banks have been recognized, including 6 state-owned commercial banks, 10 joint-stock commercial banks, and 5 city commercial banks [1]. - The latest list shows that Zhejiang Commercial Bank has been newly included, while Industrial Bank has been reclassified from the third group to the second group [1][2]. - The banks are categorized into five groups based on their systemic importance scores, with the first group containing 11 banks, the second group 4 banks, the third group 2 banks, the fourth group 4 banks, and no banks in the fifth group [1]. Group 2: Zhejiang Commercial Bank - As of September 2025, Zhejiang Commercial Bank has an asset scale of approximately 3.4 trillion yuan, with capital adequacy ratios of 12.15%, 9.61%, and 8.40% for total capital, tier 1 capital, and core tier 1 capital respectively, all maintaining reasonable levels [2]. - The bank reported an operating income of approximately 48.9 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 11.7 billion yuan for the first three quarters of the previous year [2]. - In the 2025 Global Bank 1000 ranking published by The Banker magazine, Zhejiang Commercial Bank ranked 82nd by tier 1 capital and 75th by total assets, both improving by 2 positions from the previous year [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework - Systemically important banks are defined as large, complex institutions with significant interconnections to other financial entities, necessitating stricter regulatory measures to ensure financial stability [2]. - The regulatory framework established in October 2021 mandates additional capital requirements for these banks, ranging from 0.25% to 1.5% based on their group classification [2]. - The authorities plan to enhance macro-prudential management and micro-prudential supervision to ensure the safe and sound operation of systemically important banks, thereby supporting high-quality development of the real economy [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation of stock performance exceeding the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [58]. Core Insights - In 2025, the banking sector's asset growth is projected to be 8.01%, an increase from 6.52% in 2024, driven by factors such as fiscal stimulus, cross-border capital inflows, and the activation of maturing deposits [5][13]. - The report identifies two key cycles affecting asset pricing in banking: the bank expansion cycle and the interest margin cycle, suggesting a comprehensive analysis of these cycles [5][13]. - The debt cycle is characterized as a fundamental aspect of the bank expansion cycle, with a model proposed by Dalio outlining seven stages of a typical debt cycle, which can be influenced by external debt reliance [16][19]. - The report anticipates limited upward space for the debt cycle in 2026, with government leverage expected to increase by 5.89%, lower than the 7.6% projected for 2025 [35][36]. - The banking interest margin cycle is expected to stabilize in 2025, following two complete cycles since 2010, with a correlation observed between bank interest margins and the 30Y-10Y government bond spread [41][45]. Summary by Sections Bank Expansion Cycle - The asset growth rates for different types of banks in 2025 are projected as follows: state-owned banks at 11%, joint-stock banks at 4.74%, city commercial banks at 9.68%, and rural commercial banks at 5.17%, all exceeding the average growth rate [5][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the relationship between bank assets and liabilities, highlighting that credit and debt expansion are cyclical and self-reinforcing [15][16]. Debt Cycle Analysis - The report outlines that the current debt cycle, which began in 2022, has lasted 16 quarters, surpassing previous cycles, and indicates a shift in leverage dynamics among enterprises, government, and households [35][36]. - The analysis includes a comparison of deflationary and inflationary debt cycles, noting that the U.S. faces greater inflationary pressures due to higher external debt reliance compared to China [21][19]. Interest Margin Cycle - The report notes that the banking interest margin has experienced significant fluctuations since 2010, with a stabilization phase expected to begin in 2025 [41][45]. - It highlights the impact of loan repricing cycles on interest margins, with a notable decline in loan rates observed in recent years [49][50].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration have conducted the 2025 assessment of systemically important banks, identifying 21 domestic banks categorized into five groups based on their systemic importance scores [1] Group 1: Assessment of Systemically Important Banks - A total of 21 domestic systemically important banks have been recognized, including 6 state-owned commercial banks, 10 joint-stock commercial banks, and 5 city commercial banks [1] - The banks are divided into five groups based on their systemic importance scores, with the first group consisting of 11 banks, the second group having 4 banks, the third group with 2 banks, the fourth group containing 4 banks, and the fifth group having no banks [1] Group 2: Breakdown of Bank Groups - The first group includes: China Minsheng Bank, China Everbright Bank, Ping An Bank, Huaxia Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Beijing Bank, Nanjing Bank, Guangfa Bank, Zheshang Bank, and Shanghai Bank [1] - The second group consists of: Industrial Bank, China CITIC Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and China Postal Savings Bank [1] - The third group includes: Bank of Communications and China Merchants Bank [1] - The fourth group comprises: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China [1] - The fifth group currently has no banks included [1] Group 3: Future Regulatory Actions - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration will implement additional regulatory measures for systemically important banks according to the "Regulations on Additional Supervision of Systemically Important Banks (Trial)" [1] - The aim is to enhance the synergy between macro-prudential management and micro-prudential supervision, ensuring the safe and sound operation of systemically important banks [1] - This initiative is intended to better support the high-quality development of the real economy [1]

2026 年 2 月 24 日 分析师：董文欣 执业证书编号：S0930521090001 010-57378035 dongwx@ebscn.com ——银行&保险业春节后投资展望 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 行业研究 金融股又到"春播"时？ 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：黄怡婷 执业证书编号：S0930524070003 010-57378023 huangyiting@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 1 月贷款同比少增，稳定需求仍需政策加力 — — 2026 年 1 月 份 金 融 数 据 点 评 (2026-2-14) 息差保持稳定，盈利增速回升——2025 年四 季 度 商 业 银 行 主 要 监 管 指 标 点 评 (2026-2-13) 要点 事项： 年初以来（截至 2 月 13 日），A、H 金融股表现分化，涨跌互现， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The banking index fell by 1.3% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices by 1.6% and 2.5% respectively, indicating a short-term style switch in the market [6][19] - H-shares of banks led the gains, while most A-shares declined, with notable performances from Huaxia Bank and Shanghai Bank due to improved earnings and strong expectations for convertible bond conversions [6][19] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio and return on equity (ROE) of bank stocks remain undervalued, with a continued recommendation for high-quality city commercial banks in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces, including Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, Qingdao Bank, Qilu Bank, and Suzhou Bank [6][19] - The report also suggests focusing on low-valuation, high-dividend, and convertible bond opportunities, particularly in Industrial Bank [6][19] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The banking sector's trading activity has decreased, with turnover rates falling, although the transaction volume share for state-owned and rural commercial banks has rebounded [8][39] - The average dividend yield for the six major state-owned banks in A-shares is 4.28%, with a spread of 249 basis points over the 10-year government bond yield, while H-shares yield 5.21% [7][29] Profit Growth and Net Interest Margin - The overall asset growth rate for commercial banks reached 9.0% year-on-year by the end of Q4 2025, with major state-owned banks seeing a growth rate of 10.8% [9][44] - The net profit growth for commercial banks was 2.3% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend, particularly among city and rural commercial banks [9][44] - The net interest margin for 2025 is projected at 1.42%, with a marginal stabilization observed, and a further narrowing of the decline expected in 2026 [9][46] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratios across various banks are stable or improving, attributed to increased write-off efforts, while the provision coverage ratio continues to decline [10][49] - Capital adequacy ratios remain stable, with attention on the potential impact of the second round of fiscal injections for state-owned banks and refinancing for smaller banks in 2026 [10][49]