内容来源：刘润公众号（runliu-pub） 此前，麦肯锡发布了一份报告:《 下一个重大竞争：改变商业格局的行业领域 》。 报告详细分析了未来最有可能改变全球商业格局的18个赛道，并预测2040年，这18个赛道将实现29万—48万亿美元的收入，贡献18-34%的 全球GDP增长。 1）电商。 麦肯锡预测，到2040年，电商在全球零售收入的占比，可能会到27%-38%，目前大约有20%。 电商行业的增长点，在于发展中国家的市场扩展，或者是发达国家中新品类的增长 。 比如，医疗保健，或者是珠宝和手工艺品等，更有"情绪价值"的产品。因为它们，更容易通过叙事的方式，在社交电商销售。 全球范围来看，无论是电商平台的获客，还是最后一公里的配送，还会大概率迎来大量投资。 2）电动汽车。 无论在乘用车还是商用车，电动车的份额还会提升。麦肯锡判断，电动车在全球乘用车销量中的占比，会在2040年超过50%。 电池技术的突破，智能算法的革新，也都将会是重要的影响因素。无论是电动车企业还是传统车企，都会加大研发投资。 3）云服务。 世界正在变得更加互联，这就对企业提出了更高的储存和计算能力要求。 新的AI产品，更需要大量的算力。 根 ...

Market Performance - European stocks closed positively, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 up by 1.19%, the UK's FTSE 100 climbing 1.23%, Germany's DAX gaining 1.12%, and France's CAC 40 ending 0.81% higher [1][3]. - Defense stocks rose due to an agreement between India and France to strengthen defense and aerospace ties [2]. - Mining and banking sectors also saw significant gains, with notable performances from companies like Antofagasta, which soared nearly 11% [4]. Company Updates - BAE Systems reported a better-than-expected 12% rise in full-year operating profit, leading to a 4% increase in its shares [4]. - In Germany, Rheinmetall climbed more than 5%, and Heidelberg Materials gained about 4.3% [5]. - Bayer's shares fell over 7% due to a proposed $10.5 billion settlement related to litigation over its Roundup weedkiller [6]. Sector Performance - In the UK market, mining companies such as Fresnillo, Anglo American Plc, and Glencore gained between 4.25% and 4.8% [4]. - In France, companies like Thales, ArcelorMittal, and STMicroelectronics saw gains of 2%-5% [7]. - Notable declines were observed in food retailer Carrefour, which slid more than 5% after reporting a decline in operating profit [8]. Economic Indicators - France's inflation eased to the lowest in five years, with the consumer price index rising only 0.3% year-on-year in January [9]. - The EU harmonized inflation softened to 0.4% from 0.7% in December, marking the weakest rate since December 2020 [10]. - In the UK, the consumer price index posted an annual increase of 3% in January, the lowest since March 2025 [12].

Core Insights - JCDecaux is launching an enhanced version of its 360 Footprint tool internationally, which measures the environmental, economic, and social impact of advertising campaigns, aiming to set a new benchmark for responsible communication [1][2][4] Group 1: Product Launch and Features - The 360 Footprint tool allows advertisers to measure the environmental impact, societal benefits, and identify areas for improvement in their campaigns [2][5] - The tool has been successfully piloted in France, analyzing over 235 campaigns for nearly 50 major advertisers across various sectors from 2021 to 2025 [3][4] - The enhanced version now covers all advertising environments offered by JCDecaux, providing solutions like low-impact inks and certified recycled paper [5] Group 2: Strategic Importance - The rollout of 360 Footprint aligns with JCDecaux's 2030 ESG and Climate Strategies, aiming for significant emissions reductions in line with its Net Zero ambition [6] - The initiative supports JCDecaux's long-standing commitment to improving quality of life through sustainable services, such as advertising-funded street furniture [6] Group 3: Communication and Market Engagement - A communication campaign, developed by Publicis Consultants, will promote the 360 Footprint tool, emphasizing its ability to measure unseen impacts like carbon and water footprints [7][9] - The campaign will utilize transparent street furniture and social media to engage stakeholders and raise awareness about the tool's benefits [7] Group 4: Leadership Statements - Lénaïc Pineau, Chief Sustainability and Quality Officer, highlighted that 360 Footprint not only measures impact but also facilitates informed conversations with clients and local authorities [8] - Jean-François Decaux, Chairman and Co-CEO, stated that the international rollout represents a milestone in JCDecaux's commitment to innovation and positive impact in outdoor advertising [9]

Market Overview - European stocks closed mostly higher, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 gaining 0.45% and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 climbing 0.79% [2] - Investors are optimistic about potential monetary easing from central banks, particularly the Bank of England, amid rising unemployment rates in the UK [1][9] Sector Performance - Defense stocks showed weakness due to hopes of de-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions [3] - In the UK market, several companies such as Coca-Cola Europacific Partners, Barratt Redrow, and AstraZeneca saw gains between 2% and 3.5% [3] - Conversely, miners like Endeavour Mining and Antofagasta fell between 2% and 4% [4] Notable Company Movements - GSK's shares rose over 2.5% following the announcement of a £2 billion share buyback program [3] - Bayer in Germany soared more than 8%, while other companies like Vonovia and Infineon gained approximately 4% and 3.25% respectively [4] - In France, Dassault Systemes climbed about 4%, with other firms like Unibail Rodamco and AXA gaining 2%-3% [6] Economic Indicators - German consumer price inflation rebounded to 2.1% in January, influenced by higher food and services costs [7] - The UK's jobless rate increased to 5.2% in the fourth quarter, with average earnings growth at 4.2%, below expectations [9]

Core Viewpoint - Luxury companies like LVMH and Kering are facing significant volatility in their stock prices due to hedge fund positioning and concerns over AI-related market fluctuations, as they attempt to recover from a two-year slowdown in sales [2][3][8]. Group 1: Company Performance - LVMH, the largest luxury group with a market cap of €260 billion ($308.49 billion), experienced its largest one-day stock drop since 2020 after CEO Bernard Arnault expressed caution about future growth, which contrasted with a previous 12% increase following an optimistic market update in October [4][10]. - Kering's shares rose by 11% after reporting fourth-quarter revenue that fell slightly less than expected, with new CEO Luca de Meo indicating "early, fragile" signs of recovery [6][11]. - Hermes, known for its Birkin bags, saw a modest 2.5% increase in shares despite a solid quarter, trading at 45 times forward earnings, more than double that of LVMH [11]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The luxury sector is experiencing heightened volatility due to a high number of short positions taken by hedge funds, which can lead to significant price swings when unexpected results are announced [5][8]. - The luxury market's dependence on affluent consumer spending makes it particularly sensitive to fluctuations in the U.S. stock market, which is currently experiencing volatility driven by AI trends [8][9]. - Hedge funds are increasingly influencing market movements, with many trading based on news and data points, which can exacerbate price volatility in luxury stocks [7][10]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investors are actively switching their bets among luxury brands, looking for potential turnaround stories as the sector navigates a slow recovery [11]. - Kering's CEO has highlighted the stock market as a key indicator of luxury spending in the U.S., warning that a correction in the AI market could negatively impact European luxury groups [9]. - The current market environment is characterized by nervousness among investors, with many seeking to sell amid high valuations and concentrated market conditions [10].

来源：Barrons巴伦 作者|坦纳·布朗 编辑|蔡鹏程 重金押注中国市场的欧洲奢侈品集团与美国美妆巨头，近年来市值蒸发了数千亿美元。 曾推动奢侈品十年增长、痴迷品牌标识的中国消费者正在消失。取而代之的，是新一代人——他们把精 明会买当作一种荣耀的徽章。 社交媒体上对"平替"的搜索量在2022年至2025年间增长了两倍。这股潮流反映的不只是勒紧裤腰带。对 中国Z世代而言，找到高品质、可替代西方高端品牌的选择，已经成了一种值得自豪的事，他们在小红 书等平台上分享和庆祝，其狂热程度不亚于过去专属于奢侈品开箱视频的热度。 对投资者而言，其影响十分严峻。根据咨询公司贝恩（Bain & Company）的数据，曾贡献全球约三分 之一销量的中国奢侈品市场，2024年萎缩了18%至20%。这场暴跌，让重金押注中国中产消费升级的欧 洲奢侈品集团与美国美妆巨头，市值蒸发了数千亿美元。 LVMH的股价较2023年高点已下跌约30%。拥有Gucci的开云集团（Kering）自2021年以来已暴跌约 60%。博柏利集团（Burberry Group）的品牌价值在2024年缩水20亿美元，降幅达42%，这家拥有近170 年历史的英国品 ...

Core Insights - McKinsey's report identifies 18 industry sectors likely to reshape the global business landscape, predicting revenues of $29 trillion to $48 trillion by 2040, contributing 18-34% to global GDP growth [2]. E-commerce - By 2040, e-commerce's share of global retail revenue is expected to rise to 27%-38%, up from approximately 20% currently [3]. - Growth drivers include market expansion in developing countries and new product categories in developed nations, such as healthcare and emotionally valuable products [4]. - Significant investments are anticipated in customer acquisition and last-mile delivery across e-commerce platforms [5]. Electric Vehicles - Electric vehicles (EVs) are projected to exceed 50% of global passenger car sales by 2040 [6]. - Breakthroughs in battery technology and smart algorithms will significantly influence this sector, prompting increased R&D investments from both EV manufacturers and traditional automakers [7]. Cloud Services - The demand for higher storage and computing capabilities is driven by a more interconnected world and the need for AI products requiring substantial computing power [9]. - The cloud services industry experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% from 2005 to 2020, with similar growth expected in the coming decades [10]. Semiconductors - The semiconductor industry is essential for the digital world, with demand from computing, data storage, automotive, communication, and industrial electronics driving growth [11]. - A sustained CAGR of 6%-8% is forecasted for the semiconductor sector over the next decade [11]. AI Software Services - The rapid development of AI has led to its classification as a distinct sector, with increasing usage of AI assistants [12]. - Companies in the AI space are engaged in a competitive race to develop advanced foundational models and applications [13]. Digital Advertising - Digital advertising, through search, social media, and media services, is expanding in value as internet usage among the middle class increases [14]. - Continuous algorithm improvements enhance platforms' abilities to target customers and track advertising costs, although competition for user attention necessitates increased investment in engaging content [15]. Streaming Video - Investment in customer acquisition and content production is rising, prompting streaming platforms to seek new revenue models [17]. - Developing countries may provide incremental growth in subscription and advertising revenue for streaming services, with projections indicating over 1 billion households subscribing to long-form video services by 2040 [18]. Shared Autonomous Vehicles - The advent of autonomous driving technology may reduce the necessity for personal vehicle ownership [19]. - By 2040, shared autonomous vehicles could account for 25%-51% of shared mobility revenue [20]. Space Economy - The world is on the brink of entering a space economy era, with advancements in reusable rocket technology transforming the aerospace industry [21][22]. Cybersecurity - Cybercrime caused direct economic losses of approximately $950 billion in 2020, with indirect losses potentially reaching $4-6 trillion [24]. - Increasing awareness of cybersecurity has led companies to enhance their investments in this area [25]. Batteries - Significant advancements in battery technology have tripled energy density over the past few decades [26]. - The global energy transition is driving demand for batteries, particularly in electric vehicles, energy storage, and consumer electronics, with EVs expected to represent over 80% of the battery market by 2040 [28]. Video Games - By 2030, an estimated 40% of the global population may become video game players [30]. - New gaming models, such as mobile and cloud gaming, are accelerating market growth, with free-to-play games generating substantial revenue [32]. Robotics - The integration of AI with robotics is creating significant expectations for humanoid robots, which are anticipated to become "ultimate intelligent agents" [33]. Industrial and Consumer Biotechnology - Breakthroughs in gene editing and other technologies are expected to accelerate the application of biotechnology in agriculture, alternative proteins, consumer products, and bio-materials [37]. Modular Construction - Modular construction methods, which involve prefabricating building components for on-site assembly, can significantly enhance construction efficiency [38]. Nuclear Fission Power - The development of safer, smaller modular reactors may complement renewable energy sources, with commitments from over 20 countries to double nuclear energy production by 2050 [40]. Air Traffic - Electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles and delivery drones represent significant technological changes in air traffic [41]. Obesity Treatment Drugs - The prevalence of obesity is projected to rise from 15% in 2020 to 24% by 2035, indicating a potential market for effective weight loss products [43].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, certain industries are thriving and generating substantial profits, particularly in the context of Japan's "lost 30 years" and its implications for various sectors [3]. Group 1: Economic Trends and Opportunities - The concept of a "low-desire society" does not equate to a lack of opportunities, as there are still significant business prospects available [4]. - The article identifies "consumption stratification" and "demand migration" as the largest commercial opportunities in the current market [5]. - As consumers shift away from purchasing homes and luxury goods, money is flowing into the second-hand economy, with notable growth in Japan's second-hand luxury market represented by companies like Daikokuya [6]. - In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing significant business growth in the second-hand market [7]. Group 2: Emerging Consumer Trends - The article highlights the rise of the pet economy, noting that while young people may not be having children, they are willing to spend on premium pet products [11]. - Companies like Inaba in Japan and Guobao (Zhongchong) in China are seeing strong stock performance due to the growing demand for pet food and related services [12]. - The adult care market is also expanding, with Japan's adult diaper market surpassing $10 billion, indicating a significant growth potential for similar products in China [16][18]. - Health-conscious food and beverage products are gaining traction, with brands like Suntory and Meiji seeing substantial growth due to changing population demographics and rising health awareness [21]. Group 3: Lifestyle and Emotional Spending - The "beauty economy" is thriving, with products like collagen supplements and home beauty devices achieving significant sales, indicating that consumers prioritize beauty even in challenging economic times [23]. - Outdoor leisure activities are becoming popular, with brands like Snow Peak in Japan and various Chinese outdoor brands experiencing rapid sales growth [25][26]. - The emotional economy is also on the rise, with brands like Labubu and Rio catering to consumers' desires for emotional fulfillment and experiences [28][29]. - The "lazy economy" reflects a trend where younger generations prefer convenience, leading to increased demand for frozen foods and smart home appliances that save time [33][35]. Group 4: Market Resilience and Strategic Insights - The article argues that the current economic climate, often perceived as a "winter," presents opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors [39]. - Companies that can identify and capitalize on these emerging trends are likely to emerge as winners in the low-desire era, as time-saving solutions may hold more commercial value than cost-saving measures [36].

Bernard Arnault appointed his son Antoine to LVMH’s executive committee, another strong sign that he intends for his children to play an important role in the future of the luxury goods conglomerate https://t.co/o6WjiTxzql ...

消息面上，泡泡玛特创始人王宁近日在其年会上公布了2025年度核心数据：泡泡玛特全球员工伙伴超1 万人、注册会员超1亿人、LABUBU全年销量超1亿只、全品类全IP产品销量超4亿只，业务覆盖100+国 家和地区、全球门店超700家、拥有6大供应链基地。华西证券（002926）指出，公司年会回顾了2025年 的关键突破与高光时刻，也为即将启程的2026年勾勒出更清晰的方向与想象空间。近期公司多款新品在 国内和海外取得亮眼表现，预计公司业绩有望迎来新年开门红，看好IP运营平台长期商业价值。 泡泡玛特(09992)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.1%，报255.6港元，成交额22.86亿港元。 摩根士丹利认为，泡泡玛特今年在产品设计方面将迎来更多惊喜，而集团旗下IP产品Labubu与Moynat 的合作、据报Labubu电影将由索尼影业制作，加上LVMH中国区CEO加入公司董事会，显示泡泡玛特的 文化影响力日益受到顶尖行业领导者的认可，并相信公司已为其即将推出的新产品争取到更有效的营销 资源，这对提升其IP受欢迎程度至关重要。该行认为随着中国及海外市场销售动能持续，加上产品线扩 展良好和以IP为中心的新举措，可能会迎来估值 ...