昨晚美股低开低走后全天弱势，截至收盘道指下跌0.46%，纳指下跌0.38%，标指下跌0.3%。盘面上银 行股普跌，科技股分化转弱，中概股大跳水，黄金反转走强。 银行股延续弱势，其中联合银行下跌1.68%，齐昂银行下跌1.07%，花旗集团下跌1.12%，美国银行、花 旗集团、摩根大通等股均小幅收跌；高盛逆势上涨1.15%，摩根士丹利上涨0.7%。 科技股分化转弱，其中META下跌2.46%，特斯拉下跌1.35%，英特尔下跌1.31%，苹果下跌1.3%，英伟 达、苹果、亚马逊等股均小幅收跌；谷歌逆势上涨1.61%，超威公司上涨2.18%，高通上涨0.64%。 中概股高开低走后全天震荡下行，截至收盘中国金龙下跌0.69%。其中理想汽车大跌6.2%，京东下跌 3.01%，爱奇艺、贝壳、阿里巴巴、蔚来、小鹏汽车、百度等多股跌幅均在2%上方。 COMEX黄金低开高走后一路拉升，截止收盘上涨0.46%报3325.3美元/盎司。盘中最低报3305.8美元/盎 司，最高报3332.4美元/盎司。 理财就是一场修行，有人修有人度，结果就是看谁踩准了点，把握住了机会。 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged, keeping the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change since January [2][4] - There was a notable internal division within the Federal Reserve, with two members voting against the decision to keep rates unchanged, advocating for an immediate rate cut, which is the first occurrence of multiple dissenting votes since 1993 [2][5] - Following the announcement, U.S. stock indices experienced a significant drop, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.38% and the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.12% [2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that no decisions have been made regarding the September meeting, emphasizing the need to evaluate the latest economic data and trade policy impacts, particularly concerning tariffs and inflation [4][5] - Powell noted that while there is uncertainty, the U.S. economy remains generally robust, with a low unemployment rate and a labor market close to full employment [7] - Recent data suggests a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, primarily due to reduced consumer spending, although business investments in equipment and intangible assets have increased compared to last year [7] Group 3: Inflation and Market Reactions - Powell stated that inflation has significantly decreased since mid-2022 but remains slightly above the long-term target of 2%, with the overall personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price rising by 2.5% over the past 12 months [7][8] - The market's expectations for a rate cut in September diminished after Powell's remarks, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 64% to 46% [5] - Gold prices fell over 1.5% in response to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Powell's comments [9] Group 4: Corporate Performance - Microsoft reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue, with Q4 revenue increasing by 18% year-over-year to $64.7 billion, marking the fastest growth in over three years [12] - The company's net profit rose from $22.04 billion to $27.23 billion year-over-year, and Azure revenue grew by 39%, exceeding analyst expectations [12] - Following the earnings report, Microsoft's market capitalization surpassed $4 trillion, making it the second company to achieve this milestone after Nvidia [10][12]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged, keeping the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change since January [3] - There was a notable internal division within the Federal Reserve, with two governors voting against the decision to keep rates unchanged, which is the first occurrence of multiple dissenting votes since 1993 [3][2] - Following the announcement, major U.S. stock indices experienced a significant drop, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.38% and the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.12% [3] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Inflation - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that no decisions have been made regarding the September meeting, emphasizing the need to evaluate the latest economic data and trade policy impacts, particularly concerning tariffs and inflation [6] - Powell noted that while there is uncertainty, the overall U.S. economy remains robust, with the unemployment rate at a low level and the labor market close to full employment [8] - Inflation has significantly decreased since mid-2022 but remains slightly above the long-term target of 2%, with the overall personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price rising by 2.5% over the past 12 months [8][9] Group 3: Market Reactions - The market's expectations for a rate cut in September decreased after Powell's comments, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 64% to 46% [6] - Gold prices fell over 1.5% in response to the Federal Reserve's decisions and Powell's statements [9] Group 4: Microsoft Performance - Microsoft reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter, with revenue increasing by 18% year-over-year to $64.7 billion, marking the fastest growth in over three years [15] - The company's net profit rose from $22.04 billion to $27.23 billion year-over-year, and Azure revenue grew by 39%, exceeding analyst expectations [15] - Following the earnings report, Microsoft's stock price surged, pushing its market capitalization to approximately $4.1 trillion, making it the second company to surpass the $4 trillion mark after Nvidia [12][15]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged, with notable internal dissent among board members, marking the first time since 1993 that multiple members voted against the decision [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-2 to keep the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change since January [4]. - Board members Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller opposed the decision, advocating for an immediate rate cut, highlighting significant internal disagreement [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, U.S. stock indices experienced a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.38%, the S&P 500 down by 0.12%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.15% [5][6]. - The closing figures for the indices were: Dow Jones at 44,461.28, Nasdaq at 21,129.67, and S&P 500 at 6,362.90 [7]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that no decisions have been made regarding the September meeting, emphasizing the need to evaluate the latest economic data and trade policy impacts [10]. - The market's expectations for a rate cut in September decreased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 64% to 46% [10]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - Powell noted that while the U.S. economy remains generally robust, recent data indicates a slowdown in economic activity, primarily due to reduced consumer spending [13][14]. - Inflation rates have significantly decreased since mid-2022 but remain slightly above the long-term target of 2%, with the overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 2.5% over the past 12 months [14]. Group 5: Gold Market Impact - The decision by the Federal Reserve and Powell's comments led to a significant drop in gold prices, which fell by over 1.5% [15][16]. Group 6: Microsoft Performance - Microsoft reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue, with a market capitalization surpassing $4 trillion, making it the second company to achieve this milestone after Nvidia [18][21]. - For the fourth fiscal quarter, Microsoft’s revenue increased by 18% year-over-year to $64.7 billion, marking the fastest growth in over three years [23]. - Azure revenue grew by 39% in the fourth quarter, exceeding analyst expectations, with projections for Azure and other cloud services to exceed $75 billion in fiscal year 2025, a 34% increase from the previous fiscal year [23].

Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm's recent quarterly earnings report showed total revenue slightly above expectations, but the weakness in mobile business revenue exceeded Wall Street's forecasts, leading to a significant post-earnings stock decline [1][6]. Financial Data - Revenue: In Q2, Qualcomm reported non-GAAP adjusted revenue of $10.37 billion, a year-over-year increase of 10%, with guidance for Q3 set between $9.9 billion and $10.7 billion, while analyst expectations were at $10.33 billion [4]. - EPS: The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q2 was $2.77, reflecting a 19% year-over-year growth, with guidance for Q3 EPS between $2.60 and $2.80, compared to analyst expectations of $2.72 [5]. - EBT: The earnings before tax (EBT) for Q2 was $3.54 billion, a 17% increase year-over-year [7]. Segment Revenue - QCT: The semiconductor business, which includes mobile, automotive, and IoT chip products, generated $8.99 billion in Q2, a year-over-year increase of 11% [8]. - QTL: The technology licensing business reported revenue of $1.32 billion in Q2, a 4% year-over-year increase [9]. Performance Guidance - Revenue: For Q3, Qualcomm expects revenue between $10.3 billion and $11.1 billion, with analyst expectations at $10.61 billion. The QCT revenue guidance is between $9 billion and $9.6 billion, while QTL guidance is between $1.25 billion and $1.45 billion [12]. - EPS: The expected adjusted EPS for Q3 is between $2.75 and $2.95, with analyst expectations at $2.84 [13]. Business Performance Insights - Qualcomm's revenue growth slowed to 10% in Q2 from 15% in Q1, with mobile business revenue increasing by 7%, which was below analyst expectations of nearly 10% [14][15]. - The core mobile business revenue grew by 7% to $6.33 billion, accounting for 61% of total revenue, significantly lower than the 12% growth in Q1 [15]. - Automotive revenue grew by 21% to $980 million, while IoT revenue increased by 24% to $1.68 billion, although both growth rates were lower than in the previous quarter [17]. Strategic Insights - Qualcomm's CEO highlighted the company's AI strategy, emphasizing the importance of manufacturing chips for devices like Meta's smart glasses, which aligns with the vision of "personal AI" [18].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change [1] - The Fed's statement indicated a slowdown in U.S. economic growth in the first half of the year, suggesting potential grounds for future rate cuts if the trend continues [1] - Two Fed governors voted against the rate decision, reflecting external pressures, particularly from President Trump, who advocated for lower rates [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Fed Chair Powell stated it is too early to determine if a rate cut will occur in September, emphasizing the need for more economic information before making a decision [2] - Experts predict that the Fed may not cut rates until December, as inflation is expected to rise and economic growth to slow, indicating a cautious approach [3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Gold prices fell over 1.5%, dropping below $1,280 per ounce, with significant declines in U.S. gold and silver companies [4] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia rising over 2% and Apple declining more than 1% [5] - Several tech companies reported strong earnings, with Qualcomm's adjusted net profit at $2.67 billion (up 25%), Microsoft's net profit at $27.2 billion (up 24%), and META's net profit at $18.34 billion (up 36%) [6] Group 4: Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.82%, with many Chinese concept stocks experiencing declines, including NIO and New Oriental dropping over 4% [7] Group 5: Copper Market - Following President Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products, New York copper prices plummeted over 18% [8]

据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月30日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。 这一决定符合市场预期，也是今年美联储货币政策会议连续第五次决定维持利率不变。 美联储政策声明指出，今年上半年美国经济增长"有所放缓"，若这一趋势持续，可能为未来降息提供依据。但声明同时表示"经济前景不确定性仍然高 企，通胀和就业目标均面临风险"。分析认为，这种表述反映出美联储的审慎态度——在通胀和就业路径更加明晰之前不愿轻易降息。 值得注意的是，本次议息会30多年来首次出现有2位美联储理事在利率决议中投反对票。分析指出，这说明在以共识为导向的美联储，美国总统特朗普公 开施压要求其降息的影响正在显现。 据悉，负责美联储监管事务的副主席米歇尔.鲍曼和理事克里斯托弗.沃勒均投下反对票。此二人均由特朗普任命，倾向于在此次会议上将联邦基金利率目 标区间下调25个基点。 美国总统特朗普当天稍早前曾表示，维持高利率正在伤害民众，美联储应该降低利率。 整体而言，美联储或宜迟不宜早，并不需要在当前的环境下急于降息。芝加哥联储编制的衡量美国整体金融环境的指数已降至三年多来的最低水平， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve's policy statement indicates a slowdown in U.S. economic growth in the first half of the year, which may provide grounds for future rate cuts if the trend continues [1]. - The recent meeting saw two Federal Reserve governors voting against the decision to maintain rates, highlighting the influence of external pressures, particularly from President Trump, who has called for rate cuts [1][2]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that it is too early to determine if a rate cut will occur in September, emphasizing the need for more economic information before making a decision [4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Experts predict that the Federal Reserve may not lower rates until December, with expectations that inflation will rise and economic growth will slow down, leading to a more cautious approach [6]. - The Chicago Fed's index measuring the overall financial environment has dropped to its lowest level in over three years, indicating a relatively loose financial environment despite the high rates [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's statements, the probability of a rate cut in September decreased from approximately 65% to just below 50% [4]. - Gold prices fell over 1.5%, dropping below $3280 per ounce, while U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with significant declines in precious metal companies [8][9]. - The copper market reacted negatively to President Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products, leading to an 18% drop in copper prices [16].

Core Insights - Qualcomm's CEO stated that the company is in contact with multiple potential clients and is currently engaged in in-depth discussions with a leading hyperscale data center chip supplier [1] Group 1 - Qualcomm is maintaining communication with several potential customers [1] - The company is in detailed negotiations with a prominent hyperscale data center chip supplier [1]

高通(QCOM.O)预计第四季度营收为103亿- 111亿美元，市场预估为106.4亿美元。 ...