证券研究报告 | 2025年12月12日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-11 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3873.31 | 13147.38 | 4552.18 | 13968.17 | 3831.12 | 1325.83 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.69 | -1.26 | -0.86 | -1.42 | -1.49 | -1.54 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 7643.50 | 10927.62 | 4324.31 | 3540.74 | 5132.25 | 532.40 | 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 策略快评:AI 赋能资产配置（三十一）-对冲基金怎么用 AI 做投资 策略快评:AI 赋能资产配置（三十）-投研效率革命已至，但 AI 边界在 哪？ 行业与公司 化工行业快评:2026 年度制冷剂配额核发公示点评-2026 年制冷剂配额 公示，年底配额调整幅度较小 食品饮料行业 2 ...

中央经济工作会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增 量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。 机构人士表示，2026年财政政策仍有发力空间，货币政策会采用多种结构性工具，为高质量发展提供更 加精准有效的支撑。在有力高效的政策支撑下，2026年中国经济有望继续保持高质量发展的良好势头， 资本市场行稳致远基础进一步巩固。 保持必要的财政赤字 会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财政 科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，我国财政将继续保持一定的支持力度和支出强度，2026年财政赤字率 或维持在4%，对应财政赤字规模将提升至6万亿元左右。以短期视角看，预计2026年地方专项债新增额 度将有所增加，同时会在适当时机继续推出新型政策性金融工具，支持地方优质项目的投资建设，起到 推动投资止跌回稳的效果。 "2026年财政政策仍有发力空间。"财信证券首席经济学家袁闯预计，2026年财政赤字率在3.5%-4%，中 央加杠杆仍将是财政政策发力的重要方向。 科技成长 ...

中央经济工作会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增 量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。 机构人士表示，2026年财政政策仍有发力空间，货币政策会采用多种结构性工具，为高质量发展提供更 加精准有效的支撑。在有力高效的政策支撑下，2026年中国经济有望继续保持高质量发展的良好势头， 资本市场行稳致远基础进一步巩固。 保持必要的财政赤字 ● 本报记者 吴玉华 刘英杰 谭丁豪 会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。要增强宏观政策取向一致性和有效性。将 各类经济政策和非经济政策、存量政策和增量政策纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估。健全预期管理机制， 提振社会信心。 明明表示，明年的政策制定可能不会过度关注短期内的刺激效果，更多着眼于"十五五"时期整体经济的 长远发展规划，既关注新增政策的出台，也重视已有政策的落实落细，体现对宏观政策协同以及落地效 果的重视。 "在政策取向上，会议提出'提质增效'。"张文朗认为，这个要求的内涵是让财政、货币、产业等政 ...

Core Viewpoint - Southwest Securities, in collaboration with Hang Seng Electronics and Huawei, has launched an integrated tablet-based counter system that meets domestic adaptation requirements, enhancing service efficiency and customer experience in the industry [1][4]. Group 1: System Features and Benefits - The new system integrates traditional counter services into a portable tablet, allowing staff to provide mobile services and support high-net-worth clients outside the office, currently covering 81 core business functions [2][3]. - The system transforms the interaction model from "face-to-face" to "shoulder-to-shoulder," enhancing interactivity and trust, which improves customer satisfaction [2]. - The system supports a combination of business acceptance functions, allowing flexible configuration of services based on high-frequency scenarios, catering to diverse customer needs [2][3]. Group 2: Technical and Operational Aspects - The system connects multiple reception channels, enabling seamless integration of counter PC, witness PAD, and customer self-service terminals, simplifying operations and enhancing data sharing [3]. - A full-stack domestic solution has been developed, ensuring a self-controlled technical system for stable financial operations, with a focus on security measures across identity authentication, data protection, device management, and operational auditing [3]. - The user interface has been optimized with a minimalist design, allowing staff to configure frequently used functions according to business needs, which aligns with actual work rhythms [3]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The successful launch of the tablet-based counter system transforms long-standing service pain points into innovative opportunities and positions the company to leverage domestic requirements as a competitive advantage [4]. - Southwest Securities aims to continue deepening collaboration with Hang Seng Electronics and Huawei to provide safer, more efficient, and convenient financial services, thereby creating value for investors and driving industry innovation [4].

智通财经APP获悉，西南证券发布研报称，民营火箭发射情况以及政策的支持力度对板块走势影响较 大。当前我国商业航天还处于初步发展阶段，民营火箭企业发展情况受到市场极高的关注，民营火箭运 载能力的拓展在一定程度上决定了我国商业航天产业链的发展速度，同时国家政策的支持能够有效破解 行业发展关键难题，助力商业航天发展，该行建议投资者持续关注板块发展，推荐相关标的霍莱沃 (688682.SH)。 西南证券主要观点如下： 民营火箭公司活跃，助力我国卫星组网 当前计划的数量和当下发射规模、实际运载能力存在数量级上的差距，"星多箭少"问题凸显。中国商业 航天市场竞争格局为"国家队+民间队"双线发展。2024年，中国共完成68次火箭发射，其中国家队占比 82.4%，民营火箭公司占比17.65%。2025年开始我国多款民营火箭进入首飞，逐步解决运力问题，同时 在可回收火箭领域，民营企业正在积极布局，12月3日朱雀三号(蓝箭航天研制的可重复使用液氧甲烷火 箭)，完成首飞，按程序完成飞行任务且二级进入预定轨道。蓝箭航天公司创始人、CEO张昌武曾预 测，随着可回收火箭技术成熟，中国商业航天运输成本将降至每公斤3万元以下，较传统火箭的每 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the development of private rocket companies and the support from policies significantly impact the commercial aerospace sector in China [1] - The commercial aerospace industry in China is still in its early stages, with high market attention on the development of private rocket companies, which influences the speed of the industry chain's growth [1] - The report suggests that investors should continue to monitor the sector's development and recommends the stock of Holoway (688682.SH) as a potential investment opportunity [1] Group 2 - In 2024, a total of 263 space launch missions were executed globally, marking an 18% year-on-year increase, with China and the U.S. accounting for 86% of the total launches [1] - By the end of 2024, the U.S. is expected to have 75.9% of the total spacecraft in orbit globally, while China will have 1,094 spacecraft, representing only 9.4% of the global total [1] - The competition for satellite orbital positions and key frequency resources is governed by the "first come, first served" principle, and China is accelerating its efforts to catch up with initiatives like the "G60 Star Chain" and GW constellation projects [1] Group 3 - The current disparity between planned rocket launches and actual launch capacity highlights the "many stars, few rockets" issue in China's commercial aerospace market [2] - In 2024, China completed 68 rocket launches, with the national team accounting for 82.4% and private rocket companies for 17.65% [2] - Starting in 2025, several private rockets are expected to make their maiden flights, gradually addressing the capacity issue, while private companies are actively developing reusable rocket technology [2]

Group 1 - Jiangsu Xihua New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Xihua Technology" or "the Company") is conducting an initial public offering (IPO) and listing on the main board according to various regulations issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Shanghai Stock Exchange [1] - The IPO will be managed by Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. as the sponsor and joint lead underwriter, along with Southwest Securities Co., Ltd. as a joint lead underwriter [2][4] - The issuance method includes a combination of strategic placement to participating investors, offline inquiry-based placement for qualified investors, and online issuance to the public investors holding non-restricted A-shares and non-restricted depository receipts [2]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Xihua New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. has received approval for its initial public offering (IPO) of A-shares and will be listed on the main board, with the issuance of 100 million shares at a price of 10.10 yuan per share [1][6]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The total number of shares to be issued is 100 million, all of which are new shares for public offering [1]. - The issuance will combine strategic placement, offline inquiry placement, and online pricing issuance [2]. - The strategic placement will involve senior management and core employees through a specific asset management plan [3]. Group 2: Pricing and Valuation - The determined issuance price is 10.10 yuan per share, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.62 times based on the 2024 earnings before non-recurring gains and losses [6][7]. - The issuance price is below the median and weighted average of the remaining quotes from offline investors after the highest bids were excluded, which was 10.2549 yuan per share [7]. - The average static P/E ratio for the general equipment manufacturing industry is reported at 43.21 times as of December 9, 2025 [7]. Group 3: Fundraising and Use of Proceeds - The expected total fundraising amount is 10.1 billion yuan, which is lower than the previously disclosed fundraising requirement of 1.4978426 billion yuan [11]. - After deducting issuance costs, the net amount expected to be raised is approximately 925.77 million yuan [11]. Group 4: Lock-up Periods and Trading - The shares issued in the online offering will have no circulation restrictions and can be traded immediately upon listing [11]. - For offline investors, 10% of the allocated shares will be subject to a six-month lock-up period, while 90% will be tradable immediately [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Sansheng Industrial Co., Ltd. is undergoing a capital reserve conversion to increase its share capital as part of its restructuring plan, which has been approved by the court [4][5][6]. Group 1: Capital Reserve Conversion - The average price for the capital reserve conversion is set at 4.28 yuan per share, with adjustments to the opening reference price based on the stock's closing price on the registration date [2][15]. - The stock's closing price on December 8, 2025, was 4.85 yuan per share, which is higher than the average price, necessitating an adjustment to the opening reference price for December 10, 2025, calculated to be 4.64 yuan per share [3][16]. - The total number of shares before the conversion is 432,000,000, and the conversion will increase the total shares to 684,102,041, with 252,102,041 shares being issued [6][10]. Group 2: Debt Settlement and Investor Involvement - Of the newly issued shares, 160,000,000 shares will be allocated to introduce restructuring investors, including Hebei Jiheng Group, which will become the controlling shareholder [6][7]. - The restructuring investors are required to provide a cash payment of 254.2 million yuan for the shares, with specific allocations for each investor [6][7]. - An additional 92,102,041 shares will be used to settle debts with ordinary creditors through a share-for-debt arrangement [9]. Group 3: Restructuring Process - The court approved the restructuring plan on November 21, 2025, allowing the company to enter the execution phase of the plan [5][6]. - The stock will be suspended for one trading day on December 9, 2025, and will resume trading on December 10, 2025 [11]. - The restructuring plan includes provisions for the management of the company by appointed professionals and outlines the financial support to be provided by the new controlling shareholder [4][7].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Xihua New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. has received approval for its initial public offering (IPO) of RMB ordinary shares (A-shares) and listing on the main board, with the application reviewed by the Shanghai Stock Exchange Listing Review Committee and registered by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1] Group 1: IPO Details - The IPO will consist of 100 million shares, representing 21.74% of the total share capital post-issuance [2] - The initial strategic placement will involve 30 million shares, accounting for 30% of the total issuance, with any difference from the final strategic placement being allocated back to the offline issuance [2] - The initial offline issuance will be 49 million shares, making up 70% of the remaining shares after the initial strategic placement, while the online issuance will be 21 million shares, representing 30% of the remaining shares [2] Group 2: Roadshow Information - A roadshow will be held to provide investors with information about the company and the IPO arrangements [2] - The online roadshow is scheduled for December 11, 2025, from 14:00 to 17:00 [2] - The roadshow will be accessible via the Shanghai Stock Exchange Roadshow Center and the Shanghai Securities Journal website [2]