专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"启幕 【相关阅读】第七届新浪财经金麒麟最佳分析师荣誉榜 第七届新浪财经金麒麟最佳分析师荣誉榜出炉，传媒行业第一名为广发证券旷实团队。 新浪财经整理旷实最新观点如下： 广发证券传媒行业专题：从流量价值、商业模式、AI赋能探寻漫剧行业的演进 风险提示。面向短剧、漫剧的审查政策进一步收紧；短剧项目收益的不确定性；AI相关技术进展缓慢 广发证券-传媒行业海外电商趋势研究：区域竞争加剧，中国玩家商业模式升级 中国在全球市场位居电商规模第一名，新兴市场电商规模增速更快。从全球电商市场规模的绝对值上 看，中国位居全球第一位，其次是美国、英国、韩国等国家。经济水平发展程度是决定电商市场绝对规 模的因素之一，社会零售总额高、经济水平较高，则电商有更大的发展空间。在过去5年时间里，东 欧、拉美、中东和非洲以及亚太区域的电商规模复合增长率高于世界平均水平，而北美和西欧则落后于 平均水平。虽然在全球不同区域内推动电商发展的主要驱动力是相似的，但由于该业务的本地化运营属 性比较强，我们认为电商依然呈现不同区域内有不同的领先玩家的模式，暂时没有出现一家独大或者全 球走向整合的趋势。 展望202 ...

Core Viewpoint - Mango Excellent Media's stock has experienced a decline, with a current price of 25.40 CNY per share, reflecting a year-to-date drop of 4.76% and a 14.25% decrease over the past 20 trading days [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Mango Excellent Media reported a revenue of 9.063 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 11.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.016 billion CNY, down 29.67% compared to the previous year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 1.751 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 999 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of October 31, 2025, the number of shareholders for Mango Excellent Media increased to 39,300, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased to 26,014 shares [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with notable reductions in holdings from several funds, including Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and E Fund [3] Market Activity - On December 1, 2025, the stock saw a trading volume of 204 million CNY, with a turnover rate of 0.78% and a total market capitalization of 47.516 billion CNY [1] - The stock's recent trading activity indicates a net inflow of 6.526 million CNY from major funds, with significant buying and selling activity observed [1] Business Overview - Mango Excellent Media, established on December 28, 2005, and listed on January 21, 2015, primarily operates in the internet video business through Mango TV, which accounts for 81.87% of its revenue [1] - The company is categorized under the media industry, specifically in digital media and video media, and is involved in various concepts such as blind box, deep learning, ultra-high definition, artificial intelligence, and the metaverse [1]

zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -13% -7% -1% 4% 10% 16% 22% 28% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.07 2025.11 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,888.60 | 0.34 | 深证成指 | 12,984.08 | 0.85 | | | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | 沪深 | 300 | 4,526.66 | 0.25 | | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | 中证 | 100 | 4,397.36 | 0.25 | | 中证 | 500 | 7,031.55 | 1.15 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media and internet industry [3] Core Insights - The film market is primarily supply-driven, with strong performances from quality imported films like "Zootopia 2" and "Avatar 3" expected to boost box office growth in China [3][4] - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in film production and distribution, as well as cinema chains [3][4] - The AI application sector is witnessing significant advancements, particularly in content production, which is expected to enhance IP content and reduce costs [5][6] - The internet sector is seeing rapid growth with new AI applications, such as Alibaba's "Qianwen APP," which quickly gained popularity [7] - The gaming industry is experiencing a surge in new game licenses, with a record 184 licenses issued in November, indicating a robust pipeline for future releases [8][26] Summary by Sections Film and Television - "Zootopia 2" has achieved a total box office of 1.3 billion yuan, with a single-day box office of over 700 million yuan on November 29, 2025 [3][39] - The report highlights the strong performance of imported films and suggests monitoring related production and distribution companies [4] - In the television sector, new policies are expected to foster content creation and development, benefiting long-form video platforms and production companies [4] AI Applications - The launch of Nano Banana Pro enhances content production capabilities, indicating a shift towards AI-driven content creation [5] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI in transforming content production paradigms, particularly in the comic and animation sectors [5][6] Internet Sector - Alibaba's "Qianwen APP" achieved over 10 million downloads within a week of its public release, showcasing the rapid adoption of AI applications [7] - The report suggests that leading internet companies are strategically adjusting their organizational structures to enhance their competitive edge in AI [7] Gaming Industry - A total of 184 game licenses were issued in November, with 178 being for domestic games, reflecting a healthy growth trajectory for the gaming sector [8][26] - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in leading gaming companies that are innovating with AI and new game releases [8] New Business Models - The report discusses the rise of "group broadcasting" as a new business model that shifts the industry towards systematic growth rather than relying on individual charisma [9] - Companies directly involved in group broadcasting and those benefiting from its growth are highlighted as potential investment targets [9] Market Performance - The media sector saw a 4.23% increase in stock performance from November 24 to November 28, 2025, ranking fourth among all industries [15][18] - The report provides insights into the performance of various media companies, with notable gains in stocks such as Reader Media and BlueFocus [18][21]

Group 1 - The total box office of "Zootopia 2" has exceeded 1.2 billion yuan, with a single-day box office of 552.7 million yuan, making it the highest single-day box office for an imported film in Chinese history [1] - "Zootopia 2" is projected to reach a global box office of 2 billion USD (approximately 140 billion yuan), potentially becoming a significant boost for the winter movie market in 2025 [1] - The overall box office for 2025 has surpassed 47 billion yuan, with major films like "Nezha: The Devil Child Is Coming" leading the box office [2] Group 2 - The Chinese film industry has seen a recovery driven by the release of overseas blockbusters, with a focus on new film-related companies [2] - Companies involved in the distribution of "Zootopia 2" include China Film, which is participating in its release, and Citic Publishing, which has published various Disney-related works [3] - Several companies have reported positive stock performance, including China Film (+9.99%), Happiness Blue Sea (+6.06%), and Mango Super Media (+0.93%) [4]

Group 1 - The total box office of "Zootopia 2" has exceeded 1.2 billion yuan, making it the highest single-day box office for an imported film in Chinese history, surpassing "Avengers: Endgame" [1] - The global box office for "Zootopia 2" is projected to reach 2 billion USD (approximately over 140 billion yuan), potentially becoming a significant boost for the winter movie market in 2025 [1] - The overall box office for 2025 has surpassed 47 billion yuan, with major contributions from films like "Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child" and "Detective Chinatown 3" [2] Group 2 - The domestic film box office for 2024 reached 42.502 billion yuan, with domestic films accounting for 33.439 billion yuan, representing 78.68% of the total [2] - Companies like China Film and Citic Publishing are involved in the distribution and publication of "Zootopia 2" related content, indicating a strong collaboration with Disney [3] - Cat's Eye Entertainment, as the largest movie ticketing platform in China, is expected to benefit significantly from the recovery of the movie market [2]

Market Overview - The digital media sector increased by 0.37% on November 28, with *ST Fanli leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3888.6, up 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12984.08, up 0.85% [1] Stock Performance - *ST Fanli (600228) closed at 7.00, up 3.86% with a trading volume of 107,200 shares and a turnover of 74.26 million yuan [1] - Guomai Culture (600640) closed at 13.57, up 1.95% with a trading volume of 96,700 shares and a turnover of 130 million yuan [1] - 365 Network (300295) closed at 15.05, up 1.83% with a trading volume of 254,800 shares and a turnover of 377 million yuan [1] - Mango Super Media (300413) closed at 25.92, up 0.93% with a trading volume of 122,700 shares and a turnover of 316 million yuan [1] - People's Daily Online (603000) closed at 20.97, up 0.58% with a trading volume of 367,400 shares and a turnover of 766 million yuan [1] - Xinhua Net (603888) closed at 20.60, up 0.15% with a trading volume of 145,100 shares and a turnover of 298 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Chuanwang Media (300987) and Zhangyue Technology (603533) with minor fluctuations [1] Capital Flow - The digital media sector saw a net inflow of 33.47 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 11.33 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like People's Daily Online and Xinhua Net had significant capital movements, with People's Daily Online seeing a net inflow of 12 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Xinhua Net had a net inflow of 27.84 million yuan from institutional investors, indicating strong interest [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The media index increased by 2.46% as of November 26, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and other indices, which declined by 2.65%, 2.29%, and 4.48% respectively [3][13] - The report highlights a significant improvement in the policy environment for the media industry, with a more stable regulatory framework and supportive policies emerging [4][11] - AI applications are accelerating across various content sectors, including gaming, film, advertising, and publishing, contributing to performance improvements in the industry [4][11] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors benefiting from improved policy environments and accelerated AI applications, which are expected to enhance both valuations and performance [4][11] - Specific attention is recommended for high-growth sub-sectors such as gaming, film, and advertising [12] Market Review - As of November 26, 2025, the media sector's PE ratio (ttm, excluding negative values) stands at 28.85 times, significantly above the average PE of 24.20 times since 2022 [19] - The internet advertising and marketing sub-sector saw a notable increase of 14.64%, while the internet audio and video sector experienced a decline of 9.91% [3][13] Industry News - The report mentions the release of a new AI model by Google, Gemini 3, which is expected to enhance AI capabilities across various applications [20] - The National Development and Reform Commission has initiated plans to promote digital transformation in urban areas, emphasizing the role of AI in cultural and tourism sectors [20] Monthly Industry Data - In October 2025, the domestic film market generated a box office of 2.612 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.94% [23][24] - The gaming market in October 2025 reported revenues of 31.359 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.83% [44][45]

Group 1 - The core opportunity in the internet and media sectors for 2025 is centered around AI revaluation, particularly in cloud computing, and the globalization and youth-oriented trends in self-consumption, such as trendy toys, music, and concerts [3][4] - AI cloud capital expenditure (capex) is expected to expand in its second year, with a focus on return on investment (ROI) from AI investments, making capex/operating cash flow a key metric for investors [3][4] - Major companies to watch in the AI cloud space include Alibaba, Baidu, and Kingsoft Cloud, which are focusing on domestic production and infrastructure [3][12] Group 2 - The AI application landscape is shifting from conceptual discussions to a focus on commercial viability, with significant developments in AI advertising and video monetization expected in 2026 [3][4] - Tencent, Bilibili, Meitu, Kuaishou, and Focus Technology are highlighted as key players in the AI application ecosystem, with a particular emphasis on the monetization of chatbot applications and the evolution of AI video tools into community platforms [3][4] - The gaming sector is seeing structural opportunities driven by Generation Z and international expansion, with a focus on companies like Giant Network, Century Huatong, and Xindong Company [3][4] Group 3 - The self-consumption trend is expected to continue, with gaming, music, and trendy toys being key areas of growth, particularly as the market adjusts post-2025 [3][4] - The video sector is anticipated to reach a turning point, with policy stabilization and diverse monetization strategies being crucial for growth [3][4] - Companies such as Mango Super Media, Shanghai Film, and Reading Group are positioned to benefit from these trends [3][4] Group 4 - The report indicates a recovery in companies like Focus Media, Vision Source, and educational publishing firms, suggesting a positive outlook for these sectors [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous performance and valuation adjustments in the context of evolving market conditions [3][4] Group 5 - The domestic cloud computing market is witnessing increased capital expenditure from major internet companies, with Alibaba and Tencent leading the charge [18][19] - The report highlights the importance of measuring the health of cloud investments through the capex/operating cash flow ratio, with Tencent's ratio being notably lower than its peers [19][29] - AI-driven cloud services are expected to maintain higher profit margins compared to traditional cloud offerings, with a focus on internal workload efficiencies [29][30] Group 6 - The report outlines the competitive landscape of AI applications, noting that Chinese companies are making significant strides in the global market, particularly in productivity tools and content generation [34][35] - The emergence of ChatGPT as a multi-functional platform is reshaping the AI application ecosystem, with significant implications for user engagement and commercial applications [35][39] - Advertising remains a critical area for AI commercialization, with companies like Meta, Tencent, and Bilibili leveraging AI to enhance ad performance and efficiency [43][49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the media and internet industry, particularly highlighting leading companies such as Shenzhou Taiyue, Southern Media, and Tencent Holdings [1][2]. Core Insights - The media sector has experienced a decline of 1.39% in the past week, ranking third among all industries, while it has risen by 26.42% year-to-date, placing sixth overall. Despite recent market adjustments, the AI application segment within the media sector has shown strong performance, indicating significant future investment opportunities [1][9]. - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications across various fields, including gaming, music, healthcare, and finance, suggesting that 2026 will present substantial investment opportunities in this area [1][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The media industry index decreased by 1.39% from November 17 to November 23, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.90% during the same period [9]. - Individual stock performance showed significant gains for companies like Xuan Ya International (33.64%) and Fu Shi Holdings (32.12%), while others like Caesar Culture and Guangdian Network faced declines [12][14]. Film and Television Industry Data - The top films by box office for the week included "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle" with a weekly box office of 190.63 million and "Nowhere to Run" with 117.09 million [16][17]. - Upcoming films such as "Zootopia 2" are expected to generate significant interest, with over 2.28 million people marking it as a film they want to see [18]. Television Series Ratings - The top-rated television series included "Why He Is Still Single" on Shanghai Oriental TV with a rating of 1.571% and "Tang Dynasty Mystery" on Beijing TV with a rating of 1.367% [21][22]. - Online series such as "Tang Dynasty Mystery" and "He Is Still Single" ranked highest in viewership indices [25][26]. Game Sector Insights - Tencent dominated the iOS game sales chart with six titles, including "Teamfight Tactics" at the top [32][34]. - The Android game rankings also featured Tencent's "Delta Force" among the top titles [34]. Book Sector Highlights - The top-selling fiction books included "Red Rock" and "The Right Side of the River," while non-fiction bestsellers featured titles like "The Lazy Economy" [35][36].