Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in charter rates for VLCCs, which rose by 4.62% to $62,250 per day, and Cape rates increased by 5.37% to $26,475 per day, indicating a strong correlation between commodity prices and shipping rates [3]. - New ship prices are rising alongside second-hand ship prices, with the new ship composite index increasing by 0.07 to 184.76 points, suggesting a favorable market for shipbuilders [3]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the shipping market, particularly in oil and bulk shipping, with expectations of continued demand driven by geopolitical factors and commodity price fluctuations [3]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The shipping index increased by 1.76%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.38 percentage points [4]. - The coastal dry bulk freight index in China rose by 0.84%, while the Shanghai export container freight index fell by 7.39% [4]. Oil Shipping - VLCC rates are currently around $100,000 per day, with a recent decline of 11% in average rates to $105,090 per day, indicating potential volatility in the market [3]. - The report notes that while VLCC rates may adjust, smaller oil tanker rates remain supported due to high demand [3]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The report indicates a rebound in dry bulk rates, particularly driven by increased grain exports from South America, with the BDI index recording a 12.4% increase [3]. - Capesize rates increased by 16.1%, reflecting strong demand in the Pacific market [3]. Container Shipping - The report observes a seasonal decline in container shipping rates as the peak season ends, with the SCFI index dropping by 7.4% [3]. - The resumption of services in the Red Sea has been noted, but the market remains cautious due to geopolitical uncertainties [3]. Air Transportation - The report highlights a significant supply constraint in aircraft manufacturing, with an aging fleet and increasing passenger demand expected to enhance airline profitability [3]. - Airlines are recommended for investment due to their strong demand elasticity and potential for significant earnings growth [3]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report anticipates a concentration of market share and profits among leading express delivery companies, with a focus on ZTO Express and YTO Express [3]. - The logistics sector shows resilience, with steady growth in freight volumes reported [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, recommending stocks such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in charter rates for VLCCs, which rose by 4.62% to $62,250 per day, and Cape rates increased by 5.37% to $26,475 per day, indicating a strong correlation between commodity prices and shipping rates [4]. - New ship prices are rising alongside second-hand ship prices, with the new ship composite index increasing by 0.07 to 184.76 points, suggesting a favorable market for shipbuilders [4]. - The report notes that the oil tanker market remains robust, with VLCC rates averaging around $105,090 per day, despite a recent decline in rates due to increased supply [4]. - The dry bulk market is experiencing a rebound, with the BDI index recording a 12.4% increase to 1,762 points, driven by increased grain exports from South America [4]. - The air transport sector is expected to see significant improvements in profitability due to rising passenger volumes and constrained supply, marking a potential golden era for airlines [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market - The shipping market is experiencing a strong correlation with commodity prices, with VLCC and Cape rates showing significant increases [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of geopolitical factors and supply constraints in maintaining high shipping rates [4]. New Ship Prices - New ship prices are on the rise, reflecting the overall health of the shipping market, with a slight increase in the new ship composite index [4]. Oil Tanker Market - The oil tanker market remains strong, with high average rates for VLCCs and a stable demand despite recent fluctuations [4]. Dry Bulk Market - The dry bulk market is witnessing a rebound, particularly in the Capesize segment, driven by favorable export conditions from South America [4]. Air Transport Sector - The air transport sector is poised for significant growth, with airlines expected to benefit from increased passenger volumes and a constrained supply of aircraft [4]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The logistics sector is seeing a concentration of market share among leading companies, with a focus on firms like ZTO Express and YTO Express, which are expected to maintain their competitive advantages [4].

Core Viewpoint - The shipping and port sector experienced a slight decline of 0.16% on January 23, with China Merchants Energy leading the drop. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33% to close at 4136.16, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.79% to 14439.66 [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Tangshan Port (601000) saw a closing price of 4.20, with a gain of 3.96% and a trading volume of 888,400 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 369 million [1]. - Guangzhou Port (601228) closed at 3.75, up by 3.88%, with a trading volume of 589,400 shares and a transaction value of 218 million [1]. - China Merchants Energy (601872) closed at 10.81, down by 2.26%, with a trading volume of 945,200 shares and a transaction value of 1.029 billion [2]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The shipping and port sector experienced a net outflow of 377 million from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 332 million [2]. - Major stocks like AnTung Holdings (600179) had a net inflow of 32.5 million from main funds, while Xiamen Port (000905) saw a net inflow of 24.1 million [3]. - Guangzhou Port (601228) had a net inflow of 17.3 million from main funds, but also experienced a net outflow of 8.9 million from retail investors [3].

1月23日上午，辽宁省大连市政府新闻办公室举行新闻发布会。会上，发布了2025年全市经济运行情 况。2025年，大连全市地区生产总值10002.1亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.7%。 由此，大连成为东北首座GDP破万亿元城市。 填补东北地区万亿元GDP城市空白 辽宁大学校长余淼杰在接受经济日报记者采访时表示，这向外界传递出重要信息——东北经济的全面振 兴是非常有希望的，东北经济的明天会更好；大连已经成为带动东北经济高质量发展的龙头和对外开放 的窗口，彰显出示范作用和模范力量。 "实现GDP突破万亿元，标志着大连经济发展迈上新台阶、进入新阶段。"在东北财经大学东北全面振兴 研究院院长周学仁看来，这填补了东北地区万亿元GDP城市的空白，重塑区域发展信心，为东北全面振 兴注入强劲动力、提振发展信心。GDP突破万亿元大关为大连进一步发挥带动示范效应增添了底气，使 其在东北全面振兴进程中"跳高队"的角色定位更清晰、作用更凸显。 虽然GDP突破万亿元了，但这在全国来说并不鲜见。大连还有哪些瓶颈需要突破，如何走好经济高质量 发展之路？ 大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院教授李焱坦言，大连还面临着产业转型升级动能不足、高级要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil shipping sector has shown strong performance since early 2026, with a cumulative increase of over 20%, positioning it as a leading sector in the A-share market amid rising prices [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The leading oil shipping company, China Merchants Energy Shipping, has seen its stock price surpass the historical high set in 2007, nearly doubling from its low in 2025. Another major player, COSCO Shipping Energy, has also increased by nearly 50% from its 2025 low [5]. - The rise in stock prices for these leading companies aligns closely with the increase in oil shipping rates, which reached a five-year high in the fourth quarter of 2025 after hitting a multi-year low in July 2025 [5][7]. - In 2025, China Merchants Energy Shipping reported a net profit of 6-6.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%-29%, with the fourth quarter net profit showing a significant increase of 55%-90% [7]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil shipping market is characterized by a cyclical nature, requiring positive changes in both supply and demand to initiate a new cycle. Currently, the supply side is influenced by the age of vessels and operational efficiency, with a significant portion of the fleet being older than 20 years [8][9]. - The global fleet of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) is experiencing a decline in overall capacity, with older vessels facing operational inefficiencies and potential exit from compliant markets [9][12]. - On the demand side, the lifting of OPEC+ production cuts and increased production from countries like Brazil and Guyana have positively impacted oil shipping demand, extending average shipping distances and enhancing demand for oil transport [14][15]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The oil shipping industry is showing signs of entering a new upward cycle, supported by a tightening supply and recovering demand. Historical patterns suggest that significant price increases can occur when supply is reduced and demand increases simultaneously [15][19]. - The consolidation within the domestic oil shipping market has led to increased market concentration, with China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy being the top players globally [17][19]. - The current geopolitical landscape emphasizes energy security, which adds intrinsic value to the oil shipping sector, further supported by the cyclical recovery in shipping rates [19].

油气早盘强势拉升，消息面上，欧洲天然气基准价格自去年6月份以来首次突破每兆瓦时40欧元的关 口，交易商正应对全球异常寒冷天气带来的担忧。基准期货周三一度飙升11.5%，将今年以来的强劲涨 势推高至40%以上。 石油ETF鹏华(159697)，场外联接(A：019827；C：019828；I：022861)。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 石油ETF鹏华紧密跟踪国证石油天然气指数，国证石油天然气指数反映沪深北交易所石油天然气产业相 关上市公司的证券价格变化情况。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，国证石油天然气指数(399439)前十大权重股分别为中国石油、中国石 化、中国海油、杰瑞股份、广汇能源、招商轮船、新奥股份、九丰能源、中远海能、大众公用，前十大 权重股合计占比67.11%。 机构指出，这场强劲上涨得益于两大因素：一场特大冬季风暴对美国天然气出口构成的潜在威胁，以及 欧洲和亚洲地区气温持续走低。过去两周欧洲天然气市场剧烈震荡，燃料库存快速消耗引发对该地区脆 弱供应平衡的担忧，颠覆了市场情绪。投机者纷纷平仓空头头寸。当前价格虽仅为2022年能源危机期间 峰值的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current spot freight rates are influenced by several core factors, including demand per ton-mile, effective capacity supply, immediate market trends, and market sentiment between cargo and vessel parties [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Freight Rates - Demand per ton-mile is a primary factor affecting freight pricing [1] - Effective capacity supply plays a crucial role in determining freight rates [1] - Immediate market trends, whether upward or downward momentum, significantly impact pricing [1] - Market sentiment, reflecting the psychology of both cargo and vessel parties, is also a key influence [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The current market environment is favorable for shipowners and capacity holders [1]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网1月21日讯 ，招商轮船在接受调研者提问时表示，目前看，2026年对公司影响最大的还是油 轮板块，预计业绩弹性较大。干散货市场方面，从年初淡季市场表现和运费期货市场看，好望角船型有 望是今年主要亮点，公司干散货板块力争积极抓住市场机会。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that changes in crude oil supply and trade in certain hotspot regions have a complex impact on the oil tanker market [2] - A sustained reduction in heavy oil supply may lead domestic refineries to source oil products from alternative sources, resulting in structural adjustments in transportation demand [2] - There is a potential increase in long-distance compliance demand, which should be monitored as market changes are expected to become clearer after the Spring Festival [2]

证券日报网1月21日讯，招商轮船（601872）在接受调研者提问时表示，2026年VLCC等油轮运价波动 预计会较2025年更加剧烈，诸多结构性问题和短期供需不平衡可能导致现货运价短期出现大幅波动。目 前看，今年油轮市场的景气程度有望比2025年提升，改善动力预计来自合规市场需求的结构性增长，运 力端如果出现有效整合将有望进一步助力景气提升。2026年初，公司看到地缘风险的上升，亚洲原油进 口的长程化继续、印度减少部分地区原油进口、石油储备需求增加等均可能推动运价上行。另外近期韩 国船东Sinokor等行业玩家的动向值得高度关注，有可能导致VLCC油轮市场集中度的进一步提升和运作 模式的变化，对油轮市场供给结构、运费形成机制等均会产生重大影响，中长期影响也可能被市场低 估，从公司的角度看，目前这个变化似乎还没有引起大家足够重视。总体来看，需求方面，今年不论是 全球原油消费或储备需求并不悲观，预计整体需求有所提升，原油海运需求通常会好于原油需求增速； 供给方面，总体偏紧的情况持续，市场上实际可用的有效运力增长预计缓慢。 ...