国泰海通晨报 2025 年 09 月 15 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【宏观研究】：8 月社融增速拐头回落，主要和政府债的支撑减弱有关，而私人部门信贷依然有 待政策进一步提振。而且近月来，尽管信贷派生偏弱，M1 和 M2 同比反而持续走高。 2、【策略研究】：随着中国经济能见度的越来越高，中国市场的机会是广泛的，中国股市的"转 型牛"是全面的，年内 A/H 股指还有望走出新高。新兴科技是主线，周期金融是黑马。 3、【海外策略研究】：①交易行为上，借鉴历史外资在投资 AH 市场时往往会同向交易，但受特 定因素影响也会存在阶段性背离。②行业偏好上，外资偏好的是具有本土市场特色的优势核心资 产，例如中国金融资产、A 股成熟优势制造与港股互联网龙头。③个股选择上，外资偏好具有基 本面优势标的，且历史上 AH 溢价上升时往往推动外资更多流入港股。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推 ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index closed at 6584.29 points, down 0.05% from the previous close of 6587.47 points, after reaching an intraday high of 6600.21 points [1][2] - The Nasdaq Composite index rose 0.44% to 22141.1 points, marking its fifth consecutive day of record closing highs [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.59% to 45834.22 points [1] Weekly Performance - For the week, the S&P 500 index increased by 1.59%, the Dow Jones by 0.95%, and the Nasdaq by 2.03% [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The next key event for the U.S. stock market is the Federal Reserve's decision and Powell's press conference scheduled for next Wednesday [4] - Market expectations suggest 2-3 rate cuts this year, with uncertainty surrounding the meeting at the end of October [4] - Morgan Stanley predicts the Fed will cut rates at four consecutive meetings, while TD Securities anticipates a dovish stance due to a soft labor market [4] Stock Highlights - Notable stock performances include Tesla up 7.36%, Nvidia up 0.37%, Microsoft up 1.77%, and Apple up 1.76% [4] - Tesla's recent surge of 13.8% is linked to strong sales of the Model Y in China [5] - Apple's stock is boosted by the strong pre-sale of the iPhone 17 [5] IPO Market - This week saw six IPOs raising a total of $4 billion, marking the busiest week since 2021 [5] - Year-to-date, U.S. exchanges have raised $28.9 billion, still below the pre-pandemic average of $31.4 billion for the same period [5] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.11% on Friday but rose 5.5% for the week [5] - Individual stock performances include Alibaba down 0.24%, JD.com down 2.12%, and Baidu up 2.65% [5] Other Industry News - The U.S. government has initiated a pilot project to accelerate the deployment of eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) vehicles, positively impacting related stocks like Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation [6] - Apple Watch's new hypertension alert feature has received FDA approval and will launch in the U.S. market next week [7] - Several COVID-19 vaccine stocks, including Moderna and Pfizer, experienced declines due to reports linking child deaths to vaccine injections [8][9] - BlackRock's Rick Rieder is emerging as a potential candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair [10] - Tesla's chairman stated that only Elon Musk can lead the company into AI and robotics, although Musk may take on a different leadership role [11]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.43%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.09% at the close [1] Film and Entertainment Sector - The film and cinema sector saw a strong performance in the afternoon, with notable stocks such as China Film (600977) hitting the daily limit, marking its third consecutive day of gains [2] - Data from the National Film Administration indicates that the total box office for the 2025 summer season in mainland China reached 11.966 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.76%, and total audience attendance at 321 million, up 12.75% year-on-year [4] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector showed significant strength, with stocks like Chipone Technology hitting the daily limit and others such as Beijing Junzheng (300223) rising over 10% [4] - TSMC reported a revenue of 335.77 billion New Taiwan dollars for August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.9% [6] - The global semiconductor industry remains robust, with expectations for continued growth driven by AI and self-sufficiency initiatives [6] Pharmaceutical Sector - Hong Kong-listed drug company Jiatian Kang-B saw its stock price surge nearly 120% following the announcement of clinical trial approval for its core product, Tinengotinib, for treating specific breast cancer cases [7] - Kangfang Biotech's AK112 achieved its primary endpoint in a global Phase III clinical trial, as reported at the World Lung Cancer Conference [7] Technology Sector - Alibaba's stock rose over 5% after the announcement of its next-generation model architecture, Qwen3-Next, which includes significant improvements over its previous model [7]

南向资金流北水周四持续强力流入，港股通净流入金额 189.89 亿港元。港股 通 10 大成交活跃股中，北水净买入最多的是阿里巴巴 9988.HK、信达生物 1801.HK、中芯国际 981.HK；净卖出最多的是腾讯控股 700.HK、康方生物-B 9926.HK、美团 3690.HK。北向资金方面，9 月 11 日北向资金共成交 3152.67 亿元，占两市总成交额的 12.93%。寒武纪 688256.SH、恒瑞医药 600276.SH、 海光信息 688041.SH 位列沪股通成交前三，成交额分别为 45.70 亿、32.31 亿、26.21 亿；中际旭创 300308.SZ、新易盛 300502.SZ、胜宏科技 300476.SZ 位列深股通成交前三，成交额分别为 48.97 亿、39.02 亿、33.09 亿。 港股晨报 2025 年 9 月 12 日 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国证视点：港股指数有所调整，芯片逆市上扬 周四港股三大指数有所调整，恒生指数跌 0.43%，国企指数跌 0.73%，恒生科 技指数跌 0.24%。大市成交上升至 3,252.053 亿元，主板总卖空金额 ...

Market Strategy - The market has shown a strong rebound with significant volume, particularly in the technology sector [5][7] - The overall A-share index increased by 2.26%, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.65% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 5.15% [7] - The semiconductor and AI hardware sectors are experiencing notable growth, driven by increased demand for computing power [9] Industry Dynamics - In August 2025, China's battery production reached 139.6 GWh, marking a month-on-month increase of 4.4% and a year-on-year increase of 37.3% [30] - The automotive industry saw production and sales of 2.815 million and 2.857 million vehicles respectively in August 2025, with year-on-year growth of 13% and 16.4% [20] - The first mechanism electricity price bidding results were released, with solar projects achieving a mechanism price of 0.225 CNY/kWh [28] Company Tracking - Anqihome (600298.SH) reported a decline in raw material costs and an expected increase in overseas revenue, which currently accounts for over 40% of its income [32] - Bairun Co., Ltd. (002568.SZ) announced a transfer of 6% of its shares by the controlling shareholder, which will not affect the company's control [34] - Yipuli (002096.SZ) plans to invest 225 million CNY in a green blasting project, with the winning bid awarded to a related party [36]

行情速递 ①主板领涨，通鼎互联(+10.05%)/世嘉科技(+10.03%)/东方通信(+10.02%)/凤凰光学 (+10.01%)/崇达技术(+10.01%)/ ②创业板领涨，慧翰股份(+20.00%)/香农芯创(+20.00%)/四会富仕(+19.99%)/ ③科创板领涨，腾景科技(+20.00%)/海光信息 (+20.00%)/新相微(+20.00%)/ ④活跃子行业，SW通信网络设备及器件(+11.24%)/SW印制电路板(+11.10%)/ 国内新闻 ①艾邦ARAI眼镜资讯，广纳四维针对碳化硅工艺展示带来重磅展品/C45C碳 化 硅 全 彩 刻 蚀 波 导 / 实 现 高 色 彩 还 原 度 与 高 光 效 / 视 场 角 30°/ 亮 度 800nits/lm/厚度仅0.7mm/重量3.7g，满足消费级AR眼镜对轻量化与清晰 度的双重需求/ ③楚天龙，发布关于公司股东减持股份预披露公告/温州一马企业管理中心 （有限合伙）自身资金需求/将在2025年10月10日至2026年1月9日/减持数 量不超过1,383.4079万股（占公司总股本3.00%）/ ④剑桥科技，发布2025年半年度权益分派实施公 ...

Group 1 - Oracle's stock surged nearly 40%, leading to a significant rebound in the A-share AI sector, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.65% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 5.15% [1][3] - The AI industry experienced widespread gains, particularly in sectors such as electronic components, semiconductors, and software development, while precious metals and jewelry sectors weakened [1] - Oracle's impressive earnings report and cloud service growth expectations have been compared to Nvidia's previous market impact, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the AI sector [5][11] Group 2 - Oracle's RPO reached $455 billion, tripling in just three months, with expectations to exceed $500 billion soon, driven largely by a $300 billion contract with OpenAI [7][9] - The anticipated revenue from Oracle's cloud business is projected to grow significantly over the next four years, reaching $1.44 trillion by 2029 [7][9] - OpenAI's projected cumulative spending could reach $115 billion by 2030, with expected revenues of $130 billion this year, highlighting the financial dynamics within the AI sector [9][11] Group 3 - The AI infrastructure race is intensifying, with major companies like Meta committing substantial investments to support AI strategies, indicating a robust demand for data centers and related facilities [11][12] - Nvidia and other chip manufacturers are experiencing supply constraints due to the rapid growth in AI applications, leading to a seller's market for computing power [15][17] - Domestic companies in the AI supply chain are poised for growth, with significant investments in high-end products and technologies, reflecting a bullish outlook for the sector [17][18] Group 4 - AI ETFs have attracted significant capital inflows, with the Artificial Intelligence ETF (159819) and the Sci-Tech AI ETF (588730) showing strong performance compared to other indices [18][19] - The AI sector is currently experiencing a confluence of favorable policies, technological advancements, and increasing demand, suggesting continued upward momentum in the industry [19][20]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.43% at 26,086.32 points and a total trading volume of HKD 325.205 billion [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 0.73% to 9,260.25 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.24% to 5,888.77 points [1] Blue Chip Performance - Semiconductor manufacturer SMIC (00981) led blue-chip gains, rising 4.97% to HKD 63.35, contributing 21.23 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable blue-chip performers included China Hongqiao (01378) up 3.64% and New Oriental (09901) up 3.05%, while Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692) and CSPC Pharmaceutical (01093) saw declines of 8.76% and 7.5%, respectively [2] Sector Highlights Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector showed strong performance, with companies like Shanghai Fudan (01385) and Huahong Semiconductor (01347) rising 5.37% and 4.63%, respectively [4] - TSMC reported a 34% year-on-year increase in sales for August, indicating robust demand for advanced AI chips [4] AI and Technology - AI-related stocks saw significant gains, with SenseTime (00020) up 5.5% and ZTE Corporation (00763) up 7.5% [4] - Oracle's recent agreement to purchase USD 300 billion worth of computing power from OpenAI highlights the growing demand for AI infrastructure [5] Precious Metals and Commodities - The precious metals sector was active, with companies like China Molybdenum (03993) and Jiangxi Copper (00358) seeing gains of 4.79% and 3.28%, respectively [6] - Expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have contributed to a positive outlook for commodities [6] Notable Stock Movements - KZ International (02122) surged 160.68% after announcing a strategic partnership in the collectible card game market [7] - Yaojie Ankang-B (02617) reached a new high, rising 20.78% following the approval of a clinical trial for its core product [8] - Yunfeng Financial (00376) climbed 19.74% after receiving regulatory approval to offer virtual asset trading services [9]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.43% at 26,086.32 points and a total trading volume of 325.205 billion HKD [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.73% to 9,260.25 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.24% to 5,888.77 points [1] - Open-source securities noted that the expectation of easing from the Federal Reserve provides marginal support for Hong Kong stock valuations, highlighting the relative advantages of quality assets [1] Blue Chip Performance - Semiconductor manufacturer SMIC (00981) led blue-chip stocks, rising 4.97% to 63.35 HKD, contributing 21.23 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable gainers included China Hongqiao (01378) up 3.64% and New Oriental (09901) up 3.05% [2] - However, Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692) and CSPC Pharmaceutical (01093) saw declines of 8.76% and 7.5%, respectively, negatively impacting the index [2] Sector Highlights Technology Sector - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Tencent down 0.63% and Alibaba fluctuating before closing up 0.35% [3] - The AI infrastructure sector gained attention following Oracle's significant RPO increase, indicating strong demand for AI computing power [4] Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks performed well, with Fudan (01385) up 5.37% and Huahong Semiconductor (01347) up 4.63% [4] - TSMC reported a 34% year-on-year increase in sales for August, reflecting robust demand for advanced AI chips [4] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector faced significant declines, with major stocks like Tigermed (03347) and Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692) dropping sharply due to potential U.S. restrictions on Chinese drugs [3] - Analysts suggest that the market's reaction may be short-lived, with long-term growth potential remaining in the sector [3] Metals Sector - The metals sector saw increased activity, with companies like Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) and China Hongqiao (01378) posting gains amid expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [6] - Analysts predict continued high demand for metals, supported by seasonal trends and easing liquidity conditions [6] Notable Stock Movements - KZL International (02122) surged 160.68% after announcing a strategic partnership in the collectible card game market [7] - Drug developer Yaojie Ankang-B (02617) rose 20.78% following the approval of a clinical trial for its core product [8] - Yunfeng Financial (00376) climbed 19.74% after receiving regulatory approval to offer virtual asset trading services [9]

台积电(2330.TW)盘中一度涨至1260元新台币，创历史新高，最终收涨1.22%，报1240元新台币，市值 达32.16万亿新台币。台积电8月营收3357.72亿元，月增3.9%、年增33.8%，改写单月次高、同期新高； 前8月营收2.43万亿新台币，年增37.1%。 来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇9月11日｜台湾加权指数盘中一度涨1.38%报25541.44点，再创历史新高；尾盘走低，涨幅收窄， 最终收涨0.09%报25215.71点，创收盘历史新高。台湾加权指数年内累涨9.47%。 ...