报告聚焦美国缺电问题，指出数据中心建设是重塑美国电力格局的核心因素，剖析了缺电成因、区域特征及应对措施，并梳理了相关投资机会与风险，核心 结论为美国缺电的结构性问题已转化为燃气轮机、电力设备、储能等领域的长期投资机会。 美国缺电的核心原因是数据中心资本开支预期持续增强，叠加三重错配：资本开支预期与实际需求错配、实际需求与基建能力错配，且数据中心实际规划量 （245GW）远高于机构负荷增长预测。Grid Strategies 将 2025-2030 年美国夏季峰值负荷增长预测上调至 166GW，其中 55% 由数据中心驱动。美国电源结 构以气电为主，但 2026-2030 年仅气电有新增装机，煤电迎退役潮，叠加电网老旧、输电线路建设滞后，进一步加剧电力缺口。测算显示，若不考虑调节性 电源，不同数据中心建设节奏下 2030 年美国负荷缺口达 2-157GW，储能、SOFC 等调节性电源则可完全弥补缺口。 美国电力负荷增长呈现显著区域特征，主要集中在 PJM、ERCOT 两大数据中心建设密集区，2025-2030 年两者峰值负荷分别增长 29.7GW、53.2GW。PJM 因数据中心需求激增，夏季峰值负荷 2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - The structural issue of electricity shortage in the U.S. is transforming into a long-term, certain investment opportunity, with gas turbines, power equipment, and energy storage being the key beneficiaries [1] Group 1: Gas Turbines - The market for gas turbines is experiencing high demand, with bottlenecks in production among leading overseas companies, suggesting a continued market share increase for Chinese firms like Dongfang Electric and Shanghai Electric [1] Group 2: Power Equipment - There is a growing demand for U.S. power grid infrastructure, particularly in the transformer segment, which is facing supply bottlenecks. Companies such as Jinpan Technology, Siyuan Electric, and Igor are recommended for investment. Additionally, AI power architecture upgrades are expected to enhance power efficiency, with companies like Shenghong Co., Sifang Co., and Megmeet being highlighted [1] Group 3: Energy Storage - Energy storage solutions are expected to effectively enhance the reliability of the power system in the short term, with companies like Sungrow Power and Canadian Solar being recommended for attention [1] Group 4: Causes of Electricity Shortage - The core reason for the electricity shortage in the U.S. is the continuous increase in capital expenditure for data centers. Predictions for peak load growth from 2025 to 2030 have been significantly revised upward, indicating a mismatch between expected and actual demand [2] Group 5: Load Growth Characteristics - The growth in peak load is concentrated in areas with dense data center construction, particularly in ERCOT and PJM regions. The demand surge in PJM is expected to lead to a significant increase in capacity prices due to reduced reserve margins [4] Group 6: ERCOT Insights - ERCOT is becoming a primary site for new data centers due to its abundant natural gas resources and lower electricity prices. The region is accelerating the construction of energy storage and gas power projects to enhance system reliability [5]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview 1. DiKe Co., Ltd. (帝科股份) - **Industry Position**: DiKe Co., Ltd. is recognized for its strong R&D capabilities, particularly in high-temperature paste materials for TOPCon technology, maintaining a leading position in the market [1] - **Market Share**: The company has improved its market share in low-temperature paste from third to first place, being the first to introduce the silver-coated solution [1] - **High Copper Paste**: The adoption of high copper paste is expected to increase, with significant advantages in high-temperature processes. The company and its partner, SOT, have a leading share in domestic battery cell production using high copper paste solutions [1] - **Profit Projections**: Estimated penetration rates for high copper paste are projected to be 8% in 2026 and 50% in 2027. The company anticipates a profit of 1 billion yuan in 2025, with a potential profit of 1 to 1.5 billion yuan from the paste segment in 2027 [1] - **Overseas Expansion**: The company has established partnerships in South Korea and Taiwan, achieving nearly 100% market share in North America for high/low-temperature paste. Future prospects in North America and space photovoltaic business are seen as certain and scarce [1] 2. Yongzhen Co., Ltd. (永臻股份) - **Market Leadership**: Yongzhen is a leading company in the frame sector, with significant overseas production capacity, including 180,000 tons in Vietnam and 40,000 tons in the U.S. [2] - **Profitability**: The Vietnam facility primarily supplies clients in India and the U.S., with unit profits exceeding 3,000 yuan per ton. The company is considering small capacity acquisitions and technological upgrades in Vietnam [2] - **U.S. Operations**: The company holds a 24.9% stake in AF SOLARTECH, a U.S. frame enterprise, which is expected to contribute approximately 300 million yuan annually due to high processing fees resulting from tariffs on aluminum products [2] - **Profit Outlook**: Current overseas capacity is projected to support stable profits of 500-600 million yuan. The company is expected to significantly reduce losses domestically, with potential total profits of 1 to 1.5 billion yuan in North America [2] 3. Juhe Materials (聚和材料) - **Market Trends**: Juhe Materials is expected to benefit significantly from the widespread adoption of high copper paste. The company’s semiconductor material assets are considered scarce and crucial for addressing domestic supply chain issues [2] 4. Yamaton (亚玛顿) - **Supplier Role**: Yamaton is currently a primary supplier for T clients, with a new base in the Middle East expected to yield significant returns in the future [2] Industry Insights 1. Overseas Energy Storage - **Market Demand**: The demand for energy storage solutions is long-term and urgent, with a focus on companies like Airo Energy, Sunshine Power, and others [3] 2. Electrical Equipment - **Market Focus**: The electrical systems in Europe and the U.S. are in a supercycle, with recommendations to focus on overseas markets, highlighting companies such as Siyuan Electric and others [3] 3. AI Power - **Investment Timing**: 2026 is anticipated to be a year of realization for AI power investments, with recommendations for companies like GemiTech and others [3]

Core Viewpoint - The core reason for the electricity shortage in the U.S. is the continuous increase in capital expenditure expectations for data centers, leading to a significant upward revision of peak load growth forecasts for summer from 64GW in 2024 to 166GW in 2025 by GridStrategies [2] Group 1: Electricity Shortage Causes - The mismatch between capital expenditure expectations for data centers and actual demand, as well as the mismatch between actual demand and infrastructure capacity, creates uncertainty in the actual deployment pace of data centers [2] - The projected capacity of data center reserve projects in the U.S. has reached 245GW as of mid-October 2025, which will lead to increased peak load as data centers continue to operate [3] Group 2: Future Power Supply and Load Gap - The future new power installations in the U.S. will primarily be gas-fired, with the EIA estimating an addition of 7GW of gas power installations in 2026-2030 under current project plans, while other stable power sources will see no new additions [3] - Different scenarios for the pace of data center construction indicate varying load gaps by 2030, ranging from 2GW to 157GW, depending on whether regulatory power sources are considered [4] Group 3: Regional Load Growth Characteristics - The growth in peak load will be concentrated in areas with dense data center construction, particularly in ERCOT and PJM regions, driven by data center demand [5] - In PJM, the summer peak load is expected to rise from 156GW in 2026 to 222GW in 2036, with a significant drop in power reserve margins leading to a surge in capacity prices [6] - ERCOT's summer peak load is projected to grow from 87GW in 2025 to 138GW in 2030, with a focus on enhancing power system reliability through the construction of storage and gas-fired power sources [7] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - In the context of high market demand for gas turbines, there are bottlenecks in production capacity among leading overseas gas turbine companies, suggesting a favorable outlook for Chinese companies like Dongfang Electric and Shanghai Electric [8] - The increasing demand for U.S. power grid infrastructure presents opportunities in the transformer segment, with companies like Jinpan Technology and Siyi Electric being highlighted [8] - The short-term effectiveness of storage solutions in enhancing power system reliability points to investment potential in companies like Sungrow Power and Canadian Solar [8]

Core Viewpoint - Shenghong Co., Ltd. (300693) has clarified that it is not currently involved in space photovoltaic energy storage technology and has no plans for solid-state transformer products, which may influence investor sentiment in the short term [1]. Group 1: Company Response - The company has stated that its current business focus does not include the frontier field of space photovoltaic energy storage technology [1]. - Shenghong Co. has confirmed that it does not have any solid-state transformer products or development plans, indicating that such technology is not part of its existing product line [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - As of February 10, 2026, Shenghong's stock price closed at 38.18 yuan, reflecting a 2.92% decline over the past five days, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.49%, and the electric equipment sector, which saw a decrease of 0.72% [2]. - On the same day, there was a net outflow of 6.4756 million yuan from major investors, with a turnover rate of 1.57%, indicating moderate market activity [2]. - The technical analysis shows that the stock price is near the lower band of the 20-day Bollinger Bands (support level at 36.41 yuan), necessitating attention to whether it can stabilize in the short term [2]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - According to a report by Everbright Securities on February 8, 2026, the demand for AIDC power sources is driven by domestic computing power construction, with Shenghong being highlighted as a focus due to its involvement in HVDC and SST technologies [3]. - Guohai Securities also noted on the same day that the domestic energy storage market remains robust, with a procurement volume of 36.3 GWh in January 2026, suggesting potential for Shenghong's business expansion in the energy storage sector [3]. - Analysts are focusing on the company's long-term growth potential, although these insights are based on industry trends rather than recent company announcements [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shenghong Co., Ltd. (300693.SZ), has not made any investments or developments in space photovoltaic energy storage technology as of February 10 [2] Company Summary - Shenghong Co., Ltd. responded to an inquiry on an investor interaction platform regarding its involvement in space photovoltaic energy storage technology, confirming that there are currently no related initiatives [2]

Group 1 - The company, Shenghong Co., Ltd. (300693.SZ), has stated that it currently does not have any products related to solid-state transformers [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Shenghong Co., Ltd. (300693.SZ) has indicated that its HVDC products are still in the early stages and have not yet generated revenue [1]

Group 1 - The company does not currently have any products related to solid-state transformers [1] - The company has not developed the capability to produce solid-state transformers or laid out relevant business plans [1]

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-02-10 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 海外周报 20260208：1 月美国非农和 CPI 前瞻：关注上行风险——海外 宏观与交易复盘 核心观点：本周（2 月 2-8 日）在美股 AI 软件泡沫担忧引发的科技股大 跌、及随后的动量抛售等交易因素造成的流动性冲击下，海外权益、大宗 商品和比特币等资产经历剧烈波动。我们认为，近期资本市场的流动性冲 击更多来自交易层面，而海外宏观基本面和广义流动性环境并未有显著 变化，这意味着部分资产存在被流动性冲击"错杀"的可能。关注下周公 布的 1 月美国非农就业和 CPI 数据，我们预期二者均存在上行风险，令 本周略有升温的美联储降息预期再度面临回调。 宏观量化经济指数周报 20260208：预计 2026 年 1 月贷款温和增长、社 融小幅同比多增 晨会编辑 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 东吴证券研究所 1 / 37 [Table_Tag] 节前经济供需两端基本符合季节性特征 ...