Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (02057) announced a share repurchase plan, indicating confidence in its stock value and future prospects [1] Summary by Categories Company Actions - The company plans to repurchase 423,100 shares at a total cost of $7.8923 million [1] - The repurchase price is set between $18.47 and $18.99 per share [1] Financial Implications - The total expenditure for the share buyback reflects a strategic move to enhance shareholder value [1]

国家邮政局的监测数据显示，截至10月11日，今年我国快递业务量已突破1500亿件。 这一规模有多大？1500亿件快件，相当于2022年全球快递包裹业务量的近八成。 达成目标有多快？今年突破1500亿件比去年提前了37天，在高基数之上，我国快递业务量持续实现高增 长，成为全球快递包裹市场的"动力源"。 小小快递，连接千城百业、联通线上线下。透过小包裹"加速跑"的身影，可以一探中国经济涌动的活 力。 流动的包裹，彰显着国内大市场的发展潜力。 近日，新疆巴音郭楞蒙古自治州尉犁县墩阔坦乡琼库勒村村民库尔班·麦合木提收到一箱网购的米面粮 油套装。 在广袤新疆，这一幕收货场景已成为日常。通过"集运配送"模式，新疆包邮落地成真。目前，京东全平 台80%以上商品对新疆实现包邮，拉动今年来自新疆的订单量同比增长超一倍。 "包邮区"西进，是邮政快递业通过服务构建全国统一大市场、扩大农村市场消费的生动缩影。在新疆喀 什，新型县、乡、村3级物流体系不断健全，更多家电产品被送往各个乡镇；在西藏林芝，集运转运、 邮快合作等模式应用广泛，农牧区百姓网购成本显著降低……今年上半年，我国中西部地区快递业务收 入和业务量同比分别增长13.6%和 ...

智通财经APP讯，中通快递-W(02057)发布公告，于2025年10月10日该公司斥资789.23万美元回购 42.31 万股，回购价格为每股18.47-18.99美元。 ...

格隆汇10月13日丨中通快递-W(02057.HK)发布公告，2025年10月10日耗资789.23万美元回购42.31万 股，每股回购价18.47-18.99美元。 ...

| 1). | 購回股份但沒有註銷 | 395,651 | % | USD | 19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 於美國時間2025年9月24日購回395,651股美國存託股份(代表395,651股 | | | | | | | A類普通股) | | | | | | | 變動日期 2025年9月24日 | | | | | | 2). | 購回股份但沒有註銷 | 395,650 | % | USD | 19.21 | | | 於美國時間2025年9月25日購回395,650股美國存託股份(代表395,650股 | | | | | | | A類普通股) | | | | | | | 變動日期 2025年9月25日 | | | | | | 3). | 購回股份但沒有註銷 | 394,479 | % | USD | 19.49 | | | 於美國時間2025年9月26日購回394,479股美國存託股份(代表394,479股 | | | | | | | A類普通股) | | | | | | | 變動日期 2025年9月26日 | | | | | | 4). | 購 ...

Core Insights - The express delivery business in China has surpassed 150 billion packages as of October 11, 2023, marking a significant growth trend in the sector [1][2] - This volume represents nearly 80% of the global express package business in 2022, indicating China's dominant position in the market [2] - The achievement of this milestone occurred 37 days earlier than the previous year, showcasing the rapid growth despite a high base [2] Industry Growth and Market Potential - The express delivery sector reflects the development potential of the domestic market, with significant increases in order volumes from regions like Xinjiang, where orders have more than doubled [3] - The "free shipping zone" initiative is expanding, enhancing service coverage and boosting consumption in rural areas, contributing to a 13.6% increase in revenue and a 25.5% increase in business volume in central and western regions [3] Technological Advancements - The integration of new technologies such as drones and autonomous vehicles is accelerating operational efficiency, with over 1,000 autonomous vehicles deployed across more than 250 service points [4] - The use of 5G and artificial intelligence in various logistics processes is supporting the continuous rise in business volume [4] Policy Support and Market Transformation - Government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption are driving the growth of the express delivery sector, with millions of "national subsidy orders" being processed [5] - The postal and express delivery industry is evolving from traditional services to more personalized and integrated solutions, enhancing its role in the national economic cycle [5] - The industry is committed to fostering new productive forces through technological innovation, contributing to high-quality economic development and the establishment of a unified national market [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Views - The shipping and shipbuilding industry is poised for historical opportunities due to China's countermeasures against the U.S. shipping fees, which may lead to non-linear price increases in the short term and a reduction in available vessels in the medium term [19][20] - The report highlights the potential for a surge in shipbuilding orders if U.S. investments in Chinese shipbuilding are exempted from tariffs, and the implications of U.S.-China negotiations on the industry [19][20] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Market Performance - The transportation index increased by 1.09%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.60 percentage points, with the road freight sector showing the highest increase of 3.04% [4][5] - Shipping data indicates that the coastal dry bulk freight index in China remained stable, while the Shanghai export container freight index rose by 4.12% [4][5] 2. Sub-industry Weekly Insights - The shipping and shipbuilding sector is expected to benefit from China's recent regulatory changes, which impose special port fees on U.S. vessels, potentially leading to increased operational costs for U.S. shipping companies [20][21] - The report identifies key companies to watch, including China Shipping and China State Shipbuilding, as they may benefit from these developments [19] 3. High Dividend Stocks in Transportation - The report lists high dividend stocks in the transportation sector, including China Shipping (603167.SH) with a projected dividend yield of 10.92% and Daqin Railway (601006.SH) with a yield of 3.75% [17] - The report emphasizes the importance of dividend yields as a factor for investment decisions in the transportation sector [17] 4. ETF Size Changes - The report provides data on the changes in the size of various ETFs related to the transportation sector, indicating a general trend of growth in assets under management [13][14] 5. Potential Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the shipping sector, particularly oil tankers and dry bulk carriers, may present significant investment opportunities due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes [19][20] - Companies such as China Shipping and China State Shipbuilding are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of these market dynamics [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the transportation industry, highlighting potential rebound opportunities in various sectors [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of shipping rates post-holiday, the impact of US-China tariff disputes on shipping prices, and the potential for price recovery in the aviation sector due to increased travel demand [1][14]. - It identifies key investment opportunities in infrastructure and logistics, particularly in companies with attractive dividend yields and stable earnings [16][18]. Shipping - Post-holiday shipping rates have shown recovery, with the SCFI for the US East route increasing by 2.8% to $2452/FEU, and the European route rising by 10% to $1068/TEU [12]. - The report notes that the US-China tariff disputes are causing short-term fluctuations in shipping rates, particularly affecting oil tankers [14]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy due to expected benefits from these market dynamics [14]. Infrastructure - The report indicates that highway stocks have fallen to a dividend yield of over 5%, suggesting potential for a rebound if market sentiment shifts [16]. - Weekly data shows a 27.6% decrease in truck traffic, while rail freight increased by 0.95% [15][16]. - Key recommended stocks include China Merchants Highway, Anhui Expressway, and Qingdao Port [16]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing a stable growth rate, with a 12.3% year-on-year increase in business volume in August 2025 [17]. - The report highlights the "anti-involution" policy that is expected to ease price competition and improve valuations in the sector [18]. - Recommended stocks include ZTO Express, YTO Express, and SF Express, with a focus on price performance during the peak season [18]. Aviation - The aviation sector is seeing a recovery in passenger numbers, with a 3.9% year-on-year increase during the holiday period [19]. - The report suggests that the low base effect in Q4 could lead to price recovery opportunities for airlines [19]. - Recommended airlines include Air China, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [19]. Logistics - The logistics sector is showing signs of improvement, with a slight increase in cross-border transport volumes and stable short-haul freight rates [21]. - The report notes that the logistics market is benefiting from increased demand and improved operational efficiencies [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in profits for the express delivery sector driven by anti-competition policies, with an expected increase in prices leading to improved profitability for companies like Shentong Express and YTO Express [5][6]. - The shipping sector is experiencing strong demand, particularly for oil tankers, with historical high freight rates observed in August and September 2025. The report anticipates continued demand growth due to OPEC+ production increases and a release of pent-up inventory demand [5]. - The shipbuilding industry is in a phase of profit release as high-priced orders are being delivered, with a strong demand for replacing old vessels. The report notes that the implementation of the 301 policy is expected to stimulate order volumes and ship prices [5]. - The airline sector is projected to see significant improvements in operational performance due to increased capacity and a recovery in international travel, with major airlines like China Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines expected to benefit [5][6]. - The report also indicates that the highway and railway sectors are likely to maintain growth in traffic volumes, with improvements in railway freight performance anticipated due to the retraction of previous freight rate reductions [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping - Oil tanker freight rates reached historical highs in August and September 2025, with a projected 14% decline in VLCC market rates for Q3, while Cape-sized bulk carriers are expected to see a 19% increase in rates [5]. - The report recommends companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and China Merchants Heavy Industry, highlighting the strong demand and supply constraints in the sector [5]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding industry is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with ongoing demand for replacing old vessels. The report suggests that the implementation of the 301 policy will positively impact order volumes and ship prices [5]. - Recommended companies include China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation and China State Shipbuilding Corporation, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [5]. Airlines - The airline sector is entering a peak travel season with increased capacity and improved passenger flow. The report anticipates significant operational improvements for major airlines due to favorable external factors such as lower oil prices [5][6]. - Companies like China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key beneficiaries of this trend [5]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a recovery in profits due to rising prices and reduced competition. The report notes a 12.3% year-on-year growth in express delivery volume in August 2025 [5]. - Recommended companies include Shentong Express and YTO Express, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing price increases [5]. Highway and Railway - The report forecasts growth in highway traffic and railway passenger and freight volumes, with a notable increase in railway freight performance expected in Q3 2025 [5]. - Recommended companies include Zhejiang Huhangyong and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, which are expected to perform well in the current environment [5].

Summary of ZTO Express Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ZTO Express (Ticker: ZTO US / 2057 HK) - **Industry**: Logistics and Express Delivery in China - **Market Position**: Largest express parcel provider in China with approximately 20% market share as of 2Q25 [44][49] Key Points and Arguments 1. Improved Financial Outlook - **Price Target Increase**: Price targets raised to US$24 for ZTO US ADR and HK$187 for ZTO H-share, reflecting a 27% and 29% upside potential respectively from current levels [1][57] - **Management Confidence**: A marked shift in management's tone indicates greater confidence in the sustainability of price hikes due to the anti-involution campaign and improved regulatory enforcement [1][57] 2. Anti-Involution Campaign Impact - **Regulatory Changes**: The anti-involution campaign has reshaped industry dynamics, moving the sector from volume-driven competition to margin-focused discipline [3][39] - **Price Stability**: Local authorities are actively stabilizing prices and preventing undercutting, which has led to improved profitability across the network [3][39][58] 3. Financial Performance Metrics - **Profitability Gains**: The Guangdong price hike resulted in an increase of approximately RMB 0.3 per parcel at the front-end, translating to RMB 0.025-0.03 at the group level [5][39] - **Volume Growth Expectations**: Management expects parcel volume growth of 14-18% year-over-year for FY25, targeting 38.8-40.1 billion parcels [6][59] 4. Short-Term Challenges - **Net Profit Projections**: Expected non-GAAP net profit for 3Q25 is RMB 2.17 billion, down approximately 9% year-over-year, and for FY25, projected at RMB 8.8 billion, down 13% year-over-year [7][59] - **Volume Headwinds**: The moderation in volume growth is attributed to price increases affecting low-price parcels, but the network remains robust with ongoing investments in automation and fleet expansion [6][59] 5. Competitive Landscape - **Shift in Competition**: The competitive landscape is evolving from aggressive volume growth to maintaining pricing power and outlet profitability [11][12] - **ASP Resilience**: Recent data from Tongda peers indicates a focus on average selling price (ASP) stability, with some companies sacrificing market share for stronger margins [13][14][58] 6. Long-Term Strategy - **Sustainable Growth**: Outlets are collaborating more closely with headquarters on cost reduction and quality improvement, indicating a shift towards sustainable growth practices [10][39] - **Market Adaptation**: ZTO is maintaining flexibility to adapt to shifting competitive dynamics while focusing on direct customer business growth through differentiated pricing and service quality [6][59] Additional Important Insights - **Regulatory Support**: The broad adoption of anti-involution measures across major provinces signals a persistent and expanding regulatory support for price stability [8][39] - **Management's Optimism**: The tone of management has shifted from cautious to optimistic, reflecting greater clarity about the industry's direction and ZTO's ability to navigate the new competitive landscape [12][58] Conclusion ZTO Express is positioned for potential growth driven by improved pricing discipline and regulatory support, despite facing short-term volume challenges. The company's strategic focus on profitability and sustainable practices is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the logistics market.