Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core Views - Amid complex global macro - economic conditions and increased bond market volatility, traditional bond long - only strategies face challenges, and treasury bond futures have become important for risk management and asset allocation in bond investment portfolios [13]. - The report details the current situation of public funds' participation in treasury bond futures, analyzes the design logic of negative - duration funds, and explores using treasury bond futures to hedge interest - rate risks for all - weather bond asset allocation [13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Public Funds' Current Participation in Treasury Bond Futures - **Increasing Position Size with 1% Market Share**: By the end of Q3 2025, 141 public funds held treasury bond futures, holding a total of 13,068 contracts, including 3,992 long contracts (0.6% of the market) and 9,076 short contracts (1.4% of the market). Public funds are required to disclose treasury bond futures trading information in regular reports [17]. - **Short - Dominant Position Structure**: At the end of Q3 2025, 79 public funds held net short positions in treasury bond futures, with a short - contract market value of about 11 billion yuan, compared to 60 funds with net long positions and a long - contract market value of about 5.6 billion yuan, indicating a preference for short positions to hedge interest - rate risks [18]. - **Strategy and Contract Selection: Focus on Single - Variety and Single - Maturity**: In Q3 2025, 63.8% of funds held single - maturity treasury bond futures contracts (39 long - position and 51 short - position funds), while 36.2% held multi - variety or multi - maturity contracts [24]. - **Concentration on Active Contracts**: In Q3 2025, over 90% of public funds' positions were in the T2512, TS2512, and TL2512 active contracts, and the number of short positions in the TL2512 and T2512 contracts was significantly higher than long positions [27]. - **Mid - and Long - Term Pure - Bond Funds as the Main Allocators**: By the end of Q3 2025, mid - and long - term pure - bond funds were the main participants in treasury bond futures, with 47 funds holding positions, followed by hybrid bond - type secondary funds with 29 funds. The scale of mid - and long - term pure - bond funds' positions was about 8.78 billion yuan [28][33]. - **Leading Layout by Top - Tier Institutions**: By the end of Q3 2025, top - tier fund companies led in treasury bond futures layout. Harvest Fund and E Fund each had 14 related products, followed by China Merchants Fund with 10 products [37]. - **Significant Differences in Allocation Intensity Among Products**: The allocation intensity of public funds to treasury bond futures varies. For example, E Fund Credit Bond has a higher short - position allocation ratio than the market average, and Huataibaoxing Kaiyuan 3 - Month has a contract - market - value - to - fund - scale ratio of 27.1%, much higher than the industry average [40]. Negative - Duration Investment Strategy Based on Treasury Bond Futures Shorts - **Existing Negative - Duration Funds**: There are few negative - duration funds in the market, and the degree of negative duration is limited. This may be due to data errors in calculations and regulatory requirements for hedging purposes [46]. - **Constructing a Negative - Duration Portfolio**: Under regulatory constraints, to maximize negative duration, the following steps can be taken: invest only in cash bonds and treasury bond futures, set the short - position market - value ratio of treasury bond futures at a maximum of 30%, set the portfolio leverage at a maximum of 140%, short 30 - year treasury bond futures, and choose short - term bonds with a duration close to 0. The longest negative duration of a fund can reach - 7.1 years [51][55].

公募基金行业正处深度转型期，高质量发展已成为行业共识。坚守初心本源，创造投资价值。张东表 示，博时基金将始终秉持"做投资价值发现者"的初心，坚持将投资者利益置于首位，以客户价值创造为 根基，以长期主义为行动准则。 1月9日下午，博时基金携手证券时报主办的2026博时基金投资策略会圆满落幕。 本次会议以"丙午奋蹄投资路，红启东方十五五"为主题，汇聚基金、券商、银行、保险、信托等各类金 融机构代表及新闻媒体等200余人，共话资本市场新机遇。 会上，多位国内资深券商首席分析师及博时基金知名基金经理齐聚一堂，围绕2026年全球和国内宏观经 济走势、权益市场布局、债券投资策略展开深度展望，同时聚焦科创行业投资机会、大类资产配 置、"固收+"产品发展等行业热点议题展开专业剖析，为投资者清晰梳理丙午马年的投资主线，前瞻未 来市场的机遇与挑战。本次策略会上，博时基金还发布了《博时基金2026年宏观策略报告》，为市场提 供专业的投资参考与决策支持。 变局蕴新机，实干开新篇 步入2026年，面对更加复杂的全球环境，博时基金党委书记、董事长张东在致辞中表示，中国经济的相 对稳定与持续开放，将进一步提升人民币资产在全球配置中的吸引力 ...

1月12日，上海黄金交易所公告称，经易方达基金管理有限公司申请，自2026年1月19日起，投资者办理易方达黄金交易型开放式证券投资基金 （基金代码159934，以下简称"易方达黄金ETF"）的黄金现货合约申购赎回业务时，申购赎回对价中的黄金现货合约将不再包括交易所的Au99.95 合约，仅为交易所的Au99.99合约。 公告内容显示，易方达黄金ETF最小申购、赎回单位由30万份调整为10万份，对应黄金现货合约最小申购、赎回重量由3000克调整为1000克。 此外，公告指出，为确保申购赎回对价调整的顺利进行、保障基金平稳运作，易方达黄金ETF的黄金现货合约申购赎回将于2026年1月16日暂停一 日，于2026年1月19日恢复。 针对此次调整，有业内人士向智通财经记者分析道，此次调整将实物申赎对价的黄金现货合约品种统一为Au99.99合约，主要是由于Au99.99合约 的流动性显著优于Au99.95合约，且成色纯度标准更高。使用流动性相对不足的合约可能影响申赎效率，并对所有投资者在定价与执行层面造成潜 在不公，因此决定将Au99.95合约从申赎篮子中剔除，以增强交易的公平性与透明度。 与此同时，上述人士进一步称， ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 investment strategy conference hosted by Bosera Fund emphasized the importance of macroeconomic trends and investment opportunities in various sectors, including technology and fixed income, amidst a complex global environment [3][4][6]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - Bosera Fund's chairman highlighted that China's economic stability and continued openness will enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets globally [4]. - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on technology innovation, green transformation, and rural revitalization, injecting continuous industrial momentum into the capital market [4]. - The coordination of fiscal and monetary policies is expected to be more flexible and precise, aiming for a dynamic balance between growth stabilization, transformation promotion, and risk prevention [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The equity market presents structural opportunities, particularly in sectors like technology independence, energy transition, and consumer recovery, where companies with real competitiveness will continue to be revalued [7]. - The bond market remains valuable for allocation, with the role of interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds acting as stabilizers in a low-interest-rate environment [7]. - Asset allocation should focus on balance and flexibility, transitioning from "single Beta" to "multiple Alpha," allowing investors to seek low-correlation combinations across various asset classes [7]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The conference featured insights from industry experts on global macroeconomic trends, liquidity, and the impact of AI on capital markets [8]. - Bosera Fund's Chief Investment Officer discussed the importance of understanding industry trends for successful technology investments, identifying two key valuation phases in the growth of tech companies [8][10]. - Key investment opportunities in 2026 are expected to focus on artificial intelligence, particularly in areas like overseas computing power, domestic computing power, and AI large models [10]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Recommendations - Bosera Fund's senior investment director emphasized the potential for multi-asset allocation, predicting that "fixed income plus" strategies may perform better in 2026 [11]. - The report anticipates a slight increase in fiscal policy expansion and a stable low-interest-rate environment, with a focus on liquidity and the impact of various economic factors on market performance [13]. - The report also noted that while the A-share market may experience more rotation, the Hong Kong stock market remains attractive due to its relative valuation [14].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has shown a strong upward trend at the beginning of the year, with gold and silver prices reaching new highs, driven by various factors including geopolitical risks and central bank purchases [1][3][7]. Price Performance - As of January 12, spot gold reached a high of $4600.79 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 6%. Silver also performed well, hitting a peak of $84.596 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 17% [1][2]. - The current prices for gold and silver are $4589.320 and $83.961 respectively, with gold showing a daily increase of 1.78% and silver 5.26% [2]. ETF Inflows - Significant inflows into gold ETFs have been observed, with major funds like the China Universal Gold ETF and E Fund Gold ETF seeing increases of over 13,000 shares each in the past week [3]. - The recent surge in gold prices has led to a high premium in the market, prompting fund companies to issue risk warnings and adjust their redemption policies [4][8]. Factors Driving Prices - The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to three main factors: continued purchases by central banks, significant inflows from institutional investors into gold ETFs, and retail demand for physical gold and silver [6]. - Geopolitical risks and concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability are also contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [7]. Market Adjustments - Several major banks have issued warnings regarding the risks associated with gold investments, including adjustments to trading rules and increased investment thresholds [10]. - The China Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China have raised the minimum investment amounts for gold accumulation products, reflecting a tightening of investment conditions [10]. Future Outlook - Institutions remain optimistic about the long-term upward potential of precious metals, although they caution that the pace and extent of price increases will depend on factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical developments [11]. - Analysts suggest that gold will continue to play a significant role in investment strategies, particularly as a hedge against economic uncertainties [11].

Group 1 - The A-share commercial aerospace sector experienced a significant surge on January 12, with over 40 stocks hitting the daily limit, including Xingtu Measurement and Control, Tianyin Electromechanical, and Guangha Communication, with a cumulative increase of 33.38% in the Wenhua Commercial Aerospace Theme Index since 2026 [1] - Multiple commercial aerospace ETFs also reached their daily limit, with one ETF under Yongying Fund surpassing 10 billion RMB in scale [3] - The satellite industry chain has shown strong performance since the end of 2025, with one investor reporting a cumulative return of approximately 31.60% from two ETFs focused on satellite communication and industry indices [5] Group 2 - Several listed companies issued urgent announcements on January 12 regarding their involvement in the commercial aerospace sector, with companies like Ligong Navigation and Zhongke Xingtou clarifying that their business in this area is still in the early stages or not directly related to commercial aerospace [7][8] - Companies such as Zhonghe Design and Guokai Military Industry reported minimal revenue contributions from commercial aerospace projects, with Zhonghe Design's related income accounting for only 0.39% of total revenue [9][11] - Other companies like Aihua Technology and North Navigation emphasized that they do not engage in commercial aerospace activities, warning of potential risks associated with their stock price surges [10][14]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has shown a strong upward trend at the beginning of the year, with gold and silver prices reaching new highs, driven by various factors including geopolitical risks and central bank policies [1][5][8]. Price Performance - As of January 12, spot gold reached a high of $4600.79 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 6%. Spot silver also hit a peak of $84.596 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 17% [1][2]. - Current prices include London gold at $4589.320 (up 1.78% YTD) and London silver at $83.961 (up 17.30% YTD) [2]. ETF Activity - Multiple funds have seen significant inflows into gold ETFs, with the largest increases in the China Universal Gold ETF and E Fund Gold ETF, both exceeding 13,000 shares in recent weeks [5][6]. - The E Fund Gold ETF announced a temporary suspension of subscriptions from January 16 to January 19 to adjust its pricing mechanism for gold contracts [3][10]. Market Drivers - The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to several factors: 1. Ongoing purchases by central banks, particularly in emerging markets, which continue to support gold prices [7][8]. 2. Institutional investment inflows into gold ETFs and increased net long positions by hedge funds [7]. 3. Retail demand for physical gold and silver, driven by high-net-worth individuals and industries like photovoltaics [7][8]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Heightened geopolitical risks and concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability are contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [8][12]. - The market is also influenced by expectations of U.S. monetary policy, with potential easing measures impacting gold prices [11][12]. Investment Risks - High premiums in gold ETFs and potential valuation corrections pose risks for investors, particularly if market sentiment shifts or if significant arbitrage activities occur [6][10]. - Recent adjustments in investment thresholds and risk assessments by major banks indicate a cautious approach to gold investments [10][11].

截至1月12日9点13分，黄金价格再续涨势，现货黄金首次站上4600美元大关，日内涨超2%，新年首月累计上涨280美元。 黄金价格呈现持续上涨态势，同时交易风险陡增。中国银行、工商银行两家国有大行，接连发布相关黄金交易提示或规则调整，提醒投资者注意风险。 | 腾讯理财通 | | | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 直金专区 | | | | | 避险抗通胀,长期配黄金 | | | | | 金价到达提醒价位通知你 | | | 订阅提醒 | | 国内现货 国际现货 | | 黄金实物 | | | 品牌 银行 | 回收 | | | | 品牌 | | 价格(元/克) 日涨跌幅 | | | 周大福 | | 1426 | +1.42% | | 老凤祥 | | 1428 | +2.07% | | 周六福 | | 1411 | +1.44% | | 周生生 | | 1429 | +1.35% | | 六福珠宝 | | 1424 | +1.42% | | 我支撑 | | 1424 | +1.42% | | 老庙 | | 1429 | +1.56% | 截图时间：2026年1月12日 银行积存金业务因 ...

（记者 王晓波） 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——年产量是传统大田120倍以上，1个人管理1栋楼！实探中国"植物工厂"：水 稻生产期从120天减到60天，没有虫害不用打农药 每经AI快讯，江波龙发布公告称，2026年1月8日，江波龙接受博时基金等投资者调研，公司投资者关 系经理黄琦、投资者关系资深主管苏阳春参与接待，并回答了投资者提出的问题。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Since 2025, the global macro - economic environment has been complex and volatile. The bond market has entered a new cycle of increased volatility. Relying solely on traditional bond long - only strategies faces challenges, and treasury bond futures have become important tools for risk management and asset allocation. The report details the current situation of public funds' participation in treasury bond futures and explores the design logic of negative - duration funds to achieve all - weather allocation of bond assets [13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Public Funds' Current Participation in Treasury Bond Futures - **Increasing Position Size and 1% Market Share**: By the end of Q3 2025, 141 public funds held treasury bond futures, with a total of 13,068 contracts (3,992 long contracts, accounting for 0.6% of the market's long contracts; 9,076 short contracts, accounting for 1.4% of the market's short contracts). Public funds are required to disclose treasury bond futures trading information in regular reports [15][17] - **Short - Dominated Position Structure**: As of the end of Q3 2025, 79 public funds had net short positions in treasury bond futures, while 60 had net long positions. The market value of short contracts was about 11 billion yuan, higher than the 5.6 - billion - yuan market value of long contracts, indicating a preference for short positions to hedge against interest - rate risks [18] - **Strategy and Contract Selection: Focus on Single - Variety and Single - Maturity**: In Q3 2025, 63.8% of funds held single - maturity treasury bond futures contracts, with 39 long - position funds and 51 short - position funds, far more than those using cross - variety or cross - maturity strategies [23][24] - **Concentration on Active Contracts**: In Q3 2025, the combined position of T2512, TS2512, and TL2512 active contracts accounted for over 90%. The number of short contracts for TL2512 and T2512 was significantly higher than that of long contracts [27] - **Mid - and Long - Term Pure Bond Funds as the Main Force**: By the end of Q3 2025, mid - and long - term pure bond funds were the main participants in the treasury bond futures market, with 47 funds, an increase of 4 compared to Q2. The number of partial - debt hybrid funds also increased, while the number of short - term pure bond funds, hybrid bond - type secondary funds, and hybrid bond - type primary funds decreased [28][31] - **Leading Layout by Top - Tier Institutions**: By the end of Q3 2025, top - tier fund companies such as Harvest Fund and E Fund each had 14 related products, showing an advanced ability in interest - rate risk management [37] - **Significant Differences in Allocation Intensity**: The allocation intensity of treasury bond futures among different public funds varies greatly, mainly due to differences in investment strategies, risk - tolerance levels, and interest - rate risk judgments. For example, E Fund Credit Bond had a higher short - position allocation ratio than the market average, and Huataibaoxing Kaiyuan 3 - Month had a contract - value - to - fund - scale ratio of 27.1% [40] Negative - Duration Investment Strategy Based on Treasury Bond Futures Shorts - **Stock "Negative - Duration" Funds**: The current stock of "negative - duration" funds is small, and the degree of "negativity" in duration is limited. This may be due to data errors in the calculation and the regulatory requirement of using treasury bond futures for hedging purposes. These funds typically hold bonds with a duration of about one year, mainly short 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures, and the combined duration of futures and bonds is mostly within negative one year [46] - **Constructing a "Negative - Duration" Portfolio**: To maximize the negative duration within regulatory requirements, the following operations can be adopted: investing only in cash bonds and treasury bond futures, setting the short - position market value of treasury bond futures at a maximum of 30%, leveraging the portfolio to a maximum of 140%, short - selling 30 - year treasury bond futures, and choosing short - term bonds with a duration close to 0. The maximum negative duration of the fund can reach - 7.1 years [50][51][55]