证券研究报告 行业研究 [行业Table投资策略 _ReportType] 电电力行业 [Table_Author] 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 电改步入下半场，机遇与挑战并存 [Table_Industry] ——2026 电力行业年度策略报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 05 日 唐婵玉 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500525050001 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [电改步入下半场，机遇与挑战并存 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 05 日 本期内容提要: 展望未来， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][5] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a stable high dividend yield, with a commitment to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 75% and a minimum DPS of 0.19 RMB, corresponding to a guaranteed dividend yield of 5.2% for 2025-2027 [4][5] - The integration of coal and power operations allows the company to mitigate the impact of rising coal prices, as its fuel cost pressure is significantly lower compared to companies with a lower proportion of long-term coal contracts [3][5] - The injection of high-quality assets from the group is anticipated to enhance the company's asset scale and profitability, with the potential to increase operational coal power capacity by 231 MW and coal production capacity by 67% [2][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a minimum DPS of 0.19 RMB for 2025-2027, which translates to a guaranteed dividend yield of 5.2% based on the closing price as of December 3, 2025 [4][5] Financial Projections - The projected net profit for the company for 2025-2027 is 875 million, 892 million, and 908 million RMB respectively, with BPS expected to be 3.17, 3.40, and 3.64 RMB [5][11] - The target price for the company is set at 5.28 RMB, reflecting a target PB of 1.55x for 2026 [5][11] Market Context - The report highlights the increasing preference for stable high-dividend stocks amid uncertainties in the profitability expectations for thermal power companies in 2026 due to fluctuations in coal prices and ongoing market reforms [1][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive movement in the power and energy sector, particularly in green electricity, driven by new government policies aimed at promoting renewable energy consumption and regulation [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued guidelines to ensure the reasonable consumption of 200 million kilowatts of renewable energy annually by 2030, reinforcing the goal of large-scale development of renewable energy during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The value of green electricity and energy storage is expected to be reassessed, with the inherent value of renewable energy adjusted for its volatility and enhanced by its positive externalities, potentially stabilizing the overall returns from green electricity [1] Group 2 - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Green Electricity Index include major players such as Three Gorges Energy, Yangtze Power, and China Nuclear Power, collectively accounting for 55.83% of the index [1] - The Green Electricity ETF (159625) closely tracks the National Green Electricity Index, providing a convenient tool for investors to gain exposure to the overall performance of listed companies in the green electricity sector [1] - Investors can also access investment opportunities through the corresponding Green Electricity ETF linked fund (017057) [2]

数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 附注 上市企业：华锦股份（000059）、冰山冷热（000530）、*ST惠天（000692）、沈阳化工（000698）、 铁岭新城（000809）、大连重工（002204）、大金重工（002487）、聆达股份（300125）、联美控股 （600167）、时代万恒（600241）、恒力石化（600346）、*ST金山（600396）、大连热电 （600719）、辽宁能源（600758）、国电电力（600795）、水发燃气（603318） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国能源行业市场研究分析及投资前景评估报告》 2025年10月，辽宁省发电190.3亿千瓦时，同比增长11.3%。2025年1-10月，辽宁省发电1933.4亿千瓦 时，同比增长5.4%。分品种看，2025年1-10月，辽宁省火力发电量1087亿千瓦时，占总发电量的 56.2%，同比增长5.4%；辽宁省水力发电量49.5亿千瓦时，占总发电量的2.6%，同比增长38.1%；辽宁 省核能发电量431亿千瓦时，占总发电量的22.3%，同比增长0.9%；辽宁省风力发电量304.4亿千瓦时， 占总发电量的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the environmental and public utility sector [2] Core Insights - The environmental and public utility sectors have shown an upward trend, with the environmental index increasing by 1.59% and the public utility index by 0.89% [5][10] - The coal industry is experiencing a decline in production, with national raw coal output decreasing by 3.8%, 3.2%, and 1.8% in July, August, and September respectively [5] - The report highlights the introduction of new pricing regulations for transmission and distribution, encouraging the exploration of capacity pricing for cross-regional projects [8][50] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the power sector, particularly recommending companies like Guodian Power and Anhui Energy [5] Summary by Sections Key Event Interpretations - New transmission and distribution pricing regulations have been released, promoting capacity pricing for cross-regional projects [8] - The oil and gas extraction sector has been included in the carbon market, incentivizing methane reduction [9] Market Review - Both the environmental and public utility sectors have seen increases, with the environmental sector outperforming the market with a cumulative increase of 16.94% in 2025 [10] - The power sector has lagged behind, with a cumulative increase of only 2.43% [10] Key Data Tracking - As of November 28, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal is 820 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [24] - The average price of LNG at the port is 10.94 USD/million BTU (4026 CNY/ton), down 4.42% from the previous week [37] - The weighted average electricity price in Guangdong reached a peak of 252.14 CNY/MWh on November 24, 2025, an increase of 10.7% [41] Industry Key Events - The Hebei Development and Reform Commission has issued a work plan for long-term electricity trading in 2026 [49] - The National Development and Reform Commission has published new pricing methods for cross-regional transmission projects [50]

王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 傅浩玮 A0230522010001 fuhw@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 站玩人行业 证券分析师 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 — 申万公用环保周报(25/11/24~25/11/28) 本期投资提示: 公用事亦 2025 年 12 月 01 日 相关研究 多地规范售电批零价差 欧亚 第12年 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 电力：广东发函规范售电批零价差。广东电力交易中心发布关于征求广东电力零售市场交易结算 有关事项意见的函（广东交易函〔2025〕11 号)。自 2026 年起，拟对各售电公司月度平均度电 批零差价高于差价收益上限 0.01 元/千瓦时的部分，按照 1:9 比例由售电公司与零售用户分享。今 年以陕西、安徽、四川、山东、新疆为代表的多个省区相继出台针对售电公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment outlook for the public utilities and environmental sectors, particularly in the context of recent regulatory changes and market dynamics [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the regulatory measures in various provinces aimed at standardizing the retail price differences in electricity sales, which is expected to stabilize market expectations and improve the profitability of electricity sales companies [3][7]. - It notes the fluctuating natural gas prices globally, with U.S. prices rising while European prices are declining, indicating a complex supply-demand landscape influenced by geopolitical factors and seasonal demand [12][22]. - The report provides specific investment recommendations across various segments, including hydropower, thermal power, nuclear power, green energy, and gas-related companies, reflecting a diversified approach to capitalize on emerging opportunities [10][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Regulation of Retail Price Differences - Guangdong has issued guidelines to regulate the retail price differences, proposing a sharing mechanism for excess profits above a set threshold starting in 2026 [7]. - Several provinces have introduced detailed policies to manage retail price differences, aiming to prevent excessive profits by electricity sales companies and ensure fair pricing for consumers [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the need for a shift from aggressive pricing strategies to a service-oriented business model for electricity sales companies, which could stabilize market expectations [9]. 2. Natural Gas: Global Price Fluctuations - As of November 28, U.S. Henry Hub spot prices reached $4.59/mmBtu, reflecting an 11.13% weekly increase, while European prices, such as TTF, fell by 5.37% to €28.75/MWh [12][13]. - The report notes that U.S. natural gas demand has surged due to cold weather, despite record production levels, leading to a tightening supply-demand balance [16]. - In Northeast Asia, LNG prices have decreased to $10.90/mmBtu, down 6.52% week-on-week, driven by weak demand and high inventory levels [31][34]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Hydropower: Favorable autumn floods are expected to enhance hydropower generation capacity for the winter and spring, with recommendations for major hydropower companies [10]. - Thermal Power: The diversification of revenue sources in thermal power companies is highlighted, with recommendations for integrated coal and power companies [11]. - Nuclear Power: The report suggests focusing on nuclear power companies due to stable cost structures and expected growth from new approvals [11]. - Green Energy: The introduction of new market rules for renewable energy is expected to stabilize returns for green energy operators [11]. - Gas and Environmental Companies: Recommendations include integrated gas trading companies and environmentally focused firms benefiting from regulatory changes [37].

主题：板块回调，重视当前时点煤炭红利价值 20251130 摘要 近期煤炭价格出现回调，但港口低库存、产地安监约束及进口量偏低等 因素支撑煤价韧性，日耗改善或推动价格进一步上涨，预判此轮下跌为 回调，后续有望改善。 四季度新核增产能释放，内蒙产能利用率提升，但山西、陕西产能利用 率仍偏低，反映安全检查严格，预计 2025 年全年煤炭供应维持约束状 态。 预计 2026 年煤炭供应增速持平甚至下降，因国企主导减产更具可操作 性，且防通缩背景下减产具持续性，这将为 2026 年煤价提供支撑。 2025 年前三季度煤炭进口量同比下降，尽管国内外价差缩小，但海运 煤进口量仍偏低，受中印电厂库存高、我国加强劣质煤管控及印尼雨季 影响。 国内外市场供给紧张将成为支撑煤价的重要因素，即使国内价格提升， 发运和进口也无明显起色。 测算显示，2025 年合理利润条件下电厂可接受的煤价盈亏平衡点约为 930 元/吨，若 2026 年电价下降 4 分钱，则对应 760 元/吨，中枢为 845 元/吨。 投资策略推荐攻守兼备的兖矿、电投，稳健龙头中煤、陕煤、神华，以 及高赔率弹性公司，关注政策刺激或需求改善带来的反转机会。 Q&A ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [10]. Core Insights - The recent revision of the pricing methods for transmission and distribution aims to enhance the consumption of renewable energy, with a focus on establishing a fair cost-sharing mechanism among grid companies, power generation enterprises, and users [2][6]. - The new regulations are expected to lower transmission and distribution costs, thereby making electricity pricing more reasonable while promoting the utilization of renewable energy [12]. Summary by Sections Pricing Method Revisions - The National Development and Reform Commission has revised four pricing methods related to transmission and distribution, adapting to the new requirements of the power system and focusing on renewable energy consumption [6]. - Key changes include the introduction of a single capacity pricing system for grid companies serving renewable energy projects, enhancing regulatory oversight throughout the process [7]. Cost Monitoring - The new methods provide a more accurate reflection of financing costs for grid companies by establishing a loan interest rate based on the average financing rate of the group [6]. - Changes in cost parameters for materials and management fees aim to ensure that costs do not exceed previously established limits, thus improving the accuracy of cost monitoring [6][7]. Provincial and Cross-Regional Pricing - The revised methods allow for adjustments in the return on equity for provincial grid companies, ensuring a balance between reasonable returns and user affordability [7]. - For cross-regional projects, the report suggests exploring two-part or single capacity transmission pricing, which is expected to facilitate the consumption of renewable energy across provinces [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and Guodian Power, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and State Investment Power [12]. - It also highlights opportunities in the renewable energy sector, suggesting investments in companies like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power, which are expected to benefit from favorable policy changes and market conditions [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Views - The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced new pricing regulations for power transmission and distribution, which will promote the development of green electricity. The new regulations focus on local consumption and cross-province transmission, facilitating the utilization of renewable energy and enhancing the efficiency of power grid companies [2][13] - The exploration of a two-part or capacity-based pricing system for cross-province and cross-region projects will stabilize the revenue from clean energy transmission and improve the utilization rate of high-voltage channels [3][14] - Multiple provinces are rolling out market-oriented trading plans for 2026, which will accelerate the transformation of the electricity market by mandating a high proportion of long-term contracts and ensuring that coal-fired power trading prices fluctuate within a specified range [8][10] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the positive impact of new transmission and distribution pricing regulations on renewable energy consumption and the introduction of market-oriented trading plans for 2026 [2][8] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,888.6 points, up 1.4%, while the CSI 300 Index rose 1.64% to 4,526.66 points. The CITIC Power and Utilities Index increased by 0.88%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.76 percentage points [63][64] Key Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on flexible resources such as thermal power and investment opportunities in energy storage and virtual power plants. Specific stocks highlighted include Huaneng International, Huadian International, and China Nuclear Power [8][9]