Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The price of piglets follows a clear historical pattern, with expectations for continued price increases followed by a decline around May/June. A significant capacity reduction cycle is anticipated in 2026, primarily occurring in the second half of the year, while stock prices are expected to start rising in the first half [5][6] - The report emphasizes that piglet prices are influenced by production patterns, with December and January being peak slaughter months, leading to increased demand for piglets. Conversely, supply remains relatively stable, which can lead to price increases when demand surges [7] - The report highlights that piglet prices do not correlate with pig price expectations and cannot be used to predict pig prices. The annual variations in piglet prices are consistent, while pig prices fluctuate yearly, indicating a lack of direct relationship [7] - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, predicting a significant capacity reduction cycle in 2026. It suggests that the first half of 2026 will resemble the first half of 2023, with losses in fat pigs but profits in piglets, leading to a smoother capacity reduction after the anticipated price drop in May/June [7] - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Tiankang Biological, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group, as their valuations are currently at the bottom, with potential for stock price increases as the industry faces losses and clearer capacity reduction trends [7][8] Summary by Sections Historical Price Trends - Piglet prices exhibit a clear historical trend, typically bottoming out in December/January and peaking in May/June. The fluctuations are tied to seasonal production patterns and demand cycles [5][7] Production and Supply Dynamics - The report discusses the relationship between supply and demand, noting that while supply is stable, demand spikes during certain months can lead to price increases. The cyclical nature of pig farming is highlighted, with adjustments made to align production with demand [7] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies a significant capacity reduction cycle in the pig farming industry for 2026, suggesting that investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and current low valuations, as they are likely to benefit from the anticipated market changes [7][8]

牧原股份（002714）近日发布的2025年度业绩预告显示，公司预计全年实现净利润147亿元-157亿元， 比上年同期下降12.20%-17.79%，预计归属于上市公司股东扣除非经常性损益后的净利润151亿元-161亿 元。牧原股份（002714）在公告中表示，2025年受生猪市场行情波动影响，全年商品猪销售均价约13.5 元/公斤，同比下降约17.3%，使得公司整体盈利水平较上年同期有所下滑。 1月29日，河南养殖龙头牧原食品股份有限公司(下称"牧原股份（002714）"，002714.SZ)启动H股招 股。本次牧原股份（002714）H股全球发售由摩根士丹利（MS）亚洲、中信证券（600030）(香港)及高 盛（GS）(亚洲)担任联席保荐人。 根据本次H股全球发售方案，牧原股份（002714）拟发售H股总数达2.74亿股，其中香港公开发售占比 10%，共2739.52万股；国际发售占比90%，共2.47亿股。同时，牧原股份（002714）授予国际包销商 15%的超额配股权，可额外配发最多4109.27万股H股，用以补足市场超额分配需求。 香港公开发售于1月29日上午9时正式开启，认购期至2月3日中午12时 ...

SDICSI 2026 年 1 月 30 日 牧原股份 (2714.HK) 牧原股份 IPO 点评报告 公司概览 公司是国内领先的生猪养殖企业，根据弗若斯特沙利文统计，自2021年起，按生猪 产能及出栏量计量，公司是全球第一大生猪养殖企业，生猪出栏量连续四年全球 第一。公司2023全年/2024全年/2025年1-9月收入分别为1108/1379/1118亿元，同 比增长-11%/24%/15%。毛利率分别为3.1%/19.1%/18.7%,净利润分别为 -41.7/189/151亿元，净利率分别为-3.8%/13.7%/13.5%。截至2025年9月30日，公 司在中国23个省份设立运营超过1,000个生猪养殖场，产能达到826万头。2023全年 在行业内规模领先，在巨大规模下，具有良好的成本管控能力，使得公司在猪价波 动时有更好的盈利能力；资产规模较大，资产负债率在行业中处于中游水平，抗风 险能力相对较强。 弱项与风险 行业竞争激烈，同质化程度较高，猪价周期性波动，对业绩产生较大影响。 招股信息 招股时间为2026年1月29日至2026年2月3日，上市交易时间为2月6日。 /2024 全 年 /2025 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - Mu Yuan Food Co., Ltd. (牧原股份) expects a net profit of 14.7 billion to 15.7 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.20% to 17.79% due to lower average selling prices of live pigs and increased production management efficiency [1] - Wen's Food Group Co., Ltd. (温氏股份) anticipates a net profit of 5 billion to 5.5 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 40.73% to 46.12% driven by lower sales prices of both live pigs and chickens [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The overall pig farming industry is experiencing an increase in volume but a decrease in price, leading to a differentiated profitability landscape, with larger enterprises maintaining relative profitability due to scale advantages while smaller operators exit the market [3] - The phenomenon of "旺季不旺" (旺季不旺) in 2026 is attributed to a combination of supply-demand imbalance, weak demand, and cyclical mismatches, with high inventory levels of breeding sows contributing to increased output but lower prices [3] - Analysts predict that pig prices may stabilize and rebound in the second half of 2026, although the extent of the rebound may be limited due to improved production efficiency of sows and preemptive restocking behaviors among producers [3]

公司是国内领先的生猪养殖企业，根据弗若斯特沙利文统计，自2021年起，按生猪 产能及出栏量计量，公司是全球第一大生猪养殖企业，生猪出栏量连续四年全球 第一。公司2023全年/2024全年/2025年1-9月收入分别为1108/1379/1118亿元，同 比增长-11%/24%/15%。毛利率分别为3.1%/19.1%/18.7%,净利润分别为 -41.7/189/151亿元，净利率分别为-3.8%/13.7%/13.5%。截至2025年9月30日，公 司在中国23个省份设立运营超过1,000个生猪养殖场，产能达到826万头。2023全年 /2024 全 年 /2025 年 1-9 月 出栏量 分别为 6381/7160/6923 万 头 ， 同 比 增 长 4.3%/12.2%/38%。 SDICSI 2026 年 1 月 30 日 牧原股份 (2714.HK) 公司的业务呈周期性波动，主要受到猪价的影响，而猪价随行业供需的变化周期 性波动。2023年猪价下跌，导致利润出现亏损，24年猪价回升，叠加出栏量增长， 实现良好的业绩反转。25年前三季度，猪价再次下跌，但是由于生猪出栏量增加， 部分抵消了猪价的负面影 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. has launched its H-share IPO, aiming to raise funds amid a challenging market environment for the pig farming industry [1] - Muyuan Foods plans to issue a total of 274 million H-shares, with 10% allocated for public offering in Hong Kong and 90% for international placement [1] - The IPO price is set at a maximum of 39 HKD per share, which represents a discount of approximately 25% compared to its A-share price of 46 RMB (about 51.67 HKD) [1] Group 2 - Muyuan Foods is the largest pig farming company globally, with an expected breeding capacity of 81 million pigs per year by the end of 2024 [1] - The company forecasts a net profit of 14.7 billion to 15.7 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting a decline of 12.20% to 17.79% year-on-year due to fluctuations in the pig market [4][6] - The average selling price of commercial pigs is expected to be around 13.5 RMB per kilogram in 2025, down approximately 17.3% compared to the previous year [4][6] Group 3 - The domestic supply of breeding sows remains high, coupled with improved industry biosecurity and production efficiency, leading to increased pig supply [7] - Despite a slight increase in pig prices in January 2026, the overall market remains under pressure, with expectations of price declines post-holiday [7] - Muyuan Foods aims to use approximately 10% of the net proceeds from the IPO, around 1.046 billion HKD, for working capital and general corporate purposes [7]

记者丨刘婧汐 编辑丨高梦阳 1月29日，河南养殖龙头牧原食品股份有限公司（下称"牧原股份"，002714.SZ）启动H股招股。本次牧原股份H股全球发售由摩根士丹利亚 洲、中信证券（香港）及高盛（亚洲）担任联席保荐人。 根据本次H股全球发售方案，牧原股份拟发售H股总数达2.74亿股，其中香港公开发售占比10%，共2739.52万股；国际发售占比90%，共2.47 亿股。同时，牧原股份授予国际包销商15%的超额配股权，可额外配发最多4109.27万股H股，用以补足市场超额分配需求。 香港公开发售于1月29日上午9时正式开启，认购期至2月3日中午12时结束。 值得注意的是，牧原股份此次港股IPO招股价≤39港元，而1月30日A股收报46元人民币（约51.67港元）。 按照上限定价算，牧原股份港股招 股价相比A股折价约25%，并低于其2021年A股定向增发的发行价39.97元/股，新发股票价格不升反降。 牧原股份总部位于河南南阳，是全球最大的生猪养殖企业，2024年末养殖产能已达8100万头/年，形成集饲料加工、生猪育种、商品猪饲养、 屠宰肉食为一体的完整猪肉产业链。 据《2025胡润百富榜》，牧原股份创始人秦英林以 ...

1月29日，河南养殖龙头牧原食品股份有限公司（下称"牧原股份"，002714.SZ）启动H股招股。本次牧 原股份H股全球发售由摩根士丹利亚洲、中信证券（香港）及高盛（亚洲）担任联席保荐人。 21世纪经济报道记者 刘婧汐 根据本次H股全球发售方案，牧原股份拟发售H股总数达2.74亿股，其中香港公开发售占比10%，共 2739.52万股；国际发售占比90%，共2.47亿股。同时，牧原股份授予国际包销商15%的超额配股权，可 额外配发最多4109.27万股H股，用以补足市场超额分配需求。 香港公开发售于1月29日上午9时正式开启，认购期至2月3日中午12时结束。 值得注意的是，牧原股份此次港股IPO招股价≤39港元，而1月30日A股收报46元人民币（约51.67港 元）。按照上限定价算，牧原股份港股招股价相比A股折价约25%，并低于其2021年A股定向增发的发 行价39.97元/股，新发股票价格不升反降。 据国金证券研报，目前生猪价格底部震荡，整体来看供给端压力或使得节后猪价下跌。 在行业承压的大背景下，牧原股份赴港上市或许是其打开新融资渠道的重要一步。牧原股份在招股书中 表示，募集资金净额约10%，即约10.46 ...

《星岛》见习记者 洪雨欣 深圳报道 在生猪行业持续承压的背景下，养殖龙头牧原食品股份有限公司（下称"牧原股份"，002714.SZ）赴港 上市的步伐引发市场关注。 1月29日，牧原股份正式启动港股IPO招股，全球发售2.74亿股H股，最高发行价定为39港元/股（约合 34.71元人民币），预计募资104.6亿港元。 假设行使超额配售权，则牧原股份此次最多募资106.84亿港元。 然而，这一价格折算成人民币后，大致相当于牧原股份20日均价（47.73元/股）的七折，并低于其2021 年A股定向增发的发行价——当时为39.97元/股。 截至1月29日，牧原股份为A股同业中估值第一，总市值达2530.90亿元；H股同业中估值第一的海天味 业（03288.HK）总市值为1867.90亿港元（约合人民币1660亿元）。 值得注意的是，该轮定增正值猪周期由盛转衰的拐点，但牧原股份的资产状况和盈利状况仍表现良好。 2019年末至2022年9月末，公司资产总额从528.87亿元增长至1850.07亿元；营业收入分别为202.21亿 元、562.77亿元、788.90亿元和807.74亿元。 而如今，即便考虑汇率因素（按1港元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][41]. Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.07% from January 16 to January 29, 2026, lagging behind the index by approximately 0.12 percentage points [3][10]. - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable increases in planting (9.25%), animal health (4.71%), agricultural product processing (4.12%), and fishery (1.82%), while feed and breeding sectors saw declines of 0.02% and 2.84%, respectively [3][13][14]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry was approximately 2.66 times as of January 29, 2026, indicating that the industry is at a relatively low valuation level compared to historical averages, positioned at about 59.9% of the valuation center since 2006 [3][18]. Industry Key Data - **Pig Farming**: - The average price of external three yuan pigs fluctuated from 12.76 CNY/kg to 13.24 CNY/kg before dropping to 12.52 CNY/kg during the reporting period [3][22]. - The breeding sow inventory reached 39.61 million heads by the end of December 2025, a decrease of 0.73% from the previous month, remaining within the normal range of 39 million heads [3][22]. - The profit from self-bred pigs was 25.1 CNY/head, while the profit from purchased piglets was 124.13 CNY/head, both maintaining positive profitability [3][26]. - **Poultry Farming**: - The average price of broiler chicks was 2.31 CNY/chick, showing a slight decrease, while the average price for layer chicks was 3.2 CNY/chick, which saw a minor increase [3][28]. - The average price for white feather broilers was 7.74 CNY/kg, with a profit of 0.39 CNY/chick, indicating a recovery in profitability [3][32]. - **Aquaculture**: - The average wholesale price for crucian carp and carp was stable, with prices at 19.4 CNY/kg and 13.88 CNY/kg, respectively, showing slight increases [3][33]. Industry Important News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting to discuss stabilizing beef production and alleviating dairy industry challenges, emphasizing the need for effective policies to support these sectors [3][35]. - A meeting was also held to coordinate efforts in the seed industry revitalization action, focusing on enhancing domestic seed security and promoting technological independence [3][38]. Company Highlights - Key companies to watch include: - Muyuan Foods (牧原股份, 002714): A leading player in pig farming with cost and scale advantages [3][42]. - Haida Group (海大集团, 002311): A leading feed company expected to maintain steady market share growth [3][42]. - Shengnong Development (圣农发展, 002299): A leader in the white feather broiler industry with advantages in seed sources [3][42]. - Reap Bio (瑞普生物, 300119): A leader in the animal health sector with a growing product matrix for pet health [3][42]. - Longping High-Tech (隆平高科, 000998): A leading seed company with advanced transgenic reserves [3][42].