1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Range oscillation [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Bean meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No.2: Oscillation with a downward bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slightly upward bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading logic of iron ore has increased uncertainty, with short - term support under supply - side interference. The follow - up focus is on the actual impact on the supply side and October steel demand [2]. - In October, the supply of coking coal in China is expected to run stably, with limited increase. Coke supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and its trend follows coking coal. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy [2]. - For rebar, the futures price has a low static valuation. The supply side may shrink, and the focus is on the demand recovery in October. The price needs to see rapid post - festival inventory reduction to stabilize [2]. - The glass market has short - term support from the replenishment market, but the demand is difficult to improve fundamentally. The supply - demand is basically balanced, and the follow - up should pay attention to production and policy changes [2]. - The stock index market is volatile, with an optimistic upward outlook. Stock index long positions should maintain the current position, while Treasury bond long positions should be held lightly [4]. - The logic for the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed. It is expected to show strong - biased oscillation, affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical risks [4][6]. - Logs are expected to oscillate in a range, with supply - side pressure not significant and an increase in daily outbound volume [6]. - Pulp prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom, affected by cost support and demand factors [6]. - The oil and fat market continues the range - oscillation pattern, with significant differentiation among varieties. Attention should be paid to Brazilian soybean sowing and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [6]. - Bean meal prices are expected to move downward in the short term, affected by supply and demand factors such as new soybean listings and changes in Chinese demand [6][7]. - Live pig prices are expected to oscillate slightly downward in the short term, with sufficient supply and weak downstream demand [7]. - Natural rubber prices may show wide - range oscillation, affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [9]. - The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are mainly affected by cost, supply, and demand factors, with different trends [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: During the long holiday, the Singapore Exchange iron ore swaps rose slightly. There are new concerns about supply, and the short - term supply - side interference provides support. The follow - up core is steel demand in October [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: In October, domestic coking coal supply is expected to be stable, with production lower than last year. Coke's first - round price increase was implemented, and the second - round basically failed. Coke supply - demand contradiction is not large, and it follows coking coal [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: During the long holiday, Tangshan billet prices were stable. Rebar futures have a low valuation, and the supply side may shrink. The focus is on demand recovery in October, and the price needs rapid post - festival de - stocking [2]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment was boosted by news, and prices rose. Supply was stable last week, and there was short - term support from replenishment. However, long - term demand is suppressed by the real estate adjustment [2]. - **Soda ash**: Although the report mentions it in the context, there is no specific in - depth analysis other than the overall "oscillation" rating [2]. Financial and Precious Metals - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market is volatile. The overall upward outlook is optimistic, and stock index long positions should maintain the current position [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates are volatile, and Treasury bond trends are weak. Treasury bond long positions should be held lightly [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing. The logic for the rise has not reversed, and it is expected to show strong - biased oscillation, affected by the Fed's policy and geopolitical risks [4][6]. Light Industry - **Logs**: Port daily shipment volume increased, and supply is expected to be tight. The cost support is enhanced, and it is expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - **Pulp**: Spot prices fluctuated. Cost support is enhanced, but demand improvement is uncertain. It is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Double - offset paper**: The spot price is stable. Production is relatively stable, and demand is expected to improve, but prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oil and Fats - **Soybean oil, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil**: The oil and fat market shows a wide - range oscillation pattern. There are differences among varieties, affected by factors such as Argentine exports, biodiesel, and seasonal production [6]. - **Bean meal, Rapeseed meal**: Although there is some support from US domestic demand, new soybean listings and Brazilian production potential bring supply pressure. Prices are expected to move downward [6][7]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight is declining, and supply is sufficient. Downstream demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate slightly downward [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyester - **Rubber**: Supply - side pressure in Yunnan has decreased, while Hainan's output is lower than expected. Demand has improved slightly, and inventory is decreasing. Prices may show wide - range oscillation [9]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: These products are mainly affected by cost, supply, and demand factors. Their prices show different trends such as oscillation, wait - and - see, etc. [9]

Group 1: Black Industry - Investment Rating: Adjustment - Core View: After the National Day, the trading focus will gradually shift to reality. The supply - demand patterns of iron ore, coal - coke, and steel products face challenges, while glass has short - term sentiment - driven fluctuations and long - term industry adjustment pressures [2] - Directory Summary: - Iron Ore: Overseas supply is rising, and although demand is currently okay, the supply - demand pattern is weakening. The main iron ore futures price has declined from its high. The 2601 contract is in high - level adjustment [2] - Coal - Coke: Coal supply is abundant, and the difficulty of price support for coking coal will increase. Coke price hikes are expected to be implemented, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious. The coke market follows coking coal, and attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: The supply - demand pattern of rebar is average, with weak downstream performance. The steel price is under pressure again. To reach the normal seasonal inventory level, production needs to decline by about 10000 tons. The 2601 contract is in weak shock operation [2] - Glass: The industry was called to raise prices, which may stimulate pre - holiday restocking. In the long run, the real estate industry is in adjustment. Attention should be paid to production and policy changes during the holiday [2] Group 2: Financial Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including shock, rebound, etc.) - Core View: The market is affected by policies and economic data. The stock index market has different trends, and the bond market is under pressure. Gold shows a relatively strong shock trend [3][4] - Directory Summary: - Stock Index Futures/Options: The stock index market has different trends. The Politburo meeting emphasized high - quality development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. The new policy financial tools may boost investment. It is recommended to control risk preferences [3][4] - Treasury Bonds: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has risen, and the market interest rate has fluctuated. Treasury bond bulls should hold lightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing. Factors such as central bank gold purchases, currency credit issues, and geopolitical risks support the price. It is expected to be in a relatively strong shock [4] Group 3: Light Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including range shock, consolidation, etc.) - Core View: The supply - demand situations of different products in the light industry are different, and the price trends are also diverse [5] - Directory Summary: - Logs: The supply is tightening, the cost support is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be in range shock [5] - Pulp: The cost support is increasing, but the demand is not strong. It is expected to be in bottom - level consolidation [5] - Offset Paper: The production is relatively stable, the demand is expected to improve, but the profit is low. It is expected to be in shock [5] Group 4: Oil and Fat Industry - Investment Rating: Wide - range shock, shock - bearish - Core View: The supply - demand relationships of oils and fats are complex, affected by factors such as production, policy, and inventory. The supply of meal products is relatively loose [5] - Directory Summary: - Oils: The supply pressure of palm oil is increasing, but there are also factors such as production reduction and policy changes. The supply of domestic soybean oil is abundant. It is expected that oils will be in wide - range shock [5] - Meal Products: The supply of domestic soybean meal is loose, and the export of US soybeans is weak. It is expected that meal products will be in shock - bearish trend [5] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Investment Rating: Shock - strong, shock - weak - Core View: The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the demand has short - term fluctuations. The price is expected to be in short - term weak shock [6] - Directory Summary: - Live Pigs: The average trading weight is declining, the demand for pre - holiday stocking is increasing, but the sales pressure is also rising. The price is expected to be in short - term weak shock [6] Group 6: Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including shock, wait - and - see, etc.) - Core View: The supply - demand situations of soft commodities and polyester products are complex, and the price trends are different [7][8] - Directory Summary: - Rubber: The supply is affected by weather, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be in wide - range shock [8] - PX: There are potential supply risks, and the supply - demand is decreasing. The price follows oil prices [8] - PTA: The cost support may weaken, and the supply - demand is marginally weakening. The price follows cost fluctuations [8] - MEG: The supply pressure is increasing, and the short - term price is affected by cost fluctuations [8] - PR: The market trading is expected to be dull, and the price is expected to be stable [8] - PF: The cost support may weaken, and the market may have narrow - range consolidation [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long - term for stock indices, recommend buying on dips; hold a neutral stance on treasury bonds and maintain a wait - and - see approach [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Adopt a range - trading strategy for coking coal and rebar; recommend buying on dips for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Advise cautious trading before holidays for copper; suggest buying on dips after a pullback for aluminum; recommend a wait - and - see approach or shorting on rallies for nickel; adopt a range - trading strategy for tin, gold, and silver [1][11][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Expect PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol to trade sideways; anticipate wide - range fluctuations for polyolefins; recommend an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract for soda ash [1][20][22][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Expect cotton and cotton yarn to trade sideways; anticipate narrow - range fluctuations for PTA; expect apples to trend slightly upwards and jujubes to trend slightly downwards [1][34][36] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Recommend shorting on rallies for pigs and eggs; expect wide - range fluctuations for corn; anticipate range - bound oscillations for soybean meal; expect oils to trend slightly upwards [1][38][45] Core Views - The overall futures market presents a complex situation with different investment strategies recommended for various sectors. Positive factors such as monetary policy easing, industry growth, and technological breakthroughs support the stock index market, while uncertainties in factors like macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade impact other sectors [1][5][11] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: With the support of positive factors such as moderately loose monetary policy, stable growth in the non - ferrous metals industry, and breakthroughs in the solid - state battery field, the market was active on Monday. The A - share market has been in a sideways trend since September, showing a technology - driven structural market. In the medium term, factors like Fed rate cuts, improved Sino - US relations, and the prosperity of emerging sectors are expected to drive the market upwards. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields rose on Monday, and the curve steepened. The spread between policy - bank bonds and treasury bonds widened. The central bank emphasized policy implementation in the third - quarter meeting minutes, and there is uncertainty about the implementation of incremental monetary policies in the fourth quarter. It is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see approach [5] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a "Golden September" in the coal industry. Coal prices have risen across the board, and the procurement rhythm has accelerated. It is expected to trade sideways [7] - **Rebar**: On Monday, rebar futures prices were weak. The current valuation is low, and the demand is weak. It is necessary to focus on the demand in October. It is recommended to wait and see or engage in short - term trading before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: Last week, glass futures first declined and then rose. Spot prices increased, and inventories decreased. The demand for real - estate construction in October provides weak support, and there are positive expectations from domestic macro - news and environmental policies. It is recommended to buy on dips [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Grasberg mine accident has led to a long - term increase in the copper price center. In the short term, the price has fallen due to profit - taking, but it is expected to be strong. It is recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite has declined, and the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is stable. The demand has entered the peak season, and inventories have decreased. It is recommended to buy on dips [11][12] - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, and the supply of refined nickel is in surplus. The price of nickel iron has limited upside, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor and photovoltaic industries are recovering. It is recommended to trade within a range [17] - **Gold and Silver**: The market's expectation of Fed rate cuts has increased, and precious metals are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade within a range [17][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export support may decline, and the overall supply - demand situation is still weak. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term [21] - **Caustic Soda**: The upstream inventory has increased, and the demand from downstream industries has increased. It is expected to trade sideways, and attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment and export conditions [23] - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the supply is abundant, and the demand is limited. It is expected to trade weakly within a range [26] - **Rubber**: The raw material supply is expected to increase, and the market trading is light before the holiday. It is expected to trade sideways [27] - **Urea**: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory has accumulated. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level and arbitrage opportunities [28] - **Methanol**: The supply has recovered, the demand from the main downstream industry has increased, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to be supported in the short term [29] - **Polyolefins**: The supply has increased, the demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to trade within a range, and the LP spread is expected to widen [30] - **Soda Ash**: The price has been driven up by glass, and the inventory has decreased. The output of Yuanxing's second - phase project is expected to increase, and it is recommended to adopt an arbitrage strategy [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand situation has changed, and the current spot market is firm, but there is pressure on future prices. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [34] - **PTA**: The conflict in Russia and Ukraine has increased, and the international oil price has risen. The cost and supply - demand relationship are in a game, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [34][35] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and it is expected to trend slightly upwards. Attention should be paid to factors such as terminal market transactions and weather [36] - **Jujubes**: The growth of jujubes in Xinjiang shows differences, and the market is currently quiet. It is expected to rebound after a decline [36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The spot price is weak, and the supply is expected to increase in the short and medium terms. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [38][39] - **Eggs**: The short - term egg price is under pressure, and the long - term supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to factors such as chicken culling and environmental policies [40][41] - **Corn**: The supply of new crops is expected to ease the tight supply situation of old crops. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish view and pay attention to the listing rhythm of new crops [42][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter, and the price is under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and hold on dips [44][45] - **Oils**: The negative impact of the Argentine tariff event has ended. The palm oil inventory is expected to slow down its accumulation, and there are supply gaps in domestic rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [47][50]

9月25日，由四川省农业农村厅、四川广播电视台共同发起的《走进标杆企业 解码产业天府》——德康专场活动举行。本次活动深入探访德康(02419)在智能 化养殖、种源育种、屠宰食品加工等全产业链环节的创新实践，服务"世界餐桌"的发展故事。 本次《走进标杆企业》活动在德康的成功举办，不仅是对德康集团现代化实践的肯定，更是对四川畜牧产业迈向万亿级的有力助推。德康将继续以科技为引 擎、以链主为担当、以品质为基石，推动四川从畜牧大省向畜牧强省跨越，为乡村振兴与农业现代化贡献德康力量。 德康集团通过智能化养殖系统、自主可控育种体系、全程可溯源食品安全管理以及中德合作的高标准加工技术，构建起从农场到餐桌的全产业链闭环。在现 场参观环节，嘉宾们深入德康通内斯食品加工车间，亲眼见证了欧盟标准下的生猪屠宰、分割流程，感受到科技为传统畜牧带来的深刻变革。 此外，在活动现场，四川广播电视台为德康集团颁发"产业发展观察点"标牌，标志着德康在智能化、标准化、链主化方面的实践获得高度认可。同时，德康 集团与多家供应链企业完成战略签约，未来将在优质猪肉产品供应、食品安全保障、标准共建、市场拓展等方面深化合作，共同推动川猪产业高质量发展。 活动 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullish and buying on dips; Treasury bonds are recommended to stay on the sidelines [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; Glass is recommended for buying on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for sidelines or buying on dips with short - term trading; Aluminum is recommended for buying on dips after pullbacks; Nickel is recommended for sidelines or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [1][10][11][15][16][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate; Soda ash is recommended for shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract [1][19][21][23][25][26][28][29][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; PTA is expected to oscillate within the range of 4600 - 4950; Apples are expected to oscillate strongly; Jujubes are expected to oscillate weakly [1][34][35][37] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended for shorting on rallies; Corn is expected to oscillate widely; Soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly; Oils are expected to oscillate strongly after a high - level correction [1][38][40][41][42][43] Core Viewpoints The report provides trading strategies for various futures products based on their market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It believes that the macro - financial market has long - term potential, while different sectors in the commodity market have different trends. For example, some products are in a range - bound state, some are affected by seasonal factors, and some are influenced by policy and international trade factors [1][5][7][11][34][38] Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: The market is in a short - term shock, but in the medium - term, it is expected to benefit from the loose US dollar liquidity environment. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market adjusted on Friday, and the technical repair may be over. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and focus on the results of the China - US presidential call [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, with coal prices rising across the board [7] - **Rebar**: The short - term pattern of weak industry and strong macro remains. It is recommended to buy on dips, focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The fundamentals are stable, and it is affected by coal news. It is recommended to buy on dips, focusing on the 1130 - 1160 support [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to remain in high - level shock before the holiday, and it is recommended to trade cautiously on the long side [11] - **Aluminum**: The price is under pressure from alumina, but the demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the long AD short AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The supply - demand side changes little, and it is recommended to short moderately on rallies [15] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended for range trading, with the reference range of 265,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton for the Shanghai Tin 10 contract [16] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended for range trading, with reference ranges of 9800 - 10500 for the Shanghai Silver 12 contract and 820 - 855 for the Shanghai Gold 12 contract [16][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic Soda**: Considering pre - holiday restocking and alumina production expectations, it is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2550 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate, focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [25] - **Rubber**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range arrangement, focusing on the 15600 support [25] - **Urea**: The supply is slightly lower than last year, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to focus on the 1630 - 1650 support for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity for the 1 - 5 spread [26] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: The downstream demand is improving, and the supply pressure is relieved. It is expected to oscillate, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [30] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and go long on the 05 contract due to the expected supply surplus [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply - demand situation is improving, but the new cotton production may increase. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [34] - **PTA**: The cost and supply - demand are in a tug - of - war. It is expected to oscillate within the 4600 - 4950 range [34] - **Apples**: Affected by weather and market conditions, the price is expected to be strong [35] - **Jujubes**: The consumption is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies and focus on the long 05, 07 short 03 arbitrage [38] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the long - term growth rate may slow down. It is recommended to short lightly on rallies for the near - term contracts and be cautious about shorting for the 12 and 01 contracts [40] - **Corn**: It is in the period of new and old crop connection, and the price is under seasonal pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and focus on the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [41] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient in September - October, and the price is under pressure, but it is supported by cost. It is recommended to focus on the 2980 support for the M2601 contract [42] - **Oils**: The domestic oils have a high - level correction, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips and focus on some arbitrage opportunities [43]

Core Insights - The "Weifang Enterprise Linkage and Collective Procurement Win-Win" event was held in Weifang, focusing on promoting supply-demand collaboration in the livestock industry, with nearly 600 enterprise representatives participating and achieving a transaction volume of 1.52 billion yuan [1][3] Industry Overview - Weifang High-tech is recognized as a major agricultural and livestock county, aiming to transform and upgrade its livestock industry, with significant developments in pig and chicken farming, leading to the establishment of two hundred billion-level industrial clusters [3][4] - The chicken industry in Gaomi has an annual breeding capacity of 200 million birds, generating a total industry output value exceeding 14 billion yuan, while the pig industry has a breeding capacity of 1 million heads and a slaughtering capacity of 2 million heads annually [3][4] Project Developments - Gaomi is advancing ten key livestock projects with a total planned investment of 3.558 billion yuan, covering areas such as seed industry incubation, slaughter processing, and dairy product processing [3][4] - Ongoing projects include the construction of a modern smart dairy hall and standardized breeding projects, indicating a strong push towards high-quality development in the livestock sector [4] Collaborative Efforts - The establishment of the "Livestock Industry Chain Party Building Alliance" and partnerships with local universities aim to enhance service integration within the industry chain, fostering innovation and addressing enterprise challenges [4] - The local government is committed to supporting enterprise development and enhancing the competitiveness of the modern livestock industry, contributing to rural revitalization and agricultural modernization [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullishness with a strategy of buying on dips, while treasury bonds suggest maintaining a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading, and glass recommends buying on dips [1][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests waiting or buying on dips for short - term trading; aluminum recommends buying on dips after a pullback; nickel suggests waiting or shorting on rallies; tin and precious metals like gold and silver suggest range trading [1][10][14] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate. Soda ash recommends an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract [1][18][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to oscillate. Apples are expected to be oscillating strongly, and red dates are expected to be oscillating weakly [1][35] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs and eggs recommend shorting on rallies. Corn is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, soybean meal is expected to have a weak oscillation, and oils are expected to be oscillating strongly [1][40][44] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are affected by macro - economic factors such as potential Fed rate cuts, while others are influenced by industry - specific supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and policy expectations [5][10][40] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Driven by technology manufacturing sectors, the index oscillated upward on Wednesday. The market may be looking for a clear main line of prosperity, and a structural market may continue. Fed rate cuts in September may create favorable conditions for domestic monetary easing, and the positive spiral of index profit - making effect and incremental funds is still in operation [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: After recent continuous recoveries, key - term yields are approaching important resistance levels. With the end of the tax - payment period, the return of loose liquidity, and the approaching end of institutional balance - sheet adjustment at the end of the quarter, the bond - market inflection point may be approaching, but there may still be fluctuations near the important resistance level [5] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a "Golden September" in the coal industry. Coal prices are rising across the board, and the procurement rhythm of some enterprises has accelerated [8] - **Rebar**: On Wednesday, rebar futures prices oscillated. The anti - involution expectation has resurfaced, and the black sentiment is strong. Fundamentally, the apparent demand, production, and inventory have changed. The futures price is near the electric - furnace valley - electricity cost, with a low static valuation. It is recommended to buy on dips, focusing on the support level of 3000 - 3100 for the RB2601 contract [8] - **Glass**: Supply - side production capacity has remained stable, and inventories have decreased. Demand has improved, and the market sentiment has warmed up. In the traditional peak season, there are positive expectations, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 1210 - 1220 for the 01 contract and buy on dips [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price has risen in the range this week. The Fed's rate - cut expectation is strong, which is beneficial to the copper price. Domestically, demand has increased in the peak season, and the supply is expected to tighten. Although there are concerns about high prices in the market, the copper price is expected to remain strong, and the Shanghai copper main contract may test the 82500 mark [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite production and transportation. Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities have changed. Demand has entered the peak - season rhythm, but inventories have continued to accumulate. It is recommended to consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and shorting AL [11] - **Nickel**: The uncertainty of nickel ore has increased, but the bottom support is still strong. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron is strong. Stainless - steel demand is expected to increase in the peak season, and the price of nickel sulfate is rising. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [14] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in the off - season is weak. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to conduct range trading, focusing on the 260,000 - 278,000 yuan/ton range for the Shanghai tin 10 - contract [14][15] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: The market's expectation of multiple rate cuts within the year has increased, and the prices of precious metals have continued to rebound. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the Shanghai silver 10 - contract in the 9700 - 10500 range and the Shanghai gold 10 - contract in the 815 - 855 range [15][16] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low - profit level, supply is high, and demand is affected by the real - estate market and exports. The inventory is high, and the overall supply - demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [18][19] - **Caustic Soda**: The macro - economic outlook is positive, supply inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and demand is expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2550 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: The cost - profit situation is affected by factors such as crude - oil supply - demand and pure - benzene production. The port inventory is sufficient, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate, focusing on the 7000 - 7300 range [23] - **Rubber**: The overseas raw - material price is high, and the inventory has continued to decline. The macro - guidance has intensified, and the spot - market trading sentiment has weakened. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range consolidation, focusing on the 15600 support level [24][25] - **Urea**: The market's production and sales have weakened, and the price has continued to decline. The supply - side start - up rate has decreased, and the demand is scattered. The inventory has increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 for the 01 contract and the positive - arbitrage opportunity for the 1 - 5 spread [26][27][29] - **Methanol**: The supply has remained stable, and the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry has decreased. The inventory has changed. It is expected to have a weak oscillation, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [29] - **Polyolefins**: With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak - consumption season, the downstream start - up rate has continued to improve, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to oscillate, with the LL main contract focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and the PP focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has improved, and manufacturers' shipments have been smooth. However, the production has increased, and there is a surplus in theory. It is recommended to conduct an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has improved, and the macro - environment has become better. However, the expected increase in new - cotton production may put pressure on prices in the future. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [35] - **PTA**: After the end of the US traditional fuel - consumption peak season, the demand has weakened, and the international oil price has fallen. The cost and supply - demand are in a reverse - driving situation, and the PTA has accumulated inventory. Due to planned maintenance, the supply - demand pressure is expected to decrease [36] - **Apples**: The early - maturing Fuji in the west is coming to an end, and the quality of the remaining goods has differentiated. The red - general situation in Shandong has some problems, and the inventory - Fuji trading has slowed down. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [36] - **Red Dates**: Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugar - increasing stage. The current consumption is weak, and the price is under pressure after reaching a high level. It is expected to be oscillating weakly [38] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: On September 18, the pig price continued to decline. The supply in September has continued to increase, and the demand growth is slow. The state may start purchasing and reserve - rotation policies, and there is still pressure - holding and reluctance to sell. In the long - term, the supply before May next year is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 and 01 contracts and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of going long on the 05 and 07 contracts and shorting the 03 contract [40] - **Eggs**: As the egg price rebounds to a relatively high level, the cold - storage eggs are being released, and the stocking demand is coming to an end. In the long - term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate is expected to slow down. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month 10 and 11 contracts or hold the 11 put options, and be cautious about shorting the 12 and 01 contracts in the short - term [41] - **Corn**: It is currently the transitional period between old and new crops. The trade inventory is not high, and the market is waiting for new - crop listings. The new - crop opening price is higher year - on - year, and the price is seasonally under pressure. In the long - term, the corn planting is stable, and the cost support has shifted down. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse - arbitrage [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean price is expected to fluctuate around 1030 cents per bushel. Domestically, the arrival of soybeans from September to October is abundant, and the price is under pressure due to state - reserve sales, but there is cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2980 support level of the M2601 contract [44] - **Oils**: The prices of oils have corrected from high levels. The production of Malaysian palm oil in September has decreased, and the export data is conflicting. The US soybean production and supply - demand situation is complex, and the domestic rapeseed oil supply is facing uncertainties. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the positive - arbitrage of the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 contract spread [46][51]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "Yue Bing Gobi Rich Agriculture" live e-commerce event aims to promote high-quality agricultural products from the Third Division of Tumushuke City, leveraging digital economy trends to enhance sales channels and brand influence [2][7][8]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event titled "Xinjiang Products Southbound, Guangdong Products Northbound" will commence on September 22, 2025, and will last for two months [3][4]. - It is organized by the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Commerce Bureau and aims to utilize live streaming to boost the sales of local agricultural products [6][7]. Group 2: Objectives and Benefits - The initiative seeks to broaden the market reach of high-quality agricultural products, increase local farmers' income, and deepen collaboration between Guangdong and Xinjiang [8][36]. - The event will feature well-known influencers to create immersive live streaming experiences, showcasing the entire production process of featured products [9][10][11]. Group 3: Agricultural Advantages - Tumushuke City benefits from unique climatic conditions, with an average of nearly 2800 hours of sunlight per year and significant temperature variations, which contribute to the high quality of its agricultural products [20][21]. - The region has developed a robust agricultural industry focusing on specialty products such as red dates, nuts, and unique melons [24][25]. Group 4: E-commerce Development - The Third Division has actively embraced e-commerce opportunities, establishing an e-commerce incubation park and attracting over 80 enterprises [28][29]. - Collaborations with platforms like Douyin have led to the training of over 300 e-commerce professionals, enhancing local capabilities in digital sales [30][31]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The series of events will serve as a platform to showcase the achievements of the local agricultural industry and promote digital transformation among local businesses and farmers [35][36].

Core Viewpoint - A new company named Qinghai Qinggan Chuan Land Port Base Ecological Technology Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 500,000 RMB, focusing on various agricultural and food-related services [1] Company Overview - The legal representative of the company is Liu Xinyu [1] - The registered capital of the company is 500,000 RMB [1] Business Scope - The company’s business activities include livestock sales, poultry acquisition, retail of edible agricultural products, wholesale and retail of fresh meat, and internet sales of pre-packaged food [1] - Additional services include catering management, personal internet live streaming, general cargo warehousing (excluding hazardous chemicals), and primary processing of agricultural products [1] - The company is also involved in the production, sales, processing, transportation, storage, and other related services of agricultural products [1] - Other activities include the purchase and sale of traditional Chinese medicine (excluding Chinese medicine pieces), sales of agricultural by-products, vegetable planting (excluding rare and precious varieties), grass planting, and flower planting [1] Licensing and Permits - The company is authorized to engage in various licensed activities such as livestock breeding, food management, food production, grain processing, and accommodation services [1] - Specific projects require approval from relevant authorities before operations can commence [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; hold a wait-and-see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar; recommended to buy on dips for glass [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Hold a wait-and-see attitude or buy on dips for copper; recommended to buy on dips after pullbacks for aluminum; recommended to hold a wait-and-see attitude or sell on rallies for nickel; adopt range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][11][14][15][17][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, urea, and methanol are expected to trade in a range; recommended to conduct an arbitrage strategy of shorting the January contract and going long on the May contract for soda ash; rubber is expected to trade with a bullish bias; polyolefins are expected to trade in a wide range [1][19][20][22][23][25][26][28][30][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton, cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to trade in a range; apples are expected to trade with a bullish bias; jujubes are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][33][34][35][35] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Recommended to sell on rallies for live pigs and eggs; corn is expected to trade in a range; soybean meal is expected to trade in a range; oils and fats are expected to trade with a bullish bias [1][37][38][39][42][44][50] Core Views - The market is currently in a state of structural adjustment, with different sectors showing varying trends. Some sectors are supported by positive factors such as improved macro liquidity and strong demand expectations, while others face challenges such as oversupply and weak demand [5][7][8][10][11][12][14][15][16][17][18][20][22][23][25][26][28][30][32][33][34][35][37][38][39][42][44][50] - The Fed's interest rate decision and macro policies will have a significant impact on the market. The market has strong expectations for a Fed rate cut in September, which will create favorable conditions for domestic monetary easing and support the prices of some assets [5][10][11][12][14][15][16][17][18][20][22][23][25][26][28][30][32][33][34][35][37][38][39][42][44][50] - Investors should pay attention to the supply and demand fundamentals, cost factors, and policy changes of different sectors and adjust their investment strategies accordingly [5][7][8][10][11][12][14][15][16][17][18][20][22][23][25][26][28][30][32][33][34][35][37][38][39][42][44][50] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The market may continue to experience a structural adjustment in the near term, with a search for a clear leading sector. The bull market logic driven by liquidity remains intact, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see attitude. Although the central bank's bond purchase operations may have an impact on the market, the market reaction is expected to be more of a phased and impulse-like nature [5][6] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking Coal**: The price increase of pithead coal has slowed down, and the market is in a state of shock. It is recommended to wait for a clear driving factor [7] - **Rebar**: The price of rebar futures has continued to strengthen, but the supply and demand fundamentals are still weak. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a focus on the support level of 3000 - 3100 for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The supply of glass has remained stable, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to buy on dips for the January contract, with a focus on the arbitrage opportunity between soda ash and glass [8] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price of copper has shown a strong upward trend in the near term, supported by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the improvement in domestic demand. It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see attitude or buy on dips, with a focus on the 82500 resistance level for the Shanghai copper main contract [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The supply of aluminum has increased slightly, and the demand has entered the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a focus on the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and shorting AL [12] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel is expected to increase, but the price is supported by the bottom. It is recommended to sell on rallies moderately in the short term, with a focus on the impact of the macro environment on the price [15][16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is tight, and the demand is expected to recover. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 26 - 27.8 million yuan/ton range for the Shanghai tin 10 contract [17] - **Silver and Gold**: The prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the weakening of the US dollar. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 9700 - 10500 range for the Shanghai silver 10 contract and the 815 - 855 range for the Shanghai gold 10 contract [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply of PVC is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 4850 - 5050 range for the January contract [19][20] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply of caustic soda has increased slightly, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 2550 - 2650 range for the January contract [21][22] - **Styrene**: The supply of styrene is sufficient, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 7000 - 7300 range [23][24] - **Rubber**: The supply of rubber is stable, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 15600 support level [24][25] - **Urea**: The supply of urea is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 1630 - 1650 support level for the January contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity for the 1 - 5 spread [26][27][28] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol has remained stable, and the demand has decreased. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 2330 - 2450 range for the January contract [28] - **Polyolefins**: The supply of polyolefins has decreased slightly, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 7200 - 7500 range for the L2601 contract and the 6900 - 7200 range for the PP2601 contract [30] - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct an arbitrage strategy of shorting the January contract and going long on the May contract [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply and demand of cotton have improved, but the new cotton production is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33] - **PTA**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the price of oil has weakened. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 4600 - 4950 range [34][35] - **Apples**: The price of apples has shown a strong upward trend, supported by the high price of early-maturing apples and the positive procurement sentiment of merchants. It is recommended to pay attention to the development of the market [35] - **Jujubes**: The consumption of jujubes is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to conduct range trading with a bearish bias [36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: The supply of live pigs is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to sell on rallies, with a focus on the 13700 - 14000 resistance level for the November contract and the 14000 - 14300 resistance level for the January contract. Also, pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of going long on the May contract and shorting the March contract [37][38] - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rallies for the near-term contracts (October and November) or hold put options for the November contract. It is recommended to be cautious when shorting the December and January contracts, with a focus on the range trading [38] - **Corn**: The supply of corn is sufficient, and the price is under pressure during the listing period. It is recommended to sell on rallies for the November contract, with a focus on the 2220 - 2250 resistance level. Also, pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [39][40][41] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose in the near term, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3030 support level for the M2601 contract, with a focus on the impact of the US - China trade relationship and the procurement of ships after October on the price [42][43][44] - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats are expected to be strong in the near term, supported by factors such as the reduction in palm oil production in Malaysia and the improvement in demand. It is recommended to buy on dips or purchase call options, with a focus on the 8550, 9700, and 10300 resistance levels for the January contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil respectively. Also, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity for the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 contract spread [44][45][46][47][48][50]