2026.02.05 本文字数：3147，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 |第一财经 后歆桐 ChatGPT三年前爆红以来，人工智能（AI）引领的牛市和抛售潮层出不穷，但均无法与本周席卷美国股 市和信贷市场的暴跌相提并论。 一方面，本周抛售速度之快、范围之广令市场震惊。软件即服务（SaaS）类股首当其冲。标普500软件 和服务指数截至周三连续六个交易日下跌，自1月28日以来市值蒸发约8300亿美元。另一方面，与以往 不同，此次暴跌并非由对AI泡沫的担忧引发，而是由对AI即将取代众多企业商业模式的担忧引发。更 令投资者不安的是，长期以来被视为AI热潮主要受益者的公司也开始显露疲态。Alphabet在财报中表 示，其在AI方面的资本支出将高于预期，Arm Holdings发布的营收预测也低于预期。两家公司的股票在 盘后交易中均下跌。 市场仍在讨论本轮抛售是否反应过度，以及谁将成为AI投资的新赢家和输家。 宏利投资管理（Manulife Investment Management）股票与多元资产首席投资官兼高级投资组合经理索夫 特（Nathan W.Thooft）稍早接受一财记者专访时就已预言了AI投资范式的转换。在他看 ...

2026.02. 05 本文字数：3147，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 后歆桐 ChatGPT三年前爆红以来，人工智能（AI）引领的牛市和抛售潮层出不穷，但均无法与本周席卷美国股市和信贷市场的暴跌相提并论。 一方面，本周抛售速度之快、范围之广令市场震惊。软件即服务（SaaS）类股首当其冲。标普500软件和服务指数截至周三连续六个交易日下跌，自1 月28日以来市值蒸发约8300亿美元。另一方面，与以往不同，此次暴跌并非由对AI泡沫的担忧引发，而是由对AI即将取代众多企业商业模式的担忧引 发。更令投资者不安的是，长期以来被视为AI热潮主要受益者的公司也开始显露疲态。Alphabet在财报中表示，其在AI方面的资本支出将高于预期， Arm Holdings发布的营收预测也低于预期。两家公司的股票在盘后交易中均下跌。 市场仍在讨论本轮抛售是否反应过度，以及谁将成为AI投资的新赢家和输家。 宏利投资管理（Manulife Investment Management）股票与多元资产首席投资官兼高级投资组合经理索夫特（Nathan W.Thooft）稍早接受一财记者 专访时就已预言了AI投资范式的转换。在他看 ...

自2022年年中以来，动量交易员曾以足以让沃伦·巴菲特感到汗颜的夏普比率统治着市场。然而周三， 这一切几乎遭遇了全线崩盘——他们蒙受了载入史册的损失。 动量交易简单说来就是"买入最近涨得最好的，卖出涨得最差的"。而根据业内的统计，高盛的"高贝 塔"或无约束动量组合(GSPRHIMO)刚刚创下了自2022年以来表现最糟糕的一天，超过了去年1月 Deepseek风暴之后的AI抛售潮。高贝塔股通俗而言就是指那些波动比大盘更剧烈的股票。 这印证了高盛分析师Lee Coppersmith在上周末文章中的发现，即美股表面平静之下正波涛汹涌。统计 显示，标普500指数成分股平均的1周实际波动率，与整体标普500指数波动率之比在上周四刚刚达到 6.88——处于2023年以来的第99个百分位。 换句话说，标普500指数成分股的平均波动幅度大约是大盘指数的7倍，这就是为什么近几个交易日部分 个股的异动显得异常尖锐，即便标普500指数表面相对平滑的行情掩盖了底层波动的剧烈程度。 市场发生了什么？ 如果说，周二市场的跌幅源于软件股因人工智能颠覆风险引发的"投降式"抛售，那么周三的疲软则更集 中于基本面因素与仓位调整，使得大盘指数的变 ...

The BSE Sensex slipped as much as 568 points or 0.6% at 83,250, while the Nifty 50 declined 173 points, or 0.6%, to the day's low of 25,603. Here are 5 factors behind the fall on February 5. 1.) Metal selloffMetal stocks were among the top losers, with the sectoral index falling 1.5% as global metal prices declined. The drop came amid a stronger dollar, which made commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. In today’s session, metal majors such as Vedanta, Hindustan Copper, NALCO, 2.) Profi ...

Core Insights - Lear Corporation reported a strong performance in 2025, achieving $23.3 billion in revenue and $1.1 billion in core operating earnings, marking a 5% increase in fourth-quarter revenue and the fifth consecutive year of adjusted EPS growth [3][4][7] Financial Performance - The company generated $527 million in free cash flow and returned nearly $500 million to shareholders, including $325 million in share repurchases, exceeding its initial target of $250 million [2][7] - For 2026, Lear guided revenue between $23.2 billion and $24.0 billion, with core operating earnings projected at $1.03 billion to $1.2 billion, indicating about 2% growth at the midpoint [5][14] Business Development - Lear secured significant new business awards, including its largest-ever seating contract for a major U.S. truck program and multiple contracts in China, which are expected to support growth in 2026 [6][8][9] - The company reported over $1.4 billion in E-Systems business awards, its strongest performance in over a decade [9] Operational Efficiency - Lear emphasized operational execution, achieving $195 million in net operating performance, with benefits of 60 basis points in Seating and 110 basis points in E-Systems [1] - The company implemented automation and digital transformation initiatives, generating $70 million in savings in 2025 [12] Segment Performance - In the fourth quarter, Seating revenue was $4.4 billion, up 5%, while E-Systems revenue was $1.6 billion, up 3% [13][16] - For the full year, Seating adjusted operating margins were 6.4%, and E-Systems adjusted operating margins were 4.9% [13] Future Outlook - Lear's outlook for 2026 assumes a slight decline in global industry production and includes expected restructuring costs of approximately $175 million and capital spending of about $660 million [15] - The company aims to continue its focus on shareholder returns with planned share repurchases exceeding $300 million in 2026 [17]

RT Carole Cadwalladr (@carolecadwalla)NEW: The Mandelson-Epstein scandal is also the Mandelson-Palantir scandal.MP @alexburghart asks why Keir Starmer’s visit to Palantir’s office in Washington - arranged by Mandelson while his firm repped Palantir - was kept off books.1/https://t.co/nvUnz513k8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The software industry is currently experiencing a significant downturn, particularly in the U.S. software sector, which is facing intense selling pressure and is expected to continue in this painful state for some time [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Performance - The release of AI Agent products like Anthropic Claude Cowork has heightened concerns about the U.S. software sector, leading to a shift in market sentiment from "AI empowering software" to "AI replacing software" [1] - Palantir Technologies has been notably affected, with its stock dropping 11.62% despite reporting earnings above Wall Street expectations [2] - The overall sentiment in the market has evolved into an irrational sell-off, exacerbated by a lack of standout performance in quarterly reports from major companies like Microsoft and Service Now [1] Group 2: AI Technology and Limitations - Current Large Language Models (LLMs) are still seen as operating at a probabilistic level and have not yet reached the core of human cognition, with significant limitations in areas such as hallucination, multimodal alignment, and reasoning capabilities [4] - Despite an increasing number of companies mentioning AI in their earnings reports, the actual application of AI remains limited to simpler tasks like coding and customer service, with challenges in more complex scenarios [4] - Research from Salesforce indicates that while AI Agents perform well in benchmark tests, their accuracy in real-world applications is often unsatisfactory, particularly as task complexity increases [4] Group 3: Strategic Responses and Future Outlook - In response to the GenAI technology wave, software companies may need to adopt aggressive M&A strategies, although historical market sentiment has been negative towards M&A in the software sector due to concerns over internal growth and integration risks [4] - The analysis suggests that while the macroeconomic environment in the U.S. is improving and AI products are gradually being implemented, the performance of U.S. software companies is expected to improve gradually, but the growth trajectory may not be ideal [4]

Market Overview - The Nifty and Sensex indices traded lower, ending a three-day rally as investors took profits at elevated levels, with the BSE Sensex dropping over 400 points to a low of 83,369 and the Nifty 50 declining over 100 points to slip below 25,650 [15] - The Nifty Smallcap 100 index fell by 1%, while the Midcap 100 index was down 0.5% [15] Sector Performance - Metal and pharma stocks were the worst performers, sliding 2% and 0.7% respectively [15] - IT stocks experienced steep declines due to a selloff in U.S. tech, driven by concerns over new automation tools from Anthropic that could disrupt outsourced IT services and pressure margins for Indian IT companies [2][15] Investment Insights - VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, indicated that the Nifty is in a consolidation phase with limited index movement but significant sector divergence [2] - The long-term impact of the recent selloff in IT stocks remains uncertain [2] - India's growth outlook is strong, supported by a growth-focused Budget and trade agreements with the EU and the U.S., which should bolster domestic consumption trends [5][15] Foreign Institutional Investment - Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers of Rs 5,236 crore, marking the highest single-day inflow since October 28, following the India–US trade deal that alleviated market concerns [7][15] - Foreign investors extended their buying streak to two days, purchasing Rs 30 crore on February 4, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought nearly Rs 250 crore [7][15] - A key trigger to monitor is the flow of foreign institutional investors; if selling slows and marginal buying increases, broader market strength could follow [6]

Core Viewpoint - The software sector is experiencing a significant downturn, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF down 22% year-to-date due to investor fears that AI innovations could disrupt established software-as-a-service (SaaS) models [2] Group 1: Market Reaction to AI Innovations - The market's response to AI fears is not unprecedented, as the first sell-off occurred shortly after the launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT [3] - Alphabet recognized the disruptive potential of ChatGPT, leading to a "code red" response and the introduction of its own chatbot, Bard, which initially faced issues that caused Alphabet's stock to drop by 8% in one session [4][5] - Despite initial setbacks, Alphabet regrouped and launched Gemini, a new large language model (LLM), which has been perceived as superior to ChatGPT's latest model, contributing to a resurgence in its stock price [8] Group 2: Investment Insights - Historical trends suggest that buying stocks during a dip, especially when the decline is not based on fundamental changes, can be beneficial, as seen with Alphabet's stock performance [9] - The threat posed by new technologies is often overstated, and it typically takes time for industries to undergo significant disruption and for consumer behavior to change [9] - A sector-wide sell-off exceeding 20% driven by AI fears may be excessive, indicating potential investment opportunities in undervalued software stocks [10]

We came across a bullish thesis on NVIDIA Corporation on Investment Ideas by Antonio’s Substack by Antonio Linares. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on NVDA. NVIDIA Corporation's share was trading at $191.52 as of January 28th. NVDA’s trailing and forward P/E were 46.66 and 24.63, respectively according to Yahoo Finance. NVIDIA (NVDA)'s Latest AI GPUs Sustain Analyst Optimism NVIDIA Corporation, a computing infrastructure company, provides graphics and compute, and networking solution ...