1. 2月6日(周五)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货均转涨。截至发稿，纳指期货现涨0.51%，标普500指数期货涨0.52%，道指期货涨0.60%，此 前纳指期货一度跌超1.6%。 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油涨1.39%，报71.99美元/桶。布伦特原油涨1.34%，报75.66美元/桶。 | ■ WTI原油 | 2026年3月 | 63.02 | 64.58 | 62.32 | -0.27 | -0.43% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 謡 伦敦布伦特原油 | 2026年4月 | 67.37 | 68.82 | 66.87 | -0.18 | -0.27% | 市场消息 今夜无非农，下周"双炸弹"。受此前美国政府停摆影响，美国1月非农报告推迟至2月11日(下周三)21:30公布，1月CPI报告推迟至2月13日 (下周五)21:30公布。双重重磅数据或将引发新一轮市场动荡。 美股常胜策略突然失效!动量交易遭遇历史性回撤：资金从科技撤离，价值股成新宠。多年来，在股市中追涨动量一直是常胜策略，然而 这一策略在过去一周却突然失效。此次动量策略的崩塌，是美 ...

多年来，在股市中追涨动量一直是常胜策略，然而这一策略在过去一周却突然失效。 作为一种"追涨杀跌"的投资策略，动量交易在周三遭遇了2020年疫情后第二大单日跌幅，跌幅甚至超过 去年的DeepSeek引发的抛售潮以及4月关税风波引发的下跌。高盛编制的高贝塔动量股组合数据显示， 此次下跌抹去了存储芯片、金属和稀土矿开采以及科技应用开发类企业今年以来的全部涨幅。 此次动量策略的崩塌，是美股大盘年内走弱引发的全面抛售潮的一部分，直接诱因则是软件板块的剧烈 震荡——市场担忧人工智能(AI)应用可能对部分企业形成替代效应，导致该板块跌幅超20%。不过在本 轮抛售中，仍有板块逆势走强，这也为尚未放弃牛市的投资者带来了慰藉。 投资者指出，服装零售、旅游企业及家居用品制造商股价持续走高，此前表现低迷的价值股也迎来资金 大幅流入。市场正出现一轮广泛的风格切换，资金从科技板块撤离，涌入与经济复苏联动性更强的领 域。瑞银编制的价值股多空策略投资篮子自上周以来涨幅已达20%，巴克莱编制的价值股相对成长股因 子指数，在周四创下历史单日最大超额收益之一。 从资金持仓来看，此次抛售发生在动量交易迎来历史上最火热的阶段之后。高盛交易部门数据显示 ...

后市上，短线或有技术性反抽，但摩根士丹利更倾向于"反弹卖出"：原因在于去杠杆/再平衡链条未必结束，同时散户资金在报税季前继续偏弱，令下一轮 抛压更难被吸收；历史统计也显示，类似强度的动量单日暴跌后，1–2个月股价表现大概率下跌。 动量共识交易在2月5日遭遇"崩塌式"反转，摩根士丹利认为，拥挤多头集中减仓叠加杠杆ETF再平衡的被动卖盘，把跌幅快速放大，而本应在下跌中提供缓 冲的散户买盘明显缺位，导致边际承接不足。 这次下跌呈现"指数相对克制、盘面内部剧烈"的结构性特征：抛压高度集中在纳指、科技与半导体等此前领涨且仓位拥挤的高贝塔主题（AI、国家安全、比 特币矿股等）。相对而言，周期、化工、银行等板块表现更强，出现明显轮动。 指数波动相对克制，但内部板块剧烈波动 本轮下跌的显著特征是"指数与内部分离"。高盛指出，盘中一度接近四分之三的股票跑赢标普500，即便指数仍在走低，反映痛点集中在少数拥挤的动量交 易（认为趋势会延续，即买入上涨资产，卖出下跌资产）上。 高盛交易端将其归因于波动抬升与技术面偏离下的反转，而非单一基本面"导火索"。 摩根士丹利交易员Bryson Williams也在收盘观点中指出，当日更像是一次 ...

Core Viewpoint - Momentum traders experienced significant losses, marking one of the worst days since mid-2022, primarily driven by a sell-off in high-beta stocks and a shift in market dynamics [1][6][19]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The sell-off on Wednesday was attributed to fundamental factors and position adjustments, revealing underlying volatility despite a seemingly stable S&P 500 index [3][5]. - The average volatility of S&P 500 constituents was approximately seven times that of the index itself, indicating sharp movements in individual stocks [5]. - Goldman Sachs noted that the sell-off was largely driven by the underperformance of long positions in high-beta stocks, which had previously been market leaders [6][10]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The market saw a reversal from crowded themes such as AI and high-beta stocks, with early-cycle stocks and defensive sectors performing well [8][10]. - High-performing sectors like memory chips and non-profitable tech stocks experienced significant pullbacks, while negative momentum themes rebounded [15][19]. - The sell-off was characterized by extreme factor reversals, with momentum factors facing their worst drawdown in over three years [8][19]. Group 3: Trading Behavior - The market's behavior on Wednesday was marked by a disconnection between index performance and individual stock movements, with nearly three-quarters of stocks outperforming the S&P 500 [14]. - Retail participation was notably absent during the sell-off, contrasting with aggressive buying during previous rebounds [14]. - The pressure from leveraged ETFs was significant, with an estimated $18 billion in selling pressure on that day, particularly affecting tech and semiconductor stocks [12][19]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Historical patterns suggest that such momentum stock pullbacks can present mid-term buying opportunities, although caution is advised due to potential further downside risks [17][19]. - Analysts from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs agree that the current market conditions may lead to further adjustments, but they also see potential for short-term rebounds [17][19].

Core Viewpoint - Momentum consensus trading experienced a "collapse-like" reversal on February 5, driven by concentrated long position liquidation and passive selling from leveraged ETFs, leading to a rapid amplification of declines, with a notable absence of retail buying support [1][4][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent decline exhibited a structural characteristic of "index relative restraint, internal market volatility," with selling pressure concentrated in the Nasdaq, technology, and semiconductor sectors, which had previously led the market [1][4] - Approximately 75% of stocks outperformed the S&P 500 during the decline, indicating that the pain was concentrated in a few crowded momentum trades rather than a broad market downturn [2] - The momentum index MSZZMOMO fell about 7.7% in a single day, marking an extreme volatility event, primarily driven by long positions [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - Selling pressure was heavily focused on previously leading sectors such as AI, national security, and Bitcoin mining stocks, while cyclical, chemical, and banking sectors showed relative strength, indicating a rotation away from high-beta themes [4][5] - The leveraged ETF rebalancing contributed approximately $18 billion in selling pressure, particularly affecting the Nasdaq and technology sectors, with significant impacts on several popular stocks [5] Group 3: Retail Investor Behavior - Retail buying was notably absent, with net buying intensity at its lowest in the past year, primarily occurring during market rebound periods [6][7] - The lack of retail participation has directly suppressed momentum factors, as the stocks favored by retail investors overlap significantly with those used in momentum strategies [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term technical rebounds may occur, but Morgan Stanley suggests a "sell on the rebound" strategy due to ongoing deleveraging and weak retail demand ahead of the tax season, which could exacerbate future selling pressure [1][10][13] - Historical data indicates that after significant declines in the momentum index, stock performance tends to be negative in the following 1-2 months, with a median decline of approximately 22% [10]

自2022年年中以来，动量交易员曾以足以让沃伦·巴菲特感到汗颜的夏普比率统治着市场。然而周三， 这一切几乎遭遇了全线崩盘——他们蒙受了载入史册的损失。 动量交易简单说来就是"买入最近涨得最好的，卖出涨得最差的"。而根据业内的统计，高盛的"高贝 塔"或无约束动量组合(GSPRHIMO)刚刚创下了自2022年以来表现最糟糕的一天，超过了去年1月 Deepseek风暴之后的AI抛售潮。高贝塔股通俗而言就是指那些波动比大盘更剧烈的股票。 这印证了高盛分析师Lee Coppersmith在上周末文章中的发现，即美股表面平静之下正波涛汹涌。统计 显示，标普500指数成分股平均的1周实际波动率，与整体标普500指数波动率之比在上周四刚刚达到 6.88——处于2023年以来的第99个百分位。 换句话说，标普500指数成分股的平均波动幅度大约是大盘指数的7倍，这就是为什么近几个交易日部分 个股的异动显得异常尖锐，即便标普500指数表面相对平滑的行情掩盖了底层波动的剧烈程度。 市场发生了什么？ 如果说，周二市场的跌幅源于软件股因人工智能颠覆风险引发的"投降式"抛售，那么周三的疲软则更集 中于基本面因素与仓位调整，使得大盘指数的变 ...

但短期资金把行情透支了。高盛的判断是，短期投机资金和散户实物需求把交易挤得太满，波动率一飙升就触发止损和强平，现在交易员普遍在减仓、降杠 杆，更多在玩波动率而不是单边方向。 华尔街对黄金最近这轮暴涨暴跌的看法基本一致：支撑金价的底层逻辑还在——央行在买，去美元化/通胀预期没消失，宏观政策的不确定性。 分歧在于这轮调整会跌多深、跌多久：高盛大宗商品研究那边还是看2026年底到5400美元，而且觉得往上走的概率更大；Infrastructure Capital的Jay Hatfield 直接说这行情早就脱离基本面，就是动量交易。 研究端同时强调，上行风险还是偏多，因为私人部门继续配置黄金"非常可能"。理由是全球宏观政策不确定性在2026年很难完全解决，而且黄金在私人投资 组合中的占比还是偏低。 高盛大宗商品研究部的STRUYVEN：基于央行购金、美联储降息、私人部门不再增配这三个假设，维持2026年12月金价5400美元。 "我们仍维持2026年12月金价5400美元的预测。该预测基于：1）央行购金维持过去12个月高位（每月60吨）；2）美联储2026年降息两次各25基 点；3）私营部门未进一步多元化配置黄金（即 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dramatic fluctuations in the precious metals market, particularly focusing on the unprecedented drop in silver and gold prices, which were driven by speculative trading and external market influences, including U.S. political developments [4][6][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver prices experienced a historic drop of 26% in one day, marking the largest decline ever recorded, while gold fell by 9%, representing its worst single-day performance in over a decade [4]. - The surge in metal prices prior to the crash was attributed to speculative buying from various investors, including individual traders and large commodity funds, pushing prices to record highs [6][10]. - The trading environment was described as "parabolic" and "frenzied," with significant volatility observed, particularly during Asian trading hours [5][6]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The immediate trigger for the price drop was the announcement of President Trump's intention to nominate Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, which strengthened the U.S. dollar and led to profit-taking among investors [4][13]. - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions contributed to the rising prices of metals, as investors sought alternatives to the U.S. dollar [6][10]. - The trading volume for the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) surged to over $40 billion, making it one of the most actively traded securities globally, compared to its previous daily volume of less than $2 billion [7][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market's recovery may depend on China's demand for metals following the recent sell-off, with traders observing the opening of the Shanghai Futures Exchange for signs of renewed interest [14]. - Despite the recent downturn, there is potential for a rebound as retail investors are expected to enter the market ahead of the Lunar New Year, although there is a cautious sentiment surrounding silver [14]. - New measures announced by several Chinese banks to mitigate risks associated with personal gold accumulation products may impact the broader trends in the global metals market [14].

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with a historic drop in silver and gold prices, largely influenced by market reactions to potential changes in U.S. Federal Reserve leadership and the role of Chinese investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Silver prices plummeted by 26% in less than 20 hours, marking the largest single-day decline in history, while gold fell by 9%, the worst performance in over a decade [1]. - The surge in the U.S. dollar, driven by news of Trump's potential nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Fed chair, is seen as a direct trigger for the market downturn [1]. - Traders are now focusing on the performance of the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange to gauge China's demand for precious metals following the sell-off [1]. Group 2: Trading Environment - The market has been described as "wild" and "untradeable," with significant volatility expected to characterize January 2026 as one of the most tumultuous months in precious metals history [2]. - The sell-off was exacerbated by profit-taking from Chinese retail investors and private equity funds, who had previously driven prices up due to geopolitical tensions and expectations of diminished Fed independence [2]. Group 3: Market Fundamentals - Prior to the crash, signs of overheating were evident, with the price surge driven more by speculative capital from China rather than traditional industrial demand [3]. - Data indicates that while global prices soared, there was a net outflow from silver ETFs outside of China since December, suggesting a disconnect between price movements and fundamental demand [3]. - Analysts have noted that the recent price increases were more reflective of momentum trading rather than fundamental value, leading to expectations of a market correction [3]. Group 4: Physical Market Dynamics - Despite turmoil in the futures market, the Shenzhen Shui Bei market for physical precious metals has remained relatively stable, with no panic selling observed [4][5]. - There has been a slight easing in the tight supply of silver, with more selling than buying, but traditional demand for physical gold remains strong as consumers prepare for the upcoming Spring Festival [5]. Group 5: Regulatory Responses - In response to market volatility, Chinese financial institutions are tightening risk controls, with measures such as increasing minimum investment amounts for gold accumulation and limiting transaction volumes during holidays [6]. - These actions aim to guide investors towards more rational participation and prevent excessive speculation in the precious metals market [6]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The key question remains whether traditional physical demand ahead of the Spring Festival can offset the impact of retreating speculative funds [7]. - The market is at a crossroads, determining whether this unprecedented volatility will subside or if it will lead to a reorganization after adjustments [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent market turmoil highlights the fragility of consensus in a crowded trading environment, where even minor fluctuations can lead to significant volatility, particularly in precious metals following Trump's nomination of Waller as Fed Chair [1]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices plummeted by 10%, erasing $5 trillion in market value over two days, while silver and platinum saw declines of 37% and over 16% respectively [1]. - The market was already showing signs of overcrowding before the drop, with a Bank of America survey indicating that long positions in gold were the most crowded trade globally, with prices exceeding long-term trend lines by 44%, a level not seen since 1980 [4]. - The silver sentiment index reached its highest level since 1998, indicating extreme bullish sentiment [5]. Group 2: Broader Market Implications - The dollar index experienced its largest single-day gain since May, negatively impacting short positions on the dollar, while emerging market stocks underperformed relative to U.S. equities, marking the worst performance since 2022 [3][6]. - The crowded trading environment is evident across multiple markets, with significant leverage accumulating beneath the surface, leading to potential for sharp declines [6]. - The recent volatility in precious metals serves as a warning for other crowded trades, as consensus can often be misleading in extreme market conditions [14]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Strategy - The market's momentum-driven nature raises questions about the viability of contrarian investors, with some, like Rich Weiss, maintaining a position favoring U.S. equities despite recent underperformance against international markets [15]. - Weiss believes that growing profits will enable U.S. companies to outperform their foreign counterparts, despite current trends not aligning with his strategy [16]. - The recent market fluctuations have prompted some investors to reconsider their positions, questioning how much further prices can decline and whether exiting early could mean missing out on future gains [17].