作者：泰勒·德登 2025年10⽉3⽇星期五 - 晚上8:44 股市再次扭转早盘⼩幅下跌的颓势，上涨⾄看似单⽇最⾼纪录。⾼盛交易员奥斯卡·奥斯特伦德 （Oscar Ostlund）称，受"似乎持续⾼涨的⼈⼯智能狂热"推动，市场⼈⽓飙升，⽽对经济放缓（以 及停摆）和"泡沫"的担忧正迅速被"害怕错失良机"的担忧所取代。总⽽⾔之：美联储降息已从投资 者的脑海中消失，⽽动量交易（现在多头是⼈⼯智能）正在升温。 2025/10/6 16:29 ⾼盛客⼾调查发现，⼈⼯智能 FOMO 在年底业绩恐慌中表现超乎寻常 | ZeroHedge ⾼盛客⼾调查发现，⼈⼯智能"害怕错过"情绪在年 底业绩恐慌中飙升 尽管如此，⾼盛实际上发现希望增加多头头⼨的投资者数量有所增加！ 因此，⾼盛重新进⾏了⼀次令⼈痛苦可笑的美国银⾏基⾦经理调查，该调查已成为对⾦融调查所应 代表的⼀切的嘲弄，⽽⾼盛则进⾏了⾃⼰更为准确的客⼾调查，得出了以下发现： 1. 年初⾄今乐观情绪⾼涨：投资者看涨情绪达到2024年12⽉以来的最⾼⽔平。超过⼀半的受访者 看好标普500指数（创下年初⾄今新⾼），40%的受访者预计该指数10⽉份的表现将优于其他主要 股指。总体⽽ ...

1. 10月6日(周一)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.20%，标普500指数期货涨0.32%，纳指期货涨0.70%。 | = US 30 | 46,852.90 | 46,915.50 | 46,782.50 | +94.60 | +0.20% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 500 | 6,737.40 | 6,745.00 | 6,719.40 | +21.60 | +0.32% | | 틀 US Tech 100 | 24,959.80 | 24,979.90 | 24,800.80 | +174.30 | +0.70% | OPEC+ 11月谨慎增产13.7万桶/日，油价小幅走高。当地时间10月5日，OPEC+同意11月小幅增加原油产量，增产幅度为13.7万桶/日。此 举缓解了交易员对超大规模增产的担忧，油价周一开盘走高。截止发稿，WTI原油涨1.22%，报61.62美元/桶。布伦特原油涨1.24%，报 65.33美元/桶。据悉，OPEC+在10月5日的会议后决定将自11月起把原油日产量提高13.7万桶。由于市场对 ...

Group 1 - The month of September saw significant deterioration in various aspects, including the potential government shutdown and bleak employment outlook, yet it marked a historic period for commodities, stocks, and forex markets due to a strong upward betting trend [1] - Gold prices surged by 12%, marking the eighth consecutive increase in nine months, while global stock markets continued their upward trajectory, adding approximately $35 trillion in market capitalization [2] - The proportion of pure long-only actively managed funds outperforming benchmarks has dropped to 22%, potentially leading to the worst performance on record [2] Group 2 - A commodity trading advisor index tracking price trends rose nearly 6% in September, and similar trend-following funds achieved their best monthly performance since 2022 [5] - The consensus has shifted positively, with market confidence bolstered by the expectation that President Trump may retract harsher trade measures, alongside the Federal Reserve's focus shifting from inflation to a weak labor market [5] - The S&P 500 index rose by 3.5% in September and continued to increase by 1% the following week, while the dollar maintained a broader downtrend and gold prices rose for the seventh consecutive week [5] Group 3 - Financial system liquidity has been a significant factor supporting risk assets, with the growth rate of money supply exceeding GDP growth, leading to increased inflows into stock and credit markets [6] - In September, total deposits into U.S. ETFs reached $141 billion, marking the third-highest level on record, indicating a broad liquidity seeking to be deployed across various asset classes [6] - The iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF attracted approximately $2.8 billion in 2025, poised for its best annual inflow since 2018, while a high-beta momentum stock basket surged by 17% last month [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite concerns over a stock market bubble, JPMorgan's trading division expects the upward trend in U.S. stocks to continue, driven by trade agreement progress, positive economic data, and renewed M&A activity [1] - Recent economic indicators show a solid market foundation, with U.S. unemployment claims declining for the sixth consecutive week, highlighting the resilience of the labor market [3] - The Ark Innovation ETF, managed by Cathie Wood, has surged nearly 100% over the past three months, indicating a strong speculative interest in underperforming tech stocks [1] Group 2 - Strategists recommend diversifying investments into large-cap tech stocks, cyclical stocks, and high-beta assets, while using S&P 500 put options and VIX-related products for hedging [4] - Despite warnings of excessive market enthusiasm, strategists believe there are still many favorable factors supporting the current market, with technical and fundamental factors providing sufficient support for bullish sentiment [4] - The market faces risks from tariffs and economic uncertainty, but strategists maintain that the timing of any potential bubble is difficult to predict, and the current enthusiasm may last longer than expected [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's policies on market dynamics, highlighting concerns over growth stagnation and increased trade uncertainty, which have led to a decline in momentum trading and a shift in investor sentiment towards defensive sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has seen a cumulative decline of 0.3% in 2025, underperforming European and Canadian benchmarks, with a weekly drop of 2.5% and a monthly drop of 3% [3]. - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.59% on a recent Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite down 2.78% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.45%, resulting in a collective market cap loss of nearly $550 billion for major tech stocks [2]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Technology, communication, and discretionary consumer sectors are expected to lead the S&P 500 in 2023 and 2024, but are projected to be at the bottom in 2025 due to stock sell-offs [2]. - Defensive sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples are anticipated to outperform in 2025 as investors shift towards safer investments [2]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment has turned extremely bearish, with expectations of stock price declines rising over 20 percentage points to nearly 61% in a recent week [5]. - Retail investors have begun to exit momentum-driven speculative trading, with a significant sell-off of $1.1 billion in stocks occurring in just the first two hours of trading on a recent Monday, marking the largest outflow since March 2020 [5]. Group 4: Technical Indicators - The S&P 500 index has breached critical mid-term CTA liquidation trigger levels, potentially leading to sell-offs of at least $12.6 billion and $58 billion in the coming weeks [6]. - Major stock indices have also broken through key technical support levels, indicating increased market volatility and potential further declines [6].