周三 ，白银、铂金和钯金的价格均下跌超过5%，但市场热情丝毫没有减弱的迹象。 Chanana表示，"2026年的形势依然有利，利率下调、财政和地缘政治局势动荡，这些都是支撑因素。但 仓位似乎已经过高，因此回调可能会很剧烈。" 金价下跌0.6%，至每盎司4311.8美元。彭博美元指数在前一交易日小幅上涨后持稳。白银价格下跌超过 6%，至每盎司71.4美元。 来源：环球市场播报 黄金和白银在2025年最后一个交易日下跌，但两者仍势将创下年度纪录涨幅，成就贵金属的出色之年。 现货黄金跌至每盎司4311美元左右，白银也跌向每盎司70美元。在2025年经历了看似势不可挡的涨势 后，这两种金属在12月剧烈波动，接连触及历史新高，黄金更是创下了自1979年以来的最佳年度表现， 随后随着投资者从过热的涨势中获利了结，金银回吐了部分涨幅。 剧烈的市场波动促使芝商所集团宣布提高贵金属期货保证金要求，这是在一周内第二次上调。此举可能 会抑制部分市场热情，因为这将迫使交易员在交易贵金属时提供更多抵押品。 "2025年最令人惊讶的是，'避险'金属——尤其是白银——是如何转变为动量交易的，"新加坡盛宝银行 首席市场策略师Charu Ch ...

黄金和白银在2025年最后一个交易日下跌，但两者仍势将创下年度纪录涨幅，成就贵金属的出色之年。 现货黄金跌至每盎司4311美元左右，白银也跌向每盎司70美元。在2025年经历了看似势不可挡的涨势 后，这两种金属在12月剧烈波动，接连触及历史新高，黄金更是创下了自1979年以来的最佳年度表现， 随后随着投资者从过热的涨势中获利了结，金银回吐了部分涨幅。 剧烈的市场波动促使芝商所集团宣布提高贵金属期货保证金要求，这是在一周内第二次上调。此举可能 会抑制部分市场热情，因为这将迫使交易员在交易贵金属时提供更多抵押品。 "2025年最令人惊讶的是，'避险'金属——尤其是白银——是如何转变为动量交易的，"新加坡盛宝银行 首席市场策略师Charu Chanana表示。 周三 ，白银、铂金和钯金的价格均下跌超过5%，但市场热情丝毫没有减弱的迹象。 Chanana表示，"2026年的形势依然有利，利率下调、财政和地缘政治局势动荡，这些都是支撑因素。但 仓位似乎已经过高，因此回调可能会很剧烈。" 金价下跌0.6%，至每盎司4311.8美元。彭博美元指数在前一交易日小幅上涨后持稳。白银价格下跌超过 6%，至每盎司71.4美元。 C ...

黄金未来的投资前景如何？该行认为，持有黄金的长期理由并未改变。 智通财经获悉，贝莱德智库发文表示，今年一路走高的金价最近再度迎来历史新高。在美联储降息、央 行购金潮持续、地缘局势紧张的背景下，国际金价继续走强，COMEX黄金一度突破4500美元/盎司。这 也给投资者带来了新的困惑：在金价与股市齐涨的背景下，黄金资产的投资逻辑是否发生了改变？如何 把握黄金的配置机遇？贝莱德指出，黄金似乎已暂时转变为一种可进行动量交易的标的。虽然这样可能 会带来更多的短期波动，但当黄金价格走弱时，可借机适度配置。长期来看，配置黄金的底层逻辑并未 改变。 黄金常被视为避险资产。自2024年秋季开始，黄金持续走强，不到一年时间涨幅已超70%，虽然今年10 月中旬在没有明显利空的情况下金价出现了回调，但现在也已经收复失地。 今年8月底时，贝莱德曾提出了黄金即将面临美股季节性波动的可能性，以及历史上在市场波动加剧时 黄金跑赢美股的情况。但实际情况恰恰相反，除了10月初的一个糟糕的交易日，以VIX指数衡量的美股 季节性的波动并未出现。相反，美股在9月、10月上涨，直到11月初才出现小幅回调。而黄金并没有起 到分散投资的作用，反而趋向于跟随 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment is characterized by a potential unwinding of momentum trades, particularly in AI, and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's actions, which may lead to volatility and adjustments in valuations [1][2][4]. Market Rotation and Economic Outlook - There is a noticeable rotation in the market, with concerns about the Federal Reserve's decisions impacting investor sentiment. Despite this, there remains a pro-risk stance, particularly towards equities [2][4]. - Earnings growth for the MAG 7 is expected to slow from 18% in Q4 of this year to 14% next year, while the broader market (the forgotten 493) is projected to grow from 2% in Q4 to 15% next year, indicating a broadening market [3]. Earnings Projections and Investment Strategy - Earnings for the S&P 500 are anticipated to increase by approximately 13% in 2026 and over 14% in 2027, with technology leading this growth [6]. - Investors are advised to view potential declines as buying opportunities, with historical data suggesting that pullbacks of 5% to 10% typically recover quickly [13]. Asset Allocation and Hedge Funds - There is a recommendation to consider hedge funds as part of a global asset allocation strategy, especially in a slowing economy, as they tend to perform well under such conditions [8]. - The focus on global AI developments is emphasized, particularly in emerging markets, which presents additional investment opportunities [9]. Investment Approach for Retail Investors - Retail investors are encouraged to maintain a long-term perspective, focusing on buying and holding equities rather than engaging in high-risk strategies like margin trading [12]. - It is suggested that investors should rotate into sectors showing relative strength, such as pure value over pure growth within the S&P 500 [14].

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis and construction[1][2][3] - The report primarily focuses on macroeconomic trends, asset allocation strategies, and market outlooks without detailing quantitative models or factors[6][30][7] - No formulas, construction processes, or backtesting results for quantitative models or factors are provided in the report[13][16][20]

Market Overview - Market sentiment is influenced by corporate earnings and trade tensions, with mixed performance in major stock indices [1] - Investors are closely monitoring earnings reports from US and European companies, which may significantly impact market trends [1] - Concerns over corporate earnings, particularly from growth and tech stocks, could exacerbate current market pullbacks [1] Stock Market Performance - As of the report, S&P 500 futures rose nearly 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures increased over 0.3%, while Dow Jones futures fell 0.06% [1][6] - Tesla's pre-market trading showed a decline of over 3%, despite a significant revenue rebound, as profits dropped by 31% [6] - Nokia's stock rose by 9.7% in pre-market trading, while Quantum Computing stocks saw an increase of 13% [6] European Market Trends - European stock indices opened lower but showed recovery, with the UK FTSE 100 index up by 0.93% and Germany's DAX index down by 0.6% [6] - Volvo's stock surged by 29% after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter earnings [6] Commodity Market Movements - Spot gold prices increased by nearly 0.5%, reaching $4,117 per ounce, driven by heightened risk aversion [2][6] - Brent crude oil prices rose over 3.3%, reaching $64.66 per barrel, following US sanctions on Russian oil companies, alleviating concerns over potential supply surplus [5][6] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar index stabilized around 99, while the 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 3.96% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The simultaneous rally of gold and stocks is unusual and may be driven by excessive liquidity in the market, rather than traditional safe-haven dynamics [2][6][12] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Historically, gold and stocks tend to move in opposite directions, but currently, both are rising together, indicating a unique market condition [1][9] - The current market resembles the tech boom of 1999 and the inflationary environment of 1979, with significant liquidity fueling momentum trades across various market segments [2][4] - There is over $1.5 trillion in excess liquidity in money market mutual funds, a remnant of pandemic-era monetary policies [4][15] Group 2: Gold Demand and Investment Trends - Recent demand for gold has shifted towards ETF investments, with the last quarter seeing the highest inflows into gold ETFs ever recorded [3][10] - The increase in gold prices is not solely driven by traditional investors seeking a hedge but rather by retail investors participating in a liquidity-driven speculative frenzy [6][12] - The correlation between gold and stocks may lead to unexpected outcomes if market conditions change, particularly if inflation resurfaces and central banks withdraw liquidity [6][14] Group 3: Future Outlook - If inflation returns and the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, both gold and stocks may decline simultaneously, contrasting with their current upward trend [14][15] - The current market environment is characterized as an "everything rally," where various asset classes are rising together, but this may not be sustainable in the long term [9][15]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish sentiment among investors, with over half of respondents optimistic about the S&P 500 index, marking the highest level of optimism since December 2024 [3]. Core Insights - The "fear of missing out" (FOMO) related to artificial intelligence (AI) is significantly influencing market sentiment, overshadowing concerns about economic slowdown and potential market bubbles [3][12]. - Investors are increasingly focused on AI-related stocks, particularly in infrastructure, while other sub-themes like robotics and quantum computing have not garnered much attention yet [9]. - The momentum index is expected to outperform the S&P 500 by year-end, reflecting the growing integration of AI trading strategies [10]. - Despite a mixed economic outlook, with excitement around AI and a soft labor market, investors are content with the prospect of only one more rate cut this year [12]. - The expectation of a large-scale rate cut cycle has diminished, leading to a shift in focus towards AI-driven market rebounds [14]. - Discussions around high valuations and potential market bubbles are emerging as investors prepare to re-enter the stock market, driven by FOMO sentiment [16]. Summary by Sections - **Investor Sentiment**: Optimism among investors has reached a peak, with a significant portion expecting strong performance from the S&P 500 [3]. - **AI Focus**: The report highlights a strong interest in AI stocks, particularly in infrastructure, while other areas remain less prioritized [9]. - **Momentum Trading**: There is a consensus that momentum trading will outperform traditional indices, indicating a shift towards AI-related strategies [10]. - **Economic Outlook**: Investors are satisfied with the current economic conditions, anticipating only minor adjustments in interest rates [12]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report notes a shift away from expectations of aggressive rate cuts, favoring AI-driven market movements instead [14]. - **Valuation Concerns**: As the market heats up, discussions about high valuations and potential bubbles are becoming more prevalent among investors [16].

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.20%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.32%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.70% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX up by 0.29%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.15%, while France's CAC40 down by 1.20% and the Euro Stoxx 50 down by 0.12% [2][3] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil increased by 1.22%, reaching $61.62 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 1.24% to $65.33 per barrel [3][4] Economic and Political Developments - OPEC+ agreed to a cautious increase in oil production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, alleviating concerns over excessive production [6] - France's political crisis intensified as Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned shortly after a cabinet reshuffle, leading to increased yields on French government bonds and widening the spread with German bonds to over 89 basis points, the highest since the end of 2024 [7] Company News - OpenAI and AMD announced a multi-billion dollar partnership to develop AI data centers powered by AMD processors, with OpenAI committing to purchase AMD chips equivalent to 6 gigawatts of computing power [8] - Eli Lilly plans to invest over $1 billion in India to enhance production capacity for key medications, including those for obesity and diabetes [9] - Boeing is reportedly guiding suppliers to increase the production of the 737 Max to 42 units per month by October 2025, with further increases planned by the end of 2026 [10]

Group 1 - The month of September saw significant deterioration in various aspects, including the potential government shutdown and bleak employment outlook, yet it marked a historic period for commodities, stocks, and forex markets due to a strong upward betting trend [1] - Gold prices surged by 12%, marking the eighth consecutive increase in nine months, while global stock markets continued their upward trajectory, adding approximately $35 trillion in market capitalization [2] - The proportion of pure long-only actively managed funds outperforming benchmarks has dropped to 22%, potentially leading to the worst performance on record [2] Group 2 - A commodity trading advisor index tracking price trends rose nearly 6% in September, and similar trend-following funds achieved their best monthly performance since 2022 [5] - The consensus has shifted positively, with market confidence bolstered by the expectation that President Trump may retract harsher trade measures, alongside the Federal Reserve's focus shifting from inflation to a weak labor market [5] - The S&P 500 index rose by 3.5% in September and continued to increase by 1% the following week, while the dollar maintained a broader downtrend and gold prices rose for the seventh consecutive week [5] Group 3 - Financial system liquidity has been a significant factor supporting risk assets, with the growth rate of money supply exceeding GDP growth, leading to increased inflows into stock and credit markets [6] - In September, total deposits into U.S. ETFs reached $141 billion, marking the third-highest level on record, indicating a broad liquidity seeking to be deployed across various asset classes [6] - The iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF attracted approximately $2.8 billion in 2025, poised for its best annual inflow since 2018, while a high-beta momentum stock basket surged by 17% last month [9]