Core Viewpoint - The report from Cinda Securities indicates that Tmall (06110) has experienced a high single-digit decline in total sales for its retail and wholesale business in Q3 of the fiscal year 2025/26, aligning with previous performance guidance trends [1] Group 1: Retail and Wholesale Performance - Retail business continues to outperform wholesale, with controllable discount and inventory situations reflecting strong retail management capabilities [2] - The decline in retail sales is less severe than that in wholesale, with offline sales showing improvement while online growth is weakening due to high base effects [2] - Overall discount rates in direct retail have deepened year-on-year, but the extent of discounting has narrowed compared to the first half of the fiscal year [2] - Total inventory at the end of the period has decreased year-on-year, maintaining good turnover efficiency, with a slight improvement in inventory age structure [2] - The network of stores is continuously optimized, with a 13.4% year-on-year and 1.3% quarter-on-quarter reduction in gross sales area of direct stores, and the pace of store closures has slowed compared to Q2 [2] Group 2: Collaboration with Core Brands - The collaboration with Nike is deepening, with both companies facing similar pressures in the Chinese market regarding foot traffic, sell-through rates, and inventory challenges [3] - Nike plans to enhance support through increased old goods recovery and inventory impairment processing, optimizing channel inventory structure, and adjusting orders for Spring/Summer 2026 to control new product shipments [3] - Both companies are focusing on regulating online market order and promoting unified price management, suggesting Tmall may rebound alongside its core clients [3] Group 3: New Business Development - The company is steadily advancing its new business layout, with successful establishment in specialized segments [4] - The running category has seen the launch of the running brand collective store Ektos, which has strengthened brand recognition and community connection through events like the Shanghai Marathon [4] - In the outdoor category, the exclusive agency of the high-end Norwegian outdoor brand Norr na has achieved breakthroughs, with the first store opened and plans for expansion in more cities [4] Group 4: Financial Guidance - The company has adopted a conservative financial outlook, noting increased volatility in terminal demand since December and significant operational pressure [5] - The previously set target of "year-on-year net profit flat" is expected to deviate within a controllable range [5] - The company maintains a "short-term cautious, long-term optimistic" attitude, with profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 estimated at HKD 1.285 billion, 1.397 billion, and 1.528 billion, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14.52X, 13.36X, and 12.21X respectively [5]

Group 1 - Hong Kong sportswear stocks experienced a decline in the afternoon, with Xtep International (01368.HK) falling over 5% [1] - Tmall (06110.HK) dropped more than 4.5%, while China Dongxiang (03818.HK), 361 Degrees (01361.HK), and Yue Yuen Industrial (00551.HK) all saw declines exceeding 3% [1]

Group 1 - The stock of Tabo (06110.HK) has dropped over 4%, currently down 4.32% at HKD 2.88 [2] - The trading volume reached HKD 17.4752 million [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tmall's stock has dropped over 4%, currently trading at HKD 2.88, with a trading volume of HKD 17.4752 million [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - For the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025/26, the total sales amount of the retail and wholesale business experienced a high single-digit decline year-on-year [1] - As of November 30, 2025, the gross sales area of direct-operated stores decreased by 1.3% compared to the previous quarter and by 13.4% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - According to Cinda Securities, the decline in total sales aligns with previous performance guidance trends, indicating that retail business continues to outperform wholesale business [1] - The company has demonstrated strong retail management capabilities, with controllable discount and inventory situations [1] Group 3: Financial Guidance - The company noted increased operational pressure due to heightened fluctuations in terminal demand since December, leading to an expected deviation from the previously set target of "year-on-year net profit remaining flat" within a controllable range [1] - The company maintains a "short-term cautious, long-term optimistic" outlook for the future [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's retail and wholesale business experienced a high single-digit decline in total sales year-on-year, aligning with previous performance guidance [1] - Retail performance continues to outperform wholesale, with manageable discount and inventory situations reflecting strong retail management capabilities [2] - The company is expected to collaborate closely with its core brand, Nike, to navigate current market challenges, including foot traffic pressure and inventory issues [3] - The company is actively expanding into new business areas, with a focus on niche segments such as running and outdoor categories, which are anticipated to contribute to future growth [3] - The financial guidance for the year is conservative, with a cautious short-term outlook but a long-term optimistic perspective [3] Financial Summary - For FY2025, total revenue is projected at 27,013 million HKD, with a year-on-year decline of 7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1,286 million HKD, reflecting a 42% decrease year-on-year [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY2025 is estimated at 0.21 HKD, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.25 [6] - The company forecasts a gradual recovery in net profit, with projections of 1,285 million HKD for FY2026, 1,397 million HKD for FY2027, and 1,528 million HKD for FY2028, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14.52, 13.36, and 12.21 respectively [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Shenzhou International, with corresponding PE ratios for FY2026 of 14, 18, and 11 respectively [4][9][21]. Core Insights - Lululemon's FY2025 Q3 revenue increased by 7% year-on-year to $2.6 billion, with a notable 33% growth in international business, particularly in mainland China, which saw a 46% increase [1][12]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the sports footwear and apparel sector amidst a volatile consumption environment, predicting long-term growth potential [3][19]. - The report highlights the expectation of improved orders in the apparel manufacturing sector for 2026, driven by healthy inventory levels and anticipated replenishment from downstream [19][20]. Summary by Sections Lululemon's Performance - Lululemon's Q3 revenue reached $2.6 billion, with a 7% year-on-year growth, while gross profit increased by 2% to $1.4 billion, although gross margin decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 55.6% due to higher tariffs and promotional discounts [1][12]. - The company expects FY2025 revenue growth of 4%, with a potential increase of 5% to 6% when adjusted for a comparable 52-week basis [1][12]. Regional Performance - In the Americas, Q3 revenue declined by 2%, with the U.S. down 3% and Canada down 1%, while the international segment grew by 33%, driven by a 46% increase in mainland China [2][16]. - The outlook for FY2025 suggests a stable performance in the Americas, with expected revenue changes between a decline of 1% to flat [2][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends high-quality stocks in the sports footwear and apparel sector, including Anta Sports and Li Ning, while also suggesting attention to companies like Nike's Greater China retailer, Tmall, which has a PE of 14 for FY2026 [3][19]. - In the apparel manufacturing sector, Shenzhou International and Huayi Group are highlighted as attractive investments due to their competitive valuations and positive customer trends [19][20]. Market Trends - The textile and apparel sector is expected to outperform the broader market, with a focus on companies that demonstrate strong inventory management and growth potential [3][19]. - The report notes that the textile and apparel sector has underperformed compared to the broader market indices, indicating potential for recovery [23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [15]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector has shown weaker performance compared to the overall market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 0.6%, lagging behind the SW All A index by 2.2 percentage points [3][4]. - The report highlights that the retail and wholesale sales of the company for FY26 Q3 have shown a high single-digit decline year-on-year, which aligns with expectations, while inventory levels remain healthy [10][13]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in domestic demand throughout 2026, with specific focus on high-performance outdoor apparel and discount retail segments [9][12]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - The report recommends focusing on the Australian wool price cycle and the growth of non-woven fabrics, with a projected wool production of 244,700 tons for the 25/26 fiscal year, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year [9]. - The demand side is expected to improve as downstream brands and manufacturers reduce inventory levels, leading to a replenishment demand [9]. - Companies like New Australia and Nobon are highlighted as beneficiaries of the rising wool prices and the growth in non-woven fabric products [9]. Apparel Sector - The company, Tabo, reported stable operational indicators for FY26 Q3, with a focus on improving retail capabilities and inventory management, while demand recovery is still awaited [10][11]. - Nike is expected to enhance product innovation and retail capabilities, with a cautious approach to inventory management for 2026, which is anticipated to positively impact the industry [11][14]. - The report suggests positioning in Bosideng for the winter season, as favorable weather conditions are expected to boost sales, alongside a potential recovery in the women's apparel segment [12][15]. Industry Data - From January to November, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles reached 1,359.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [25]. - In November, textile and apparel exports amounted to 23.87 billion USD, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.2%, with apparel exports down by 10.9% [32]. - Cotton prices have seen an increase, with the national cotton price index reported at 15,457 yuan per ton, up by 2.2% [33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, particularly highlighting the potential recovery of Nike and its impact on the supply chain [17]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector has underperformed the market recently, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 0.6%, lagging behind the SW All A index by 2.2 percentage points [3][4]. - Retail sales in the apparel and textile categories showed a total of 1.36 trillion yuan from January to November, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [3][34]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing price increase in Australian wool, with a significant year-on-year rise of 39.9% [39]. - The operational metrics for Tmall in FY26 Q3 were stable, with inventory levels remaining healthy, although demand recovery is still awaited [10][14]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - The textile manufacturing sector is recommended for investment, particularly focusing on the Australian wool price cycle and non-woven fabric growth. The supply side is expected to contract, with a forecasted wool production of 244,700 tons for the 25/26 fiscal year, down 12.6% year-on-year [9]. - New Australia Holdings is highlighted as a key beneficiary of the rising wool prices, with significant growth potential anticipated in Q4 2025 [9]. - Non-woven fabric companies like Nobon and Yanjing are also recommended due to their strong market positions and growth prospects in the hygiene product segment [9]. Apparel Sector - The report notes that Tmall's operational indicators for FY26 Q3 were in line with expectations, with retail and wholesale sales experiencing a high single-digit decline year-on-year. However, inventory levels are healthy, and discount rates are stabilizing [10][14]. - Nike is focusing on product innovation and retail capability enhancement, with expectations for recovery in 2026 as inventory issues are addressed [12][16]. - The report suggests positioning in Bosideng for the winter apparel segment, citing favorable conditions due to recent cold weather and an extended sales window leading up to the Spring Festival [13]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the textile and apparel sector's performance is influenced by broader market trends, with a noted decline in exports, particularly in apparel, which fell by 10.9% year-on-year in November [34]. - The report also highlights the competitive landscape, with a focus on the global tariff dynamics that do not alter the core manufacturing competitiveness [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in retail and wholesale sales for FY26Q3, with total sales decreasing by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year, and a reduction in gross sales area of direct stores by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 13.4% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Retail Strategy - The company is advancing an integrated retail network centered around physical stores, adopting a "1 (offline stores) + N (corresponding online multi-scenario layout)" model for diversified operations [1] - The company is implementing a "one product, one strategy" approach for retail store structural adjustments, focusing on innovation in store scenarios and formats that combine functional services with social attributes [1] - The online ecosystem is expanding with over 800 accounts on Douyin and WeChat video accounts, more than 3,600 mini-program stores, and over 3,700 stores participating in instant retail [1] Group 2: Brand Partnerships - The company is deepening its brand layout in the running and outdoor segments, having established exclusive operational partnerships with brands such as norda, soar, Ciele, and Norr na in mainland China [1] - The company is engaging core users through social media matrices, large-scale events, and community activities, while also utilizing diverse formats like online flagship stores and offline pop-up shops [1] - The company opened its first running concept store, ektos, in Shanghai, focusing on the needs of runners and integrating into the community to enhance user engagement [1] Group 3: User Engagement - The company is building a diversified user value system centered on consumer needs, with a cumulative user base of 89 million, and is enhancing user profiles through multi-platform information integration [1] - The company upgraded its membership system, linking the original member IP "Tao Xiaoxia" with daily scenarios and introducing a cost-saving seasonal card for frequent consumers [1] - To resonate with younger consumers, the company is activating community connections through diverse IP co-branding marketing activities and offline community experience events [1] Group 4: Financial Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting revenues of 26.5 billion RMB, 27.3 billion RMB, and 28.6 billion RMB for FY26-28, with net profits of 1.3 billion RMB, 1.5 billion RMB, and 1.7 billion RMB, and EPS of 0.21 RMB, 0.24 RMB, and 0.27 RMB respectively [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the retail performance of the company continues to face pressure, with a decline in retail sales and an increase in discount rates [1][2] - For FY2026Q3, the company's direct store gross sales area decreased by 1.3% compared to the previous quarter and by 13.4% year-on-year, attributed to the optimization of the offline store network and cautious store modifications [1] - The company is expected to maintain a conservative approach towards FY2027 Nike orders, but Nike's proactive support policies are anticipated to contribute positively to gross margins [1] Group 2 - The company is currently at the bottom of its operational cycle, facing short-term pressures due to weak consumer sentiment in the Greater China region and intense competition [2] - Long-term prospects remain optimistic as Nike is expected to stabilize, which may help the company recover [2] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.24 billion, 1.36 billion, and 1.50 billion yuan for FY2026-FY2028, with respective year-on-year changes of -4%, +10%, and +10% [2]