本文源自：金融界AI电报 运动科技公司Keep(3650.HK)延续涨势，今日盘中一度涨超13%，报6.78港元，4连升，累计最大涨幅接 近30%，股价创5个月新高。 ...

本文源自：金融界AI电报 Keep(3650.HK)午后拉升，一度涨4.55%，报5.75港元。 ...

Core Insights - Keep has achieved profitability through "high-quality business growth" and the shutdown of low-quality operations, indicating a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement [1] - The company forecasts an adjusted net profit of approximately RMB 10 million for the first half of 2025, leading to a nearly 5% increase in stock price following the announcement [1] - The shift towards AI is seen as a critical strategy for Keep to break through existing user and commercialization ceilings, enhancing its core competitive advantage in sports content services [1][2] AI Strategy and Implementation - AI is expected to significantly enhance content production efficiency, allowing Keep to quickly expand its course offerings to include previously unaddressed categories like golf and tennis [2] - The introduction of AI coaches is anticipated to transform Keep's business model from content sales to service delivery, with potential for ARPU to increase by over tenfold [2] - Keep has launched Kinetic.ai and the AI coach Kaka, which customizes training plans based on user needs, marking a significant step in its AI strategy [2] Future Developments - The next phase for Keep's AI coach involves upgrading from personalized coaching to specialized coaching in areas such as marathon running and boxing [3] - Keep plans to categorize its AI coaching services into three tiers: general coaches, personalized coaches, and professional coaches, each with distinct pricing systems [3] - The transition from a content and social relationship-focused app to a data-driven agent model signifies a major shift in how Keep will sell its coaching services [3]

Core Viewpoint - Keep has demonstrated a significant improvement in profitability, achieving a net adjusted profit of approximately 10 million RMB for the first half of 2025, indicating a successful transition towards sustainable growth [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Keep's stock rose by 4.55%, reaching 5.75 HKD, following the announcement of its profitability forecast [1] - The company reported an adjusted net profit of around 10 million RMB for the first half of 2025 under non-IFRS measures [1] Group 2: Strategic Insights - Founder Wang Ning emphasized the importance of identifying the right direction and goals in the fitness industry, which is considered a high-value sector [1] - The advent of the app era has significantly enhanced workout efficiency, reducing the time and financial barriers for users [1] - Keep aims to fully embrace AI technology to further improve fitness efficiency and adapt to the evolving market landscape [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is focused on self-disruption and product iteration to remain competitive, especially with the rise of AI-driven coaching solutions [1] - Wang Ning highlighted that the key to Keep's future success lies in becoming a more efficient and convenient product in the fitness space [1]

恒生科技板块受阿里、京东、美团即时零售补贴战影响短期走弱，但长 期盈利能力仍被看好，建议在合适时机布局。AI 应用端在港股市场表现 超预期，如美图和快手等公司受益于 AI 应用落地，获得积极市场反馈， 值得持续关注。 美团外卖闪购大战中受影响较大，市场份额下降，利润恢复需时。阿里 巴巴在闪购大战中可能体面收场，云计算和 AI 业务是其长期增长点，AI 云需求延后但未消失，预计新一轮大模型迭代将推动需求上升。 携程有望半年内进入港股通，估值有提升空间，但利润端受海外投入影 响，今年可能零增长或低个位数负增长。滴滴下半年可能提交上市申请， 明年有望回归港股并进入港股通，robotaxi 业务是其长期增长点。 雷达赛道公司如禾赛、速腾估值低于芯片公司，但稳态利润率接近 20%，且应用场景广泛，具有更高投资价值。快手可灵产品在 AI 视频模 型领域技术领先，用户规模快速增长，商业化潜力巨大，为公司带来新 的增量空间。 摘要 港美股互联网科技：团队观点汇报 20250804 Q&A 今年（2025 年）港股市场的整体表现如何？ 今年（2025 年）港股市场表现显著，从 2024 年初至今，恒生指数从最低点 15,000 ...

Core Viewpoint - Keep's recent earnings announcement indicates a significant improvement in profitability, with a loss of approximately RMB 36 million for the first half of 2025, a 78% reduction from RMB 163 million in the same period last year, and an adjusted net profit of about RMB 10 million, signaling a successful strategic pivot towards AI [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's core financial indicators show accelerated recovery, with improved gross margins and significantly reduced losses despite a challenging strategic transition [2]. - The positive financial results are attributed to a focus on optimizing business structure and revenue quality, leading to increased gross margins and enhanced operational efficiency through AI technology [2][3]. Group 2: AI Technology Integration - Keep launched Kinetic.ai, a specialized AI model for the sports and health sector, trained on data from 400 million users, which customizes workout plans for users [3]. - The introduction of the AI coach Kaka enhances user experience by providing personalized training plans and multi-modal capabilities, including voice control and image recognition [3][4]. - Keep's hardware products, such as the Keep Watch Pilot 1, serve as essential infrastructure for user retention and data accumulation, evolving from mere revenue supplements to core components of the business model [4][5]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - The market has mixed reactions to Keep's AI strategy, with some concerns about profitability and competition, while others see potential in the intelligent restructuring of the sports health industry [6]. - Institutions like Guosen Securities and Huatai Securities express optimism about Keep's future, recognizing the shift from a simple tool-based app to an AI application as a significant valuation change [6][7]. - The national health policy aimed at improving weight management awareness and skills by 2026 creates a larger potential user base for Keep's AI health management services, transitioning from optional to essential consumption [7][8]. Group 4: Revenue Model Transformation - The traditional fitness industry's bottleneck of scarce professional trainers is being addressed by Keep's AI-generated content, which now constitutes nearly 15% of its course offerings [8]. - The AI Coach redefines the revenue model from "content commodification" to "service experience," enhancing user engagement and payment motivation [8][9]. - The integration of AI allows for a dynamic service loop that simulates the emotional support of in-person trainers, potentially increasing the average revenue per user (ARPU) significantly [9][10]. Group 5: Conclusion - The combination of policy-driven demand and AI-enhanced personalized services is expected to catalyze unprecedented growth in the fitness industry, positioning Keep for a potential market explosion [10].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is challenging the 25,000 point mark, with active trading and a positive risk appetite despite limited corporate earnings improvement [2][6] - The market is awaiting catalysts such as potential China-US summits or unexpected policies from mainland China to drive further gains [2] Sector Focus - The focus for today includes the release of China's one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3] Macro Focus - The Chinese government is encouraging foreign investment through various measures to enhance project service guarantees and optimize land allocation [7] - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in China decreased by 15.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a notable decline in the manufacturing sector [7] - The Ministry of Finance announced plans for a more proactive fiscal policy in the second half of the year [7] - The People's Bank of China maintained the LPR at 3% for one year and 3.5% for five years, aligning with market expectations [7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is promoting innovation in future industries, including humanoid robots and digital transformation in various sectors [7] Corporate News - Xinyi Solar's product prices have dropped, leading to an expected profit decline of 56%-66% for the first half of the year [4] - Meituan, JD.com, and Ele.me were summoned by the market regulator to ensure rational competition in the food delivery sector [8] - HSBC is reportedly dissolving a team focused on managing geopolitical risks despite increasing threats [9] - Ant Group is collaborating with Citibank to enhance foreign exchange risk management using AI technology [9] - Meituan and Alibaba's Taobao are engaged in a price war, reportedly spending 1.6 billion RMB on promotions [9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The IP derivative market in China is projected to reach a scale of 174.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% from 2020 to 2024, indicating rapid market expansion and growth opportunities for related companies [1][2][10]. Core Trends and Insights - **Diverse IP Development**: The Bilibili World 2025 exhibition highlighted a clear trend towards IP diversification, with the rise of national style and domestic animation. Companies like Morning Light and Qixin have launched various products related to national style IPs, indicating the growing influence of domestic culture in the derivative market [1][2][4]. - **Product Type Interpenetration**: Companies are expanding their product lines beyond traditional categories. For instance, card game companies like KAYOU and JICARD are venturing into plush toys and figurines, while Keep is integrating sports medals with IPs, showcasing the effectiveness of cross-industry collaboration to enhance product value and market competitiveness [1][2][5][10]. - **Emotional Value of Products**: There is an increasing emphasis on the emotional value of products, with interactive and socially engaging products gaining popularity. For example, Bandai's promotion of card products at the exhibition exemplifies this trend, highlighting the importance of user experience and engagement [1][3][9]. Impact of Bilibili World 2025 - The exhibition had a positive impact on the industry, with a 35% month-on-month increase in overall cultural tourism bookings in Shanghai during the event, and a staggering 475% increase in hotel bookings in the vicinity. This indicates that such exhibitions not only attract visitors but also stimulate related industries [4]. Future Development Directions - **IP Matrix Construction**: Companies will continue to build IP matrices by leveraging popular and differentiated IPs to avoid competitive saturation and enhance their competitiveness. Popular IPs like Conan and Hatsune Miku, as well as unique character designs from virtual novels, are expected to be key resources for companies [5][10]. - **Product Diversification**: There is a focus on developing a wider range of peripheral products based on licensed IPs, enabling cross-selling of different product types under the same IP to meet diverse consumer needs [5][10]. - **Cross-Industry Collaboration**: The trend of cross-industry collaborations is on the rise, as seen with Keep's integration of sports medals with anime culture, enriching brand connotations and expanding market space [5][10]. - **Enhancing Emotional Value**: Products that emphasize emotional value and social attributes are expected to be more popular, with interactive gaming elements enhancing user experience and loyalty, which will continue to drive industry growth [5][10]. Recommendations for Companies - Key companies recommended for investment include Morning Light, Blukoo, and Qixin Group, which possess strong product development, operational capabilities, and channel layouts. Broadcasting and Chuangyuan are also mentioned as relevant targets. Continuous monitoring of actual sales performance is advised to ensure the accuracy of research conclusions [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The BW2025 exhibition highlights the trend of IP diversification, with a significant presence of domestic cultural IPs, indicating a growing market for IP-derived products as consumer disposable income increases [1][2]. Group 1: Exhibition Insights - The BW2025 exhibition, organized by Bilibili, serves as a platform for content creators and derivative product vendors, showcasing a variety of brands including Qizhi Haowan, Deli, and Aofei Entertainment [2]. - Companies are increasingly building IP matrices to leverage popular IPs for natural traffic while avoiding intense competition in saturated markets [2]. - Popular IPs such as Conan, Fuliang, and others have multiple toy companies vying for their licensing, indicating a competitive landscape [2]. Group 2: Product Development Trends - There is a rapid expansion of product types among toy companies based on IP, with leaders like Kayi and Jikasa diversifying into plush toys, stationery, and more [3]. - The integration of IP into various product lines is expected to create effective synergy and enhance the overall value of the IP [3]. - The importance of operational and channel capabilities of leading toy companies is emphasized as they navigate the increasingly interconnected product landscape [3]. Group 3: Consumer Engagement - Emotional value and interactive gaming experiences are becoming prominent, with card companies setting up live battle areas to meet social needs [3]. - Events such as Coser interactions and product exchanges at the exhibition enhance the engagement and popularity of IP products [3].

Group 1 - Keep participated in Bilibili World as a strategic partner, launching the "Keep运动谷" theme area, which combined sports and ACG culture [1] - The event featured nine exclusive gift packages based on popular IPs like Conan and Haikyuu, attracting many fans [3] - The exhibition allowed attendees to appreciate the craftsmanship of medals and register for on-site collection, promoting a one-stop marketing approach [5] Group 2 - The term "谷子经济" refers to the economic model surrounding ACG-related merchandise, with Keep leading a new cultural trend by merging this with sports motivation [6] - The "谷子经济" market in China is projected to reach 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, growing over 40% year-on-year, and expected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2029 [8] - Keep's virtual spokesperson "元气Big" made its debut at the event, enhancing engagement and promoting the idea of medals as symbols of achievement and trendiness [8]