2026 年 2 月 2 日 股指期货将偏弱震荡 黄金、白银、铂、钯、碳酸锂期货将 震荡偏弱 焦煤、玻璃期货将震荡偏强 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： | 期货品 | 主力合 | 趋势 | 阻力位 | | | | 支撑位 | | 重点备注 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 约 | | | | | | | | | | | 股指 | IF2603 | 偏 ...

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 沪深300ESGETF（561900）业绩比较基准为沪深300ESG基准指数收益率，管理人为招商基金管理有限 公司，基金经理为房俊一，成立（2021-07-06）以来回报为-0.67%，近一个月回报为1.42%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 2月2日，截止午间收盘，沪深300ESGETF（561900）跌1.60%，报0.983元，成交额32.81万元。沪深 300ESGETF（561900）重仓股方面，贵州茅台截止午盘涨2.64%，中际旭创跌7.24%，宁德时代跌 0.06%，招商银行涨0.72%，中国平安涨0.13%，美的集团涨0.49%，长江电力跌0.27%，紫金矿业跌 6.78%，兴业银行涨1.98%，比亚迪跌3.15%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that by the end of 2025, the allocation of actively managed equity public funds in the non-bank financial sector has increased, with a total holding ratio of 1.97%, up by 0.96 percentage points from Q3 2025 [1] - In terms of sub-industry holdings, the insurance, brokerage, and diversified financial sectors have holding ratios of 1.32%, 0.58%, and 0.06% respectively, with significant increases of 0.78 percentage points, 0.15 percentage points, and 0.03 percentage points from Q3 2025 [1] - Despite the increase in public fund holdings in the non-bank financial sector, it remains underweight by 7.63 percentage points compared to the market capitalization of the CSI 300 index [1] Group 2 - As of February 2, 2026, the CSI 800 Securities and Insurance Index has risen by 0.74%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Guolian Minsheng (up 2.27%) and Zhongtai Securities (up 2.03%) [2] - The CSI 800 Securities and Insurance Index is designed to provide investors with diversified investment targets by selecting securities from the securities and insurance industry based on the CSI 800 Index [2] - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 800 Securities and Insurance Index account for 65% of the index, including major companies like China Ping An and CITIC Securities [2]

Summary of Ping An Insurance Group Co of China Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ping An Insurance Group Co of China Ltd - **Industry**: Insurance and Financial Services - **Market Cap**: US$172.647 billion - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: HK$89.00, representing a 22% upside from the closing price of HK$72.70 on January 30, 2026 Key Points Financial Performance and Outlook - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: Management targets an ROE above 15% over the medium term, supported by structural growth in Value of New Business (VNB) and improvements across subsidiaries [2][11] - **VNB Growth**: Expected to be driven by solid agency channel growth and strong performance in the banca channel, with a projected >20% VNB margin [2][17] - **Cost of Capital**: New business profit net of cost of capital is projected to increase from RMB 28.5 million in 2025 to RMB 58.8 million by 2027 [7] Strategic Initiatives - **Integrated Finance Strategy**: Ping An is leveraging its healthcare and senior care businesses to create strategic advantages, combining high-end senior care communities with home-based services [3][24] - **AI Adoption**: Ping An is recognized as a leader in AI, with full-stack capabilities that enhance productivity, risk control, and operational efficiency across its subsidiaries [4][30] Senior Care Business - **Differentiated Model**: Ping An offers both home-based services and premium senior care communities, targeting ultra-high-net-worth customers with specific needs [32][35] - **Community Development**: The ZHEN Living community in Shenzhen exemplifies the company's focus on high-quality facilities and services, catering to affluent seniors [33][36] Banking Operations - **Ping An Bank**: Expected to recover from previous drags on group operating profit after 2026, with improved revenue and profit growth driven by easing net interest margin (NIM) pressure and retail opportunities [5][41] - **Retail AUM Growth**: Anticipated double-digit growth in retail assets under management (AUM) in 2026, supported by a focus on wealth management and customized product offerings [43] Risks and Challenges - **Market Conditions**: Potential risks include volatile equity markets, low interest rates, and elevated asset risks, which could impact capital levels and dividend payouts [54][55] - **Credit Quality**: Management expects continued pressure on corporate loans, particularly in the property sector, but anticipates a decline in non-performing loans (NPLs) as risk digestion progresses [47][48] Conclusion - Ping An Insurance Group is positioned for sustained growth through its integrated finance strategy, strong AI capabilities, and differentiated senior care offerings. The company aims to improve its ROE and VNB growth while navigating potential market risks and challenges.

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Theme Index (931000) experienced a decline of 0.80% as of January 30, 2026, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The Greater Bay Area ETF (512970) fell by 1.24%, with the latest price at 1.52 yuan [1]. - Over the past six months, the Greater Bay Area ETF has accumulated a rise of 17.78% [1]. - The ETF's net value increased by 64.66% over the past two years [1]. Group 2: Return and Risk Metrics - The maximum drawdown for the Greater Bay Area ETF this year is 3.62%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.02% [2]. - The ETF's management fee is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [2]. - The ETF achieved a maximum monthly return of 21.99% since inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being 5 months and a maximum cumulative gain of 32.62% [1]. Group 3: Tracking Accuracy and Composition - The tracking error for the Greater Bay Area ETF over the past three months is 0.022% [3]. - The index closely tracks the performance of companies benefiting from the development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [3]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 44.55% of the total weight, including China Ping An, Luxshare Precision, BYD, and others [3][5].

Group 1 - The article highlights the top short-selling ratios for various companies, with JD Health-R, Anta Sports-R, and Lenovo Group-R leading the list at 100.00%, 89.98%, and 89.87% respectively [1][2] - The top three companies by short-selling amount are CSPC Pharmaceutical Group at 1.268 billion, Zijin Mining Group at 1.031 billion, and Xiaomi Group-W at 1.014 billion [1][2] - The highest deviation values in short-selling are recorded for Kuaishou-WR at 36.02%, Xiaomi Group-WR at 30.00%, and Heptagon Pharmaceuticals-B at 26.77% [1][2] Group 2 - The top ten short-selling ratios include JD Health-R at 100.00%, Anta Sports-R at 89.98%, and Lenovo Group-R at 89.87%, with Kuaishou-WR and Xiaomi Group-WR also featuring prominently [2] - The top ten short-selling amounts show CSPC Pharmaceutical Group leading with 1.268 billion, followed by Zijin Mining Group and Xiaomi Group-W [2] - The top ten deviation values indicate significant short-selling activity, particularly for Kuaishou-WR and Xiaomi Group-WR, suggesting potential volatility [2]

在净流入比方面，南方东西精选（03441）、中国中药（00570）、百奥赛图-B（02315）以51.51%、 44.99%、44.77%位列市场前三。 在净流出比方面，广深铁路股份（00525）、华新建材（06655）、昆仑能源（00135） 以-57.47%、-54.93%、-53.60%位列市场前三。 前10大资金净流入榜 | 股票名称 | 净流入(元)↓ | 净流入比 | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 腾讯控股(00700) | 12.07 亿 | 7.63% | 621.000（+2.31%） | | 泡泡玛特(09992) | 7.42 亿 | 14.21% | 231.400（+7.03%） | | 中国人寿(02628) | 5.66 亿 | 16.39% | 35.180（+3.17%） | | 长飞光纤光缆(06869) | 3.69 亿 | 10.82% | 75.200（+15.43%） | | 金山云(03896) | 3.45 亿 | 18.68% | 7.810（+3.44%） | | 蜜雪集团(02097) | 3.31 亿 | 25.73 ...

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Botai Car Union and Ping An Property & Casualty Insurance aims to integrate technology, finance, automotive, and services to transform the insurance landscape in the smart mobility era [1] Group 1: Strategic Cooperation Details - The companies will create a new service paradigm by integrating AI and data while ensuring data security, leveraging their technological and insurance expertise to enhance user value and satisfaction [2] - They will build a leading safety ecosystem through the "car-insurance linkage" model, combining driving behavior risk perception with Ping An's customer operation system to inject technological momentum into the construction of a strong transportation nation [2] - The partnership will explore new dimensions in smart mobility services by integrating resources, providing one-stop travel solutions, and innovating embedded insurance financial products to foster a new ecosystem of technology empowerment and cross-industry collaboration [2]

Core Viewpoint - The health insurance sector in China is experiencing significant growth and transformation, driven by policy support and market demand, with a focus on high-quality development and integration into the broader health ecosystem [1][2][3]. Expansion of Coverage - The commercial health insurance market has seen an average annual growth rate of over 20% in the past decade, with more than 11,000 medical insurance products available, providing robust support for public health [2]. - By 2025, it is estimated that commercial health insurance will incur approximately 14.7 billion yuan in total claims for innovative drugs and medical devices, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 70% over four consecutive years [2]. Regulatory Guidance - The "Guiding Opinions" issued by the National Financial Regulatory Administration aims to optimize existing policies and clarify future directions for health insurance, emphasizing specialized and professional operations [3]. - The insurance industry is encouraged to enhance collaboration with the health industry and support flexible payment methods for innovative medical technologies [3]. Claims Efficiency Improvement - In 2025, ZhongAn Insurance reported a total claim payout of 17.9 billion yuan, processing approximately 2.9 million claims daily, with a focus on leveraging technology to enhance claims service efficiency [4]. - AI integration in the claims process has enabled over 90% of health insurance users to submit claims with minimal effort, significantly improving transparency and user trust [4]. Infrastructure Development - The establishment of robust infrastructure is crucial for the sustainable operation of the health insurance industry, with a focus on data-driven services such as product verification, risk management, and claims support [5]. - The China Banking and Insurance Information Technology Management Company is enhancing product registration and monitoring industry risks through intelligent systems [5]. Asset Management and Investment - As of 2025, insurance asset management products directed towards the medical sector have exceeded 150 billion yuan, with investments in various healthcare-related fields [8]. - Insurance funds are playing a vital role in supporting the upgrade of the healthcare and elderly care industries, contributing to the development of new productive forces [7][8]. Service Space Expansion - The health insurance sector is evolving to include preventive care and health management, with companies like PICC Health establishing health management subsidiaries to integrate insurance with health services [9][10]. - The collaboration between insurance and healthcare providers is yielding positive results, enhancing patient satisfaction and reducing claims costs through coordinated care [9][10]. Industry Collaboration - The China Insurance Industry Association is actively promoting cross-industry collaboration and developing standardized terms for commercial health insurance, aiming for a cooperative development model with the healthcare sector [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-bank financial sector [1] Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector has shown mixed performance, with the insurance industry outperforming the CSI 300 index recently, while the securities and diversified financial sectors lagged [10][11] - The report highlights a positive outlook for the insurance sector, driven by expected growth in new policies and the ongoing development of the "insurance + health care" model [24][28] - The securities sector is experiencing increased trading volumes and regulatory support, which may lead to new growth opportunities [16][22] - The diversified financial sector is transitioning to a more stable growth phase, with trust assets and futures trading volumes remaining robust [32][38] Summary by Sections 1. Recent Performance of Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sectors - In the last five trading days (January 26-30, 2026), the insurance sector rose by 5.55%, while the securities sector fell by 0.70% and diversified financials dropped by 3.49% [10] - Year-to-date, the diversified financial sector has increased by 2.06%, followed by insurance at 1.24%, while the securities sector has decreased by 1.64% [11] 2. Insights on Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sectors 2.1 Securities - Trading volume has increased significantly, with an average daily trading value of 34,743 billion yuan in January, up 155.35% year-on-year [16] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is proposing to expand the types of strategic investors, which may enhance market stability [20][21] 2.2 Insurance - The insurance sector's premium income for 2025 is projected at 52,696 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year increase [25] - The report anticipates strong performance in new policy sales for 2026, particularly in health and pension insurance [31] 2.3 Diversified Financials - The trust industry saw its asset scale reach 32.43 trillion yuan by mid-2025, a 20.11% increase year-on-year [32] - The futures market recorded a trading volume of 9.51 billion contracts in December 2025, with a transaction value of 90.81 trillion yuan, marking a 45.17% year-on-year growth [38] 3. Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The report ranks the insurance sector highest, followed by securities and diversified financials, recommending companies such as China Life, Ping An, and CITIC Securities for investment [32][46]