证券研究报告 一季度电力装机跟踪 关注海风及生物柴油机遇 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 28 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——大能源行业 2025 年第 17 周周报（20250427） 投资要点： 证券分析师 电力：风光装机首次超过火电，新政下光伏投产提速 风光装机首次超过火电，双碳战略效果显著。国家能源局于 2025 年 4 月 20 日发布 1-3 月全国电力工业 统计数据：截至 3 月底，全国累计发电装机容量 34.3 亿千瓦，同比增长 14.6%。其中，太阳能发电装机 容量 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the significant growth in the Green Power ETF, with a trading volume of 5.68% and a transaction value of 21.79 million yuan, indicating strong liquidity [3] - The Green Power ETF has seen a scale increase of 38.63 million yuan and a share increase of 30.40 million shares since the beginning of the month, reflecting substantial growth [3] - Over the past 18 trading days, the Green Power ETF has attracted a total of 36.26 million yuan in inflows, showcasing its appeal to investors [3] Group 2 - The valuation of the Green Power ETF, tracking the National Green Power Index, has a latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of 18.28, which is at a historical low, being below 88.56% of the time over the past three years [3] - As of March 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Green Power Index include major companies such as Yangtze Power, China Nuclear Power, and Three Gorges Energy, collectively accounting for 57.21% of the index [3] Group 3 - The State Council's recent meeting approved several nuclear power projects, including the Zhejiang Sanmen Phase III and others, totaling five projects and ten new units, indicating a strong governmental push for nuclear energy [3] - Huafu Securities emphasizes the unmatched advantages of nuclear power in addressing global climate change and energy security, expressing optimism for companies with leading positions or key component production capabilities in the nuclear sector [4]

- The Heston model is used to calculate the implied volatility of near-month at-the-money options, serving as the market's fear index. Implied volatility reflects market participants' expectations of future volatility[7] - The shape-based timing strategy for broad-based indices shows a "bullish" signal for indices such as CSI 2000, Guozheng 2000, SSE 50, Wind Micro Cap Index, Wind All A, Hang Seng Financials, Hang Seng Hong Kong 35, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Equal Weight, and Hang Seng Sustainable Development Enterprises Index. Other broad-based indices remain "neutral"[2][14] - The industry shape-based timing strategy is constructed using the scissors difference ratio of long and short positions in industry index constituent stocks. If no bullish or bearish stocks are present on a given day, the scissors difference value and ratio are set to zero. This model outperforms respective industry indices in all cases, demonstrating excellent historical backtesting performance[15] - Positive signals appeared 3,394 times between April 14, 2025, and April 18, 2025, with an average future high-point win rate of 65.46%. Negative signals appeared 4,047 times, with an average future low-point win rate of 35.78%[12] - Six technical stock patterns are summarized, including "Golden Needle Bottom," "Rocket Launch," "Full Red," "Hanging Line," "Heaven Line," and "Cloud Line." Positive patterns like "Golden Needle Bottom," "Rocket Launch," and "Full Red" show strong positive alert effects[26] - Stocks with special bullish shape signals this week include *ST Zhongcheng, Guozhong Water, *ST Haihua, *ST Xintong, ST Spring, and Zhongfu Shenying[27][28] - Broker gold stocks with a 70% win rate bullish shape signal this week include Aerospace Electric, Feilihua, and Qingda Environmental[31][32]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the new energy industry, but it highlights the need for improvement in biodiversity management and disclosure among domestic companies, indicating potential investment risks and opportunities [9][12][75]. Core Insights - The new energy industry is crucial for achieving carbon emission reduction and addressing climate change, but its impact on biodiversity during project implementation is a growing concern [9][10]. - There is an increasing demand for corporate biodiversity management and disclosure, driven by international frameworks and domestic regulations [10][11]. - The current state of biodiversity management and disclosure in the new energy sector is suboptimal, with many companies lacking comprehensive strategies and transparency [12][13][75]. Chapter Summaries Chapter 1: Background - The new energy industry is developing rapidly as a key player in carbon reduction, but its projects often disrupt local ecosystems, raising biodiversity concerns [9]. - International and domestic regulations are evolving to require better biodiversity management and disclosure from companies [10][11]. Chapter 2: Survey List and Methodology - The analysis includes 42 listed companies in the new energy sector, with a focus on their ESG reports and biodiversity management practices [15][18]. Chapter 3: Current Status of Biodiversity Management and Disclosure - MSCI ratings show that among 36 domestic companies, most are rated average or poor, with only a few achieving higher ratings [24][27]. - Governance structures for biodiversity management are disclosed by most companies, but few have established dedicated teams for biodiversity [31][34]. - Disclosure of biodiversity issues is inconsistent, with many companies failing to adequately address or prioritize biodiversity in their reports [36][39]. - Risk management practices are generally lacking, particularly in the area of biodiversity risk assessment [56][59]. - There is a significant gap in setting and disclosing biodiversity conservation targets among domestic companies compared to their foreign counterparts [63][66]. Chapter 4: Typical Cases of Domestic New Energy Enterprises' Disclosure - Power Assets Holdings is highlighted as an example of good practice in governance and biodiversity management, with a clear management structure and focus on environmental issues [77].

山东明确机制电量电价方向，我国连续两个月从美国进口 LNG 数量为零 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 26 日 2 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [左前明 Table_Author] 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 化工行业： 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 唐婵玉 电力公用研究助理 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 ...

据了解，上证中小国企改革指数优选已被中央和地方国资委列为国企改革试点、或已出台相关重大资产 重组方案、或已出台相关国企改革方案、或已完成国企改革的沪市国企上市公司证券作为指数样本，以 反映沪市中小国企改革主题上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数以2013年12月31日为基日，以1000.0点为 基点。 从指数持仓来看，上证中小国企改革指数十大权重分别为：申能股份（3.31%）、天坛生物 （3.23%）、上海贝岭（3.16%）、西部超导（3.12%）、老白干酒（3.04%）、物产中大（3.01%）、沪 硅产业（2.98%）、华域汽车（2.93%）、扬农化工（2.89%）、中直股份（2.81%）。 金融界4月24日消息，A股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，上证中小国企改革指数 (中小企改，950080)报 2383.03点。 数据统计显示，上证中小国企改革指数近一个月下跌3.44%，近三个月下跌0.03%，年至今下跌4.81%。 资料显示，指数样本每季度调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年3月、6月、9月和12月的第二个星 期五的下一交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在 下一个定期调整 ...

截至2025年4月24日 14:04，中证绿色电力指数(931897)强势上涨1.23%，成分股华银电力(600744)上涨10.00%，广西能源(600310)上涨9.98%，银星能源 (000862)上涨5.99%，建投能源(000600)，长源电力(000966)等个股跟涨。绿电ETF(562550)上涨1.06%，最新价报1.05元。拉长时间看，截至2025年4月23日， 绿电ETF近2周累计上涨1.07%，涨幅排名可比基金1/3。 流动性方面，绿电ETF盘中换手3.98%，成交898.07万元。拉长时间看，截至4月23日，绿电ETF近1周日均成交1404.47万元，排名可比基金第一。 规模方面，绿电ETF最新规模达2.24亿元，创近1年新高，位居可比基金1/3。 份额方面，绿电ETF最新份额达2.15亿份，创近1年新高，位居可比基金1/3。 从资金净流入方面来看，绿电ETF近9天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得2335.28万元净流入，合计"吸金"9367.46万元，日均净流入达1040.83万元。 从估值层面来看，绿电ETF跟踪的中证绿色电力指数最新市盈率（PE-TTM）仅16.75倍，处于近1年 ...

Group 1 - The electricity sector is currently seen as a prime investment opportunity, with a significant increase in electricity consumption expected, projected to exceed 9 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2025 [1] - The demand for AI computing power and the rapid development of data centers are contributing to increased electricity consumption, highlighting the importance of the electricity sector in the national economy [1] Group 2 - State-owned enterprises are positioned to capitalize on the evolving electricity demand due to their resource and policy advantages [3] - Three potential companies are identified for investment consideration: - **Guodian Power**: A core power platform under the State Energy Group, with significant holdings by Central Huijin and China Securities Finance. The company is involved in the "East Data West Computing" project and is expected to increase its installed capacity to over 120 million kilowatts after acquiring assets worth 9.7 billion yuan in 2025, with a high dividend payout ratio of 80% [3] - **Sheneng Co.**: Focused on the Shanghai market, providing stable electricity and natural gas supply, with a broad operational scope in energy development and management [4] - A third company, currently priced at 5 yuan, has attracted significant investment from Central Huijin and China Securities Finance, totaling 1.78 billion yuan. This company is diversifying its energy portfolio with a mix of thermal, hydro, wind, and biomass power generation, and is expected to see its stock price rise significantly as summer electricity demand peaks [5]

从估值层面来看，绿电ETF跟踪的中证绿色电力指数最新市盈率（PE-TTM）仅16.76倍，处于近1年 7.42%的分位，即估值低于近1年92.58%以上的时间，处于历史低位。 截至2025年4月22日，A股三大指数涨跌不一。其中上证指数收涨0.25%，报3299.76点；深证成指收跌 0.36%，报9870.05点；创业板指收跌0.82%，报1928.43点。两市总成交额1.09万亿元。 行业热度看，多元金融、物流、一般零售包揽涨幅榜前三，分别上涨2.60%、2.53%、2.18%。 ETF方面，截至收盘，绿电ETF(562550)下跌0.38%，最新报价1.04元，收盘成交额已达608.55万元，换 手率2.76%。 从资金净流入方面来看，绿电ETF近7天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得2335.28万元净流入，合 计"吸金"8897.25万元，日均净流入达1271.04万元。 规模方面，绿电ETF最新规模达2.20亿元，创近2年新高，位居可比基金1/3。 绿电ETF（562550）及其场外联接(018734/018735)跟踪中证绿色电力指数，不仅包括以水电、风电及光 伏发电为代表的清洁能源企业，同时也纳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The power sector is experiencing a fundamental improvement, with a recovery in electricity consumption growth and a narrowing decline in thermal power generation, alongside an increase in the contribution of clean energy [1][3]. Group 1: Electricity Consumption and Generation - In March, the national electricity consumption growth rate rebounded to 4.8%, with the secondary industry growth rate lower than the industrial added value growth rate, possibly due to a decline in electricity demand from high-energy-consuming industries [1]. - The total power generation in March increased by 1.8% year-on-year, with thermal power generation declining by 2.3% year-on-year but improving by 3.5 percentage points month-on-month [1]. - New installed capacity in January-February reached 55 GW, with wind and solar power contributing 9.3 GW and 39.5 GW respectively [1]. Group 2: Pricing and Market Dynamics - Capacity prices have slightly increased, with a year-on-year rise of 23.3%, 11.9%, and 6.1% in various provinces, offsetting the decline in electricity prices [2]. - The price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal has decreased to 663 RMB per ton, down 163 RMB year-on-year, while domestic LNG prices have dropped by approximately 20% since the beginning of the year [2]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The power sector is expected to transition from a weak dividend to a strong dividend, with a notable recovery in earnings per share (EPS) expectations [3]. - The sector is characterized by its defensive attributes, with stable demand and a high degree of market management, as evidenced by over 20 companies announcing increased dividend payouts for 2024 [3]. - Three investment portfolios are recommended: (1) Defensive water and regional energy assets; (2) Elastic thermal power stocks; (3) Policy-driven green energy investments [4].