Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry has undergone three main phases: 1. **Growth Phase (2002-2011)**: Coal was viewed as a growth stock due to rapid industrialization in China, leading to high valuations with PE ratios above 20 times [2] 2. **Cyclical Phase (2011-2022)**: Coal transitioned to a cyclical stock as GDP growth slowed and overcapacity issues emerged, with prices hitting lows in 2015 before recovering due to supply-side reforms and geopolitical factors [2] 3. **Utility Phase (2023-Present)**: The sector is shifting towards a utility model, driven by declining investment returns and coal's appeal as a high-dividend asset [2] Key Insights - **Rising Coal Prices**: The central price of coal has increased from 200-300 RMB per ton in 2003 to 610 RMB per ton by June 2025, driven by improved mining methods, safety requirements, mechanization, and increased mining depth [3] - **Valuation Trends**: The coal sector has seen a systematic increase in valuations due to reduced supply elasticity, insufficient new capacity, and stable long-term contracts that enhance earnings predictability [4][7] - **Production Growth**: Recent increases in coal production are primarily from enhanced capacity utilization, which raises safety risks and is deemed unsustainable in the long term [5] - **Capital Expenditure Trends**: Despite increased capital expenditures, many funds are directed towards power or other sectors rather than new coal projects due to rising investment costs and regulatory challenges [6] Market Performance - **Weak Performance in H1 2025**: The coal sector underperformed due to lower electricity prices, a warm winter, and oversupply from resumed production in Shanxi, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [8] - **Future Demand Outlook**: Despite weak demand in the first half of the year, there are expectations for recovery driven by potential improvements in electricity demand and seasonal factors [9] Price Forecast - **Q4 2025 Outlook**: Anticipated production checks and low inventory levels are expected to drive coal prices up in Q4, with a strong likelihood of price fluctuations and increases in the long term [11][12] - **Focus on Coking Coal**: There is a recommendation to monitor coking coal for potential recovery opportunities due to its current price dynamics [12] Recommended Companies - **Long-term Picks**: Yanzhou Coal and Electric Power are highlighted as long-term investment opportunities, with Yanzhou expected to double its growth over the next five years [13][14] - **Stable Choices**: Shenhua is recommended for its reliability and stability as a leading company in the sector [15] - **Growth Potential**: Electric Power is projected to achieve significant profit growth by 2026, driven by aluminum production and favorable market conditions [16] - **Short-term Focus**: Companies like Lu'an, Ping Coal, and Jinko Coal are noted for their performance elasticity and lower price-to-book ratios, making them attractive in the current environment [18] Conclusion - The coal industry is navigating a complex landscape with shifting investment paradigms and market dynamics. The focus on stable, high-dividend stocks is expected to continue, with specific companies positioned for growth and recovery in the coming quarters [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market" for the coal industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the benchmark index by more than 10% [1][31]. Core Insights - The coal supply has been marginally decreasing from January to August 2025, with a cumulative production of 3.165 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, but with a declining growth rate [4]. - In August 2025, coal prices experienced an unexpected surge due to supply-demand tensions, with significant increases in various coal types, particularly in thermal coal [6][7]. - The report highlights that domestic coal supply continues to contract, which has led to an increase in coal imports, with August imports rising by 20.02% month-on-month, despite a year-on-year decline of 6.78% [5][7]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - From January to August 2025, the cumulative coal supply showed a marginal decrease, with August production at 391 million tons, down 3.2% year-on-year but up 2.5% month-on-month [4]. - The report notes that terminal demand has been supported by manufacturing and infrastructure investments, with fixed asset investment increasing by 0.5% year-on-year [5]. Price Trends - August saw a significant rebound in coal prices, with various types of coal experiencing different degrees of price increases, particularly in coking coal [6][7]. - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal rose unexpectedly, with the peak occurring later than traditional peak seasons [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with the policy shift due to reduced internal competition, there is an improved market risk appetite, making certain stocks more attractive. Key stocks to watch include Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal Industry, and Shanmei International for thermal coal, and Luanan Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal for coking coal [7].

Group 1 - The coal mining sector increased by 1.29% on September 15, with Electric Power Investment leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3860.5, down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13005.77, up 0.63% [1] - Key stocks in the coal mining sector showed significant price increases, with Electric Power Investment rising by 4.04% to a closing price of 23.16 [1] Group 2 - The coal mining sector experienced a net inflow of 323 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 250 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Shanxi Coking Coal and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industries had notable net inflows from main funds, indicating strong institutional interest [3] - The overall trading volume in the coal mining sector was substantial, with Shanxi Coking Coal achieving a transaction amount of 1.054 billion yuan [1][2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the recent stock performance of Lu'an Environmental Energy, which has seen a 3.54% increase on September 15, reaching a price of 13.74 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 41.102 billion CNY [1] - Lu'an Environmental Energy has experienced a cumulative increase of 6.02% over the past three days, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The company's main business activities include coal mining, coal washing, and coke smelting, with coal accounting for 92.66% of its revenue [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, Pengyang Fund has a significant position in Lu'an Environmental Energy, with its Pengyang CSI State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF holding 62,800 shares, representing 1.44% of the fund's net value [2] - The ETF has generated a floating profit of approximately 29,500 CNY today and 49,000 CNY during the three-day increase [2] - The Pengyang CSI State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF was established on August 25, 2023, with a current scale of 45.9165 million CNY and a year-to-date return of 2.74% [2]

行业研究丨深度报告丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 从电力弹性系数出发，看长期煤炭需求韧性 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 需求韧性托底价，长线配置正当时。在电力弹性系数未来重回 1 以上的前提下，考虑到风光装 机增量阶段性达峰，核电增量有限、水电并无连续增量，则火电至少平稳，动力煤需求由此仍 具韧性，由此奠定了动力煤中长期投资价值。板块投资上，当前阶段，我们看好基本面困境改 善叠加"反内卷"主线下的攻守兼备投资性价比。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 庄越 韦思宇 宋楚 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 24 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Ti ...

Core Viewpoint - Lu'an Environmental Energy has shown fluctuations in stock performance, with a recent increase in share price and notable trading activity, indicating potential investor interest and market dynamics [1][2]. Company Overview - Lu'an Environmental Energy, established on July 19, 2001, and listed on September 22, 2006, is based in Xiangyuan County, Changzhi City, Shanxi Province. The company primarily engages in raw coal mining, coal washing, and coke smelting, with its main coal types being lean coal, poor lean coal, and poor coal [2]. - The company's revenue composition is as follows: coal accounts for 92.66%, coke for 5.53%, and other sources for 1.81% [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Lu'an Environmental Energy reported a revenue of 14.069 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.31%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.348 billion yuan, down 39.44% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 25.851 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 14.505 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Lu'an Environmental Energy was 71,000, a decrease of 8.97% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person increased by 9.86% to 42,132 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 44.742 million shares, an increase of 7.126 million shares from the previous period [3].

Core Viewpoint - The coal supply-demand fundamentals are expected to improve due to the "check overproduction" policy leading to reduced output and the anticipated recovery in non-electric coal demand during the "golden September and silver October" peak season, providing upward price elasticity for both types of coal [1][3]. Group 1: Coal Price Dynamics - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy coal type, with expectations for prices to rebound to long-term contract prices, recently surpassing the second target price of around 700 CNY per ton [2]. - The current adjustment in prices is attributed to the seasonal transition from summer to autumn, which has weakened coal consumption, but the upcoming peak season is expected to drive prices up again, particularly in the chemical sector [2][3]. - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply-demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, indicating potential target prices of 1608 CNY, 1680 CNY, 1800 CNY, and 2064 CNY for different levels of market performance [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The coal sector exhibits dual attributes of cyclical elasticity and stable dividends, with many coal companies maintaining high dividend yields despite overall profit pressures [3]. - Six listed coal companies have announced interim dividend plans totaling 24.13 billion CNY, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [3]. - Key coal stocks benefiting from these trends include: - Cycle logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源, 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 - Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 - Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份, 电投能源 - Growth logic: 新集能源, 广汇能源 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing a rebound in prices, particularly for thermal coal and coking coal, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints [1][2][3]. Thermal Coal Summary - As of September 12, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 680 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 1 CNY/ton or 0.15% from the previous period [1][2]. - The price had previously dropped to 675 CNY/ton, which serves as the benchmark for annual long-term contracts, before rebounding [2][3]. - The transition from summer to autumn is expected to boost non-electric coal demand during the "golden September and silver October" period [2]. Coking Coal Summary - The price of coking coal at the Jing Tang port is currently 1540 CNY/ton, up from a low of 1230 CNY/ton in early July [2]. - Coking coal futures have shown a significant rebound, rising from 719 CNY in early June to 1145 CNY, marking a cumulative increase of 59.2% [1][2]. - Coking coal prices are expected to stabilize around 1540 CNY/ton, supported by current demand levels [2]. Investment Logic - The prices of thermal and coking coal are believed to be on the right side of a turning point, with expectations for further recovery towards long-term contract prices [3]. - The current market dynamics suggest that thermal coal prices may reach a target of around 750 CNY/ton by 2025, with a potential peak around 860 CNY/ton [3]. - Coking coal prices are projected based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, with target prices set at 1608 CNY, 1680 CNY, 1800 CNY, and 2064 CNY corresponding to various thermal coal price targets [3]. Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is characterized by dual logic: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends, making it an attractive investment opportunity [4][5]. - The current low prices of thermal and coking coal provide room for upward movement, supported by supply-side policies and seasonal demand [5]. - Six listed coal companies have announced interim dividend plans totaling 24.13 billion CNY, indicating strong dividend intentions despite overall profit pressures [5]. - Key stocks to consider include those benefiting from cyclical logic (e.g., Jinko Coal, Yanzhou Coal), dividend logic (e.g., China Shenhua, China Coal Energy), and growth potential (e.g., Xinjie Energy, Guanghui Energy) [5].

中国煤炭成本十年变迁：刚性抬升重塑安全边际 20250912 摘要 煤炭行业中的部分成本具有弹性，可以通过管理措施进行压降。例如，从价计 征的一些资源费（如资源税）会随市场价格波动而调整，这部分费用相对弹性 较大。此外，一些可变费用，如运输费用、临时劳务费用等，也可以在一定程 度上进行控制和压降。 然而，还有一些刚性产生且难以压降的固定成本。这些 包括： 2. 前期亏欠成本弥补：在 2011 年至 2015 年的十二五时期，许多企业处 于亏损状态，甚至连工资都难以发放。随着市场回暖，这些企业逐步恢 复正常生产，并补发职工绩效、薪酬，以及增加设备、安全投入等。 3. 政策推动：例如，2017 年政府去产能重心转向结构性去产能，加速产 能置换；2021 年因供应紧张，发改委敦促企业加大保供力度。这些政 策措施也对成本产生了一定影响。 1. 职工薪酬及福利：随着市场回暖后，为弥补前期亏欠，公司需要补发职 工绩效、薪酬等，这部分支出具有刚性。 2. 设备及安全投入：为了维持正常生产运营，需要持续投入设备维护、安 全设施等，这部分支出也是必不可少且难以削减的。 3. 政策相关支出：如政府推动去产能、保供力度等政策要求下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [10]. Core Insights - Since the third quarter, the coal sector has seen a cumulative decline of 9% year-to-date, with only a 4% increase since Q3 2025. The report suggests focusing on the coal sector for potential recovery due to favorable demand policies and supply constraints [2][7]. - The report highlights three main advantages for the coal sector: (1) Demand stimulus policies combined with supply control make prices more likely to rise; (2) The coal sector has lower valuations and greater elasticity compared to other cyclical resources; (3) Marginal catalysts such as price stabilization and potential policy support could drive further price increases [2][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 0.31% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.07 percentage points. The thermal coal market price as of September 12 was 680 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 1 CNY/ton [6][20]. - The report notes that the coal sector's performance has been weaker compared to other cyclical resource sectors, which have seen significant gains [7][20]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that despite a decrease in daily coal consumption, the upcoming "golden September and silver October" period is expected to support demand, particularly for non-electric uses. Supply remains constrained due to production controls [21]. - For coking coal, the price remained stable at 1540 CNY/ton, with expectations of limited price declines due to ongoing demand from the steel sector [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks based on their potential for recovery: 1. High elasticity stocks: Yanzhou Coal Mining, Jinneng Holding, Huayang Co., Lu'an Environmental Energy, Pingmei Shenma Energy, and Huaibei Mining. 2. Low valuation growth: Electric Power Investment. 3. Long-term stable profit leaders: China Coal Energy and China Shenhua Energy [8]. Price Trends - Historical data shows that from 2014 to 2024, the prices of both thermal and coking coal typically rise in September, indicating a seasonal trend that could support future price increases [16]. Company Performance - The report lists the top-performing coal companies this week, including Antai Group (8.11%) and Baotailong (5.96%), while noting declines in companies like Anyuan Coal Industry (-5.33%) and Shanxi Coal and Electricity (-1.42%) [31][34].