Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call discusses the impact of Indonesia's resource nationalism on coal, metals, and agriculture sectors, particularly focusing on aluminum, nickel, coal, and palm oil [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Resource Nationalism in Indonesia**: Indonesia is strengthening control over its resources through measures such as reducing export quotas and combating illegal mining to address economic pressures and enhance resource prices [1][2][4]. - **Coal Supply Impact**: Indonesia's reduction of coal export quotas is expected to significantly affect global coal supply, especially for China, potentially leading to tighter domestic supply and price fluctuations between 800 to 1,000 RMB [1][8][6]. - **Palm Oil Market Dynamics**: The acceleration of state control over the palm oil industry, combined with environmental sanctions and U.S. biofuel policies, is anticipated to drive a bull market in palm oil, with prices gradually increasing [1][10][11]. - **Nickel Price and Supply Adjustments**: A decline in nickel prices has led to losses in nickel smelting capacity, prompting the government to reduce nickel ore quotas by approximately 40% in 2026, which may reverse supply-demand dynamics and support price increases [1][13][14]. - **Tin Market Conditions**: The tin market is experiencing a supply-demand tightness, with significant contributions from China and Indonesia, and instability in regions like Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo affecting prices [1][18][20]. Additional Important Content - **Government Policies**: Indonesia's government has implemented policies to combat illegal mining and reduce resource quotas, transitioning from multi-year to annual quota agreements, indicating a strong shift towards resource nationalism [4][5]. - **Investor Recommendations**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with high spot ratios that can benefit from price increases, such as Liu'an Huanneng and Jin Kong Coal, which are seen as having significant upside potential [9][17]. - **Long-term Nickel Supply Concerns**: The long-term outlook for high-grade nickel resources is challenging, with expectations of depletion by 2035, necessitating solutions to address the shortage [16]. - **Tin Demand Resilience**: Despite potential price increases, the demand for tin, primarily in the electronics sector, is expected to remain stable, indicating a positive outlook for price growth [21][22]. Company-Specific Insights - **Zanyu Technology**: The company has a competitive advantage due to its refinery in Indonesia, allowing it to produce refined products without export taxes, thus benefiting from rising palm oil prices [12]. - **Tin Industry Leaders**: Recommended stocks include Tin Industry Co. and Huaxi Nonferrous, both of which are positioned well in the current market environment and are expected to provide significant investment value [22][24].

Summary of Jin控煤业 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jin控煤业 - **Industry**: Coal Mining Key Points Sales and Inventory - Fourth quarter sales improved sequentially, with sales in October to December exceeding the first three quarters [2][4] - Port inventory significantly decreased to approximately 110,000 tons from 600,000 tons in the third quarter, indicating reduced inventory pressure [2][5] Production Forecast - Expected production and sales volume for 2026 is close to the approved capacity of 34 million tons, representing an approximate 10% increase from the actual production in 2025 [2][6] Mining Operations - The Tashan mining area experienced a decline in sales due to quality improvements, with calorific value increasing from 5,000 to 5,500 kcal, leading to some losses [2][7] - The coal supply contract volume from Tashan is consistent with previous years, accounting for half of the company's long-term contract volume [2][8] Pricing Mechanism - Pricing for Tashan coal follows the Qinhuangdao port long-term coal price model, while the pricing mechanism in the Selian area employs a base price plus floating price model [2][8][9] Asset Acquisition - The acquisition of Jin控煤业's assets is currently on hold due to the Shanghai Stock Exchange's requirement for performance commitments, with plans to convert exploration rights to mining rights before proceeding [2][10] Regulatory Approvals - The transition of the Panjiayao mine from exploration to mining is underway, with approvals submitted to the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Emergency Management, but the approval timeline remains uncertain [2][11][12] Investment Returns - The operational situation of the Tongxin coal mine has improved since the third quarter, but full recovery has not been achieved, making it difficult to accurately predict investment returns for 2026 [2][13] Safety and Production Regulation - Safety production regulation is normalized, with no significant changes in regulatory intensity in Shanxi since 2025, although overall safety awareness among enterprises has improved [2][14] Capacity Risks - There is currently no risk of reducing guaranteed supply capacity, as the Ordos Emergency Management Bureau has publicly announced relevant capacity increases [2][15] Cost Management - Reducing production costs is challenging due to the aging of the Tashan and Selian mines, which have increased extraction difficulty and depth [2][17] Capital Expenditure and Dividends - Due to the delay in the Panjiayao injection, there are no large-scale expenditure plans, and the dividend payout ratio is expected to increase to around 50% in 2026 to meet investor demands [2][18] Shareholder Structure - The decision to remove the Shanxi State-owned Assets Operation Company is based on the need for transformation and optimization of capital operations, aiming to improve management efficiency [2][19] Holiday Operations - During the Spring Festival, underground operations will continue without a break, while surface support departments will take time off [2][20]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 交易咨询证书号： Z0023472 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2026 年 2 月 5 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 交易咨询证书号：Z0014484 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | 表1：2月4日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | ...

公司与产经 07 |煤炭产业:基本面持续改善,价格中枢上移 有色市场 · 结构分化,波动加 煤炭产业：基本面持续改善，价格中枢上移 截至2月4日收盘，万得央企煤炭概念指数、万得煤炭开采精选指数涨幅分别达到7.61%和7.58%，中煤 能源、恒源煤电、充矿能源、山西焦煤、潞安环能、山煤国际、晋控煤业等一批个股涨停。煤炭企业人 士、研究员认为，短期内煤价或受印尼矿商暂停现货煤炭出口等消息的扰动。从中长期来看，煤炭供需 基本面有望持续改善，年度价格中枢有望上移。 2月3日，国家高端智库中国石油集团经济技术研究院发布最新预测：2026年，全球石油市场将在"供需 过剩现实"与"地缘冲突风险"之间动态博弈，布伦特油价中枢或维持在每桶60美元至 65美元；全球天然 气市场整体表现为需求增速回升、供应增量高于需求。 有色市场：结构分化，波动加剧 在2月3日中国有色金属工业协会举办的2025年有色金属工业经济运行情况新闻发布会上，协会相关负责 人表示，2025年全球主要有色金属价格整体呈现显著上行态势，我国规上有色金属工业企业利润总额创 历史新高。展望2026年，有色金属市场或有结构性分化，波动程度加剧，价格中枢或仍有上行潜力 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed recovery with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4100 points, closing up 0.85% while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.21% and the ChiNext Index fell 0.4% [1] - The coal energy sector performed exceptionally well, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Meijin Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal [1][2] - The coal mining and processing sector saw an overall increase of 7.92%, with several stocks achieving limit up, indicating strong market interest and performance [2] Group 2 - Recent cold weather has increased energy demand for heating, prompting local governments to enhance energy supply measures, which supports coal production and supply stability [3] - Analysts are optimistic about coal prices stabilizing and rebounding, with expectations of increased demand post-Chinese New Year, suggesting a tight supply-demand balance [3] - The coal ETF has risen over 10% year-to-date, reflecting strong investor interest and net inflows over the past four days [4] Group 3 - International thermal coal prices have significantly increased, with Australian Newcastle coal futures reaching a one-year high, indicating a bullish trend in the market [5] - Forecasts for the coal industry suggest a notable improvement in profitability by 2026, driven by a slowdown in supply growth and recovery in demand [5]

截至2月4日收盘，万得央企煤炭概念指数、万得煤炭开采精选指数涨幅分别达到7.61%和7.58%，中煤 能源、恒源煤电、兖矿能源、山西焦煤、潞安环能、山煤国际、晋控煤业等一批个股涨停。 煤炭企业人士、研究员认为，短期内煤价或受印尼矿商暂停现货煤炭出口等消息的扰动。从中长期来 看，煤炭供需基本面有望持续改善，年度价格中枢有望上移。 煤炭市场已提前进入春节放假状态 从供应端来看，主产区部分民营煤矿提前进入春节假期，国有煤矿维持稳定生产以保障供应，整体产量 边际收缩。 从需求端来看，前期寒潮推动沿海电厂日耗维持高位，但随着寒潮影响减退及春节临近，南方部分工业 企业提前放假，工业用电负荷走弱，电厂日耗逐步回落，可用天数保持在15天左右的安全水平，补库压 力较小，采购以长协煤为主，对市场煤询货稀少。 另外，非电行业陆续进入假期，需求支撑减弱，仅少数库存偏低的终端存在小批量节前补库需求，未形 成规模性采购。供需两弱导致当前交易清淡，煤价持续走弱。2月4日，秦皇岛煤炭网发布最新一期环渤 海动力煤指数，报收于682元/吨，环比下行3元/吨。 在煤炭行业人士看来，当前煤炭板块受到市场热捧，更多缘于印尼方面的减产。作为全球最大的电 ...

Group 1 - The coal market is experiencing a surge, with the Wande Central Enterprise Coal Concept Index and the Wande Coal Mining Selected Index rising by 7.61% and 7.58% respectively, leading to several stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - Short-term coal prices may be influenced by the suspension of spot coal exports by Indonesian miners, while the medium to long-term outlook suggests an improvement in the coal supply-demand fundamentals, with annual price levels expected to rise [2][3] - The coal market is entering a pre-holiday state, with some private coal mines halting production for the Spring Festival, while state-owned mines maintain stable output to ensure supply, resulting in a marginal reduction in overall production [3] Group 2 - The National Bureau of Statistics indicates that by 2025, the national output of industrial raw coal is projected to reach 4.83 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, marking a historical high [4] - In 2025, Shanxi Province's raw coal output is expected to be 1.305 billion tons, reflecting a growth of 2.1%, while the government report suggests that coal production will stabilize around 1.3 billion tons by 2026 [5] - The Xinjiang region's coal production is rapidly increasing, with a projected output of 553 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 1.9%, although this growth rate is significantly slowing compared to previous years [5] - Analysts predict that with Indonesia's coal production targets significantly reduced for 2026, the supply contraction will strengthen, potentially leading to a return to a balanced supply-demand state and a price recovery to the range of 750 to 1000 yuan per ton [6]

写在文章前的声明：在本文之前的说明：本文中所列的投资信息，只是一个对基金资产净值进行排行的客观描述，并无主观倾向性，也不是投资建议，纯属 娱乐性质。 一顿操作猛如虎，基金净值已更新，谁是基金中的王者，谁又垫底，请看数据： | 基金简称 PK | | | 最新净线的司 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 万家宏观择... A | 2.6073 | 8.39% | | | | 519212 | 2026-2-4 | | | | 2 | 万家宏观择 ... C | 2.5686 | 8.38% | 27 | | | 017787 | 2026-2-4 | | | | 3 | 国联煤炭C | 1.9410 | 8.01% | 27 | | | 016814 | 2026-2-4 | | | | 4 | 国联煤炭A | 1.9590 | 7.99% | 8 | | | 168204 | 2026-2-4 | | | | 5 | 国泰中证煤 ... C | 2.1054 | 7.92% | | | | 008280 | 2026-2-4 | | | | 6 | 国泰中证 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.04 印尼削减产量配额，搅动全球煤炭贸易 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 行 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄涛(分析师) | 021-38674879 | huangtao@gtht.com | S0880515090001 | | 邓铖琦(分析师) | 010-83939825 | dengchengqi@gtht.com | S0880523050003 | 本报告导读： 印尼出口政策调整，大幅削减产量配额；全球煤炭 2026 年起供给收缩需求抬升，看 好上升周期；2026 年中国进口煤量或将进一步下降，国内煤价有望恢复增长。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 煤炭《持仓略有提升，焦炭第一轮提价》 2026.02.02 煤炭《国泰海通煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20260202》2026.02.02 煤炭《Q4 基金持仓持续回升，板块拐点确认》 2026.01.30 煤炭《地产政策多部门联动稳预期，非电需求有 望修复》202 ...

印尼矿商暂停煤炭出口，煤价上行预期明 显加强 ——煤炭行业动态跟踪报告 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：2026 年国内煤炭供需基本稳定，海外扰动可能成为驱动煤价变化的主要因 素，目前印尼方面已出现明显扰动，煤价具有上涨可能。且从长期角度，全球煤炭贸易 成本将逐步抬升，对国内煤价将形成支撑。优质煤企此前的估值仅反映出"类债"价 值，随着煤价上涨可能性的提高，将逐步向"类债"+"煤价看涨期权"演变，这部分"看涨期 权"价值目前市场反应还较为有限，推荐中国神华(601088，增持)、中煤能源(601898， 增持)、陕西煤业(601225，增持)、晋控煤业(601001，增持)。 风险提示 经济增速下滑；水电出力超预期；海外煤价大幅下跌；政策实施力度不及预期。 行业名称 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 煤炭行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 04 日 看好（维持） | 蒋山 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110006 | | --- | --- | | | jiangshan2@orientsec.com.cn | | | 0755-82819271 | | 李晓渊 | 执业证 ...