■重点关注 证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2026 年 1 月 28 日 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 4139.90 | 0.18 | | 深证成指 | 14329.91 | 0.09 | | 沪深 300 | 4705.69 | (0.03) | | 中小 100 | 8725.73 | (0.20) | | 创业板指 | 3342.60 | 0.71 | | 行业表现（申万一级） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | 电子 | 2.27 | 煤炭 | (2.27) | | 通信 | 2.15 | 农林牧渔 | (1.95) | | 国防军工 | 1.65 | 钢铁 | (1.34) | | 机械设备 | 0.64 | 美容护理 | (1.22) | | 传媒 | 0.48 | 医药生物 | (1.11) | 资料来源：万得，中银证券 中银晨会聚焦-20260128 重点关注 【宏观经济】2025 年工企利润数据点评—期待 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [2] Core Insights - New home sales in December showed a month-on-month increase of 33.6%, with a year-on-year decline of 32.1%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to previous months [5] - The second-hand home sales saw a year-on-year decline of 30.7% in December, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7%, reflecting a worsening trend in the second-hand market [5] - The overall inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with an average de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - December new home sales area increased by 33.6% month-on-month, but decreased by 32.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 6.6 percentage points [5] - For the entire year of 2025, new home sales decreased by 14%, with a year-on-year decline of 13.7% across 40 cities [5] - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, while second-tier and third-fourth tier cities saw declines of 12.6% and 13.6% respectively [5] Second-Hand Home Sales - December saw a year-on-year decline in second-hand home sales of 30.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7% [5] - The overall second-hand home sales for 2025 decreased by 4%, with first-tier cities still showing positive growth [5] Inventory and De-stocking - The inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with a de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] - Major cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou have de-stocking periods within 12 months [5] Land Market - The land market in December showed a month-on-month increase of 126.7%, but a year-on-year decline of 8.9% [5] - The average land price was 1392 RMB per square meter, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [5] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year sales decline of 20% in 2025, with December sales showing a narrowing decline of 26.7% [5] - The land acquisition amount for December decreased by 58.1% year-on-year, while the total acquisition amount for 2025 increased by 2.6% [5] Financing - The financing scale for the real estate industry decreased in December, but showed a year-on-year increase for the entire year [5] - The total issuance of domestic and foreign bonds and ABS in 2025 was 596.7 billion RMB, a 6% increase year-on-year [5] Policy - The central government emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and reducing the value-added tax on personal home sales to 3% [5] - Local policies have been adjusted to optimize purchase restrictions and loan policies in cities like Beijing [5] Sector Performance - The real estate sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in December, with an absolute return of -4.0% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - New home transaction area has turned negative on a month-on-month basis, with a year-on-year decline expanding [3][13] - Second-hand home transaction area has increased month-on-month and turned positive year-on-year [3][13] - New home inventory area has decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, while the de-stocking cycle has increased [3][13] Summary by Sections 1. New Home Market Tracking - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transaction volume in 40 cities was 16,000 units, down 16.2% month-on-month and down 32.2% year-on-year [14][20] - The new home transaction area was 151.5 million square meters, down 9.7% month-on-month and down 39.6% year-on-year [22][39] - Transaction volume and area for first, second, third, and fourth-tier cities showed varying declines [14][19] 2. Second-Hand Home Market Tracking - In 18 cities, second-hand home transaction volume was 20,000 units, up 2.9% month-on-month and up 9.1% year-on-year [49][51] - The transaction area was 188.2 million square meters, up 4.4% month-on-month and up 18.1% year-on-year [51][52] - First, second, third, and fourth-tier cities exhibited different growth rates in transaction volume and area [45][49] 3. Inventory Situation - New home inventory in 12 cities was 1.373 million units, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.6% [35][38] - The de-stocking cycle for new home inventory was 17.7 months, increasing month-on-month and year-on-year [27][38] - Inventory levels and de-stocking cycles varied across city tiers [26][27] 4. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area in 100 cities was 1,044.9 million square meters, down 3.1% month-on-month but up 0.4% year-on-year [59][60] - Total land transaction value was 16.33 billion yuan, down 1.5% month-on-month and down 15.5% year-on-year [10][65] - The average land price per square meter was 1,562.8 yuan, up 1.7% month-on-month but down 15.8% year-on-year [10][61] 5. Policy Insights - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued measures to support urban renewal [3] - Emphasis on stabilizing housing prices and improving market confidence through various policy measures [3][11]

| IU | 電中口 | 饥爪连何生 | 初三 | 润冲口漠归云川灰用田 | F71年6707 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 71 | 毛不易 | 杭州连荷里 | 粉丝 | 慕思宠粉之夜应援痛街 | 2025年12月 | | | 凡人修仙传 | 武汉大悦城 | 官方 | 凡人动画「凡心悦道」全国首展 | 2025年12月 | | 73 | 非營書 | 南宁朝阳印象城青云街 | 粉丝 | 火星人集结·主题痛街 | 2025年12月 | | 74 | 穏小橋 | Purcotton全棉时代 | 官方 | Purcotton全棉时代x稳小棉痛街 | 2025年12月 | | | 光与夜之恋 | 上海南京路步行街 | 粉丝 | 黎深新年个人应援 | 2026年1月 | | 75 76 | 光与夜之恋 | 杭州连荷里 | 粉丝 | 陆沉生贺痛街 | 2026年1月 | | 77 | 侯明昊 | 昆明万象城 | 粉丝 | 侯明昊应援联动-昆明万象城痛街 | 2026年1月 | | 78 | 王鹤棣 | 澳门百老汇美食街 | 粉丝 | 2026王鹤棣D.Party澳门站 ...

Group 1 - Nanjing Shangyue Tiandi officially opened on January 24, 2026, as the first commercial project by CITIC Pacific Properties in Nanjing, featuring a design concept of "four-layer life cube" and over 40% of area dedicated to first-store brands [7] - Nanjing Jiangbei Impression Hui reopened on January 24, 2026, after a 33 million yuan renovation, transforming it into a modern "park-style shopping mall" with upgraded hardware and new first-store brands [5] - Jinan Haina City Bailian Outlet Phase II officially opened on January 23, 2026, doubling foot traffic and sales since its soft opening in December 2025, expanding to 150,000 square meters with nearly 300 brands [9] Group 2 - Shenzhen Grand China Malls in Luohu District opened on January 18, 2026, covering approximately 38,000 square meters and featuring various retail and dining options [11][12] - Handan Dongyuehui City, the first "first-store economy" project in Handan, officially opened on January 16, 2026, with a total construction area of about 80,000 square meters and 110 brands [15] - Wuhan Ganlu Mountain Jiayou City Outlet is set to open on February 11, 2026, as the first self-operated outlet in Wuhan, focusing on luxury and outdoor brands [17] Group 3 - Shenzhen M80 project, developed by a Tencent subsidiary, is expected to be completed by the end of 2026, with a total construction area of 228,000 square meters, potentially collaborating with the cultural commercial project "Tianmu Li" [20][21] - Hangzhou New World City Art Center is expected to gradually open in 2027, with a total investment of 23 billion yuan and a design that integrates local cultural elements [24] - Shanghai Jiatuo Square GT SQUARE held a brand signing ceremony, with a total area of 190,000 square meters and plans to officially operate in the second half of 2026 [26] Group 4 - Guangzhou's Ma Chang land officially listed for sale on January 23, 2026, with a starting price of 18.6 billion yuan, covering an area of approximately 174,000 square meters [36][37] - New City Holdings held its 2026 annual meeting, reporting over 38,000 housing deliveries in 2025 and a commercial operation revenue of 14.09 billion yuan, with plans for further expansion [38] - Longfor Commercial announced its "Tianjie 2026" strategy, focusing on both existing and new projects to enhance urban commercial experiences [39] Group 5 - BAILIAN Group aims to expand its outlet business to 15 stores by 2030, with a focus on quality development and new project planning in Zhengzhou and Xi'an [41] - Boyu Capital acquired a 75% stake in Beijing Badaling Outlet, indicating a strategic move in the retail sector [42] - Maoye Commercial plans to issue public REITs backed by its Chengdu Maoye Center, aiming for strategic asset restructuring [43]

Core Insights - The opening of the second phase of Jinan Haina City Bailian Outlets marks a significant expansion for Bailian Outlets, with a total area of 150,000 square meters and nearly 300 brands, providing a comprehensive "shopping + leisure + tourism" experience [1][3] - Bailian's General Manager highlighted the project's role in transforming the commercial model and enhancing consumer experience, moving from a transaction-focused space to an experiential destination [1][4] Company Strategy - Bailian Outlets has established itself as a leader in the outlet sector, achieving over 1 million square meters of total building area and maintaining an annual sales growth rate of approximately 20% [3][4] - The company aims to expand its footprint across key cities in China, with plans to increase the number of managed stores to 15 and exceed 2 million square meters by 2030 [7][8] Market Trends - The outlet sector is experiencing growth despite a slowdown in traditional retail, aligning with consumer demand for high value and deep experiences [3][4] - The transformation of outlets into leisure and vacation destinations reflects a broader trend in the retail industry towards integrating cultural and tourism elements [7][9] Future Outlook - Bailian plans to leverage light asset models and public REITs to support its expansion, transitioning from a heavy asset approach to a more balanced capital and operational strategy [8][10] - The company is focused on enhancing its brand influence through data empowerment, experience innovation, and ecosystem collaboration, aiming for high-quality development in the retail sector [10]

GoGBA港商服务站是由香港贸易发展局主导，在粤港澳大湾区设立的一站式官方支持网络。它通过线 上线下相结合的方式，为港商提供政策解读、市场咨询、手续协助及商业对接等在地服务，旨在协助香 港企业把握大湾区机遇，降低跨境营商门槛，高效拓展市场。 戴志丹透露，GoGBA 港商服务站（福田）曾成功搭建桥梁，让香港设计人才与潮汕玩具代工厂对接IP 合作，现场成效显著，未来还计划打造系列细分行业对接活动。 已在福田创业近两年的香港设计师姚俊杰，深刻体会到市场推广的差异。 "拓展客源内地要玩转小红书和抖音。" 他坦言，北上最难点不是注册公司或找办公室，而是打开内地 市场—内地行业竞争激烈，且不同平台运营逻辑迥异，他专门聘请全职自媒体员工，却发现小红书的内 容无法直接用于抖音。 "香港一块钱就能开公司，内地注册资本要几多先够？"这个看似简单的问题，正是许多首次北上创业的 港商会抛出的疑问。 姚俊杰坦言，北上创业最意外的痛点不是注册公司或找场地，而是找生意："在香港做了十几二十年的 室内设计，客源稳定，但内地市场竞争太激烈，我们作为新公司，很难快速被认可。" 随着大湾区融合不断深化，港商北上创业热情持续攀升。广东省市场监督管理 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its adherence to accounting standards and the integrity of its financial reporting, asserting that there are no issues with the accuracy of its net assets [1] Group 1 - The company has consistently received standard unqualified opinions from its auditing firms for annual reports [1] - The management team is committed to enhancing the company's intrinsic value and core competitiveness [1] - The company aims for sustainable and stable development in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bailian Co., Ltd. (600827) emphasizes its commitment to diligent management and continuous improvement in business operations to create greater value for investors [1] Group 1 - The management team is focused on building benchmark commercial models and upgrading key projects [1] - The company is actively enhancing its supply chain construction to improve operational quality [1] - There is a strong emphasis on deepening the integration of production and finance [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Bailian Co., Ltd. (600827) clarified its independent status in response to investor inquiries, stating that it operates separately from Shanghai Port Group (600018) [1]