Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has faced pressure due to volume and price impacts, with a need to wait for demand recovery [1] - The overall performance of the coal sector has lagged behind the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.76% compared to a 0.38% increase in the index [3] - The report anticipates short-term downward pressure on coal prices, with a potential rebound expected around mid-May [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal sector's year-to-date decline is 12.51%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 8.75 percentage points [25] - The sector's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 11.18, showing a slight increase of 0.45 from the previous week [25] - Among 37 A-share stocks in the coal sector, 14 saw price increases, while 22 experienced declines [26] Supply and Demand - Average daily coal sales from monitored enterprises reached 7.24 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 5.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.8% [3] - Total coal inventory at monitored enterprises was 33.34 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.7% and a year-on-year increase of 28.4% [3] - The report notes that electricity and chemical industries have seen coal consumption changes, with electricity down by 5.2% and chemicals up by 17% year-on-year [3] Price Trends - The price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) remains stable at 678 CNY/ton, while the imported thermal coal price index increased by 0.95% to 849 CNY/ton [4] - The report highlights a downward trend in prices for both thermal and coking coal, with expectations for price recovery during peak demand seasons [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [7] - It also recommends attention to coking coal companies like Huaibei Mining and Lu'an Environmental Energy, as well as coking companies with improved profits like Jinneng Technology and Meijin Energy [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [11] Core Insights - The report highlights concerns regarding limited coal demand during the peak season due to negative growth in electricity generation and recent tariff disruptions, suggesting that the impact of tariffs may not reverse the stabilization of coal prices during the peak season [2][7] - Despite the seasonal demand typically increasing in the second and third quarters, the report indicates that the actual demand may be limited, and the market remains cautious due to macroeconomic uncertainties [6][7] - The report suggests that the coal price stabilization trend is likely to continue, supported by steady supply and rising demand for coal, particularly in the context of domestic needs and risk aversion in the market [2][9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) decreased by 0.59%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.97 percentage points, ranking 29th out of 32 industries [19] - As of April 25, the market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 655 CNY/ton, down 8 CNY/ton week-on-week [19][47] Demand and Supply Analysis - The report notes that the coal supply in the twenty-five provinces was 5.076 million tons, an increase of 7.7% from the previous week, while the coal consumption was 4.765 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% [40] - The report emphasizes that despite the current low demand season, the upcoming summer peak season is expected to see a seasonal increase in coal demand, although the extent may be limited due to tariff impacts [7][8] Price Outlook - The report anticipates that coal prices may stabilize or even experience a mild rebound due to steady supply and the necessity for coal consumption, despite potential downward pressure from current demand levels [8][9] - The report also discusses the potential impact of tariffs on coal prices, indicating that while there may be some constraining effects, the overall trend towards price stabilization remains intact [8][9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the coal sector for the next 1-2 quarters, particularly highlighting companies such as China Shenhua (A+H), Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Xinji Energy, while recommending "Overweight" for Pingmei Shenma and Huayang [7][8]. Core Insights - The coal mining industry is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement amidst declining coal prices, with companies managing costs to stabilize profits [2][3]. - The report highlights that the current coal prices are at a bottom level, suggesting that there is no need for pessimism, and the industry may benefit from China's policies aimed at stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the fundamental attributes of the industry and maintaining confidence and determination [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index was reported at 3,215.97 points, down 0.76%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.14 percentage points, ranking 27th among CITIC sectors [2][78]. - Active funds reduced their holdings in the coal sector to 0.44% by the end of Q1 2025, a decrease of 0.38 percentage points from Q4 2024, marking the lowest level since 2021 [2]. Coal Price Trends - As of April 25, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal was around 665 CNY/ton, a decrease of 9 CNY/ton week-on-week [34]. - The report indicates that the current market is experiencing a third round of price bottoming, driven by weak demand and high port inventories [2][34]. Key Company Performance - Yancoal's Q1 2025 comprehensive coal cost was reported at 318 CNY/ton, down 12.9% year-on-year, while China Coal Energy's cost was 270 CNY/ton, down 7.3% year-on-year [5]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong performance indicators, such as Xinji Energy and Shaanxi Coal, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the supply of thermal coal is currently stable, with minor fluctuations, while demand remains weak, primarily driven by non-electric end-users [10][29]. - The report also highlights that the coking coal market is experiencing a weak and stable trend, with prices under pressure due to cautious market sentiment [37]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the coal industry is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand balance, with potential for high-quality development amid ongoing structural reforms [36]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring key factors such as iron and steel production rates and macroeconomic policies that could influence coal demand in the future [51][55].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of coal allocation, highlighting a stable economic environment as indicated by the political bureau meeting, which focuses on stability [1][3] - The coal sector is viewed as entering a "Golden Era 2.0," with core value assets expected to rise again due to favorable macroeconomic policies and capital market support [4][12] - The report suggests that coal stocks are attractive for both stable dividend investment and cyclical rebound potential, with expectations of improved demand and prices following policy implementations [4][12] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The coal sector is seen as a stable dividend investment due to weak domestic economic performance and favorable international monetary policies [4][12] - The cyclical rebound potential is highlighted, with both thermal and coking coal prices expected to stabilize and rebound as supply-demand fundamentals improve [4][12] - The report identifies key coal stocks that are likely to benefit from these trends, categorized into dividend logic, cyclical logic, diversified aluminum elasticity, and growth logic [4][12] Key Indicators Overview - The coal market experienced a slight decline of 0.63%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.02 percentage points [7][9] - The current PE ratio for the coal sector is 10.6, and the PB ratio is 1.2, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [9] Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of April 25, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 655 CNY/ton, down 1.21% from the previous week [15] - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 81%, reflecting a slight decrease [15] - The total inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim is 31.09 million tons, down 2.66% from the previous week [15] Coking Coal Industry Chain - The price of main coking coal at the Jing Tang port remains stable at 1380 CNY/ton [16] - The average daily pig iron production from major steel mills is 2.444 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase [16] - The profitability of major steel mills has improved, supporting the demand for coking coal [16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Add" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current coal prices are primarily influenced by high inventory levels, demand being mainly driven by necessity, and limited upward momentum due to the impact of the flood season on hydropower generation. However, following the May Day holiday, the market is expected to enter a peak summer demand period, which may lead to further price increases [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the incremental insurance funds and the positive growth in premium income, which is increasingly concentrated among leading insurance companies. The ongoing scarcity of fixed-income assets, combined with high dividend assets, suggests a shift towards equity allocation, with a preference for resource stocks [2][38] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - From April 21 to April 25, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3295.06 points, up 0.56% from the previous week. The coal sector index closed at 2548.73 points, down 0.63% [10] - The average daily coal inventory at the four ports in the Bohai Rim decreased to 31.099 million tons, down 2.66% from the previous week [33] 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.8863 million tons, an increase of 7.11% week-on-week. The average daily outflow was 2.0124 million tons, up 35.99% week-on-week [29][33] - The report notes a decrease in the number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim, with an average of 83 vessels, down 4.58% from the previous week [33] 3. Price Trends - The port price for 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 655 yuan/ton as of April 24 [17] - The price index for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim remained stable at 678 yuan/ton as of April 23 [19] 4. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on elastic coal stocks, particularly those with low valuations, such as Guanghui Energy and Haohua Energy [2][38]

2025 年 04 月 27 日 政治局会议传递"稳"字当头，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 ——行业周报 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《火电降幅收窄叠加进口减量，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.4.20 《贸易摩擦升级内需有望发力，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.4.13 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 煤炭 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 1/31 《美国关税超预期致市场趋于避险， 重视煤炭攻守兼备 —行业周报》- 2025.4.6 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 本周要闻回顾：政治局会议传递"稳"字当头，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 （1）动力煤方面：从价格端来看，本周动力煤港口价格小跌，截至 4 月 25 日，秦 港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 655 元/吨，环比下跌 8 元/吨，跌幅 1.21%；CCTD 动力 煤现货价（Q5500）为 66 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 港口库存回落，煤价震荡运行 2025 年 04 月 27 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（4 月 21 日至 4 月 25 日）港口动力煤现货价环比下跌，报收 655 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量188.63万吨，环比上周增加12.51 万吨，增幅 7.11%。矿山产地煤矿正常供应，港口供给略有回升。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量201.24万吨，环比上周增加53.26 万吨，增幅 35.99%；日均锚地船舶共 83 艘，环比上周减少 4 艘，降幅 4.58%。库存端，环渤海四港区库存端 3109.9 万吨，环比上周减少 84.9 万吨，降幅 2.66%。港口本周日均调出量环比上涨，受五一节前补库影 响为主。库存端略有下降，同比仍处高位，叠加下游需求淡季影响，煤 价震荡运行。 我们分析认为：煤炭价格目前主要受库存高位影响、需求刚需为主以及 汛期水电稳增影响导致上涨动能有限，但伴随五一节后将逐步进入迎 峰度夏旺季期，煤价或有进一步上行可能。 估值与建议： 仍旧关注保险资金增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, rating it as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a decrease in coal prices, with thermal coal prices at Qinhuangdao port showing a decline of 2.28% to 2.04% as of April 25, 2025, while supply is expected to contract due to production costs reaching critical levels [1] - The report anticipates a reduction in coal imports due to the rainy season in Indonesia affecting production and transportation, alongside a call from the coal industry association to control low-quality coal imports [1] - The report notes an increase in coal demand, with daily average coal outflow from the four ports in the Bohai Rim rising by 35.99% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in demand despite the traditional off-peak season [1] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The report discusses various safety measures and projects in the coal industry, including the commencement of a coal-to-natural gas pipeline project in Xinjiang, which aims to enhance local coal consumption [9] - It also mentions regulatory efforts in Henan province to improve gas prevention in coal mines [9] Price Trends - The report indicates a decline in domestic thermal coal prices, with specific prices reported for various regions, such as Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, showing decreases of up to 10 CNY/ton [10] - Coking coal prices remained stable, with prices reported for major coking coal regions holding steady [13] Inventory and Supply - The report notes an increase in coal inventory at major power plants, with a total of 14.08 million tons reported, reflecting a 1.08% increase week-on-week [5] - The Bohai Rim port inventory decreased by 2.66% to 31.09 million tons, indicating a tightening supply [22] Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs have risen slightly, with an average increase of 0.31% reported [29] - International shipping costs also saw an increase, particularly for coal transportation from Indonesia to China [29] Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2023 to 2026 [35]

煤炭周报 关税扰动下日耗同比降幅扩大，煤价筑底逻辑未变 2025 年 04 月 26 日 ➢ 关税扰动下日耗同比降幅扩大，煤价筑底逻辑未变。2025 年 4 月关税冲突 加码以来，受下游需求萎缩影响，沿海八省电厂日耗同比出现下降，3 月底周均 日耗 187.1 万吨，同比增加 3.5 万吨(+1.9%)，而截至 4 月 24 日当周，周均日 耗降至 176.0 万吨，同比减少 2.9 万吨(-1.6%)，在此影响下，煤价持续窄幅震 荡，本周环比延续小幅下滑。但同时，持续低煤价下新疆、内蒙古以露天矿为主 的边际产能产量或出现缩减，发运倒挂叠加大秦线检修，港口库存略有去化。展 望后市，非电需求仍维持缓慢提升，煤价向上动力不足，大秦线检修结束后铁路 发运提升，港口或有累库风险，边际产能成本、进口煤价倒挂以及长协基准价对 港口煤价有支撑，下行压力亦有限，预计短期现货价仍以窄幅震荡为主，长协价 仍表现出低波韧性。 ➢ 焦煤短期窄幅震荡为主，旺季或有阶段性反弹但空间有限。当前煤价下部分 配焦原煤转为动力煤销售更具性价比，焦煤价格已基本见底，叠加近期高炉持续 复产，铁水产量已提升至 2024 年以来最高水平 244.35 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, among others [2][3][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal consumption has decreased due to tariff disruptions, with daily consumption in coastal provinces dropping from 1.871 million tons in late March to 1.760 million tons by April 24, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% [1][7]. - Despite low coal prices, there is a lack of upward momentum for coal prices, with expectations of narrow fluctuations in the short term [1][8]. - The report suggests that while there may be a temporary rebound in coking coal prices due to seasonal demand, the overall price increase potential remains limited [2][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report notes that the coal price has been experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent prices reported at 657 CNY/ton for Qinhuangdao port, down 8 CNY from the previous week [8]. - The report indicates that the overall coal market is influenced by both weak demand and tariff disruptions, leading to cautious market sentiment [2][8]. Company Performance - Key companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal are recommended for their stable performance and strong cash flow [2][11]. - The report provides earnings forecasts for major companies, with China Shenhua expected to have an EPS of 2.95 CNY in 2024, and a PE ratio of 13 [3]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the coal sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a weekly decline of 0.8% in the coal sector compared to gains in major indices [12][14]. - It also notes that the coking coal market is expected to stabilize in the short term due to increased demand for steelmaking [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders with stable earnings, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with strong cash flow like Jinkong Coal [2][11]. - It emphasizes the defensive value of companies with low debt and high cash flow amidst ongoing tariff disruptions [8].