必用意亦 券研究报 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 博浩玮 A0230522010001 fuhw@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 算力对区域电力影响更大 地缘ł 短期气价或再现高波动 申万公用环保周报(26/2/23~26/2/27) 2026 年 03 月 02 日 版》 中文 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 电力：中国发电供给充裕，煤电托底高度匹配算力需求。截至 2025 年底，全国发电装机容量 389134 万千瓦，同比增长 16.1%。其中火电装机占比 40%，太阳能发电和风电装机容量分别同比增加 35.4%、22.9%，在风光的快速增长下，清 洁能源的占比大幅提高。发电量 2025 年 1-12 月份，规上工业发电量 97159 亿千瓦时，同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and environmental sectors, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for companies involved in these industries [1]. Core Insights - The power supply in China is abundant, with a projected installed capacity of 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1%. The share of coal power is 40%, while solar and wind power capacities have increased by 35.4% and 22.9% respectively [2][6]. - The "East Data West Computing" project aims to establish a new computing network system, enhancing electricity demand in key provinces [8]. - Natural gas prices are expected to rise globally by 2025, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [2][40]. - The report highlights the significant role of coal power in stabilizing electricity supply, particularly for high-energy-consuming digital infrastructure [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - The installed capacity of power generation in China is projected to reach 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, with a 16.1% increase year-on-year. Coal power accounts for 40% of this capacity, while solar and wind power are rapidly growing [2][6]. - The overall clean energy share is increasing, with coal power contributing 65% of the total electricity generation [6][7]. - The "East Data West Computing" initiative is expected to drive higher electricity consumption in provinces like Guizhou, Zhejiang, and Hebei, with growth rates of 7.7%, 7.2%, and 7.1% respectively [8]. 2. Natural Gas Sector - Global natural gas prices are anticipated to rise by 2025, with the US Henry Hub spot price expected to average $3.51 per million British thermal units, a 59.7% increase year-on-year [40]. - The report notes that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could lead to increased volatility in gas prices [2][20]. - The report recommends focusing on integrated natural gas companies and those benefiting from lower costs and improved supply dynamics [41]. 3. Environmental Sector - The report discusses the introduction of subsidies for green hydrogen projects in Yunnan, which could accelerate the development of the hydrogen and ammonia industry [2]. - Companies such as CIMC Enric and others are recommended for their potential benefits from these developments [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of zero-carbon parks in enhancing green electricity consumption and reducing energy costs for computing enterprises [16].

下单到安全员下车，整体周期最少接近 3 个月，各项条件完备情况下可 缩短至 1-2 周，但适用规模较小。 Q&A 无人矿卡在实际落地中通常有哪些定价与合作模式？客户会如何在"购买套件/ 技术交付、购买整车、租赁、工程运营"等不同模式之间选择？未来模式占比 可能如何变化？ 矿山无人化运营方专家交流 20260226 摘要 无人驾驶矿卡行业呈现多方协作模式，包括矿方直接采购、主机厂与科 技公司租赁合作，以及无人驾驶科技公司主导的工程运营模式，易控智 驾正从工程运营向技术交付转型，而西迪智驾侧重纯技术交付。 技术服务收费通常与质保期绑定，单车三年服务费主流区间为 60 万 ~65 万元，折算至每吨约 0.7 元。工程运营报价随合同期限延长而降低。 报价差异主要取决于单车可分摊的年运输规模，煤矿场景报价较低，金 属矿较高，骨料矿因减产导致单位报价更高。 煤矿车辆在无人矿卡存量中占比高，易控和西迪均超过 80%。单车三年 服务费从 65 万~70 万降至 60 万~65 万，主要受硬件成本下降和行业 竞争加剧驱动，但软件定制化需求和交付成本限制了价格的进一步下降。 行业运输效率持续提升，从 2023 年的 70%~75 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月23日 2026年02月26日 2026年02月28日 公用环保 202602 第 2 期 优于大市 国办发布《关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意见》，2026 年全国碳排放 权交易市场有关工作安排出炉 市场回顾：本周沪深 300 指数上涨 0.36%，公用事业指数下跌 1.25%，环 保指数上涨 0.63%，周相对收益率分别为-1.61%和 0.27%。申万 31 个一 级行业分类板块中，公用事业及环保涨幅处于第 23 和第 15 名。电力板 块子板块中，火电下跌 0.23%；水电下跌 2.06%，新能源发电下跌 0.58%； 水务板块下跌 1.53%；燃气板块下跌 2.27%。 重要事件：国办《发布关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意见》。2026 年 2 月 11 日，国务院办公厅发布关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意 见。文件明确，到 2030 年，基本建成全国统一电力市场体系，各类型电源 和除保障性用户外的电力用户全部直接参与电力市场，市场化交易电量占全 社会用电量的 70%左右。跨省跨区和省内实现联合交易，现货市场全面转入 正式运行，市场基础规则和技术标准全面 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [5][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the release of the State Council's implementation opinions on improving the national unified electricity market system, aiming for 70% of electricity consumption to be market-based by 2030 [14][15]. - The green methanol projects in China are primarily concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Northeast regions, with a planned capacity of 18.37 million tons per year [16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of carbon neutrality and recommends investments in the new energy industry chain and comprehensive energy management [18]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.36%, while the public utility index fell by 1.25% and the environmental index increased by 0.63% [13][21]. - Within the electricity sector, coal-fired power decreased by 0.23%, hydropower by 2.06%, and new energy generation by 0.58% [22]. Important Policies and Events - The State Council issued opinions on the national unified electricity market system, targeting a fully operational market by 2030 [14]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced plans for the 2026 national carbon emissions trading market [15]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major coal-fired power companies like Huadian International and regional power companies like Shanghai Electric due to stable profitability [18]. - New energy companies such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy are recommended due to supportive national policies [18]. - Nuclear power companies like China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are expected to maintain stable profits [18]. - High-dividend hydropower stocks like Yangtze Power are highlighted for their defensive attributes [18]. - The report suggests focusing on environmental companies like China Everbright Environment and Shanghai Industrial Holdings as they enter a mature phase [19]. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Huadian International (600027.SH): Outperform, with an EPS of 0.46 for 2024A and a PE of 9.9 [7]. - Longyuan Power (001289.SZ): Outperform, with an EPS of 0.75 for 2024A and a PE of 20.5 [7]. - China Nuclear Power (601985.SH): Outperform, with an EPS of 0.46 for 2024A and a PE of 20.0 [7]. - China Everbright Environment (0257.HK): Outperform, with an EPS of 0.55 for 2024A and a PE of 9.5 [7].

（来源：淘金ETF） 1. 长江电力（600900） 作为全球水电龙头，长江电力掌控长江流域核心水电资产，旗下三峡、葛洲坝、溪洛渡、向家坝等电站 装机规模与发电量稳居全球第一，水电业务具备稳定、清洁、低成本的核心优势。在全国统一电力市场 建设中，公司作为跨区电力供给核心主体，将充分受益于市场化交易机制完善与绿电溢价提升，同时 AI算力需求爆发带动电力资产价值重估，公司稳定的电力供给能力与绿电属性凸显，在电力行业价值 重构中占据核心地位。此外，公司积极布局抽水蓄能与储能业务，提升调节能力，适配统一市场下的辅 助服务需求，进一步强化全产业链价值。 2. 华电新能（600930） 华电集团旗下新能源核心平台，聚焦风电、光伏等清洁能源项目开发、投资与运营，装机规模持续扩 张，绿电占比不断提升。公司在国内多个区域布局新能源电站，深度绑定"东数西算"等算力项目，提供 稳定绿电直供服务。全国统一电力市场的推进，将为公司绿电交易提供更广阔的平台与更优的溢价空 间；AI算力用电需求高增，也将带动绿电直供与源网荷储协同需求，公司作为新能源发电核心企业， 将充分受益于行业景气度提升。同时，公司积极拓展储能、虚拟电厂等业务，提升调节 ...

°市场热点 HALO交易爆发! 抢占"AI电荒"风 1 HALO,即"重资产、低淘汰率"(Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence)。高盛指出,AI时代资金正在涌向"重资产、 低淘汰"(HALO)实体资产:摩根士丹利也称,这类高壁垒 资产是对冲AI冲击的最佳策略。 ="HALO交易"主导下,电力板块或迎新机遇!基金经理 曹旭辰表示,伴随Al发展,软件等轻资产公司易被取代,能 源、电力等实物资产具备不可或缺性,且AI的发展将持续增 加电力需求,属于AI热潮下的防御性投资。 来源:高盛、摩根士丹利、华宝基金等。 电力ETF华宝 器 159146 一键把握Al能源机遇 全电布局 ·龙头荟萃 ← 标的指数涵盖火电、水电、风电、核电、光伏等发 电方式,权重分别为40.81%、24.81%、14.25%、 11.83%、6.87%,兼具红利及成长属性。 ■ 火电 40.81% 24.81% 水电 14.25% 风电 11.83% 核电 光伏发电 6.87% 1.43% | 电网 数据来源:中证指数公司,分类为中证四级行业,截至2025年12月31日。 � 标的指数前十大权重股为长江电力、中国核电、三 ...

Core Insights - The afternoon saw a significant rise in the electric power sector, particularly in the green energy direction, driven by the recent announcement from the National Energy Administration regarding the first batch of pilot projects for enhancing new power system construction capabilities [1] - A notable development is that China's AI call volume has surpassed that of the United States, with four major models ranking among the top five globally. This increase in Token call volume is linked to electricity and computing power, with China's lower electricity prices enabling a form of overseas expansion through Token call volume [1] - Huatai Securities emphasizes that the advancement of a national unified electricity market will continuously benefit the construction of new power systems from multiple dimensions, including profit mechanisms, development space, and consumption guarantees. The firm is optimistic about three main investment themes: accelerated high-quality development of energy storage, ongoing construction of the main grid framework, and structural growth in renewable energy demand [1] Industry Performance - As of February 27, 2026, at 14:00, the CSI All Share Utilities Index (000995) surged by 2.26%, with constituent stocks such as Fuling Power and GCL-Poly Energy both rising by 10.02%, and Yongtai Energy increasing by 8.77%. Other stocks like Jiufeng Energy and Gansu Energy also saw gains [1] - The Utilities ETF (560190) rose by 2.43%, marking its fourth consecutive increase, with the latest price reported at 1.06 yuan [1] - The CSI All Share Utilities Index closely tracks the performance of representative and investable listed companies within the utilities sector, selected based on liquidity and market capitalization criteria [1] Top Holdings - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI All Share Utilities Index (000995) include: Yangtze Power, China Nuclear Power, Three Gorges Energy, Guodian Power, Yongtai Energy, Huaneng International, State Power Investment, China General Nuclear Power, Shanghai Electric, and Chuanwei Energy, collectively accounting for 53% of the index [2]

特高压权重高达66.28%+智能电网含量55%+可控核聚变含量14%"：电网设备ETF(159326)，最新规模突 破200亿，权重股包括国电南瑞（国内电网智能龙头）、特变电工（全球特高压设备核心供应商）、思 源电气（电力设备研发与制造）等。 格隆汇2月27日｜今日HALO资产继续霸屏涨幅榜，有色金属、矿业、钢铁、电力全线上扬，绿电 ETF(562550)涨1.74%，资金盘中逆势净申购电网设备ETF(159326)1.95亿份，预估净申购4.18亿元，已连 续5日获资金净申购，年内流入额高达151.15亿元，居ETF市场第一。 消息面上 ，高盛、摩根斯丹利同步看好HALO交易，前者提出：AI时代资金正在涌向"重资产、低淘 汰"（HALO）实体资产，比如电网、管道、公用事业、交通基建及关键工业产能，后者也认为具有高 进入壁垒且不易被技术淘汰的实体资产（即"HALO"交易）构成了当前最佳的对冲策略。 HALO含量高的相关产品： MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ AI核心算力层：通信ETF华夏(515050)，权重股以通信设备（中兴通讯）、消费电子（立讯精密）、光 模块（中际旭创）为主，同时覆盖AI算力硬件 ...

阳西召开全县高 质量发展大会暨 提质服务年动员 会_南方+_南方 plus "力争能源总装 机容量突破2000 万千瓦，力争渔 业总产量增长 20%以上。"2月 26日上午，阳江 市阳西县举行全 县高质量发展大 会暨提质服务年 动员会，阳西县 委书记张秀洁提 出，今年阳西将 聚焦海洋经济强 县建设、健康食 品名城建设和旅 游康养圣地建 设，推动阳 西"2+4+X"产业 高质量发展。 春风擂战鼓，奋 进正当时。本次 大会会场选在阳 江阳西产业园区 阳西县高质量发展大会暨提质服务年动员会现场。王荣 摄 四期建设现场， 以最直观的方式 呈现阳西发展活 力。从回顾成绩 到部署新局，从 县镇干部表态亮 目标到企业代表 发声，再到一季 度重点项目集中 动工竣工，这场 大会传递出鲜明 信号：开局争 先，实干为要， 阳西的发展，没 有"旁观席"，只 有"主战场" 。 产业向新 厚积成势夯实发 展底盘 增加值年均增长 15.5%，固定资 产投资累计完成 1300亿元，海上 风电装机容量居 全国县级首位， 渔业产量稳居全 "十四五"收官之 年，阳西交出一 份沉甸甸的成绩 单：五年来，阳 西全县地区生产 总值年均增长 5.1%，规 ...