本周观点 风险提示 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 咖啡茶饮：1）咖啡：高景气维持；行业具备β性红利，各品牌依旧积极开店，整体咖啡行业价格竞争趋缓；阿 拉比卡咖啡期货价格持续下跌，后续有望带来成本改善。2）茶饮：略有承压；短期平台 AI 流量大战，奶茶成为 引流品，数据依旧具备韧性；但有关"糖税"征收相关研究讨论引发市场担忧。 电商：持续承压。受国内消费环境影响，整体国内电商基本面表现平淡。 流媒体平台：音乐流媒体平台为内需驱动的优质互联网资产，高性价比悦己消费，规模效应驱动盈利杠杆释放。 网易云音乐 2025 年收入略微不及预期，关注 2026 年音乐订阅业务有望量价齐升。 虚拟资产&资产交易平台：地缘冲突风险加剧，币价持续承压。香港 2026-2027 年度财政预算案确认香港年内将 提交法案，建立虚拟资产交易商及托管服务提供者的发牌制度，监管范围将进一步扩展至场外交易等数字资产买 卖业务。 汽车服务：IAM中，多家主机系汽服连锁蛰伏后市场，车后连锁品牌持续加码开店 ...

消息面上，大摩发布研报指出，中国内地汽车经销商佣金收入下滑，但盈利仍处于复苏轨道，下调永达 汽车、美东汽车2025至2027年盈利预测，以反映"高息高佣"汽车金融产品整顿后，新车利润率低于预期 的情况。大摩认为，尽管新车业务在2025年下半年进一步恶化，对2025年盈利构成下行风险，但预期中 国汽车经销商盈利将在2025年触底，并于2026年反弹。 本文源自：智通财经网 智通财经获悉，汽车经销商跌幅居前，截至发稿，永达汽车(03669)跌3.75%，报1.54港元；和谐汽车 (03836)跌3.06%，报0.95港元。 ...

港股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：山上 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ^ | 最新价 | 总市值 | 年初至今涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00881 | 中升控股 | -9.12% | 10.560 | 249.95亿 | -9.12% | | 01959 | 世纪联合控股 | -5.52% | 2.910 | 15.42亿 | -11.01% | | 03836 | 和谐汽车 | -4.08% | 0.940 | 14.32亿 | -7.84% | | 03669 | 永达汽车 | -3.75% | 1.540 | 28.57亿 | -12.50% | | 00138 | 中建富通 | -3.08% | 0.063 | 1.01亿 | -10.00% | | 09690 | 途虎-W | -1.00% | 14.900 | 123.16亿 | -7.68% | 2月26日，港股市场汽车零售商股集体下跌，其中，中升控股跌超9%，世纪联合控股跌超5%，和谐汽车跌4%，永达汽 车、中建富通跌超3%。消息面上，香港新一份财政预算案 ...

消息面上，大摩发布研报指出，中国内地汽车经销商佣金收入下滑，但盈利仍处于复苏轨道，下调永达 汽车、美东汽车2025至2027年盈利预测，以反映"高息高佣"汽车金融产品整顿后，新车利润率低于预期 的情况。大摩认为，尽管新车业务在2025年下半年进一步恶化，对2025年盈利构成下行风险，但预期中 国汽车经销商盈利将在2025年触底，并于2026年反弹。 汽车经销商跌幅居前，截至发稿，永达汽车(03669)跌3.75%，报1.54港元；和谐汽车(03836)跌3.06%， 报0.95港元。 ...

消息面上，大摩发布研报指出，中国内地汽车经销商佣金收入下滑，但盈利仍处于复苏轨道，下调永达 汽车、美东汽车2025至2027年盈利预测，以反映"高息高佣"汽车金融产品整顿后，新车利润率低于预期 的情况。大摩认为，尽管新车业务在2025年下半年进一步恶化，对2025年盈利构成下行风险，但预期中 国汽车经销商盈利将在2025年触底，并于2026年反弹。 智通财经APP获悉，汽车经销商跌幅居前，截至发稿，永达汽车(03669)跌3.75%，报1.54港元；和谐汽 车(03836)跌3.06%，报0.95港元。 ...

对于新的一年，大家总愿意多一些美好的期盼。但马年，真的会更好吗？ "去年降了两次薪，不久前还裁了一波员。" 新年之前，北京一奥迪门店负责人刘辉（化名）跟汽车产经网抱怨："已经两个月没有过周末了。" 忙，不是因为年底买车的人多活儿多，而是恰恰相反。 当新年的爆竹声散去，所有残酷的现实都混合着难熬的节后综合症再度席卷而来。去年汽车经销商的生存状况已经是过去八年来最差，盈利的 经销商门店占比已经跌破30％。 "要是看车、提车的人多就不是这样了！现在业绩不好，天天开会到晚上凌晨3、4点，第二天早上还要按时上班。" 2025年豪华品牌终端销量普遍下滑幅度在20%以上，来到经销商层面，新车毛利率均值是-25%。也就是说，一台30万的车，价格倒挂达到7.5万。 最近两个月宝马和奔驰的陆续官降，也并没有实质上缓解经销商的经营压力。"你官方价格降了10%就止跌了？折扣都7折了，10%一点意义都没有。厂家 也就是做做姿态。"刘辉说。 卖一辆亏一辆、越卖越亏，是近年来大部分传统燃油车品牌经销商的缩影，而最新的一波亏损崩盘，杀到了传统豪华品牌身上。 据知情人士透露，奔驰在中国最重要的经销商伙伴利星行，为了缓解资金压力，将办公地点从望 ...

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand car market in China is experiencing significant growth, with transaction volumes reaching 20.1 million units in 2025, but profit margins are declining, leading to a challenging environment for dealers [3][12]. Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - In 2025, the second-hand car transaction volume reached 20.1 million units, marking a new peak, with used new energy vehicles (NEVs) accounting for over 1.6 million units, a year-on-year growth of over 40% [3][10]. - The average transaction price of second-hand cars decreased from 66,700 yuan in March 2025 to 61,600 yuan in September 2025, indicating a price drop in the market [3][7]. - The average profit margin in the second-hand car industry is approximately 4%, reflecting a significant decline compared to previous years [3][9]. Group 2: Profitability Challenges - The average profit margin for second-hand car dealers has decreased, with individual dealers like Wang Yang reporting a drop in profit from 15,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan for a 100,000 yuan vehicle over five years [7][9]. - Factors contributing to declining profits include increased competition, price transparency, and fluctuations in new car prices, which directly affect second-hand car pricing [7][9]. - Major dealer groups are also facing similar challenges, with companies like Yongda Automotive reporting a 60.2% decline in comprehensive profits from their second-hand car business [9][12]. Group 3: New Energy Vehicles as a Growth Opportunity - The penetration rate of second-hand NEVs increased from 3.6% at the end of 2022 to 12% by December 2025, indicating a growing market segment [10][11]. - The average three-year depreciation rate for NEVs is significantly higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, with NEVs averaging a 43% retention rate compared to 62% for fuel vehicles [11][12]. - Despite the challenges, NEVs are seen as a new growth opportunity for second-hand car dealers, with companies like Yongda Automotive planning to accelerate their focus on this segment [11][12].

Core Insights - The second-hand car market in China is projected to reach a transaction volume of 20.1 million units by 2025, with used new energy vehicles (NEVs) expected to exceed 1.6 million units, marking a year-on-year growth of over 40% [1] - The average growth rate of second-hand car sales has slowed down to 5.8% over the past five years, compared to an average of 10.3% in the previous decade, while the average profit margin in the industry has dropped to around 4% [1][3] - The average transaction price of second-hand cars has decreased from 66,700 yuan in March 2025 to 61,600 yuan in September 2025 [1] Market Trends - The proportion of registered second-hand car dealers increased to 73.2% in the first half of 2025, with 96 out of the top 100 companies being second-hand dealers [1] - The revenue from second-hand car sales for dealer groups has risen by 124% compared to 2024 [1] - The competition among second-hand car dealers is intensifying, with many individual operators exiting the market due to declining profits [2] Profitability Challenges - The average profit margin for second-hand cars is approximately 4%, with significant declines in profit per vehicle sold, from around 15,000 yuan five years ago to about 10,000 yuan currently [3] - Factors contributing to profit decline include price volatility of new cars, increased transparency in the market, and intensified competition [3] - The average transaction price for second-hand cars in 2025 is reported to be 64,100 yuan, a decrease of 140 yuan from 2024 [3] Impact of New Energy Vehicles - The penetration rate of second-hand NEVs has increased from 3.6% at the end of 2022 to 12% by December 2025 [6] - The transaction price distribution for second-hand NEVs shows an increase in the share of vehicles priced between 30,000 to 80,000 yuan, while the share of vehicles priced below 30,000 yuan has decreased [6] - The average three-year depreciation rate for NEVs is significantly higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, with NEVs averaging a 43% retention rate compared to 62% for fuel vehicles [7] Strategic Shifts - Companies are exploring new growth avenues such as NEVs and second-hand car exports to adapt to market changes [5] - The overall second-hand car market is expected to grow by nearly 3% in 2025, while NEV transactions are projected to increase by approximately 50% year-on-year [7] - Major players like Yongda Automotive and Zhongsheng Automotive are shifting focus towards NEV channels and online sales models for second-hand vehicles [6][7]

2025年，二手车市场用2010.8万辆的年交易量，为国内汽车市场的规模扩张时代画上句点。站在2000万辆的新起点，中国二手车行业不仅要看到过去的成 绩，更要看到当下的变化与未来的机遇。增速的连年回落、新能源二手车的快速崛起、竞争格局的悄然变化，都在告诫着所有二手车从业者，行业真正的变 革刚刚拉开帷幕。 告别"散户"时代 规模化、品牌化趋势明显 据中国汽车流通协会副秘书长郎学红介绍，年交易2000万辆的成绩之下，不仅是二手车市场规模的不断扩大，更是二手车行业市场格局的持续变化，独立车 商和平台的规模化发展格外凸显。 2025年，多家头部二手车商、二手车平台加快布局连锁经营，二手车市场品牌化发展趋势日渐明显。其中，卡泰驰开放加盟规模化拓展，线下直营及加盟门 店累计已突破100家，单店月销从100辆跃升至300~500辆，实现2025年全年共交付车辆6.5万辆，在库车源1.5万余辆，营收GMV（商品交易总额）超180亿 元。帅车则聚焦超级门店线下布局，在杭州、郑州等多地先后打造二手车品牌MALL。其杭州超级门店单月销量便突破3900辆，全年销量超2.5万辆。 与此同时，多家二手车平台也在加速线下门店的落地。优信先 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國永達汽車服務控股有限公司 (於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司) 呈交日期: 2026年2月5日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03669 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 2,500,000,000 | HKD | | 0.01 HKD | | 25,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 2,500,000,000 | HKD | | 0.01 HKD | | 25,000,000 | 本月底法定/註 ...