证券研究报告 | 2026年02月25日 优于大市 纺织服装海外跟踪系列六十九 亚玛芬2025年收入增长27%，2026管理层指引收入增长16-18% |  行业研究·行业快评 | | |  纺织服饰 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 丁诗洁 | 0755-81981391 | dingshijie@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040004 | | 证券分析师： | 刘佳琪 | 010-88005446 | liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070003 | 事项： 公司公告：2026年2月24日，亚玛芬体育（Amer Sports）披露截至2025年12月31日的2025财年及第四季度 业绩：2025财年收入同比增长27%至65.66亿美元，调整后净利润进一步增长至5.45亿美元（2024年：2.36 亿美元）；2025年第四季度收入同比增长28%至21.01亿美元，调整后净利润为1.76亿美元（2024年Q4：0.9 亿美元）。 国信纺服观 ...

|  行业研究·行业快评 | | |  纺织服饰 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 丁诗洁 | 0755-81981391 | dingshijie@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040004 | | 证券分析师： | 刘佳琪 | 010-88005446 | liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070003 | 证券研究报告 | 2026年02月25日 优于大市 纺织服装海外跟踪系列六十九 亚玛芬2025年收入增长27%，2026管理层指引收入增长16-18% 事项： 公司公告：2026年2月24日，亚玛芬体育（Amer Sports）披露截至2025年12月31日的2025财年及第四季度 业绩：2025财年收入同比增长27%至65.66亿美元，调整后净利润进一步增长至5.45亿美元（2024年：2.36 亿美元）；2025年第四季度收入同比增长28%至21.01亿美元，调整后净利润为1.76亿美元（2024年Q4：0.9 亿美元）。 国信纺服观 ...

【导读】美股大跌，IBM重挫超13%！金银大涨 道指成份股中，IBM跌13%，美国运通跌逾7%，领跌道指。 | 国际商业机器(IBM | 223.370 | -13.14% | | --- | --- | --- | | IBM.N | | | | 美国运通(AMERIC | 321.100 | -7.24% | | AXP.N | | | | VISA | 306.290 | -4.57% | | V.N | | | | 摩根大通(JPMOR( | 297.820 | -4.17% | | JPM.N | | | | 赛富时(SALESFOF | 178.180 | -3.77% | | CRM.N | | | | 耐克(NIKE) | 63.080 | -3.55% | | NKE.N | | | | 假#【MICROSOF】 | 384.470 | -3.21% | | --- | --- | --- | | MSFT.O | | | | 高盛集团(GOLDM | 892.803 | -3.19% | | GS.N | | | | 联合健康集团(UN | 282.435 | -2.61% | | UNH ...

Market Overview - Cooling inflation signals have led to a valuation recovery in overseas consumer assets, with the U.S. bipartisan push for credit card interest rate cap legislation creating uncertainty in the credit card sector[1] - Weekly performance of sectors shows U.S. hotels leading with a 3.1% increase, followed by overseas sportswear at 2.5% and luxury goods at 2.2%[11] Sector Performance - The U.S. hotel sector's strong performance is attributed to Marriott and Hilton, with Marriott's Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA exceeding market expectations, reaching $5.84 billion to $5.93 billion[6] - Overseas sportswear saw a 2.5% increase, driven by a lower-than-expected January CPI of 2.4%, enhancing Fed rate cut expectations[13] - Luxury goods increased by 2.2%, with Hermès up 4.5% due to better-than-expected FY2025 results, while LVMH fell by 4.1% due to disappointing performance in key segments[8] Consumer Trends - The jewelry sector has shown resilience, with a year-to-date increase of 13.7%, outperforming other sectors[11] - Domestic sportswear increased by 0.3%, with Anta Sports rising 4.6% following the acquisition of a stake in PUMA[13] Challenges - The credit card sector faced a significant decline of 5.5%, influenced by proposed legislation to cap interest rates, which could severely impact profitability[14] - The snack sector dropped by 4.6%, with companies like Three Squirrels experiencing a 6.2% decline due to substantial drops in e-commerce sales across major platforms[14] Valuation Insights - Valuations across various sectors remain below the historical five-year averages, with overseas sportswear expected PE at 30.1x, only 57% of the past average[9] - The luxury sector's expected PE is 26.2x, representing 49% of its historical average, indicating potential for future growth as market conditions stabilize[9]

客户端 申洲国际（02313）午后股价上涨4.76%，现报66港元，成交额2.165亿港元。 近日，据市场媒体报道，鞋材大厂日胜化年前（2025年）法说会上指出，随下半年Nike等国际大厂鞋材 订单回温，加上新产品今年陆续发酵，营收、获利均看正向。花旗此前表示，耐克指引2026财年第三季 收入将有低单位数下跌，符合市场预期的下跌1%。在第二财季业绩中，北美市场呈现强劲复苏，收入 上升9%，主要由批发业务增长24%带动，但增长很大程度上被大中华区收入下跌16%所抵消。该行认为 若申洲国际股价因耐克的谨慎展望而出现回调，将会是更好的买入机会。 客户端 申洲国际（02313）午后股价上涨4.76%，现报66港元，成交额2.165亿港元。 近日，据市场媒体报道，鞋材大厂日胜化年前（2025年）法说会上指出，随下半年Nike等国际大厂鞋材 订单回温，加上新产品今年陆续发酵，营收、获利均看正向。花旗此前表示，耐克指引2026财年第三季 收入将有低单位数下跌，符合市场预期的下跌1%。在第二财季业绩中，北美市场呈现强劲复苏，收入 上升9%，主要由批发业务增长24%带动，但增长很大程度上被大中华区收入下跌16%所抵消。该行认为 ...

智通财经APP获悉，申洲国际(02313)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.6%，报65.9港元，成交额2亿港元。 该行续指，申洲国际管理层近期已给予保守预期，料2025年下半年销量增长放缓至中单位数，低于该行 先前预期的高单位数。该行认为，管理层预测已大致反映耐克谨慎前景所带来的影响。不过，该行预期 耐克对申洲国际2026年的销售订单将持平，而非下跌。基于四大客户的订单能见度，申洲国际在2026年 仍有望实现高单位数销量增长。 消息面上，近日，据市场媒体报道，鞋材大厂日胜化年前(2025年)法说会上指出，随下半年Nike等国际 大厂鞋材订单回温，加上新产品今年陆续发酵，营收、获利均看正向。花旗此前表示，耐克指引2026财 年第三季收入将有低单位数下跌，符合市场预期的下跌1%。在第二财季业绩中，北美市场呈现强劲复 苏，收入上升9%，主要由批发业务增长24%带动，但增长很大程度上被大中华区收入下跌16%所抵消。 该行认为若申洲国际股价因耐克的谨慎展望而出现回调，将会是更好的买入机会。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rally in sportswear stocks, with notable increases in companies such as Crocs and On Running, which rose over 3%, and Nike, which increased by 2.3% [1] - The rally in sportswear stocks is attributed to a recent ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court, which determined that the large-scale tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act lacked clear legal authorization [1]

Group 1 - The 25th Winter Olympics in Milan marks the largest participation of Chinese athletes and teams in an overseas Olympic event, highlighting the competitive landscape for sports brands [1] - Anta Group provides equipment support for 13 Chinese national teams, while FILA supports multiple countries, showcasing the global reach of Chinese sports brands [1] - Li Ning, as an official partner of the Chinese Olympic Committee, has developed innovative outfits for the Chinese sports delegation, emphasizing the blend of technology and design in sports apparel [2] Group 2 - The competition among sports brands extends to technological advancements in equipment, with companies like Adidas and Nike introducing innovative features to enhance athlete performance [3] - The collaboration between brands and athletes is becoming increasingly sophisticated, with different brands sponsoring various aspects of an athlete's gear, reflecting a complex commercial landscape [3] - The commercial value of athletes is multi-dimensional, with their visibility and expertise enhancing brand image and exposure, indicating a competitive spectrum in the global sports branding arena [4]

（原标题：更"懂"中国的耐克，要发力了） 作者 | 谢芸子 编辑 | 张帆 进入2026年以来，耐克大中华区动作频频。 首先是高层的人事变动，现任大中华区负责人董炜将于3月31日正式卸任。同时，耐克宣布任命Cathy Sparks为新任大中华区副总裁兼总经理。 董炜于2005年加入耐克，深度参与并见证了大中华区业务发展的多个阶段，其中包括北京奥运会，以及 疫情这一"黑天鹅"事件带来的挑战。 在其任期内，耐克通过上海马拉松、耐克高中篮球联赛、ACG崇礼168等标志性活动，持续推进中国市 场的运动文化发展。 只不过，大中华区近期的业绩表现不那么"如人意"。尽管从整体的财报表现看，这家老牌体育用品集团 正缓慢复苏，逐步摆脱整个行业的下行周期、与近年来的业绩颓势。 耐克的业绩不振始于2022财年，其原因多被归结为DTC策略的受挫、产品创新节奏的变慢，以及在新锐 品牌强势崛起的同时，整个集团更多偏向潮流时尚、对体育市场失焦。 2025财年（2024年6月至2025年5月），耐克全年营收进一步下降至463亿美元，大中华区成为全球跌幅 最大市场，营收下降13%。 耐克营收表现，36氪根据财报数据制图 同年10月，已到退休之 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the discretionary consumption sector, including Nike, Li Ning, Midea Group, JD Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, and many others [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that overseas consumer earnings releases have led to stock price volatility, with A/H shares anticipating a recovery in discretionary consumption in 2026 [1]. - The performance of various sectors is analyzed, with gaming, U.S. hotels, snacks, and retail showing positive trends, while luxury goods and overseas cosmetics are experiencing declines [4][12]. - The report notes that the gaming sector saw a strong increase in gross gaming revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 24%, exceeding market expectations [6][14]. Sector Performance Summary - **Gaming Sector**: Increased by 5.5%, driven by strong January gross gaming revenue growth and positive earnings from MGM China [6][14]. - **U.S. Hotels**: Also up by 5.5%, with Marriott and Hilton showing positive earnings forecasts [6][14]. - **Snacks**: Grew by 3.6%, with companies like Youyou Foods and Qiaqia Foods reporting significant growth expectations [6][14]. - **Retail Sector**: Increased by 3.5%, led by Walmart and Target, which exceeded market sales forecasts [8][14]. - **Domestic Sportswear**: Rose by 2.6%, with Li Ning benefiting from its partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee [8][14]. - **Credit Card Sector**: Gained 2.3%, supported by strong earnings from Visa and Mastercard [8][14]. - **Domestic Cosmetics**: Increased by 2.1%, benefiting from overall strength in the beauty and skincare sector [8][14]. - **Luxury Goods**: Slightly up by 0.9%, influenced by a rebound in the U.S. market [8][14]. - **Overseas Cosmetics**: Decreased by 5.7%, with concerns over the sustainability of growth for Estée Lauder [9][15]. - **Pet Sector**: Down by 0.7%, with companies like Guai Bao Pet and Zhongchong Co. experiencing declines [8][14]. - **Gold and Jewelry**: Fell by 1.2%, affected by fluctuations in gold prices [8][14]. Valuation Analysis - The report indicates that the valuation of various sectors remains below their historical averages, with expected P/E ratios for 2025 showing significant discounts compared to the past five years [10].