Mining Equities 2026 Outlook: Copper Bulls Mixed demand outlook – focus on supply constraints & stock catalysts In 2025, most mining equities delivered healthy returns and outperformed equity benchmarks; but unlike previous broad-based upcycles (post GFC/ Covid), in our view sector performance was predominantly driven by gold and copper; these commodities supported a rally in silver/ PGM/aluminium prices while ferrous metals and energy were flat/down. In 2026, we expect copper, aluminium and lithium to outp ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, supported by the dual - loose expectations of monetary and fiscal policies in the US, the economy is expected to recover moderately, and the US dollar is likely to fluctuate at a high level, reducing the suppression of risk assets. China will enter the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with the economy growing steadily, and fiscal and monetary policies remaining moderately loose. The resonance of domestic and foreign policies is expected to improve the marginal demand for commodities [4][107]. - In terms of supply, the global zinc concentrate increment in 2026 will be about 500,000 metal tons, narrowing compared to 2025, and the raw material supply - demand will turn to a tight balance. The long - term processing fee is expected to rise, but the recovery of overseas refined zinc supply is limited. In China, the smelting capacity continues to expand, but the growth rate of refined zinc production will slow down to 5%, and the actual capacity release of the Huoshaoyun project is the core variable of the domestic supply pattern [4][107]. - The demand shows the characteristics of "slowing growth and sector differentiation". The infrastructure investment growth rate is expected to recover to 4% - 5%, and the projects will be launched in advance. The policy of replacing old with new supports durable - goods consumption, but the growth of automobile production and sales slows down, the policy effect of home appliances weakens, and exports are under pressure. The real estate is still at the bottom - grinding stage, and its drag on zinc consumption is weakening. In the new energy field, the new photovoltaic installations turn negative due to the high base, while the wind power maintains positive growth. The export resilience of primary products will provide consumption increments [4][107]. - Overall, the global zinc mining and smelting are still in the expansion cycle, the supply growth of zinc elements exceeds the demand growth, and the oversupply situation expands slightly. The core logic of zinc price pressure remains unchanged. However, the macro - drive is positive, and the positive expectations of copper and aluminum are expected to partially offset the short - board of zinc fundamentals. In 2026, the zinc price is difficult to show a unilateral market, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 21,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton. There will be phased unilateral opportunities during the macro - micro resonance stage, and the structural opportunities are anchored on the main line of price ratio repair [4][108]. Summary According to the Directory I. Zinc Market Review - In 2025, the zinc market was weak overall, with prominent internal - external structural contradictions. The price fluctuated downward under the influence of macro - policies and fundamental factors. In the first half of the year, factors such as Trump's possible tariff policy and the Fed's suspension of interest - rate cuts suppressed the zinc price. In the second half, the market was in a pattern of "repeated policy expectations and stalemate fundamentals", and the Shanghai zinc main contract fluctuated in the range of 21,600 - 23,200 yuan/ton. The LME zinc showed a trend of first falling and then rising, and the price rebounded due to the decline in LME inventory [9][10]. II. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 US - In 2025, the US economy achieved a soft landing. The GDP growth rate was 2%, lower than 2.8% in 2024. The ISM manufacturing PMI was in the contraction range, the employment market declined, and inflation rebounded moderately. The Fed started preventive interest - rate cuts in September. In 2026, the GDP growth rate is expected to be 2.1%. The impact of tariffs will weaken, and inflation may decline slightly. The fiscal and monetary policies are expected to remain loose, but the change of the Fed chairman may affect the interest - rate cut path. The US dollar is expected to fluctuate, which will relieve the suppression of commodities [13][14]. 2.2 Eurozone - In 2025, the Eurozone economy recovered slightly in the first three quarters, with a GDP growth rate of 1.2%. Inflation dropped to 2.1%, and the ECB kept the key interest rate unchanged since July. In 2026, the GDP growth rate is expected to be 1.1%, and the internal differentiation will continue. Germany's economy may recover, while France's growth may slow down. Inflation is expected to stabilize around 2%, and the ECB's monetary policy is expected to remain stable. The fiscal policy may expand structurally [15][16]. 2.3 China - In 2025, China's economic growth showed a "high - in - the - front and low - in - the - back" feature, with an annual growth rate of about 5%. Exports were strong, but domestic consumption and private investment were weak. In 2026, as the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", the economy is expected to grow steadily, with a GDP growth target of about 5%. The quarterly growth rate may be "low - in - the - front and high - in - the - back". Exports are expected to benefit from the relaxation of Sino - US trade frictions and the fiscal loosening in Europe and the US. The fiscal policy will be more active, and the monetary policy will remain moderately loose [17][18]. III. Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - In 2025, the global zinc concentrate new capacity was 700,000 tons, with an increment of 700,000 metal tons to 12.7 million tons. In 2026, the new capacity will narrow to 500,000 tons to 13.2 million tons. The domestic market will contribute the main increment. The supply - demand pattern is expected to turn from loose to tight balance [29][30]. - The internal and external processing fees first rose and then fell in 2025. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee dropped to 2,000 yuan/metal ton at the end of the year. The import processing fee also declined in November. The CZSPT proposed a 2026Q1 import processing fee guidance of 105 - 120 US dollars/dry ton. In 2025, the zinc ore import increased significantly, and it is expected to remain above 5 million tons in 2026 [36][37][38]. 3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - In 2025, the global refined zinc production increased by 4.12% year - on - year. Overseas production decreased by 5.48% in the first nine months, while China's increased by 7.03%. In 2026, overseas refined zinc production is expected to increase slightly by 50,000 - 100,000 tons, but the recovery is limited due to factors such as cost and raw material supply [44][48]. - In 2025, China's refined zinc production increased by 10.7% year - on - year. In 2026, the production is expected to increase by 350,000 tons to 7.2 million tons, with a growth rate slowing down to 5.1%. The actual production of the Xinjiang Kunlun Zinc Industry project is an important variable. In 2025, the net import of refined zinc was about 250,000 - 260,000 tons, and in 2026, the import and export volume may offset each other [53][54][57]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - Globally, in 2025, the refined zinc consumption increased by 3.9% year - on - year. In 2026, India's zinc demand is expected to continue to expand, the US zinc consumption is expected to grow steadily, and Europe's traditional consumption may improve marginally while the green industry will support consumption [67][68]. - In China, in 2025, the apparent consumption increased by more than 8%, but the actual consumption was weak. The primary product exports were strong, and the galvanized sheet export is expected to continue to grow in 2026. Traditional consumption such as infrastructure and real estate was weak in 2025, and infrastructure investment is expected to recover in 2026. The real estate is still at the bottom - grinding stage, and its drag on zinc consumption will weaken. The growth of automobile and home appliance sales will slow down in 2026. In the new energy field, the new photovoltaic installations may turn negative, while the wind power will maintain positive growth [71][73][77]. 3.4 Global Visible Inventory - In 2025, the global visible inventory had prominent structural contradictions. The LME inventory decreased, and the low inventory supported the LME zinc price. The domestic inventory increased, suppressing the Shanghai zinc price. In 2026, the LME inventory is expected to have limited recovery, and the domestic high - inventory pressure may be difficult to relieve, especially in Q1 [105][106]. IV. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The macro - environment in 2026 is expected to be favorable for the zinc market. The supply - demand pattern will change, with the supply growth narrowing and the demand showing sector differentiation. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely, and there will be phased and structural opportunities [107][108].

Boliden (OTCPK:BDNN.Y) Update Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Boliden - **Industry**: Mining and Metals Key Points and Arguments 2026 Guidance and Outlook - The 2026 guidance includes the first full year of operations for Somincor and Zinkgruvan, contributing to overall production increases [2][3] - Higher grades are expected in open pit mines, with increased mill volume across several mines [2][3] - Aitik's milled volume is projected at 41 million tons, an improvement from the previous year, with copper grades at 0.18% and gold grades at 0.08 grams per ton [6][30] - Garpenberg's production is expected to be 3.7 million tons at 2.9% zinc and 95 grams silver, slightly down from the previous year [6][7] Mine Developments and Permits - An extended permit for Garpenberg allows for higher throughput, although it is subject to potential appeals [3][24] - The Kristineberg expansion and Tara ramp-up are expected to contribute to increased throughput [3][4] - The company is actively working on mine extensions and optimizations, particularly in Somincor and Zinkgruvan [9][11] Financials and CAPEX - The total CAPEX for 2026 is guided at SEK 15 billion, with mine sustaining CAPEX at approximately SEK 6.5 billion [4][35] - The maintenance stop in smelters is expected to impact EBIT by SEK 450 million in 2026, down from SEK 500 million in 2025 [18] - Rönnskär's ramp-up is on track, with an expected annual EBITDA increase of around EUR 150 million as it reaches full production [14][15] Operational Challenges and Adjustments - Odda's commissioning has been delayed by approximately two months due to mechanical and electrical issues [13][70] - The company has encountered oxidization issues in Aitik, which are independent of the diorite problem [22][94] - The Finnish parliament is discussing potential tax increases, which could impact operational costs [3][4] Market Conditions and Pricing - The company has confirmed strong interest from buyers for leach products, indicating favorable market conditions [13] - Rönnskär's updated metal recoveries are expected to positively impact operating profit by SEK 400 million in Q4 2025 [19] Future Investments and Strategic Projects - Future investments are anticipated to maintain production levels, particularly at Garpenberg, which may require additional CAPEX for a new shaft [24][88] - The company is focusing on strategic projects, including the completion of the Aitik dam and the Kristineberg expansion [35][38] Environmental and Compliance Updates - Boliden has completed compliance with global industry standards on tailings management, which is crucial for future operations [11][12] Additional Important Information - The company plans to provide a deeper breakdown of CAPEX and strategic projects during the Capital Markets Day in March [35][39] - Working capital levels are expected to increase with the ramp-up of Odda and Rönnskär, estimated at SEK 500 million and SEK 1 billion respectively [57][58] This summary encapsulates the key points from Boliden's update, highlighting the company's operational outlook, financial guidance, and strategic initiatives for 2026.

Mines Outlook - In 2026, the first full year will include Somincor and Zinkgruvan operations[6] - Higher grades are expected in open pits[6] - Increased milled volume is anticipated at Aitik, Garpenberg, the Boliden Area, and Tara mines[6] - Potential cost increases of EUR 20-30 million are expected annually at Kevitsa[6] - Milled volume is expected to be stable at approximately 4.5 Mtonnes in coming years for Somincor[11] - Milled volume is expected to be stable at approximately 1.5 Mtonnes in coming years for Zinkgruvan[14] Smelters Outlook - Increased zinc and precious metal production is expected in Odda[6] - The Odda expansion is expected to increase annual capacity by 150 ktonnes of zinc and 45 ktonnes of leach product, improving annual EBITDA by approximately EUR 150 million at full production[18] - The ramp-up of the new tankhouse in Rönnskär is planned for H2 2026, with an annual copper cathode capacity of 230 ktonnes and an expected annual EBITDA increase of approximately SEK 1.2 billion when completed[19, 20] - Planned maintenance shutdowns at smelters are estimated to impact operating profit by SEK -450 million for the full year 2026[6, 21] Capital Expenditure - Group capital expenditure (capex) is projected to be SEK 15 billion, including mine sustaining capex of SEK 6.5 billion[6]

Group 1: Availability Paradox and Market Dynamics - Deutsche Bank warns that Pop Mart is facing an "Availability Paradox" as its production capacity aggressively expands to 50 million units per month by year-end, leading to Labubu transitioning from a scarce trendy IP to a mass consumer product, which may signal a decline in popularity for trend-driven toys [1] - If Labubu's popularity peaks in 2026 without new hit products, valuation pressure on Pop Mart will increase significantly [1] Group 2: Copper Market Supply and Price Forecast - Deutsche Bank indicates that the global copper market is experiencing a supply squeeze, with severe supply disruptions pushing copper prices close to historical highs [3] - The report predicts a decline in mine supply by 2025, with only a 1% rebound expected the following year, resulting in a "clear deficit" in the market [3] - As a result, Deutsche Bank raises its copper price forecast for 2026 to $10,600 per ton, with potential peaks exceeding $11,000 per ton in the first half of 2026 [3][6] Group 3: Key Company Updates and Investment Focus - Glencore is set to hold its first Capital Markets Day (CMD) in two years, aiming to restore market confidence in its operational capabilities, while Rio Tinto focuses on business simplification and capital discipline [4][9] - Deutsche Bank lists Anglo Teck, Glencore, and Freeport as preferred stocks, adjusting ratings for Boliden to "Buy" and First Quantum to "Hold" [7] - Glencore's CMD on December 3 is highly anticipated, with expectations that it will provide guidance on copper production and capital expenditures, while also addressing potential M&A discussions [8] Group 4: Rio Tinto's Strategic Focus - Rio Tinto's CMD on December 4 is expected to emphasize capital discipline, business simplification, and divestment of non-core assets, with a projected annual capital expenditure guidance of $10-11 billion [10] - The market will closely monitor production guidance for the Simandou project, amid concerns of potential oversupply [10]

1. 电气化与数字化趋势： 2024年全球电力需求增速已超过GDP增速，并预计将继续以健康的速度扩张。 德银的分析明确指出，全球铜市正面临一场供应挤压。在行业整合加速的背景下，严重的供应中断已将铜价推至接近历史高位的水平。 据追风交易台，11月30日，德银报告认为，由于严重的供应中断和行业整合加速，2025年矿山供应将出现下滑，并在次年仅反弹约1%，市场将处 于"明确的赤字状态"。 12月1日，伦铜价报11279美元/吨，创下历史新高。 铜市展望：供应短缺已成定局 尽管报告也提示了风险，例如对"人工智能泡沫"的担忧，但德银认为，除非全球经济出现严重放缓，否则铜价的激励性定价机制将持续存在。其 背后的长期驱动力在于： 对投资者的影响：这一判断直接导致德银将2026年的铜价预测上调至10,600美元/吨，并预计在2026年上半年峰值可超过11,000美 元/吨。铜市已进入一个由激励性定价主导的新阶段。投资者应密切关注即将到来的几大矿业巨头的"资本市场日"（CMD），尤 其是嘉能可（Glencore），其在并购（M&A）方面的动向以及高达10%的预期自由现金流收益率（2026E）使其成为市场焦点。 关键公司动态：嘉 ...

Summary of J.P. Morgan Copper Dashboard Industry Overview - **Industry**: Copper Mining - **Current Trends**: Global copper production is experiencing a 4% year-to-date increase through August, but growth is slowing due to recent supply disruptions. Global demand has risen by 7% year-to-date as of August, with notable contributions from China, although demand from the rest of the world (RoW) is declining. Global visible inventories have increased to approximately 730,000 tons, which is about 200,000 tons higher than in 2024 and at a five-year seasonal high [1][2][3]. Key Insights 1. **Production and Demand**: - Global copper production increased by 4% year-to-date through August, but there has been a year-over-year decline in output for July and August [1]. - Global demand for copper rose by 7% year-to-date as of August, with Chinese demand growth being offset by a decline in RoW consumption [1]. - The refined copper market is expected to face a deficit of 333,000 tons in 2026 and 162,000 tons in 2027 due to acute supply disruptions [2]. 2. **Price Movements**: - LME copper prices have increased by 25% this year, reaching $4.91 per pound, significantly outperforming aluminum, which saw an 11% increase [1]. - The forward curves for copper are slightly backwardated, indicating potential upside risks to prices due to recent supply disruptions pushing the market into a deficit [1]. 3. **Equity Preferences**: - J.P. Morgan continues to favor specific companies in the copper sector, including Capstone Copper (Overweight), BHP (Overweight), Antofagasta (Overweight), Freeport (Overweight), and First Quantum (Overweight) [1]. 4. **Regional Insights**: - In Chile, overall copper output is expected to remain flat at around 5 million tons per annum, with Codelco facing production challenges. Miners are focusing on technology and innovation to extend mine life and reduce costs, although regulatory reforms are slow [3]. - Labor and equipment markets are tightening, with new activities primarily centered on brownfield projects rather than major expansions [3]. 5. **Market Dynamics**: - High-frequency data shows mixed signals: treatment charges and refining charges (TC/RCs) are firmly negative, while LME net speculative positioning is increasing. However, cancelled warrants and smelter operating rates are declining [1]. - The copper market is expected to tighten as Chinese demand begins to pull on the market, potentially leading to a bullish backdrop for LME copper prices [2]. Additional Important Points - **Global Inventory Trends**: The increase in global visible inventories to ~730,000 tons indicates a significant build-up, which could impact future pricing and supply dynamics [1]. - **Technological Innovations**: The industry is pushing for technological advancements, particularly in ore sorting and chloride-based leaching, to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [3]. - **Investment Recommendations**: J.P. Morgan's coverage includes various companies with differing ratings, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks within the copper sector [7]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the J.P. Morgan Copper Dashboard, providing insights into the current state of the copper industry, production and demand trends, pricing dynamics, and investment recommendations.

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20251124：沪铅上方承压；沪锌震荡偏弱 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/24 | | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | 元/吨 | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | | 17,075.00 | | -0.29% | | | 沪铅期现价格 | | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 17,165.00 | | -0.32% | | | 元/吨 | | 沪铅基差 | | -90.00 | | 5.00 | | | 元/吨 | | 升贴水-上海 | | 25.00 | | - | | | 美元/吨 | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 美元/吨 | -22.41 -85.30 | | 6.50 - | | | 价差 | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | 元/吨 | -5.00 | | 15.00 | | | 元/吨 | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices are under pressure from above and supported from below, with no clear direction. The short - term is expected to maintain range consolidation. Unilateral strategies should focus on high - selling and low - buying, and arbitrage strategies can consider going long on the Shanghai - London ratio [3][65][66]. - The tight pattern of the zinc ore end is expected to continue until the first quarter of next year. The TC has changed from rising to falling, and the industrial chain profit has shifted from the smelter end to the ore end again. The inventory trends at home and abroad are diverging [2][62][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Total Overview - In August 2025, the global zinc market supply surplus expanded to 47,900 tons. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc supply surplus was 154,000 tons. From July to August 2025, the global zinc concentrate cumulative output was 2.1712 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.57%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc output was 9.1482 million tons, basically the same as the cumulative output of last year [11]. - The statistical sample of this report shows that the zinc concentrate output in the third quarter of 2025 was 1.4424 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.95% and a year - on - year increase of 8.20%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 4.254 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.31% [11]. 3.2 Glencore - In 2025, Glencore's zinc concentrate production guidance was adjusted to 94 - 980,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 244,200 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 2.94% and a year - on - year increase of 7.86%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 709,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.22% [19]. 3.3 Teck - In 2025, Teck's zinc concentrate production guidance was 525,000 - 575,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 150,500 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 10.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.59%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 456,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.81% [24]. 3.4 Boliden - In the third quarter of 2025, Boliden's zinc concentrate output was 108,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5.08% and a year - on - year increase of 17.75%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 317,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.12% [27]. 3.5 Vedanta - In the third quarter of 2025, Vedanta's zinc concentrate output was 262,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.16% and a year - on - year increase of 8.26%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 785,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.65% [32]. 3.6 Nexa - In 2025, Nexa's zinc concentrate production guidance was 300,000 - 336,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 83,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 13.88% and a year - on - year increase of 1.21%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 224,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.05% [37]. 3.7 MMG - In 2025, MMG's zinc concentrate production guidance was 215,000 - 240,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 58,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 4.58% and a year - on - year increase of 26.49%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 166,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.85% [44]. 3.8 Newmont Goldcorp - In 2025, Newmont's zinc concentrate production guidance was 236,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 59,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 11.52% and a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 184,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.30% [47][48]. 3.9 BHP - In the 2025 fiscal year, BHP's zinc concentrate production guidance was 90,000 - 110,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 36,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 10.95% and a year - on - year increase of 85.77%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 102,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 91.03% [49]. 3.10 South32 - In the 2026 fiscal year, South32's zinc concentrate production guidance was 40,000 tons, a decrease compared with the 2025 fiscal year. In the third quarter of 2025, the zinc concentrate output was 8,300 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 21.70% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.40%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 29,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31.74% [50][51]. 3.11 Grupo Mexico - SCC - In 2025, SCC's zinc concentrate production guidance was 174,700 tons, a slight increase compared with the previous period. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 45,500 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.89% and a year - on - year increase of 46.42%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 130,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.55% [52]. 3.12 Industrials Pelones - In the third quarter of 2025, Pelones' zinc concentrate output was 63,200 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.33%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 181,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 13.68% [54]. 3.13 Fresnillo plc - In 2025, Fresnillo plc's zinc concentrate production guidance was 93,000 - 103,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 24,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 12.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.41%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 78,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10.61% [57]. 3.14 Market Outlook - The tight pattern of the ore end is expected to continue until the first quarter of next year. The TC has changed from rising to falling, and the industrial chain profit has shifted from the smelter end to the ore end again. The domestic and foreign inventory trends are diverging. Zinc prices are under pressure from above and supported from below, with no clear direction [62][63][65].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In Q4 2025, the TC of zinc ore continued to decline, strengthening the expectation of domestic smelter production cuts. The opening of the zinc ingot export window reduced the pressure of domestic zinc ingot inventory accumulation. The high spread between the domestic and overseas markets attracted attention, with domestic smelters and traders actively seeking exports. The LME zinc has limited room for further significant upside. - There is a need for profit - taking of cross - market long - spread funds, while the participation enthusiasm of cross - market short - spread funds is currently limited. It is a good opportunity to enter cross - market short - spread trades as the inventory difference between domestic and overseas markets has shown signs of convergence, and the fundamentals no longer support the further expansion of the spread. The spread is expected to converge to the range of 1,000 - 1,500 yuan/ton. - The high - low rotation of funds has spread from the stock market to the futures market, and a rebound of oversold varieties can be expected. In Q4, Shanghai zinc is not recommended as a short - allocation. The rebound height is temporarily seen at the annual line of 23,200 yuan/ton. It is unlikely to rebound to the high - level range of 24,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year unless the domestic deflation expectation is broken and overseas consumption exceeds expectations. - The price range of Shanghai zinc in Q4 is expected to be 22,200 - 23,200 yuan/ton, and the price range of LME zinc is 2,900 - 3,100 US dollars/ton. [73][74] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Price History and Current Situation - Historically, factors such as the European debt crisis, US QE policies, mine shortages, and changes in TC have affected zinc prices. In 2025, the zinc market has complex supply - demand and price relationships. The LME zinc inventory is 35,300 tons, SMM zinc inventory is 159,600 tons, and the smelter raw material inventory is 26 days. The LME 0 - 3 month premium is 117.04 US dollars. [5][21] - In 2025, from January to July, China's zinc ingot production was 3.8425 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.65%. From January to September, the output was 5.0685 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.83%. However, some overseas refineries have reduced production due to factors such as low TC and profit problems. In H1 2025, the overall output of major overseas refineries decreased by 89,900 tons year - on - year, a decline of 4.34%. [28][29][39] 3.2 Market Factors - **Supply - side factors**: New domestic mines such as Huoshaoyun, Russia's OZ mine, and Congo's Kipushi lead - zinc mine have been put into production, effectively alleviating the raw material constraints on domestic refineries. However, overseas refineries' profit recovery will lead to competition for mines between overseas and domestic refineries. [30][41] - **Demand - side factors**: The real estate market has shown signs of weakness, with a decline in real estate investment and a mixed situation in housing sales. The photovoltaic industry has passed the high - growth stage, and the growth rate of new installed capacity has slowed down. However, the export of galvanized sheets has increased, with the cumulative export of 10 - tariff - number galvanized sheets from January to September 2025 reaching 10.42 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.61%. [62][64][58] - **Policy factors**: The import and export tariffs of zinc products have been adjusted. For example, the export tariff of 0 zinc is 20%, but the provisional tariff in 2025 is 0%. The export of zinc ingots is subject to a 13% VAT, and the export tax rebate has been cancelled since 2008. [34][35] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Cross - market arbitrage**: Cross - market short - spread is recommended as the inventory difference between domestic and overseas markets is converging, and the fundamentals no longer support the further expansion of the spread. - **Unilateral trading**: For LME zinc, beware of sudden warehouse deliveries due to low inventory. The upside space above the 3,100 - dollar integer mark is limited, so short - allocation on rallies is recommended. For Shanghai zinc, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In Q4, short - allocation is not recommended. Look for short - allocation opportunities above 23,000 yuan/ton or short - term long positions on pullbacks. - **Inter - period trading**: Due to the weak current situation and unclear prospects for expectation repair, the inter - period spread is difficult to widen, maintaining a normal positive market structure, and there are no inter - period arbitrage opportunities. [74][75]