公司跟踪报告 · 食品饮料行业 | 东鹏饮料（股票代码：605499） | | --- | 推荐 维持评级 分析师 迈向平台型公司，再迎布局时点 —— 东鹏饮料动态更新报告 2026 年 02 月 24 日 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 15,839 | 21,108 | 27,085 | 32,964 | | 收入增长率% | 40.63 | 33.27 | 28.31 | 21.71 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 3,327 | 4,547 | 5,914 | 7,271 | | 利润增长率% | 63.09 | 36.69 | 30.06 | 22.93 | | PE | 44.65 | 32.66 | 25.11 | 20.43 | 资料来源：公司公告，中国银河证券研究院 刘光意 ：021-20252650 ：liuguangyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522070002 研究助理：彭潇颖 ： ...

Core Viewpoint - Guosheng Securities has initiated coverage on First Pacific with a "Buy" rating, forecasting steady growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, which is expected to reach $649 million, $708 million, and $767 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.2%, 8.9%, and 8.4% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 is projected at $10,511 million, with a decline to $10,057 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to $10,585 million in 2025, and further growth to $11,220 million in 2026 and $11,958 million in 2027 [2] - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at $501 million, increasing to $600 million in 2024, and continuing to grow to $649 million in 2025, $708 million in 2026, and $767 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.0%, 19.8%, 8.2%, 8.9%, and 8.4% respectively [2] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to rise from $0.12 in 2023 to $0.18 in 2027, while the return on equity is expected to remain stable around 13.6% to 15.3% over the forecast period [2] Business Segments and Growth Drivers - First Pacific has established a diversified business portfolio in consumer food, telecommunications, infrastructure, and natural resources, focusing on key markets like Indonesia and the Philippines [3] - The consumer food segment, particularly through Indofood, is a significant profit driver, contributing $333 million in profit in 2024, which is 42.92% of total profit [6] - The infrastructure segment, led by MPIC, is emerging as a new growth engine, contributing $199 million in profit in 2024, with a 24.78% year-on-year increase [6] - The telecommunications segment, through PLDT, continues to provide stable revenue, while the natural resources segment is positioned to benefit from the strong cycle of non-ferrous metals [7] Strategic Positioning and Market Opportunities - First Pacific's deep engagement in emerging markets like Southeast Asia allows it to capitalize on demographic dividends and consumption upgrades [9] - The company is enhancing its infrastructure capabilities, with MPIC's privatization increasing control over the segment, and expanding its toll road network in Indonesia [10] - The natural resources segment is set to benefit from the strong pricing of gold and copper, with the Silangan project expected to start production in Q1 2026 [10] Valuation and Investment Outlook - According to Guosheng Securities, First Pacific's P/E ratio is projected to be around 5.1 times in 2025, significantly lower than the average P/E ratio of comparable companies at 15.7 times, indicating substantial valuation upside [10][11] - The company's robust profitability and clear growth trajectory are seen as rare strengths in the current market environment, justifying the "Buy" rating [12]

Core Viewpoint - Guosheng Securities initiates coverage on First Pacific (00142) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the company's resilient growth through diversified business collaboration and strong competitive advantages in the Asia-Pacific investment management sector [1] Group 1: Company Overview - First Pacific has over 40 years of development, categorized into four phases: diversified exploration, focus on livelihood, industry integration, and strategic deepening, establishing itself as a leader in cross-sector investment management [1] - The company is primarily focused on the livelihood sector, with four main business areas: consumer food, telecommunications, infrastructure, and natural resources [1] - The management team, led by Lin Fengsheng and Peng Zeren, has extensive cross-industry experience and operates efficiently [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, First Pacific is projected to achieve revenue of $10.057 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.31%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be $600 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.77%, indicating strong profitability and stable performance [1] Group 3: Business Segments - **Consumer Food**: The consumer food segment, centered around Indofood (50.1% economic interest), is a leading player in the instant noodle market, with 2024 revenue of $7.29 billion, a slight decrease of 0.65%, contributing $333 million in profit to First Pacific, up 16.91% [2] - **Infrastructure**: The infrastructure segment, led by MPIC (49.9% economic interest), reported a 2024 revenue of $1.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%, contributing $199 million in profit to First Pacific, up 24.78% [2] - **Telecommunications**: The telecommunications segment, primarily through PLDT (25.6% economic interest), contributed $149 million in profit to First Pacific in 2024, a 3.70% increase, with a focus on digital services and 5G technology for future growth [3] - **Natural Resources**: The natural resources segment, managed by Philex Mining (31.2% economic interest), contributed $5 million in profit to First Pacific in 2024, a decrease of 36.84%, with expectations for significant capacity increases in the future [3]

Company Overview - First Pacific is a Hong Kong-based company that operates through various subsidiaries, including Indofood and Metro Pacific Investments [4][5] - Indofood is recognized as the largest producer of wheat-based instant noodles globally, with its noodle products manufactured under Indofood Consumer Branded Products, which is also publicly listed [4] - Metro Pacific Investments is a holding company based in Manila, with nearly 50% ownership by First Pacific, and it controls significant infrastructure assets, including the largest electricity distributor and the largest non-government-owned toll road operator in the Philippines [5] Financial Reporting - The company reports its financial results biannually, with the current presentation focusing on the first half results [3] - Several operating companies under First Pacific are expected to release their nine-month financial results in the upcoming weeks, indicating ongoing performance tracking within the group [3]

Summary of First Pacific Company Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: First Pacific Company (SEHK:00142) - **Industry**: Investment holding company with interests in various sectors including food, telecommunications, utilities, and natural resources - **Key Assets**: Indofood, Metro Pacific Investments (MPIC), PLDT, PacificLight Power, IndoAgri, Philex Mining Corporation Core Points and Arguments - **Investment Strategy**: Focus on defensive assets in Southeast Asia, particularly in sectors less affected by economic downturns such as utilities and telecommunications [6][7][8] - **Financial Performance**: - First half of 2025 showed an 8% increase in recurring profit and an 11% increase in overall profit due to controlled head office costs [10] - Record high earnings reported in the past four years, with the first half of 2025 exceeding the total profit of 2020 [9][10] - **Dividend Policy**: Progressive dividend policy aimed at increasing per-share distributions annually, contingent on financial performance [10][34] - **Market Position**: - First Pacific's market cap is approximately $3.5 billion, with a low price-to-earnings ratio of less than five times compared to peers [22] - Significant NAV discount of about 7.4% as of September [27] Key Holdings - **Indofood**: - Largest maker of wheat-based instant noodles globally, contributing $1.9 billion to First Pacific's asset value [4][13] - Revenue growth from IDR 40 trillion to over IDR 100 trillion over 14 years, with strong EBIT margins around 25% [14][15] - **Metro Pacific Investments (MPIC)**: - Major electricity distributor in the Philippines, owning 48% of Meralco and 93% of Metro Pacific Tollways Corporation [17][18] - Strong earnings growth, with power generation becoming a significant source of income [19] - **PLDT**: - Largest telecommunications company in the Philippines, providing steady earnings and significant dividends [20] - **PacificLight Power**: - Operator of LNG power plants in Singapore, contributing to dividend income and future growth with new projects [21] Growth Catalysts - **Philex Mining Corporation**: New Salangan mine expected to open next year, potentially increasing earnings significantly [23][24] - **Maya**: Fintech platform with rapid growth, currently the largest consumer fintech app in the Philippines, showing a net interest margin increase from 7% to over 20% [25][26] - **MPIC Valuation**: Potential for revaluation as the market recognizes the value of its assets, particularly Meralco [28][29] Additional Insights - **Geographic Focus**: Majority of assets located in the Philippines (over 50%), with significant investments in Indonesia and Singapore [5] - **Debt Management**: Gross debt of approximately $1.4 billion, with a balanced approach to fixed and floating interest rate borrowings [12] - **Market Conditions**: Confidence in continued earnings growth supported by economic forecasts for the regions of operation [11][29] Conclusion - First Pacific Company is positioned as a stable investment opportunity with a focus on defensive assets in high-growth markets. The company is confident in its ability to deliver continued earnings growth and shareholder value through its diversified portfolio and strategic investments in key sectors.

Group 1 - The first China-ASEAN Baking Industry City Seminar was successfully held in Jakarta, Indonesia, showcasing the technological innovation of the Chinese baking industry and the unique charm of "New National Style" baking in overseas markets [1][3] - The seminar serves as an important initiative for deepening cooperation between the Chinese baking industry and the ASEAN region, with representatives from both countries' baking industries gathering to exchange ideas [3][9] - Notable attendees included leaders from various baking brands such as Dali Group, Panpan Group, and Indofood, highlighting the deep collaboration between China and Indonesia in the baking sector [3] Group 2 - The award-winning product "Light Cloud Cake" from Yishizhidao won the title of "Top Ten Classic Mooncakes in Chinese Baking 2025," recognized for its unique craftsmanship and outstanding quality [6] - "Light Cloud Cake" features an innovative "cloud soft craftsmanship" that breaks traditional dry textures, successfully integrating various flavors and trends to cater to everyday tea time consumption [6][7] - The product aligns with three major trends in the international baking market: health transformation (with low/no sugar demand increasing by 25% annually), miniaturization (mini mooncakes accounting for 41%), and everyday consumption [7] Group 3 - Yishizhidao adopts a differentiated competitive strategy in its Southeast Asian market expansion, focusing on providing comprehensive solutions rather than just traditional baking raw materials [9] - The company emphasizes the importance of respecting local cultural customs and adhering to regulations such as halal certification, which has helped build trust with local partners [9] - The international market for Chinese cuisine is projected to grow from $306.1 billion in 2022 to $445.2 billion by 2027, indicating significant potential for Chinese baking products in overseas markets [9]

Group 1 - The core focus of the company is on the Asian market, with strong core business driving growth and maintaining robust profitability [1] - The company has seen continuous revenue growth from 2021 to 2023, with a projected revenue of $5.03 billion in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for H1 2025 is expected to be $390 million, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 40.8% [1] Group 2 - The company is heavily invested in Indonesia, Singapore, and the Philippines, with major revenue sources from Indofood's consumer food business and MPIC's infrastructure business [1] - Indofood holds over 70% market share in Indonesia's instant noodle market and over 50% in the flour market, indicating its market leadership [1] - The company actively participates in the management of its holdings, balancing mature and growth investments, which contribute significantly to its cash flow [1] Group 3 - The company covers sectors such as food, telecommunications, and infrastructure, benefiting from Southeast Asia's demographic dividend, rapid urbanization, and consumption upgrades [2] - The long-term value reassessment opportunity for its quality asset portfolio is viewed positively, with a projected PE ratio of 4.8-5.2 for 2025 [2] - The estimated valuation range for the company is between HKD 8.13 and 8.81, with a market capitalization of HKD 34.7 billion to 37.5 billion, representing a premium of 25%-35% compared to current levels [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company focuses on the Asian market with a diversified investment strategy, primarily in consumer food, telecommunications, infrastructure, and natural resources, showing strong profitability and growth potential [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - The company has experienced continuous revenue growth from 2021 to 2023, with a projected revenue of $5.03 billion in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for H1 2025 is expected to reach $390 million, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 40.8% [1]. - The net profit margin for H1 2025 is projected at 7.8%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous year, indicating robust earning capacity [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Southeast Asia's macroeconomic growth is driving the expansion of the packaging food market, with the food processing market expected to reach $364 billion by 2024 [2]. - Indofood, a key subsidiary, dominates the Indonesian instant noodle market with over 70% market share and holds more than 50% of the flour market in Indonesia [2]. Group 3: Governance and Investment Strategy - The company actively participates in the governance of its subsidiaries, holding 50.1% of Indofood, 44.6% of MPIC, and 25.6% of PLDT, ensuring strategic alignment and operational efficiency [2]. - The investment strategy balances mature and growth investments, with subsidiaries and joint ventures contributing significantly to cash flow through dividend income [2]. Group 4: Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are $10.51 billion, $11.22 billion, and $11.88 billion, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 4.5%, 6.8%, and 5.8% respectively [3]. - The company anticipates net profits of $790 million, $930 million, and $1.05 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 31.2%, 17.7%, and 13.5% respectively [3]. - The estimated price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for 2025 is projected to be between 4.8 and 5.2, suggesting a fair valuation range of HKD 8.13 to 8.81, representing a premium of 25%-35% over the current price [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time [6]. Core Views - The company focuses on the Southeast Asian market, with core businesses driving growth and maintaining strong profitability [1][4]. - The macroeconomic growth in Southeast Asia, particularly in Indonesia and the Philippines, is expected to expand the packaging food market significantly [2][32]. - The company actively participates in the governance of its subsidiaries, ensuring strategic alignment and operational efficiency [3][42]. Revenue and Profitability - The company has seen continuous revenue growth from 2021 to 2023, with a projected revenue of $10.5 billion in 2025, reflecting a 4.5% growth [5][54]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach $788 million in 2025, a 31.2% increase year-on-year [5][54]. - The company's net profit margin improved to 7.8% in the first half of 2025, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating robust profitability [1][29]. Business Segments - The company operates in four main sectors: consumer food, telecommunications, infrastructure, and natural resources, with a diversified investment strategy [1][9]. - Indofood, the consumer food segment, is a market leader in Indonesia, holding over 70% of the instant noodle market share [2][41]. - The infrastructure segment, represented by MPIC, is expected to benefit from increased government investment in the Philippines [51]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates total revenues of $105.1 billion, $112.2 billion, and $118.8 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of $7.9 billion, $9.3 billion, and $10.5 billion [54][55]. - The gross margin is projected to improve gradually, reaching 36.7% in 2025 and 37.1% by 2027 [54][52]. Valuation - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range for the company between HKD 8.13 and HKD 8.81, indicating a potential premium of 25%-35% compared to the current price [4][62]. - The company is valued at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.8-5.2 times for 2025 [4][62].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The gross asset value as of June is approximately $5.6 billion, with three of the four core holdings being billion-dollar companies [4] - Recurring profit reached a record high of over $375 million, reflecting an 11% increase [7] - Turnover saw a slight increase, while contribution from operations rose by 8% to over $400 million [6] - Interest expenses decreased by 10% to $35 million due to declining interest rates [7] - Recurring EPS increased by 10% [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Indofood reported record high revenues, with sales continuing to hit successive record highs since 2014 [12] - Indofood's EBIT decreased by 1%, while core profit increased by 2% [13] - Metro Pacific's contribution rose by 18%, driven by power and water businesses, with the water business benefiting from tariff increases [17] - PLDT's revenues and EBITDA reached record highs, although core profit faced slight declines due to competitive pressures [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Philippines and Indonesia are identified as the fastest-growing regions, with GDP expected to double over the next twelve years [39] - Foreign exchange rates have shown a historical decline, impacting profit reporting in US dollars [40] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is confident in continuing earnings growth in the medium term, supported by essential services in defensive industries [8] - PLDT is focusing on leveraging its strong market position to enhance customer experience and drive growth despite increased competition [33] - Indofood aims to maintain market share and profitability while addressing input price pressures [13] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth outlook for Indofood despite current consumer confidence challenges in Indonesia [39] - The company anticipates a stable dividend income stream for the full year, supported by expected growth in profitability from NPIC and PLDT [48] - The competitive landscape in the telecommunications sector is expected to remain challenging, but PLDT's established network provides a strong foundation for growth [33] Other Important Information - The company has a strong focus on maintaining investment-grade credit ratings, with stable outlooks from both S&P and Moody's [12] - The upcoming IPO for a subsidiary has been delayed due to internal decision-making processes among cornerstone investors [80] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the impact of the new telco bill on PLDT? - Management indicated that while the new bill opens the market, PLDT's established network and brand position will allow it to leverage growth opportunities despite increased competition [32][33] Question: Which companies are benefiting from AI spending? - Companies involved in data centers and power generation are expected to benefit indirectly from increased AI-related power demand [34][36] Question: What is the outlook for Indofood given weak consumer confidence in Indonesia? - Despite low consumer confidence, the overall economic growth forecast for Indonesia remains positive, supporting Indofood's outlook [39] Question: What is the status of the holding company cash flow and dividend income? - The decline in dividend income was attributed to timing differences, with expectations for recovery in the full year [46][48] Question: What is the expected CapEx for the new power project? - The total project cost for the new 670 MW CCGT plant is estimated at around $900 million, with equity requirements spread over several years [62]