会议助理: 本会议信息仅供参考，不代表任何投资建议。 王风涤 中泰证券机械分析师: 到 30 年，目前这个需求，会超过 200 GW。其实概括为一句话，就是北美缺电的这么一 个情况。它其实就是 AI 的电力需求突增，对应了以及对应着这个北美本地这个电网基建 老化之间的一种矛盾。这也就导致了为什么这个，目前这个功能技术的路径出现了微调。 什么叫微调？就是阶段内这个燃气轮机仍然是主力，但是基于产能、交期以及区域的工序 不平衡等等因素吧，这个行业它处在一个多技术路线动态微调的阶段这个多技术并行，其 实我个人认为有一点像 20 年前后的光伏的 P 型和 N 型的那个时间点，就是它还没有到抉 择的时刻，因为北美目前的这个缺电缺口，我们刚才介绍过。 它其实是大于目前任何单一技术的产能的。即使从这个发电效率、碳排放、什么成本、度 电成本等等等方面。这个，尤其是重燃，它的这个综合表现是最优的。但是，它这个实际 的装机的交付周期，尤其是这个大型的交付周期。已经从 24 年那一段时间的 2.5 年到 3 年拉长到了现在最长的 7 年。这个也是向大家排期到 2029 年的原因。这个供应链受限， 使得大量的增量需求外溢到了目前的其他 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of Weichai Power from an engine manufacturer to an energy solutions provider, capitalizing on the growing demand for reliable power sources in the AI and data center sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The demand for high-reliability backup power sources is surging due to the increasing need for "zero interruption" power supply in data centers, marking a strategic shift in the energy sector [3][8]. - The global AI competition intensifies the need for stable power supply, with multiple factors driving structural changes in the energy industry [8][9]. Group 2: Company Strategy - Weichai Power has strategically positioned its power energy segment as the seventh business unit of Shandong Heavy Industry Group, reflecting a long-term vision initiated over a decade ago [3][4]. - The acquisition of Baudouin in 2009 was a pivotal move, allowing Weichai to enter the high-end power generation market, which is increasingly relevant in the digital age [4][5]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Weichai Power has developed a new platform-based large-bore high-speed engine, which has been successfully integrated into backup power systems for AI data centers, showcasing its technological capabilities [4][6]. - The company has achieved a zero failure rate in continuous 1000-hour full-load operation tests, positioning its products to compete directly with international leaders [6][7]. Group 4: Market Positioning - Weichai Power has successfully penetrated the backup power market for data centers, traditionally dominated by international giants like Cummins and Caterpillar, by focusing on technological innovation and product reliability [6][9]. - The company has reduced its delivery time to 45 days, significantly faster than the six-month average of competitors, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [7][9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Weichai Power is expanding its focus to include solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) and hydrogen internal combustion engines, indicating a commitment to diversifying its energy solutions [9]. - The company recognizes the ongoing relevance of diesel generators in high-reliability scenarios, while also adapting to the growing demand for gas-powered generators in regions with saturated grid capacities [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 55.87 CNY, based on a comparable company PE average valuation of 37 times for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the long-term growth elasticity brought by gas generator-related supporting products, particularly in the context of increasing demand for gas turbines and generators due to the expansion of AI data centers in the U.S. [2][10]. - The company is positioned to enter the exhaust treatment product supply chain for gas generators, which is anticipated to contribute significantly to its profitability in the medium to long term [10]. Financial Forecasts - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.14 CNY, 1.51 CNY, and 1.93 CNY respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 11,018 million CNY in 2023 to 21,502 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.5% [5][11]. - Operating profit is forecasted to increase from 816 million CNY in 2023 to 2,107 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 67.7% in 2023 [5][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to rise from 612 million CNY in 2023 to 1,631 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5][11]. Key Financial Ratios - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 20.2% to 21.7% from 2025 to 2027, while the net margin is projected to improve from 6.3% in 2025 to 7.6% in 2027 [5][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to increase from 14.1% in 2025 to 17.7% in 2027, reflecting improved profitability and efficiency [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 55.87 CNY, based on a comparable company PE average valuation of 37 times for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the long-term growth elasticity brought by gas generator-related supporting products, which will contribute to profitability [2][10]. - The company is positioned to enter the exhaust treatment product supply chain for gas generators, anticipating a significant increase in profitability as overseas clients expand their gas and diesel generator production [10]. Financial Forecasts - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.14 CNY, 1.51 CNY, and 1.93 CNY respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 11,018 million CNY in 2023 to 21,502 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.5% [5][11]. - Operating profit is forecasted to increase from 816 million CNY in 2023 to 2,107 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5][11]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 20.5% in 2023 to 21.7% in 2027, while net profit margin is expected to rise from 5.6% to 7.6% over the same period [5][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to increase from 12.1% in 2023 to 17.7% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability and efficiency [5][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the AIDC sector remains buoyant, with explosive growth in electricity demand and power equipment requirements [1] - The U.S. Department of Energy predicts that AIDC electricity demand will increase from 176 TWh in 2023 to between 325-580 TWh by 2028, raising its share of total U.S. electricity demand from 4.4% to 6.7%-12% [1][8] - The aging U.S. power grid, with 70% of transformers exceeding their 25-year design life and a backup load rate of only 20%, is under pressure to meet the surging electricity demand driven by AI [1][8] Group 2 - North American tech giants are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, with Amazon planning $200 billion in 2026 (up 50% YoY), Google estimating $175-185 billion (up 91%-102% YoY), and Meta projecting $115-135 billion (up 59%-87% YoY) [1] - Domestic internet companies in China, such as Alibaba, plan to invest between 380 billion to 480 billion yuan in AI infrastructure and cloud computing over the next three years, while ByteDance expects to reach 160 billion yuan in capital expenditure by 2026 [1] Group 3 - The transition to 800V HVDC is being accelerated by companies like NVIDIA, which plans to shift to this system by 2027, while domestic manufacturers are expected to achieve initial shipments by the second half of 2026 [2] - The 800V HVDC system is anticipated to improve efficiency, reliability, and reduce copper usage by approximately 45%, addressing the high-density computing power requirements [2] Group 4 - The global liquid cooling market is projected to reach approximately $15 billion (around 105 billion yuan) by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 30% from 2026 to 2028 [6] - The penetration rate of liquid cooling in AI data centers is expected to rise from 14% in 2024 to 40% in 2026, driven by the increasing power demands of chips like Google's TPU and NVIDIA's upcoming Rubin series [6] Group 5 - North America faces a significant electricity supply gap, with AIDC electricity demand expected to grow from 8.9 GWh in 2025 to 190 GWh by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 84% [8] - The supply gap for transformers in North America is estimated at 30%, with Chinese manufacturers holding 60% of global transformer production capacity, indicating a favorable outlook for Chinese transformer exports [9]

Summary of AIDC Gas Turbine, Diesel Power, and Liquid Cooling Insights Industry Overview - The report focuses on the gas turbine market, diesel power generation, and liquid cooling technology within the data center industry, highlighting the current trends and future opportunities in these sectors [1][3]. Key Insights and Arguments Gas Turbine Market - Gas turbines are identified as the preferred solution for power deployment in data centers due to their short deployment cycle, high reliability, and flexible start-stop capabilities, especially in underdeveloped grid areas [1][3]. - The global gas turbine market is highly concentrated, with GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries holding over 80% market share, leading to extended delivery times until 2029 or even 2030 due to limited production capacity [1][4]. - A significant supply-demand gap exists, with global orders exceeding 80 GW by 2025, while current capacity is only about 50 GW, driving expectations for price increases across the industry [4]. Domestic Opportunities - Domestic companies have opportunities in the gas turbine component sector, particularly in hot-end components (like blades and rotors) and cold-end components (like large castings), despite a gap in complete machine manufacturing capabilities [5]. - Companies like Yingliu have entered Siemens' supply chain, marking a breakthrough, while Haomai Technology is a key supplier for the Jiayi gas turbine cylinder [5]. Diesel Power Generation - The diesel power generation market is dominated by international giants such as Caterpillar, MTU, and Cummins, but their willingness to expand production is limited, creating opportunities for domestic firms like Weichai Power and Yuchai Machinery [6]. Liquid Cooling Technology - Liquid cooling technology is gaining traction in data centers, with major investments from companies like Meta and Google, which are significantly increasing their capital expenditures for infrastructure development [7]. - The Nvidia Rubin solution exemplifies advancements in liquid cooling, with single-chip power exceeding 2000 watts and cabinet power exceeding 220 kW, utilizing a fully liquid-cooled design to optimize heat dissipation [2][7]. Competitive Landscape in Liquid Cooling - Companies such as Yingwei have secured high supply permissions and are involved in core component production, while new microchannel cover structures enhance cooling efficiency [8]. - The maturation of self-developed chips by Meta and Google is expected to drive market growth, benefiting companies like Hongchang, Feilong, and Feirongda [8]. - As Nvidia's chip ban is gradually lifted, domestic demand is surging, making companies like Shenling Environment and Gaolan noteworthy solution providers [8]. Additional Important Points - The report emphasizes the long-term potential of renewable energy sources like nuclear, hydro, wind, and solar, but notes their longer construction timelines compared to gas turbines, which can be deployed more rapidly [3]. - The report also highlights the importance of component technology control by upstream suppliers like ABB and Bosch, which affects the supply-demand balance in the diesel power generation market [6].

Core Viewpoint - Tianrun Industrial is positioned to capitalize on the booming demand for large engine generator sets driven by the explosive growth of self-supplied power sources in North America, leveraging its extensive experience and technological expertise in core engine components [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The self-supplied power market is experiencing rigid demand due to the dual challenges of high energy consumption from AI computing and aging North American power grid infrastructure, leading to a golden period for large engine generator sets [2]. - The global data center generator set market is projected to double from $6 billion in 2023 to $12 billion by 2030, indicating a sustained increase in industry prosperity [2]. - Major foreign brands like Cummins and Caterpillar have order backlogs extending to 2028, creating significant opportunities for domestic manufacturers to fill the supply chain gaps [2]. Group 2: Production Capacity and Technological Advancements - Tianrun Industrial has established five large crankshaft production lines, with two additional top-tier lines under construction, expected to be operational by the end of the year, achieving an annual production capacity of 30,000 large crankshafts [3]. - The company is investing nearly 300 million yuan to introduce advanced forging equipment, including the world's largest 1250KJ impact hammer production line, set to be completed by 2026 [3][4]. - The new production line for impact hammers will achieve precision control within 0.005 mm, matching international standards for high-power diesel generator sets [4]. Group 3: Global Expansion and Client Relationships - Tianrun Industrial's global client base, built over decades, includes partnerships with leading manufacturers such as Weichai, Yuchai, Caterpillar, and Cummins, providing a solid foundation for entering the generator set supply chain [5]. - The establishment of a factory in Thailand allows the company to mitigate geopolitical risks and trade barriers while serving high-demand regions like Southeast Asia, North America, and Africa [6]. - The company aims to increase its overseas revenue share from 20% to 30% by 2027, with engine and generator set businesses driving this growth [6]. Group 4: Strategic Business Development - The company is focusing on upgrading its traditional business while simultaneously expanding into emerging sectors such as electric commercial vehicles, air suspension, electric drive axles, and aluminum lightweighting [8]. - The electric steering system, developed in partnership with a South Korean firm, is expected to enter the domestic market and achieve significant growth by 2026 [8]. - The air suspension business is projected to tap into a potential market space of 30 billion to 40 billion yuan as new emission standards are implemented [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The aluminum lightweighting business is set to enhance the company's product offerings, with plans to acquire a 100% stake in a company specializing in aluminum die-casting, expanding its customer base across the automotive industry [10]. - Tianrun Industrial is committed to maintaining a market-oriented approach and enhancing its core competitiveness through continuous investment in both traditional and emerging business sectors [10].

燃气中速机专家交流 20260128 摘要 燃气发电设备市场主要分为中速机和高速机，中速机品牌包括 Himsen、养马等，高速机品牌包括卡特彼勒、MTU 等。业主根据使用 场景、预算和投资回报率选择不同品牌，大型电站倾向于选择单台功率 较大的瓦锡兰或 ABB 设备。 高速机设计寿命一般为 4-5 万小时，中速机为 5-6 万小时，但实际寿命 取决于使用环境和保养情况。高端品牌如 MTU 可通过优质材料实现 10 年内不做大修，中速机通过定期保养可达 40 年或更长时间。 中速机在船舶与陆地应用上无显著差异，但会针对冷却系统等进行特殊 处理以适应海上环境。数据中心等陆用场景中，中速机售价已接近甚至 超过海用设备，因数据中心市场需求增长迅猛。 瓦锡兰公司 2025 年燃气内燃机制交付量约为 510 多台，总装置容量约 为 5.1GW，其中 60%用于船舶，40%用于陆地。过去 12 个月，公司 向陆地市场交付了约 2GW，占总交付量 12%左右。 内燃机制相比 SOFC 会产生更多污染物，但美国环保法规只限制排放标 准，不限制装备类型。燃气轮机可通过后处理系统达到环保要求，但会 增加设备和日常使用成本。往复式柴油 ...

Group 1 - The demand for data center construction is rapidly increasing, while supply is constrained by energy and equipment bottlenecks, particularly in electricity [1] - In the U.S., data center electricity demand is expected to rise to 6.7%-12% of total electricity consumption by 2028, leading to an expanded power supply gap and increased electricity prices [1] - Major players in the gas turbine market, such as General Electric, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, hold 88% market share, but their existing capacity is limited, with orders extending beyond 2028 [1] Group 2 - The supply gap in the global market presents an opportunity for Chinese manufacturers to enter the global supply chain, particularly in the backup power segment where diesel generators play a crucial role [2] - The high-end diesel generator market in China is dominated by Cummins, MTU, and Caterpillar, which together hold approximately 85% market share [2] - The overseas manufacturers face capacity bottlenecks, creating clear opportunities for domestic manufacturers to replace imports and expand internationally [2] Group 3 - The diesel generator manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from increasing overseas demand and profit margins, with companies that have scalable production and overseas distribution channels poised for growth [3] - The demand for core components, such as engine blocks and intelligent control systems, will rise alongside the increase in complete machine orders, benefiting manufacturers with high precision and stable supply capabilities [3] - Companies specializing in overseas market channel development and localized after-sales services will find new growth opportunities as domestic diesel generators expand into international markets [3] Group 4 - The generator concept sector saw active performance in the stock market, with companies like Weichai Heavy Machinery and Power New Science reaching their daily limit, while New Diesel Co. rose over 7% and KOTAI Power increased by over 4% [5]

Summary of Weichai Power (000338.SZ) Conference Call Industry Overview - The global generator industry is experiencing unprecedented growth, with the data center generator market value expanding from approximately US$3-4 billion to around US$10 billion, growing at an annual rate of 25-30% due to price increases and strong volume growth [10][20] - The demand for prime on-site power solutions is primarily in North America and parts of Europe, with forecasts indicating that 20-25% of North American data centers will have prime on-site power by 2028, up from 2-3% currently [10][21] Company Insights Weichai Power (000338.SZ) - Weichai Power is positioned as a significant player in the generator market, particularly in diesel gensets, which are viewed as the ideal backup power solution for data centers due to their fast ramp-up speed [10][20] - The company has a comprehensive positioning across diesel and natural gas engines, as well as fuel cells, allowing it to capture growth opportunities both domestically and internationally [20][44] - Weichai's multi-brand strategy and established overseas partnerships enhance its competitive edge in the geopolitical environment [20] Financial Projections - Market capitalization: Rmb156.9 billion / $22.2 billion - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2027 are as follows: - 2024: Rmb215,690.5 million - 2025: Rmb227,747.6 million - 2026: Rmb248,893.1 million - 2027: Rmb266,213.8 million [6][17] - EBITDA and EPS are also projected to grow significantly, with EPS expected to reach Rmb1.91 by 2027 [11][17] Competitive Landscape - The diesel genset market is highly consolidated, dominated by major players such as Caterpillar (CAT), Cummins (CMI), and MTU, which together hold 75-80% of the market share [10][20] - Weichai and Yuchai are emerging as strong local competitors in China, with Weichai expanding its presence overseas [10][20] Supply Chain Dynamics - Supply constraints have been a significant issue, particularly for gas systems, with lead times extending to 2-3 years. However, the worst of the supply issues for diesel gensets is believed to have passed [20][31] - The expert noted that the demand surge has led to significant price increases, contributing to the tripling of the data center generator market value [20][28] Market Trends - There is a trend towards upsizing generators from the current 2MW standard to 2.5MW and higher, with Yuchai introducing new products that can reach up to 3.6MW [20][41] - The pricing environment is described as stable, but competition is intensifying, particularly for large internet customers [20][45] Future Outlook - Despite a temporary slowdown in the second half of 2025 due to delayed tenders from major internet companies, both Weichai and Yuchai remain optimistic about a strong recovery in 2026, with expected shipment growth of 30-40% year-over-year [20][41] - The overall sentiment is that the slowdown is a deferral of demand rather than a structural decline, with significant orders already secured for 2026 [20][41] Conclusion - Weichai Power is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for data center generators, supported by its strong market presence, financial projections, and strategic partnerships. The company is expected to navigate supply chain challenges effectively and maintain a competitive edge in the evolving market landscape [20][44]