Core Viewpoint - The current interest in artificial intelligence (AI) is characterized as a bubble, with expectations of significant future losses for most investors [2]. Group 1: Historical Context of Technology Bubbles - Numerous technology bubbles have occurred throughout history, with revolutionary innovations often leading to greater speculative bubbles [3]. - Historical examples include the British railway mania, the internet boom, and the SPAC bubble, which share common characteristics that can be applied to the current AI situation [3][4]. Group 2: Characteristics of the Current AI Bubble - The emergence of AI has generated extravagant claims, with proponents suggesting it will solve major global issues and transform economies [9]. - There is a climate of easy money, with low interest rates encouraging speculative investments in AI, similar to past bubbles [11][12]. - Investor optimism is high, with significant disparities between investor sentiment and general public sentiment, driven by economic inequality [19][22]. - A surge in publications and media coverage promoting AI has created a narrative that fuels speculation, reminiscent of past technological manias [25][23]. Group 3: Investment Trends and Valuations - AI startups raised over $200 billion in 2025, with significant capital flowing into private markets rather than public equity [32][33]. - Valuations in the AI sector are extremely high, with companies like OpenAI and Anthropic seeing massive increases in their valuations [41]. - The current market cap to GDP ratio and cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratios indicate that U.S. equities are overpriced, with the CAPE reaching 40 [34][40]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The AI technology remains immature, with many experts doubting its ability to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) in the near future [42][46]. - There is a significant overcommitment of capital in the AI sector, leading to concerns about future returns and profitability [49][53]. - Unscrupulous behavior and dubious accounting practices are present in the AI ecosystem, reminiscent of past bubbles [54][59]. Group 5: Potential Outcomes - The investment boom in AI may be nearing its end, with signs of financial strain among major players and rising costs impacting profitability [65][66]. - Historical patterns suggest that once the bubble bursts, significant corporate bankruptcies and a shakeout phase will follow, leading to a consolidation in the industry [61][62].

| | | Three Months Ended | | Six Months Ended | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | December 31, | | December 31, | | | 2025 | 2024 | 2025 | 2024 | | Revenue: | | | | | | Product | $16,451 | $16,219 | $32,373 | $31,491 | | Service and other | 64,822 | 53,413 | 126,573 | 103,726 | | Total revenue | 81,273 | 69,632 | 158,946 | 135,217 | | Cost of revenue: | | | | | | Product | 3,505 | 3,856 | 6,427 | 7,150 | | Service and other | 22,473 | 17,943 | 43,594 | 34,748 | | Total cost of revenue | 25,978 | 21,799 ...

整理 | 褚杏娟 Clawdbot（现名：Moltbot）火了到国内，社交平台上到处都是部署教学、使用教学和使用展示。国 内的腾讯云、阿里云等也相继宣布上线 Clawdbot 云端极简部署及全套云服务，钉钉也在 Github 上 开源了 Moltbot 接入方式。 项目背后的创始人 Peter Steinberger 也红极一时，他的构建方式成为很多人的学习对象。Peter 之 前就是一位非常出色的开发者，打造了一个被用在超过十亿台设备上的 PDF 框架。后来他经历了严 重的职业倦怠，卖掉股份，整整三年从科技圈消失。今年，他回来了，而他现在的构建方式、正在做 的事情，已经和传统软件开发完全不同。 Peter 近期在"The Pragmatic Engineer"节目中，用近两个小时的时间分享了他的开发经历。他解释 了，为什么他现在发布的代码，大部分自己都不再逐行阅读，而这其实并没什么大不了；他具体是如 何打造了 ClawdBot 这个看起来就像 Siri 未来版本的个人助手的；他如何利用"闭环原则"，高效进行 AI 编程；为什么代码评审已经过时，PR 应该改名叫 Prompt Request 等，他还分享了很 ...

Core Insights - The competition in AI is intensifying as major companies like Tencent and Baidu launch cash red envelope activities in their AI applications, reflecting a return to aggressive marketing strategies reminiscent of the mobile internet boom [1][2] - The integration of social features in AI applications is seen as essential for survival in the competitive landscape, as companies aim to reshape social interactions in the AI era [2][4] Group 1: Company Strategies - Tencent is set to launch a Spring Festival activity on February 1, allowing users to participate in cash red envelope distribution through its AI app "Yuanbao," which also features a social function called "Yuanbao Pai" [1] - Baidu announced a similar cash red envelope activity for its AI application "Wenxin Assistant," starting on January 26 [1] - The return of cash red envelope strategies is viewed as a necessary survival tactic for Chinese internet companies to maintain user engagement and loyalty in the evolving AI landscape [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The shift towards AI-driven social interactions is characterized as a complex ecosystem involving connections between humans and intelligent agents, as well as interactions among intelligent agents themselves [2] - The current competitive environment is marked by a consensus in the tech industry that AI is not optional but a critical race for survival, with resources increasingly directed towards AI development [2] - The expectation for AI technology has evolved beyond mere efficiency improvements to encompass a transformative role in reshaping connections between people, information, and services [4] Group 3: User Impact - The competition among tech giants is expected to lead to significant increases in daily active users (DAU) and a resurgence of user engagement reminiscent of the mobile internet's golden age [3] - The integration of AI into social interactions is anticipated to create new employment opportunities, upgrade industries, and reconstruct consumer scenarios, thus playing a key role in economic recovery and confidence boosting [4] - The ultimate beneficiaries of this competitive landscape are expected to be ordinary users, who will gain from enhanced AI capabilities and improved interaction experiences [4][5]

当地时间 1 月 28 日，微软发布了第二季度财报，明明财报营收暴涨，但是市场并不买账。 财报显示，公司第二季度营收 813 亿美元，同比增长 17%，净利润更是飙升 60% 至 385 亿美元。 其中，微软云业务收入首次突破 500 亿美元大关，达到 515 亿美元，同比增长 26%。 这无疑是一份强劲的财报。然而，市场的反应却是股价在盘后一度下挫超过 8%。 CNBC 分析指出，下跌源于「云增长放缓以及微弱的利润率指引」。具体来看，被视为增长引擎的 Azure 云服务收入同比增长 39%，略低于市场预期的 40% 门槛。 投资者似乎对这家「AI 最大赢家」抱有永不满足的期待，任何增长放缓的迹象都会被放大。 但财报中一个更值得玩味的数据是：微软云的合同积压（Remaining Performance Obligation）暴增 110%，达到惊人的 6250 亿美元。 据 The Information 报道，其中约 45%（约 2812 亿美元）是与 OpenAI 的交易驱动的。这意味着，微软未来收入的很大一部分，已经和 OpenAI 的发展深 度捆绑。 01 深度绑定的「共生」与「风险」 微软与 Ope ...

在此背景下，中国互联网公司确实不能掉队，也掉不起队。社交是中国互联网公司赖以生存的护城河， 若无法在AI时代重塑社交入口，过去二十年积累的账户体系与用户黏性，极有可能在新的计算范式下 被迅速瓦解。 事实上，在全球政治经济充满不确定性的当下，科技界已形成一种默契共识：AI不是一种选择，而是 一场不容掉队的生死赛跑。从硅谷到北京，从大模型到底层算力，所有资源都在向AI倾斜。腾讯、百 度选择"红包轰炸"，正是在用"最中国"的方式，试图缩短用户从"知道AI"到"依赖AI"的教育曲线。 我们当然乐见更多大厂加入这场竞速。量级的资源投入，往往才能催生真正改变范式的交互体验。当 AI学会发红包、陪聊，甚至参与到复杂的春节社交关系链中时，它才真正完成了从"数字工具"向"数字 生命"的跃迁。 对于中国网民而言，红包大战、千万级DAU（日活跃用户数量）的跳跃、科技巨头为争抢用户而展开 的诚意竞争，正是移动互联网黄金时代的标志性符号。那段岁月里，科技进步意味着更便宜的打车费、 更便捷的支付，以及无数个体借助技术红利改变命运的故事。 陈白丨文 随着更多大厂的加入，2026年的AI（人工智能）竞争正在变得空前激烈。 1月25日，腾讯宣 ...

今日市场分化明显，白酒、地产等传统蓝筹大涨，带领上证50指数大幅冲高，半导体、芯片等科技题材 走弱，科创50、创业板指跌幅明显。市场全天3.2万亿，较上个交易日放量超2000亿，两市下跌个股超 3500只。 据券商中国，值得注意的是，市场迎来了三大变局信号： 展望后市，东方证券认为，短期来看，股指震荡格局未变，但盘中受到调控迹象明显，大涨大跌皆不现 实，沪综指有望继续震荡上行，但春节前空间不大。 从个股看，两市上涨1803家，下跌3566家，107家涨幅持平。两市共89股涨停，共36股跌停。 截至收盘，沪指涨0.16%报4157.98点，成交14858亿元；深成指跌0.30%报14300.08点，成交17442亿 元。创业板指下跌0.57%，报3304.51点。 资金动向 今日主力资金重点抢筹广告营销、软件开发、白酒等板块，主力净流入居前的个股包括蓝色光标、贵州 茅台、科大讯飞等。 要闻回顾 1、世界黄金协会：2026年一季度中国市场黄金投资需求强劲态势或将延续 一是地产股和白酒齐飞，当板块轮动到地产和白酒这类补涨资产时，市场的结构性波动可能会加大。 二是包括黄金在内的大宗商品近期持续飙升，同样反映流动性的虚 ...

Core Insights - Jerry Tworek, a key figure in AI model reasoning, has founded a new company named Core Automation, focusing on "continuous learning" in AI models [1][5][7] - The company aims to raise between $500 million to $1 billion to develop a new type of AI model that can learn continuously from new data and experiences [1][8][10] Company Background - Jerry Tworek has a strong theoretical and mathematical background, having completed a master's degree in mathematics and worked in quantitative research before joining OpenAI in 2019 [3][5] - At OpenAI, he played a significant role in developing major models like o1, o3, GPT-4, ChatGPT, and Codex, pushing the boundaries of AI from mere generation to reasoning capabilities [3][5] Industry Context - The current mainstream AI models are primarily trained once and deployed, which limits their ability to adapt to new situations [5][10] - Continuous learning is seen as a solution to reduce costs and improve efficiency, allowing models to learn from real-world experiences rather than relying solely on static data [10][12] - The concept of continuous learning is gaining traction, with other companies and academic institutions, such as Google Research, also exploring this area [15][17] Future Outlook - The industry consensus suggests that achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will require models to possess continuous learning capabilities, which is a key focus for Tworek's new venture [12][15] - There is a growing belief that 2026 could mark a significant advancement in continuous learning technologies [19]

Core Points - The CoreWeave class action lawsuit has been initiated against CoreWeave, Inc. and its executives for alleged violations of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the Class Period from March 28, 2025, to December 15, 2025 [1] - CoreWeave is positioned as an AI cloud computing company and had announced a significant deal worth up to $11.9 billion with OpenAI shortly before its IPO [2] - The lawsuit claims that CoreWeave overstated its ability to meet customer demand and failed to disclose risks associated with reliance on a single third-party data center supplier, which could negatively impact revenue [3] Financial Impact - On October 30, 2025, Core Scientific announced it did not receive enough shareholder votes to approve its merger with CoreWeave, leading to a more than 6% drop in CoreWeave's share price [4] - Following a revenue guidance reduction on November 10, 2025, due to delays from a third-party data center developer, CoreWeave's shares fell over 16% [5] - A December 15, 2025 article revealed further delays in data center delivery, causing an additional 3.4% decline in CoreWeave's share price [6] Legal Process - Investors who purchased CoreWeave securities during the Class Period can seek appointment as lead plaintiff in the class action lawsuit, representing the interests of all class members [7] - The lead plaintiff can choose a law firm to litigate the case, and participation as lead plaintiff is not required to share in any potential recovery [8]

从更长的脉络看，她将这一轮投资类比为 "基础设施级别"的周期——像铁路、汽车、电力那样，可能把资 本开支占比推高到GDP的12%。 这种 "加速"的结构性变化，已经在多个方向出现征兆：一是AI基础设施扩张迅猛，数据中心支出已较 ChatGPT出现前放大2.5倍，并有望在2030年达到每年1.4万亿美元；二是金融科技重构正在发生，稳定币 总规模突破3000亿美元，传统金融面临"错位与震荡"；三是生产率本身正在重估，比如Tether去年"人均产 出"超过5000万美元，这种极致人效背后是新型资产结构与系统效率的迭代。 所以，当外界担心 AI是否会"取代人"，ARK给出的回应更像一次反问：在今天，你可以问ChatGPT一个问 题，就可能启动一门新生意，这是否正是创业最好的时代？ 而从多组学与基因编辑，到核电与可重复使用火箭，从 Robotaxi到自动化物流 ……" 木头姐 " 所描述的， 早已不是一条主线的故事，而是一个系统重构的轮廓。当这些技术平台开始彼此耦合，增长不再是缓坡式的 延展，而可能是台阶式的跃迁。 "木头姐" 凯茜 ·伍德（Cathie Wood） 最近带着团队发布了 《 Big Ideas 2026 ...