日前津巴布韦锂矿出口叫停问题传闻引发市场关注，美股锂矿概念盘前出现变动，Sigma Lithium、美 国雅保、智利矿业化工、Lithium Argentina AG等相关企业的盘前交易出现变化。 华西证券2026年2月25日发布的有色金属行业海外季报显示，WesCEF的锂业务在2025年下半年贡献600 万澳元收益，主要得益于矿山和选矿厂的强劲表现以及下半年价格的上涨，预计2026财年锂辉石精矿产 量将接近此前预期的16万吨至18万吨区间的上限。奎纳纳氢氧化锂精炼厂于2025年7月产出首批产品， 目前因间歇性异味问题影响产能爬坡进程，相关工程预计2026年中期完成。华西证券2026年2月4日发布 的海外季报提到，Pilbara Minerals 2025年第四季度锂精矿总产量为20.8万吨，环比减少7%，总销量为 23.2万吨，环比增长8%，按到岸价格计算的单位运营成本环比上涨11%至470美元／吨。东吴证券2026 年1月29日发布的电力设备行业跟踪周报显示，1月21日雅保拍卖5.49%锂辉石精矿1.67万吨，成交价为 含税1.69万元/吨，同期碳酸锂价格出现上涨，产业链加速调价，新签订单已反应涨价情况。 ...

February 17, 2026 05:00 PM GMT metal&ROCK | Europe Lithium Overdone? A surge in ESS deployment has driven a material shift in lithium demand and prices since mid-2025. However, with prices tripling, weakening EV sales and more producers looking at supply responses, we think the move is likely overdone, with some downside from here (MSe $15k/t 2H26). Key Takeaways A material demand shift in ESS: The shift from the feed-in tariff model to market pricing in China's renewable power market in mid-2025 unlocked p ...

S&P/ASX 200 closed lower on Tuesday (February 24, 2026) as Australian shares struggled for momentum, with losses in heavyweight banks offsetting gains in miners. Investors remained cautious ahead of key domestic data and sought clarity on the latest tariff salvo.The S&P/ASX 200 closed down just 3.70 points to 9,022.30. According to the ASX website, over the last five days, the index has gained 0.71% and is currently 1.05% off of its 52-week high. The bottom-performing stocks in this index were ARB CORPORAT ...

Group 1: Real Estate Market - The preliminary clearance rate for property auctions in Australia reached 73.7%, the highest level since last year's spring selling season, up from 69.7% the previous week [1] - Sydney's clearance rate was 79.6%, the highest since August of last year, with 602 properties auctioned, a 31% increase from the previous week [1] - Melbourne's clearance rate was lower at 67.9%, with 638 properties auctioned [1] - Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, and Perth also showed strong clearance rates, with Brisbane at 69%, Adelaide at 83.6%, Canberra at 69.7%, and Perth at 75%, all higher than the same period last year [1] Group 2: Superannuation Industry - Major industry funds like AustralianSuper, Australian Retirement Trust, and Aware Super experienced significant member outflows in FY2025, with AustralianSuper facing a net redemption of over AUD 250 million [3][4] - Aware Super and Australian Retirement Trust lost AUD 400 million and AUD 1.3 billion respectively due to member exits [4] - Retail wealth platforms like HUB24 and Netwealth attracted substantial inflows, with HUB24 gaining AUD 7.5 billion and Netwealth AUD 4 billion during FY2025 [6] Group 3: Education Sector - Tuition fees for Sydney's top 10 private schools have risen significantly, with an average increase of 6.7% last year, yet most schools saw a decline in academic performance [10] - The Scots College remains the most expensive private school in New South Wales, with fees reaching AUD 52,770 for Year 12 in 2026, a 6.5% increase [10] - Several schools, including Kambala and Wenona, reported their worst rankings in a decade, despite fee increases [10] Group 4: Wine Industry - UBS downgraded Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) to "sell," citing deteriorating risk-reward dynamics amid industry headwinds [12][13] - TWE's stock fell 7.97% to AUD 5.08 following the downgrade, with the company facing challenges in its Penfolds and Americas businesses [14] - UBS lowered TWE's earnings forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027, predicting no dividends due to debt ratio concerns [13][15] Group 5: Mining and Resources - The Resourcing Tomorrow Hong Kong 2026 event will take place in April 2026, focusing on the evolving landscape of the mining and resources sector [18][19] - The event aims to address the changing dynamics of resource investment, emphasizing project feasibility and supply chain security [19][20] - Over 250 high-level participants, including representatives from major mining companies and financial institutions, are expected to attend [21][24] Group 6: Office Market - Australia's office vacancy rate has reached its highest level since 1996, climbing from 15.2% in August 2025 to 15.9% in January 2026 [36][37] - Major cities like Sydney and Melbourne are experiencing significant increases in vacancy rates, with Melbourne's rate rising to 19% [37] - Despite current challenges, there are signs of recovery in demand for high-quality office spaces, with expectations of reduced supply supporting market recovery [38]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper's acquisition of SolGold is progressing, with key shareholder DGR Global expressing support for the cash offer of 28 pence per share, pending no better proposals [3][6]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Jiangxi Copper is advancing its acquisition of SolGold, with DGR Global indicating support for the 28 pence per share cash offer, which will be voted on at the shareholder meeting on February 23, 2026 [3][6]. - DGR Global's board has stated that they will support the acquisition unless a better offer is received, emphasizing that their current stance may change if circumstances evolve [3][6]. - The acquisition proposal has been raised from an initial offer of 26 pence per share, which was rejected by SolGold's board, indicating a shift from exploratory discussions to a more formal acquisition process [6]. Group 2: SolGold's Core Assets - SolGold's primary asset is the Cascabel copper-gold project in Ecuador, recognized as one of the most significant undeveloped copper-gold mines globally [4][5]. - The Cascabel project contains billions of tons of ore, with substantial copper and gold resources, and is expected to have a mine life of several decades with potential annual production at levels comparable to major international mines [5]. Group 3: Market Implications - DGR Global's public support is seen as a crucial factor that could enhance the likelihood of the acquisition's approval, providing Jiangxi Copper with a significant advantage in the acquisition process [3]. - The focus of market participants will be on the outcome of the shareholder vote on February 23, 2026, and whether any competing bids or higher offers will emerge [6].

Group 1 - The rare metal ETF (561800) has seen a recent decline, with the China Rare Metals Theme Index (930632) dropping by 4.20% as of February 5, 2026, while the ETF has experienced a 13.04% increase over the past month [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Metals Theme Index account for 59.71% of the index, with companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and Ganfeng Lithium among the leaders [1] - The rare metal ETF has recorded a net inflow of 111.43 million yuan as of February 4, 2026, with a total of 16.18 million yuan attracted over the last ten trading days [1] Group 2 - Lithium concentrate prices have reached multi-year highs, with Pilbara Minerals reporting an average price of $1,161 per ton for Q4 2025, reflecting a 56% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 66% year-over-year increase [2] - The demand for lithium is improving due to a recovery in market conditions, reduced expectations for idle capacity, and increased purchasing willingness from downstream customers [2] - The CS Rare Metal Index tracked by the rare metal ETF primarily allocates to lithium carbonate, minor metals, and rare earths, with lithium carbonate comprising 30%-40% of the index, making it a key investment tool for market participants [2]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more during the specified period [21]. Core Insights - The operational performance of Pilbara Minerals in Q4 2025 met expectations, reflecting ongoing improvements in mining efficiency and strategic initiatives aimed at maximizing ore processing capacity [1]. - The total mining volume increased from 7.7 million tons in the previous quarter to 8.1 million tons, indicating effective operational measures and a shift towards self-operated mining [1]. - The average expected actual selling price for lithium concentrate was $1,161 per ton (CIF, SC5.2), representing a 56% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 66% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company maintained a robust balance sheet with a cash balance of AUD 954 million and an undrawn credit facility of AUD 625 million as of December 31, 2025 [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Lithium Concentrate Production and Sales - In Q4 2025, lithium concentrate production totaled 208,000 tons, a 7% decrease quarter-on-quarter but an 11% increase year-on-year [2]. - Total sales of lithium concentrate reached 232,000 tons, an 8% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 14% increase year-on-year [2]. - The lithium recovery rate was 75.8%, and the company implemented additional crushing capacity to ensure operational continuity during periods of increased wear [2]. 2. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of AUD 373 million in Q4 2025, a 49% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 73% increase year-on-year [7]. - Operating cash profit was AUD 166 million, driven by price increases and ongoing cost optimization [7]. - Capital expenditures for Q4 2025 were AUD 45 million in cash terms, with a focus on mine development and infrastructure [8]. 3. Upstream Development Projects - The company is strategically positioning itself during the lithium market downturn to maintain operational capability and performance expectations [9]. - The Ngungaju processing plant is under evaluation for potential restart, with preparations including crusher upgrades [11]. - The P2000 feasibility study is ongoing, assessing the potential expansion of the Pilgangoora project to approximately 2 million tons per year [12]. 4. Chemical Business Strategy - The chemical business strategy focuses on maintaining long-term growth options within the lithium value chain [14]. - The midstream demonstration plant project in Australia was completed in Q4 2025, with updates on commissioning expected soon [16]. - The joint venture with POSCO for downstream production of lithium hydroxide is progressing, with production lines successfully meeting commercial standards [17].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more during the specified period [22]. Core Insights - The operational performance of Pilbara Minerals in Q4 2025 met expectations, reflecting ongoing improvements in mining efficiency and strategic initiatives aimed at maximizing ore processing capacity [1]. - The total mining volume increased from 7.7 million tons in the previous quarter to 8.1 million tons, indicating effective operational measures and a shift towards a self-operated mining model [1]. - The average expected actual selling price for lithium concentrate was $1,161 per ton (CIF, SC5.2), representing a 56% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 66% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company maintained a robust balance sheet with a cash balance of AUD 954 million and an undrawn credit facility of AUD 625 million as of December 31, 2025 [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Lithium Concentrate Production and Sales - In Q4 2025, lithium concentrate production totaled 208,000 tons, a 7% decrease quarter-on-quarter but an 11% increase year-on-year [2]. - Total sales of lithium concentrate reached 232,000 tons, an 8% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 14% increase year-on-year [2]. - The lithium recovery rate for the quarter was 75.8%, despite increased ore processing [2]. 2. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of AUD 373 million in Q4 2025, a 49% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 73% increase year-on-year [7]. - Operating cash profit was AUD 166 million, driven by price increases and ongoing cost optimization [7]. - Capital expenditures for the quarter were AUD 45 million in cash terms, with a focus on mine development and infrastructure [8]. 3. Upstream Development Projects - The company is strategically positioning itself during the lithium market downturn to maintain operational capability and performance expectations [9]. - The Ngungaju processing plant is under evaluation for potential restart, with preparations ongoing for upgrades [11]. - The P2000 feasibility study is progressing, with results expected in Q1 2026, focusing on expanding production capacity [12]. 4. Chemical Business Strategy - The chemical business strategy emphasizes maintaining long-term growth options within the lithium value chain, including expanding downstream markets [14][15]. - The midstream demonstration plant project in Australia was completed in Q4 2025, with updates on commissioning expected soon [16]. - The joint venture with POSCO for downstream lithium hydroxide production continues to show technical strength, despite market challenges [17].

Core Viewpoint - The recovery in lithium prices is primarily benefiting mining assets and investment returns rather than evenly distributing across the lithium salt processing segment [5][10]. Group 1: Company Performance Forecasts - Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium both released performance forecasts for 2025, indicating a shift from significant losses in 2024 to profitability [3]. - Ganfeng expects a net profit of 1.1 billion to 1.65 billion yuan for 2025, recovering from a loss of 2.074 billion yuan in the previous year [6]. - Tianqi anticipates a net profit of 369 million to 553 million yuan, compared to a loss of 7.905 billion yuan in the same period last year [8]. Group 2: Profit Contribution Analysis - Both companies' profit increases are heavily concentrated in the fourth quarter, closely linked to improvements in upstream resource rights and related investment returns [4]. - Ganfeng's fourth-quarter contribution is estimated to be between 1.074 billion and 1.624 billion yuan, which is crucial for the overall annual results [7]. - Tianqi's fourth-quarter net profit is projected to be between 189 million and 373 million yuan, also significantly impacting the annual profit recovery [8]. Group 3: Investment and Asset Performance - Ganfeng attributes its profit reversal to changes in financial assets and investment returns, including a fair value change gain of approximately 1.03 billion yuan from its holdings in Pilbara Minerals [8]. - Tianqi's profit recovery is supported by increased investment returns from its joint venture SQM, along with gains from currency exchange and reduced asset impairment losses [12][13]. Group 4: Industry Comparison - The recovery in the lithium industry is not uniform; differences arise from resource endowments, cost mechanisms, and production capacity realization [14]. - Yahua Group expects a net profit of 600 million to 680 million yuan for 2025, attributing improvements to rising lithium salt prices and increased sales in the latter half of the year [14]. - Cangge Mining forecasts a net profit of 3.7 billion to 3.95 billion yuan, driven by improvements in both potassium chloride and lithium carbonate businesses [16]. Group 5: Challenges in the Industry - Some lithium salt companies are still facing losses; Shengxin Lithium Energy anticipates a net loss of 600 million to 850 million yuan for 2025 due to industry supply-demand dynamics and exchange losses [16]. - Tibet Mining expects a net loss of 20 million to 40 million yuan, indicating that price rebounds are insufficient to improve current financial statements [17].

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium's stock experienced a significant decline of over 8% in early trading, currently down 6.77% at HKD 63.3, with a trading volume of HKD 440 million [1] Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of between CNY 1.1 billion and CNY 1.65 billion for the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 153.04% to 179.56%, compared to a loss of CNY 2.074 billion in the same period last year [1] - A notable contribution of approximately CNY 1.03 billion to profit is attributed to fair value changes from the fluctuation in the stock price of Pilbara Minerals, while the non-recurring net profit is expected to show a loss between CNY 300 million and CNY 600 million [1] Market Outlook - Dongwu Securities reported that the performance for Q4 2025 is expected to be strong, with non-recurring net profit slightly exceeding expectations; lithium salt shipments are projected to remain stable quarter-on-quarter, with price increases contributing positively [1] - For 2026, the company is anticipated to achieve lithium salt shipments of 210,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with self-supply resources estimated at 130,000 to 140,000 tons; assuming a lithium carbonate price of CNY 150,000 per ton, this could contribute over CNY 9 billion in profit [1]