市场普遍预计商品价格将成为12月通胀回升的主要来源。新车、家具和服装等类别在促销季结束后，价格反弹的概率较高。租金相关指标可能仍偏温和。 BLS采用6个月滚动调查来计算租金和业主等值租金（owners' equivalent rent），该机构已明确表示，2025年10月使用的递推估算方法带来的影响，要到2026 年4月重新纳入对应住房调查样本时，才能完全修正。 在技术层面，BLS是基于11月采集样本的6个月价格变化的六次方根，来估算租金和业主等值租金的单月变动，并以10月的指数水平为基础推算当月指数。 这种做法在非常时期具有必要性，但也放大了后续数据"回调"的可能。 如果暂时剔除政府停摆带来的干扰，一些经济学家认为，通胀本身的上行压力并未消失。11月以来，关税成本逐步向终端价格传导的迹象更为明显，这一趋 势在停摆发生前就已存在。目前企业大体消化了部分进口关税，但并非全部。 从行业分布看，商品价格的反弹幅度可能快于服务业。服务价格在12月同样被看好回升，尤其是住宿、机票等对季节变化更敏感的项目。富国银行的分析指 出，假日因素往往会放大短期价格波动，但并不改变中期通胀的整体轮廓。 进入年底，美国通胀走势再次成为 ...

美国财政部长贝森特周二对媒体表示，一旦美国能够持续地将通胀率降回2%的水平，就可以重新考虑美联储目前设定的2%通 胀目标。 贝森特在接受采访时说： "一旦我们回到2%——我认为这个目标已经近在眼前——我们就可以展开讨论：设定一个区间是否会更明智？一旦通胀重新锚定在目标 水平，我们就可以讨论是否采用区间目标。" 美国财政部长贝森特支持在通胀率稳步回落至2%之后，重新审视美联储的这一通胀目标。贝森特建议，一旦通胀目标重新锚 定，可以讨论将其转变为一个区间，例如1.5%-2.5%，或者1%-3%。贝森特承认，民众对生活成本的担忧，表示"我们理解美国 人民正深陷痛苦"，并将其归咎于拜登政府时期的物价高企。 "我们理解，美国民众正在承受压力。" 他提出，这种讨论可能围绕将通胀目标调整为1.5%至2.5%，或者1%至3%。 他说， "这是一个非常值得深入讨论的话题。" 美联储决策层在2012年正式、公开确立了目前的2%通胀目标，这一目标也被全球许多央行所采用。贝森特表示，追求"精确到 小数点后一位的确定性本身就很荒谬"。但他同时指出，如果在通胀仍高于目标水平时就调整目标，可能会给外界留下这样的印 象：只要通胀高于某个水平 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, indicated that discussions about adjusting the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target could occur once inflation is consistently brought back to that level, suggesting a potential range of 1.5% to 2.5% or 1% to 3% as more reasonable targets [2][3] Group 1 - Becerra emphasized the importance of maintaining policy credibility before re-anchoring inflation expectations, acknowledging that American households are under financial pressure [3] - He attributed the current high price levels to the Biden administration and noted that inflation is beginning to decline, partly due to falling rents, which he believes were previously driven up by an increase in illegal immigration [4] - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed a year-over-year increase of 2.7% for November, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose by 2.8% over the past 12 months [2]

Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of September 2025, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 2.8% and core CPI at 3.0%. The Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge The Fed is on record as using PCE data as its primary inflation gauge, with a 2% target rate. Elsewhere, the Fed has ...

摘要今日周五(12月5日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4218美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报4218.04 美元/盎司，涨幅0.27%，最高上探至4218.36美元/盎司，最低触及4194.23美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金 短线偏向看涨走势。 今日周五(12月5日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4218美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报4218.04美元/ 盎司，涨幅0.27%，最高上探至4218.36美元/盎司，最低触及4194.23美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线 偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 周五即将发布的9月个人消费支出价格指数(PCE)报告——美联储最倚重的通胀指标——其重要性愈加凸 显。市场正迫切期待这份迟来但可靠的"硬数据"，能为当前纷乱的经济预期提供一次关键的检验：是印 证弥漫的悲观情绪，还是证明市场的感知再度出现了偏差。 2、"投资者之所以如此关注周五的PCE数据，是因为那些'软数据'(基于调查的数据)最近表现得极不准 确，"Nationwide的首席市场策略师Mark Hackett指出。"当前的困惑在于，我们得到的数据要么滞后， 要么不完整。PCE数据正开始填补这片空白——我们需要一个清晰的指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent movements in the gold market indicate a strong upward trend, with a notable five consecutive weeks of gains, despite some fluctuations during the week [1]. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's current policy under Chairman Powell focuses on "risk management," with recent interest rate cuts exhibiting a "hawkish" characteristic, putting pressure on the gold market [2]. - There are concerns about potential "forced rate hikes" in 2026 if current rate cuts do not align with economic trends, reflecting market uncertainty regarding long-term policy paths [2]. - Upcoming speeches from multiple Federal Reserve officials are expected to reveal a divided stance on monetary policy, with some advocating for further rate cuts while others oppose them [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Data - Market attention is shifting back to inflation data, particularly the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, with economists predicting a month-over-month increase of 0.32% and a year-over-year increase of 2.8% for August [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The current gold market is in a clear upward trend, having transitioned from a corrective phase to a primary upward cycle, with the key turning point at 3120 [8]. - The five-wave upward structure initiated from 3120 has been identified, with the current phase being the core upward wave (5-wave 3), characterized by significant price increases and strong continuation [9]. - The internal structure of the current upward wave (5-wave 3) is being closely monitored, with recent movements indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend if key support levels are maintained [10][15].

Group 1 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat in June, with a revised increase of 0.3% in May, indicating the mildest annual increase since September last year at 2.3% year-on-year [1] - Core PPI, excluding food, energy, and trade services, also remained flat, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, marking the smallest increase since the end of 2023 [1] - Service costs played a crucial role in suppressing inflation, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, largely driven by a 4.1% drop in travel accommodation prices and a 2.7% decline in air passenger service prices, the largest drop since May of last year [1] Group 2 - The report is significant for the Federal Reserve as some components of the PPI are directly used to calculate the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is a key inflation indicator for the Fed [2] - Current market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in the July meeting to observe the actual impact of trade policies [2] - There are signs of tariff-related inflation in the PPI, with durable goods costs rising significantly for two consecutive months, marking the largest cumulative increase in three years [2]

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. showed no change month-over-month in June, with a year-over-year increase of 2.3%, the smallest since September of the previous year [1][2] - Core PPI, excluding food and energy, remained flat month-over-month and increased by 2.6% year-over-year, marking the lowest annual growth rate since the end of 2023 [1][2] Inflation Trends - The decline in travel-related service costs offset the rise in goods prices, indicating a mixed inflationary environment [1] - Economists expect inflation to gradually rise as more companies attempt to pass on increased trade costs to consumers, despite current moderate inflation levels [2] Price Movements - Core commodity prices, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3%, while energy costs rose significantly, particularly natural gas prices for electricity generation, which saw the largest increase in three years [3] - Service costs decreased by 0.1%, primarily due to a 4.1% drop in travel accommodation prices and a 2.7% decline in airline passenger service prices, the largest drop since May 2024 [3] Future Indicators - The PCE report, which is closely monitored as it includes components used to calculate the inflation metrics favored by the Federal Reserve, is expected to be released later this month [4]

Core Insights - The growth rate of housing prices in the U.S. is slowing down, primarily due to a decline in hotel prices [1] - Housing prices are a significant factor in assessing overall inflation, but the Federal Reserve uses a different index, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), which has a lower weight for housing compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] - The upcoming Producer Price Report is expected to provide additional reference information for categories directly included in the PCE, with the PCE report to be released later this month [1]

Core Insights - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index in the U.S. increased by 0.1% month-over-month in May, indicating a slight rise in inflation [1] - The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% month-over-month, suggesting underlying inflation pressures [1] - The PCE price index is a key inflation measure closely monitored by the Federal Reserve for monetary policy decisions, highlighting its significance in the economic landscape [1]