转自：人民日报 对话要产生实效，必须秉持建设性，以解决问题为导向。从日内瓦到吉隆坡，中美团队先后开展5轮磋 商，进程并非一帆风顺，但整体来看，双方都重视发挥中美经贸磋商机制作用，朝着解决问题的方向共 同努力。回顾这5轮磋商，每一次积极信号的释放，都为两国企业乃至全球市场注入暖流。双方应珍惜 已有成果，落实既成共识，并继续本着平等、尊重、互惠的原则推进对话，不断压缩问题清单，拉长合 作清单。 妥处分歧，既要出现问题时善加管控，更应平时多架桥梁，促进相向而行。近期，中美合作组织了一系 列工商交流活动，通过面对面沟通增进互信、深化合作，受到两国企业界欢迎。人民相亲是中美关系的 坚韧纽带。双方应多栽花、少栽刺，通过扩大人文交流增进理解，让真实声音穿透偏见迷雾，让尊重与 共识在交往中生根发芽。 历史一再证明，中美之间没有迈不过去的坎，没有管控不了的问题，只要坚持相互尊重、和平共处、合 作共赢，两国完全可以构建稳定、可持续的建设性关系。从长远看，中国的发展振兴与美国实现"再次 伟大"并行不悖。秉持求同存异的精神，以对话取代对抗，以合作化解分歧，以大局驾驭矛盾，中美两 个大国完全可以相互成就、共同繁荣。 大国能否妥善处理分 ...

何咏前说，美单边关税违反世贸组织规则，破坏国际经贸秩序，扰乱全球产业链供应链，损 害美国企业和消费者利益，损人不利己。中方敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，取消相关措施。 中方愿与美方在相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢原则基础上，通过平等对话磋商解决各自关 切。倘若美方执意损害中方权益，中方将坚决采取必要措施，坚定维护自身权益。 商务部新闻发言人何咏前25日在回答关于美宣布对部分中国半导体产品加征301关税的有关提 问时说，中方注意到有关情况，已通过中美经贸磋商机制向美方提出严正交涉。中方不认同 美方301调查的所谓结论，坚决反对美对华半导体产品加征301关税。 SFC 在商务部当天举行的例行新闻发布会上，有记者问：美东时间12月23日，美国贸易代表办公 室发布针对中国半导体政策301调查结果，宣布对部分中国半导体产品加征301关税，目前税 率为0%，18个月后，即2027年6月再提高税率。商务部对此有何评论？ 编辑丨曾静娇 见习编辑 林芊蔚 来源丨新华社 ...

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 一、行情回顾与操作建议 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 据 CFTC，截至11月 4日当周，CFTC美棉仅期货非商业持仓基金多头 78625 （+3267）张，连续第二周增加，空头 123469（-6936）张，连续第三周 减少，ICE 总持仓 30 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但近日美国市场对于美豆出口乐观前景出现质疑，疲软的出口装 | | 豆粕 | | 船同比数据，导致美豆高位陷入整理。本周最新大豆及豆粕库存环比增加，短期供 | | | 短线偏多震荡 | 应充足，但本周压榨量预计环比小幅下降，或减轻豆粕周度供应压力。美农 12 月 | | ★ | | 报告公布前夕，豆粕暂维持偏多震荡格局，但追多操作需谨慎，投机参与为主。关 | | | | 注报告内容及南美大豆种植天气后续进展。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高，消费淡季下现 | | 菜粕 | | 货降价去库。基本面暂无大波动预期。远期供需层面偏强，但近端港口库存同比偏 | | | 短线偏多震荡 | 高存在压力，主力合约看多追多谨慎。受豆粕端天气升水炒作及低进口预期，远月 | | ★ | | 菜粕暂维持震荡偏多行情对待。关注美农 12 月报告及中加贸易后续进展。 | | | 11 | 月马棕榈油前 30 日出口数据维持弱势，产量环比增加较少，好于市场预期。欧 | | 棕榈油 | | ...

数据显示，11月份，在13个中国制造业PMI分项指数中，生产指数、新订单指数、新出口订单指数、在 手订单指数、采购量指数、进口指数、主要原材料购进价格指数、出厂价格指数、从业人员指数、供应 商配送时间指数和生产经营活动预期指数均较上月有所上升，升幅在0.1至1.7个百分点之间；原材料库 存指数与上月持平；产成品库存指数较上月有所下降，降幅为0.8个百分点。其中，新出口订单指数为 47.6%，较上月上升1.7个百分点，升幅是上述13个分项指数中最大的。 新华财经北京11月30日电（记者安娜）11月份，反映宏观经济运行情况的重要先行指标——中国制造业 采购经理指数（PMI）止降回升，特别是制造业出口相关分项指数表现亮眼，成为带动市场需求恢复， 支撑中国制造业PMI回升的重要力量。 国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会11月30日发布的数据显示，11月份，中国制造业 PMI为49.2%，较上月上升0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善。 "11月份中国制造业PMI小幅回升，表明市场信心有所改善。四中全会精神全面贯彻落实，'十五五'发展 目标鼓舞人心，都对市场信心产生了积极影响。"国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部 ...

格隆汇11月20日｜商务部今日下午举行例行新闻发布会。商务部新闻发言人何咏前表示，目前，中方正 严格按照中美吉隆坡经贸磋商共识做好相关落实工作。 ...

Report Title - "Weak Decline with Limited Downside Space – Weekly Report on Non-ferrous Metals (Nickel) by Guoxin Futures" dated November 16, 2025 [2][3] Report Core View - The Shanghai nickel futures showed a weak downward trend this week. Refined nickel production remained high while demand was insufficient. The supply from the Philippines was affected by the rainy season and Typhoon "Seagull", with shipping stagnant, while the nickel ore market in Indonesia was relatively loose. The price of nickel sulfate was firm due to increased downstream demand, and the mid - term trend was yet to be observed with new capacity coming on stream. The stainless - steel market had weak prices, cautious raw material procurement by steel mills, poor terminal demand, and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 123,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,100 to 13,000 yuan/ton [39] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part presents the price trend of the nickel futures main contract from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, with data sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [7][8][9] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - It shows the inventory data of China's nickel ore ports from a certain period, with data from WIND, Mysteel, and Guoxin Futures [12][13][14] 2.2 Midstream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - Displays the price trend of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025, sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [15][16][17] 2.3 Midstream - Nickel Sulfate Price - Presents the average price trend of Chinese nickel sulfate from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025 [18][19] 2.4 Midstream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - Shows the monthly import volume of Chinese ferronickel and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025 [20][21] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless - Steel Price - Displays the closing price of stainless - steel futures (continuous) [22][23] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless - Steel Futures Position - Presents the position volume of stainless - steel futures from December 31, 2020, to October 31, 2025 [24][25][26] 2.5 Downstream - Wuxi Stainless - Steel Inventory - Shows the inventory of Wuxi stainless - steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless - steel [27][28][29] 2.6 Downstream - Production of Power and Energy - Storage Batteries - Displays the monthly production volume of Chinese power batteries and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and the total production volume of power and energy - storage batteries [30][31] 2.7 Downstream - New - Energy Vehicle Production - Presents the monthly production volume of Chinese new - energy vehicles [32][33] 3. Outlook for the Future - In the US, on October 29 local time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, with internal differences. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December is 63.4%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 36.6%. In China, the manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the manufacturing industry has been in the contraction range since April. The PMIs of high - tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries in October were 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively, still in the expansion range. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 123,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,100 to 13,000 yuan/ton [39]

有消息称，近日，白宫称中国同意在11月和12月购买大约1200万吨美豆，并在接下来三年每年至少买 2500万吨美豆。 上述情况是否属实？何亚东表示，近日，商务部已就中美吉隆坡经贸磋商联合安排发布相关消息，介绍 了磋商达成的主要成果共识，其中包括农产品贸易。中国是全球农产品贸易的重要参与者，将继续秉持 开放合作的态度，与全球贸易伙伴持续深化互利合作，共同维护开放、稳定、可持续的全球贸易体系。 南都讯 记者杨文君 发自北京 11月13日，商务部举行例行新闻发布会，新闻发言人何亚东就中美大豆交 易问题进行了回应。 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on November 11, 2025 - A-share market declined with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.39% to 4002.76, Shenzhen Component Index down 1.03% to 13289.01, and ChiNext Index down 1.40% to 3134.32. Trading volume was 19936 billion, a decrease of 1809 billion from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4652.17, down 42.88 [2] - The weighted coke index closed at 1717.6, down 59.5; the weighted coking coal index closed at 1231.8 yuan, down 40.7 [2][3] - Palm oil futures rose 0.92% to 8770, with a high of 8850 and a low of 8678 [5] - Shanghai copper futures rose 0.35% to 86630 yuan/ton [5] - Iron ore futures rose 0.2% to 763 yuan [5] - Asphalt futures rose 0.56% to 3050 yuan [5] - Rebar (rb2601) closed at 3025 yuan/ton, hot-rolled coil (hc2601) at 3242 yuan/ton [6] - Alumina (ao2601) closed at 2816 yuan/ton, and Shanghai aluminum (al2601) at 21665 yuan/ton [7] 2. Factors Affecting Futures Prices Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: Terminal consumption is in the off-season, steel inventory pressure is increasing, and steel mills maintain a just-in-time procurement rhythm. However, rising coking costs have reduced coking profits, leading coke enterprises to push for a fourth price increase, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises [4] - Coking coal: Environmental restrictions in Wuhai are still strict, and coal mine production expansion is slow. Although Shanxi's overproduction governance is in the expected stage, actual production control measures have not significantly increased [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The expected end of the US government shutdown improved market sentiment. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract fluctuated slightly higher. Analysts expect a 8.1% increase in sugarcane crushing in Brazil's central-south region in the second half of October to 2942 million tons, and a 7.8% increase in sugar production to 192 million tons [4] Rubber - Shanghai rubber futures adjusted due to technical factors after a sharp rise. As of November 9, the total inventory in Qingdao ports increased by 0.18 million tons to 44.95 million tons, with a 0.40% increase. Bonded warehouse inventory decreased by 0.74% to 6.78 million tons, and general trade inventory increased by 0.60% to 38.17 million tons [4] Palm Oil - From November 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 4.14% month-on-month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4%, and production decreased by 2.16% [5] Shanghai Copper - Supply shortages in mines and strong Chinese terminal consumption support copper prices. The price is oscillating at a high level due to macro - sentiment, with a bullish technical pattern [5] Cotton - The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract on the night of November 11 was 13535 yuan/ton, and the inventory increased by 325 lots. On November 10, the purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.15 - 6.35 yuan/kg [5] Iron Ore - Iron ore shipments and domestic arrivals decreased. Due to increased steel mill losses and maintenance, pig iron production has declined for 5 consecutive periods. The iron ore price is in a short - term oscillating trend [5] Asphalt - Asphalt production capacity utilization decreased, and inventory continued to decline. With weak terminal demand due to cold weather, the price is oscillating [5] Steel - Seasonal off - season and a weak real estate market have led to weak steel demand in November. As steel mill losses increase, maintenance and production cuts are intensifying. Steel prices are expected to oscillate narrowly [6] Alumina - Supply has not seen large - scale production cuts, and new capacity is expected. Although trade and electrolytic aluminum procurement support the spot price, the current fundamentals lack positive factors. The price is undervalued [7] Shanghai Aluminum - Winter environmental protection may affect some enterprises' operations, but production changes are expected to be small. The aluminum - water ratio is expected to decline in November. High - level price oscillations, environmental restrictions, and weak demand will limit price increases [7]

商务部新闻发言人就美方暂停实施出口管制穿透性规则答记者问。 美东时间11月10日，美国商务部产业与安全局在《联邦纪事》上发布公告，宣布暂停实施出口管制穿透性规则一年。 对此，商务部新闻发言人表示，中方注意到，美方宣布于2025年11月10日至2026年11月9日暂停实施出口管制穿透性规则， 即在此期间，被列入美国出口管制"实体清单"等制裁清单的企业，其持股超过50%的关联企业将不会因穿透性规则被追加 同等出口管制制裁。这是美方落实中美吉隆坡经贸磋商共识的重要举措。对于暂停一年后的安排，双方还将会继续讨论。 一、美方将取消针对中国商品（包括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区商品）加征的10%所谓"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品 （包括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区商品）加征的24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。中方将相应调整针对美方上述关税 的反制措施。双方同意继续延长部分关税排除措施。 二、美方将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则一年。中方将暂停实施10月9日公布的相关出口管制等措施 一年，并将研究细化具体方案。 三、美方将暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年。美方暂停实施相关措施后，中方也将相 ...