离境退税和市内店纷纷落地，2Q25 销售有 望筑底回暖 核心观点 ⚫ 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2025–2027 年 EPS 分别为 2.24/2.60/3.10 元（原 2025/2026 年预测 值为 4.23/4.87 元）。由于离岛免税销售恢复节奏偏慢、客流复苏不及预期，我们下 调了收入增速预期，同时调整了毛利率假设并上调了费用率假设。我们采用 DCF 绝 对估值法，给予公司目标价 67.24 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 1）政策落地不及预期风险；2）国际航线恢复节奏放缓；3）市内免税店盈利周期拉 长；4）客单价提升可持续性不足；5）费用管控不达预期影响利润修复节奏。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 67,540 | 56,474 | 61,865 | 67,993 | 74,120 | | 同比增长 (%) | 24.1% | -16.4% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.0% | | 营业利润(百万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent expansion of city duty-free shops in various Chinese cities, including the opening of Wuhan's first city duty-free store, is expected to invigorate domestic consumption and attract international tourists for shopping [1][2][5]. Group 1: City Duty-Free Store Developments - Wuhan's city duty-free store officially opened on June 28, marking it as the first new store following the recent policy changes [2]. - Other cities like Changsha and Guangzhou are also set to establish their own city duty-free stores soon [1]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments have announced plans to set up one city duty-free store in eight cities, including Wuhan, Guangzhou, Chengdu, and others [1]. Group 2: Consumer Experience and Store Features - The Wuhan city duty-free store spans over 1,800 square meters and includes various product categories such as cosmetics, electronics, and cultural products [2][3]. - The store allows travelers to shop flexibly without the time constraints typical of airport duty-free shops, enhancing the overall shopping experience [3]. - Consumers can also enjoy additional services like dining and entertainment within the shopping mall, creating a more integrated shopping environment [3]. Group 3: Economic and Market Implications - The city duty-free store model is expected to drive international tourists to purchase goods in China, potentially leading to a new trend in cross-border shopping [1][5]. - The global travel retail market is projected to reach 899.1 billion yuan by 2025, with the duty-free market accounting for 572.4 billion yuan, indicating significant growth potential [5]. - The introduction of city duty-free stores is seen as a strategy to enhance the international consumption status of cities, with many cities aiming to become international consumption centers [6][8]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The city duty-free store initiative is part of a broader trend to support domestic consumption and promote local products internationally [7][9]. - Companies like China Duty Free Group are actively expanding their presence in the city duty-free market, with several new stores in the pipeline [8]. - The industry is expected to mature over time, driven by favorable policies and market dynamics, ultimately enhancing the profitability of operators [10].

Core Viewpoint - The opening of the first city duty-free shop in Harbin, supported by the local government, enhances the duty-free commercial layout in Heilongjiang Province [1] Group 1: Store Details - The city duty-free shop is located at 17 Anlong Street in the Central Avenue business district and began trial operations on June 25 [1] - The store covers an area of 264 square meters and features a diverse product range centered on beauty, high-end liquor, and includes categories like department store goods, food, and domestic trendy products [3] - The store offers discounts starting from 61.8% during the trial period, with some products available for a cash discount of 700 yuan for purchases over 2000 yuan [3] Group 2: Policy and Operation - The city duty-free shop operates under the "city selection, port pickup" model, allowing travelers to purchase duty-free goods before their departure [3][4] - Eligible consumers include travelers departing from Harbin Taiping International Airport within 60 days, who must present valid identification and flight information [4] - There is no shopping limit for duty-free goods, but purchases must comply with customs regulations regarding personal use and reasonable quantities [5] Group 3: Strategic Importance - The duty-free shop serves as a platform to showcase local specialty products and cultural tourism souvenirs, enhancing Harbin's global presence [5] - The upgrade from a foreign exchange duty-free shop to a city duty-free shop is expected to innovate the commercial space and provide a new shopping experience for consumers [5]

广州首家市内免税店落地位于珠江新城的广州友谊商店首层， 门店正在进行升级改造。 作者：张锐 封图：图虫创意 新一批8家市内免税店开始陆续在武汉、广州等地亮相。 6月10日，经济观察报记者获悉，广州首家市内免税店落地位于珠江新城的广州友谊商店首层，门 店正在进行升级改造。广州友谊商店宾客服务中心主管介绍，上述免税店初拟8月中旬开门迎客。 此前的5月29日，广州友谊集团有限公司（下称"广州友谊"）的控股公司广百股份（002187.SZ） 发 布 公 告 称 ， 该 公 司 与 中 国 中 免 （ 601888.SH ） 、 岭 南 控 股 （ 000524.SZ ） 、 白 云 机 场 （600004.SH）共同投资设立中免市内免税品（广州）有限公司，开拓广州市内免税店业务。 此外，由王府井（600859.SH）与武商集团（000501.SZ）合作的武汉首家市内免税店亦在5月30 日试营业。 王府井在试营业公告中表示，武汉店是王府井集团免税业态在全国首个落地的市内免税项目，其开 业不仅是王府井免税业务从离岛免税、机场免税向市内免税业态的重要延伸，更标志着王府井在全 免税业态布局中迈出关键性一步。 实探广州首店进展 ...

Core Insights - A new batch of eight city duty-free shops is being established in cities like Wuhan and Guangzhou, with the first shop in Guangzhou set to open in mid-August 2024 [2][4] - The establishment of these shops marks a significant expansion of the duty-free business for companies like Wangfujing and Guangzhou Friendship, transitioning from offshore and airport duty-free to city-based operations [3][7] Company Developments - Guangzhou Friendship Group, in collaboration with China Duty Free Group and others, is launching a city duty-free store in Guangzhou, enhancing its retail offerings [2][4] - Wangfujing's first city duty-free store in Wuhan is currently in trial operation, representing a key step in its overall duty-free strategy [3][6] Market Context - The Ministry of Finance and other departments have issued guidelines for city duty-free shops, allowing one store each in eight major cities, focusing on easily transportable consumer goods and promoting domestic products [4][7] - The city duty-free market in China is expected to grow, with the potential for increased sales as it currently represents only 2% of the overall duty-free market, compared to over 50% in South Korea [7][8] Consumer Trends - The demand for duty-free shopping is anticipated to rise with the recovery of inbound tourism, as evidenced by a 43.1% increase in foreign visitors during the recent holiday period [11] - The Guangzhou Friendship store has already seen interest from international travelers, particularly in electronics and cosmetics, benefiting from a "buy and refund" policy [5][6] Financial Performance - China Duty Free Group reported a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with a notable drop in Hainan's revenue, but airport duty-free sales have shown recovery, with significant growth in Beijing and Shanghai [8][9] - The overall duty-free market is expected to see sustained growth due to the new city duty-free policies, although challenges remain in the broader retail environment [10]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid growth of domestic duty-free shops in China's first and second-tier cities, driven by increasing cross-border travel and supportive government policies [6][7][8] - The Ministry of Commerce has issued measures to support the establishment of international consumption centers, emphasizing the importance of domestic duty-free shops in attracting both outbound travelers and foreign tourists [7][11] - The duty-free sector is expected to play a crucial role in the retail landscape, providing new growth opportunities for local businesses and enhancing the shopping experience for consumers [11][19] Industry Trends - The cross-border travel market has seen a significant increase, with a reported 621.2 million entries and exits during the recent Qingming Festival, marking a 19.7% year-on-year growth [14] - Duty-free shopping in Hainan province has also surged, with tourism revenue reaching 1.661 billion yuan, a staggering 464.7% increase compared to the previous year [14] - Analysts predict that the ongoing tariff disputes between China and the U.S. may shift consumer spending towards duty-free channels, particularly for mid-to-high-end imported goods [13] Company Developments - Several companies, including China Duty Free Group and Wushang Group, are actively expanding their presence in the domestic duty-free market, with new stores set to open in cities like Wuhan and Chengdu [8][19] - The strategic locations of these duty-free shops, often near popular tourist attractions and in central urban areas, are designed to enhance consumer accessibility and shopping experience [20][22] - Local brands are expected to leverage this opportunity to increase their visibility and market share, with a focus on integrating cultural elements into their product offerings [19][22]

Core Insights - The newly opened duty-free store in Wuhan, operated by Wangfujing Group and Wushang Group, is the first of its kind in the country following the recent policy changes by the Ministry of Finance and other departments [1][2] - This store is a significant step in expanding inbound consumption in Hubei province and marks an important milestone in Wuhan's development as an international consumption center [1] Company Overview - The duty-free store is located on the sixth floor of Wushang MALL, a high-end shopping center in Central China, which is expected to attract over 32 million visitors in 2024 and achieve sales exceeding 10 billion [1] - The joint venture has signed contracts for over 100 international brands, covering a wide range of product categories, and features local cultural products to promote domestic brands internationally [1] Operational Highlights - The company has developed a unique itinerary verification system for a seamless shopping experience for foreign tourists, ensuring efficient and secure product pickup in compliance with customs regulations [1] - The store successfully passed customs inspection on May 16, confirming that its sales area and regulatory warehouse meet the necessary requirements [1] Market Impact - The project is expected to cater to the consumption needs of over 2 million international travelers annually in Hubei, reinforcing Wuhan's position as a central international consumption hub [2] - The establishment of the duty-free store aligns with the government's initiative to set up one store in each of eight designated cities, enhancing the accessibility of duty-free shopping for international travelers [2]

Core Insights - The newly opened duty-free store in Wuhan has seen high customer traffic during the Dragon Boat Festival, with popular products including panda ornaments and enamel gourd pendants sold out [1][3] - The store has sold over 1,500 products by the evening of June 2, with over 200 traditional crafts from Hubei province being particularly favored by both domestic and international tourists [3] - The store offers a variety of products, including international brands and domestic cultural creations, enhancing the shopping experience for visitors [3][8] Group 1 - The duty-free store provides a more comfortable shopping environment compared to airport duty-free shops, allowing tourists leaving within 60 days to shop and pick up their purchases at the airport [8] - The introduction of the "Shenshan Market" brand, featuring original silver jewelry and textile products from Guizhou, aims to attract foreign tourists and promote Chinese stories [8] - The store plans to regularly introduce new products developed in collaboration with local universities, enhancing the diversity of offerings and showcasing Wuhan's vibrancy [8]

Core Insights - The establishment of city duty-free shops is gaining momentum across multiple cities in China, facilitating a new commercial model of "in-store payment and port pickup" for local brands to expand internationally [1][2] - Wuhan has opened its first city duty-free shop, covering an area of approximately 1,200 square meters and offering a variety of products including imported duty-free cosmetics, electronics, beverages, and traditional handicrafts [1] - The Chinese government has initiated a policy allowing the establishment of city duty-free shops in eight cities, with Wuhan being the first to open under this policy [1] Summary by Category City Duty-Free Shop Developments - Multiple cities are progressing with the establishment of city duty-free shops, with the first in Wuhan and others planned in Changsha, Guangzhou, and Chengdu [2] - The new model allows consumers to purchase products in-store and pick them up at designated duty-free points at the port [1] Product Offerings - The Wuhan duty-free shop features over 200 taxable products, including traditional crafts and textiles, alongside a range of imported goods [1] Consumer Eligibility - Consumers must meet specific criteria to purchase from duty-free shops, including holding a passport and a flight ticket for departure within 60 days, regardless of nationality [1]

5月30日，省商务厅发布通知，公开征集市内免税店国货"潮品"品牌。 通知中列明了申报品牌、申报企业应当具备的一系列条件以及所需申报材料等。我省要求，申报品 牌应在国内外具有较高知名度，在所属行业或领域具有代表性、引领性和示范性，或体现中华民族特 色、独特工艺，有助于传播中华优秀文化。申报企业应经营状况良好，具有较强的可持续发展能力；在 所属行业或领域内具有较强影响力。申报企业须将申报材料于6月5日前通过电子邮箱报送省商务厅，并 确保所提供材料的真实性、准确性。 据了解，目前全国经批准、按规定设立的市内免税店不超过20家，其中我省有两家，均位于大连。 省商务厅相关负责人表示，鼓励市内免税店销售国货"潮品"，也意味着各免税店可以通过差异化经营、 做好特色商品来满足不同旅客的消费需求。国货商品可以借助市内免税店扩大销售渠道，提升国际竞争 力和影响力。 什么是市内免税店？根据去年我国发布的《市内免税店管理暂行办法》，市内免税店，是指经国务 院批准，按规定设立在市内，向即将出境的旅客销售免税商品的商店。相比在机场、港口、码头等地设 置的免税店，市内免税店的选址通常足够便利，能够兼顾观光旅游、配套服务的目的，进而能为消费 ...