Core Viewpoint - The current spot gold price remains above $4,100, driven by signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market and the nearing end of the government shutdown [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent private sector data indicates that U.S. companies have averaged weekly layoffs of 11,250 over the four weeks ending in late October, reinforcing expectations for further interest rate cuts this year [1] - Analysts from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, including Soojin Kim, suggest that the reopening of the government is expected to restore access to official economic data, providing clarity for future monetary policy decisions [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The appeal of gold as a hedge against global uncertainty, along with central bank purchases, has supported a 56% increase in the price of this precious metal this year [1]

Core Insights - Recent spot gold prices have been rising, with market sentiment indicating a potential breakthrough of historical highs [1] - Factors such as global uncertainty, increased geopolitical risks, and adjustments in major central bank monetary policies have significantly enhanced the appeal of spot gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Analysts note that fluctuations in the US dollar index, changes in US Treasury yields, and rising inflation expectations are providing strong support for spot gold prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in gold prices is driven by strong demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties, particularly due to geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in the Middle East [2]. Group 1: Current Market Situation - As of September 23, gold futures are trading around 853.52 yuan per gram, reflecting a 1.76% increase, with a high of 855.62 yuan and a low of 845.04 yuan [1]. - The short-term outlook for gold futures appears bullish, indicating potential for further price increases [1]. Group 2: Underlying Demand Factors - The demand for gold is characterized as structural and persistent, providing a solid foundation for high gold prices despite fluctuations in short-term monetary policy expectations [2]. - Gold is viewed as a non-sovereign credit asset, making its value preservation and hedging properties particularly valuable during times of political and economic uncertainty [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified in the range of 850 to 870 yuan per gram, while important support levels are noted between 840 and 860 yuan per gram [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan has maintained its policy interest rate at 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, amidst ongoing uncertainties regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Japanese economy [1][2]. Interest Rates and Bond Yields - The Bank of Japan has kept interest rates unchanged for four consecutive meetings, citing uncertainties related to U.S. import tariffs, even after the U.S. reduced tariffs on Japanese automobiles to 15% [2]. - As of the latest data, the 2-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 3.8 basis points to 0.918%, while the 10-year yield increased by 4 basis points to 1.64%. The 30-year yield, however, fell by 3.5 basis points to 3.159% [1][2]. Inflation Trends - Japan's overall inflation rate decreased from 3.1% in July to 2.7%, marking the lowest level since November 2024. The "core-core" inflation rate, which excludes fresh food and energy prices, fell to 3.3% from 3.4% in July [3]. - The Bank of Japan noted a "moderate" rise in inflation expectations, influenced by rising food prices, with core inflation projected between 2.5% and 3% [2][3]. Financial Market Developments - Japanese stock prices have risen, boosting the financial assets held by individuals in Japan, which totaled approximately 223.8 trillion yen (about 1.52 trillion USD) in Q2, reflecting a 1% year-on-year increase. Stock holdings grew by 4.9%, and investment trusts increased by 9% [3]. - Recent data indicated that Japanese investors net purchased 1.4785 trillion yen in overseas long-term bonds while reducing short-term bonds, while foreign investors increased their holdings of Japanese long-term bonds by 845.3 billion yen [3]. U.S. Treasury Holdings - As of the end of July, Japan held 1.1514 trillion USD in U.S. Treasury securities, an increase of 3.8 billion USD from the previous month and up 57.9 billion USD year-on-year, making Japan the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt [4].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy interest rate at 0.50%, which aligns with market expectations, despite two committee members voting against this decision advocating for a 25 basis point hike [1] - The policy statement emphasized a moderate recovery in the economy, despite some sectors showing signs of weakness, and highlighted the need to monitor uncertainties affecting financial markets, economic activities, and prices [1] - Following the announcement, the Japanese yen strengthened, with the USD/JPY exchange rate dropping to a low of 147.211, reflecting market reactions to the central bank's stance [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the decision to keep rates unchanged indicates the Bank of Japan's cautious approach amid slowing inflation and global uncertainties, signaling readiness to address external fluctuations while assessing the strength of Japan's economic recovery [2] - The narrowing interest rate differentials are expected to lead to a gradual strengthening of the yen, enhancing Japan's purchasing power and supporting domestic demand [2] - The focus is now shifting to the upcoming press conference by Governor Kazuo Ueda, which may provide further insights into the central bank's future policy direction [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a record high of $3578.29 per ounce, driven by weak U.S. employment data and strong safe-haven demand amid global uncertainties [1][3] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is at 96.6%, with only a 3.4% chance of maintaining current rates [1] - Following the release of employment data, traders increased their bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve from 92% to 98% [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that economic activity in most U.S. districts has shown little to no change, with consumer spending remaining flat or declining due to wages not keeping pace with rising prices [4] - Inflation was reported across all districts, with ten districts noting moderate or subdued inflation, while two reported strong input price growth [4] - Tariff-related price increases were mentioned as a significant factor affecting input prices in many districts [4]

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Conway, stated that the impact of global uncertainty on confidence in New Zealand will gradually dissipate as businesses adapt to a highly unpredictable economic policy environment [1] Group 1: Economic Confidence - Confidence shocks are expected to pass, allowing businesses to "keep moving forward" [1] - There is an acknowledgment that uncertainty will persist in the future, but businesses have become somewhat accustomed to it [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to lower the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.0% [1] - Further interest rate cuts are hinted at, which encourages businesses to continue their operations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper company, stated that global uncertainty is causing fluctuations in copper prices [1] Group 1 - Codelco is experiencing price volatility in copper due to various global uncertainties [1] - The fluctuations in copper prices are impacting the overall market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian Treasurer Chalmers highlighted that global uncertainty is the primary constraint on the budget [1] Group 1 - The budget is significantly influenced by external factors, particularly global economic conditions [1] - Chalmers emphasized the need for careful management of fiscal policy in light of these uncertainties [1] - The government is focused on maintaining economic stability while navigating these challenges [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor, Philip Lowe, indicated that global uncertainty has not yet manifested in domestic business surveys, emphasizing the importance of controlling inflation and avoiding a renewed battle with it [1] Group 1 - The RBA is focused on ensuring that inflation is under control [1] - There is a lack of evidence showing that global uncertainties are impacting local business sentiment [1] - The RBA aims to prevent a resurgence of inflationary pressures [1]