| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 显一 | な☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕櫚油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 菜粕 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆陆续展开收购,目前东北产区毛粮价格集中在1.85元/斤,刚上市的大豆主要以低蛋白为主。我 们上周东北产地调研了解的结果是市场对今年国产大豆产量预期跟去年比较是持平或微增，主要是得益于面积 增长。国产大豆短期表现好于进口大豆,国产和进口大豆价差走强。美豆表现偏弱，目前处于收获李节，面临 季节性 ...

2025/9/29 13:25 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA⻢棕9⽉前25⽇产量环⽐减4.14% PAN巴西⼤⾖播种进度已达4.16% 20250929 | | 最新价 | 漆跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98. 16 | -0. 28 | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 1152 | 0. 05 | | 马未林吉特(MYR/USD) | 4. 2129 | 0. 12 | | 印尼卢比(IDR/USD) | 16702 | 0. 52 | | 巴西里亚尔(BRL/USD) | 5. 3470 | 0. 57 | | 阿根廷比索(ARS/USD) | 1329.000 | -0. 60 | | 新币(SGD/USD) | 1. 2925 | 0. 45 | 02 现货行情 | 期货 | 现货 | 现货价格 | 基差 | 基差隔日变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE棕榈油2601 | 华北 | 9340 | 90 | -10 | | | 华东 | 9200 | -40 | 0 | | | 华南 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating for both the pig and egg markets: Cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Report's Core View - For the pig market, the short - term supply - demand pattern is characterized by strong supply and weak demand due to the reduced weight - based slaughter of group factories during the festival. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the culling of sows and policy changes [2] - For the egg market, the short - term consumption demand is strong due to the double festivals, but the impact of cold - stored eggs entering the market should be monitored [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2511 contract was 12,830 yuan/ton, a change of - 170 yuan/ton (- 1.31%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of outer ternary live pigs was 12.88 yuan/kg (- 0.06 yuan/kg); in Jiangsu, it was 13.10 yuan/kg (- 0.11 yuan/kg); in Sichuan, it was 12.56 yuan/kg (- 0.10 yuan/kg) [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices: On September 18, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.03 points, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.04 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 19.55 yuan/kg (- 0.9%); beef was 65.97 yuan/kg (+ 1.1%); mutton was 61.09 yuan/kg (+ 0.5%); eggs were 8.40 yuan/kg (+ 1.6%); white - striped chickens were 17.55 yuan/kg (+ 1.0%) [1] Market Analysis - The short - term supply - demand pattern is difficult to change, but long - term attention should be paid to the culling of sows and policy changes [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2511 contract was 3,132 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of + 16 yuan (+ 0.51%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 3.53 yuan/jin (- 0.07); in Shandong, it was 3.85 yuan/jin (unchanged); in Hebei, it was 3.42 yuan/jin (- 0.11) [3] - Inventory: On September 18, 2025, the production - link inventory was 0.5 days (unchanged), and the circulation - link inventory was 0.97 days, an increase of 0.23 days (31.08%) [3] Market Analysis - After the egg price increase, the terminal consumption and sales are smooth, and the overall demand is still strong due to the festival. However, attention should be paid to the impact of cold - stored eggs entering the market [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Agricultural Products Market - The national market prices for edible agricultural products remained stable from September 8 to 14, with a slight decrease in production material prices by 0.2% compared to the previous week [1] - Average wholesale prices for six types of fruits saw a minor decline, with grapes, citrus, and apples decreasing by 3.1%, 2.1%, and 0.6% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price for 30 types of vegetables was 4.75 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.2%, with cucumber, broccoli, and cauliflower decreasing by 8.7%, 4.4%, and 4.4% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices for aquatic products showed a slight decline, with crucian carp, carp, and grass carp decreasing by 1.3%, 1.2%, and 0.5% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices experienced minor fluctuations, with pork priced at 19.97 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.6%, while lamb and beef increased by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with rice and rapeseed oil decreasing by 0.2% and 0.1%, while soybean oil and peanut oil increased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw a slight increase, with eggs and broilers rising by 3.3% and 0.1% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - The prices of basic chemical raw materials predominantly decreased, with sulfuric acid, soda ash, and polypropylene declining by 1.6%, 0.6%, and 0.1% respectively, while methanol increased by 0.5% [2] - Coal prices showed a stable decline, with coking coal and thermal coal priced at 1001 yuan and 756 yuan per ton, decreasing by 1.2% and 0.5% respectively, while smokeless block coal remained unchanged at 1136 yuan per ton [2] - Fertilizer prices continued to decline, with urea and compound fertilizer decreasing by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively [2] - Finished oil wholesale prices experienced a slight decrease, with 92-octane gasoline, 0-octane diesel, and 95-octane gasoline dropping by 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Rubber prices saw a slight retreat, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber decreasing by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively [2] - Steel prices remained stable, with high-speed wire, rebar, and welded steel pipes priced at 3547 yuan, 3366 yuan, and 3795 yuan per ton, all decreasing by 0.1%, while ordinary medium plates, hot-rolled strips, and channel steel increased by 0.1% [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals showed a slight increase, with aluminum and zinc rising by 0.8% and 0.6%, while copper prices remained unchanged [2]

据农业农村部监测，9月15日"农产品批发价格200指数"为117.94，比上周五下降0.37个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为118.71，比上周五下降0.45个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为19.88元/公斤，与上周五持平；牛肉 65.66元/公斤，与上周五持平；羊肉61.09元/公斤，比上周五下降0.3%；鸡蛋8.11元/公斤，比上周五上升2.0%；白 条鸡17.52元/公斤，比上周五上升0.5%。 农产品日报 | 2025-09-16 消费提振有限，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2511合约13275元/吨，较前交易日变动+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.15%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.32元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH11+45，较前交易日变动-170；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 13.49元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.11元/公斤，现货基差LH11+215，较前交易日变动-210；四川 地区外三元生猪价格12.87元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.18元/公斤，现货基差LH11-405，较前交易日变动-300。 市场分析 ...

Group 1 - The average price of pork in China's wholesale markets is 19.94 yuan per kilogram, which represents an increase of 0.6% compared to the previous day [1] - The average price of eggs is 7.64 yuan per kilogram, showing a decrease of 0.4% from the previous day [1]

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price increased by 0.5% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables reached 4.46 yuan per kilogram, rising by 3.2%, with broccoli, cucumber, and zucchini increasing by 18.9%, 10.9%, and 10.2% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw slight increases, with eggs and white-cut chicken rising by 1.4% and 0.5% respectively [1] - Aquatic product wholesale prices experienced minor increases, with grass carp, large yellow croaker, and carp rising by 0.5%, 0.5%, and 0.1% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with pork priced at 20.05 yuan per kilogram, decreasing by 0.6%, while beef and lamb increased by 0.3% [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices slightly decreased, with soybean oil, rapeseed oil, rice, and flour all dropping by 0.2%, while peanut oil increased by 0.1% [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits slightly decreased, with grapes, watermelons, and bananas falling by 1.1%, 1.1%, and 0.9% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - Steel prices experienced slight declines, with high-speed wire, rebar, and hot-rolled strip steel priced at 3595 yuan, 3411 yuan, and 3613 yuan per ton, decreasing by 1.2%, 1.1%, and 0.6% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices saw minor decreases, with polypropylene, sulfuric acid, methanol, and soda ash dropping by 1.3%, 0.7%, 0.4%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices slightly retreated, with zinc, copper, and aluminum decreasing by 0.9%, 0.7%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Refined oil wholesale prices continued to decline, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline decreasing by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices remained stable with a slight increase, as urea rose by 0.1%, while compound fertilizers remained unchanged from the previous week [2] - Coal prices continued to rise, with coking coal, thermal coal, and anthracite priced at 994 yuan, 766 yuan, and 1138 yuan per ton, increasing by 1.1%, 0.4%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Rubber prices saw slight increases, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber rising by 0.9% and 0.5% respectively [2]

Group 1: Apple Investment Rating - Neutral. The apple market is expected to maintain stable prices in the short term due to low inventory and similar expected production in the new season [3]. Core View - The apple market shows a mixed trend with polarizing prices of early - maturing varieties and a weakening trend in inventory apples. The market should focus on the quality of new - season fruits and the impact of early - maturing apples on inventory apple sales [1][2]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract was 8124 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.21% ) from the previous day. Spot: Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.75 yuan/jin; Shaanxi Luochuan 70 semi - commodity late Fuji was 4.50 yuan/jin [1]. Market Analysis - Apple futures prices fell. The remaining early - maturing Gala apples in the western region had uneven quality and chaotic prices. Inventory apples had a high proportion of large fruits and slow sales. Short - term inventory apples are expected to be stable but weak [2]. Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. With low inventory and little change in expected production, apple prices will likely remain stable in the short term. Monitor the trading of new - season early - maturing apples [3]. Group 2: Red Dates Investment Rating - Neutral. The red date market may see short - term upward movement due to unfalsified production reduction expectations, but high inventory may cause prices to weaken if the reduction is less than expected [7]. Core View - Red date futures prices were flat. The arrival of goods in the sales areas decreased, and the market is sensitive to weather changes in the production areas. There are differences in the expectations for the new - season red date production [4][6]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract was 11410 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Spot: Hebei first - grade grey dates were 9.60 yuan/kg [4]. Market Analysis - Red date futures prices remained the same. The first - crop flowers are turning red and sugaring. The arrival of goods in the sales areas decreased, and the spot price is strong. The market is trading based on production reduction expectations and is sensitive to weather [6]. Strategy - Adopt a neutral stance. The market may be affected by capital sentiment in the short term, but high inventory may lead to price weakness if the production reduction is less than expected [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the bond market followed the stock market. The influence of the stock index on the bond market weakened. Short - term focus on stock market changes: a strong stock market will suppress the bond market, while a stock market correction will benefit bond bulls. The trading strategy is for trading - type investors to conduct band operations [2][35][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened lower with a gap on Monday and then fell sharply, fluctuated horizontally on Tuesday, fell sharply on Wednesday, rebounded after hitting the bottom on Thursday, and declined slightly on Friday. The 30 - year treasury bond fell 1.05%, the 10 - year treasury bond fell 0.52%, the 5 - year treasury bond fell 0.28%, and the 2 - year treasury bond fell 0.03% [5] - As of August 22, the maturity yield curve of treasury bond cash bonds shifted upward in parallel compared with August 15. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields rose by 3, 4, 3, and 3 basis points respectively [8] 3.2 Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Data - In July, the national general public budget revenue was 2027.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%, and the expenditure was 1946.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.04%. From January to July, the cumulative general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 3.4% year - on - year [11] - In July, national tax revenue was 1801.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%, and non - tax revenue was 225.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9% [13] - From January to July, the national government - funded budget revenue was 2312.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%, and the expenditure was 5428.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 31.7% [16] 3.3 Unemployment Rate - In July, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group (excluding students) in urban areas was 17.8%, higher than the same period last year by 0.7 percentage points; the 25 - 29 age group was 6.9%, higher than the same period last year by 0.4 percentage points; the 30 - 59 age group was 3.9%, the same as the same period last year [19] 3.4 South Korean Export Data - In the first 20 days of August, South Korea's exports increased by 7.6% year - on - year. Semiconductor exports were 8.71 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 29.5%, accounting for 24.5% of the total exports in the first 20 days of August, up 4.2 percentage points from the same period last year [21] 3.5 New Home Sales Data - Since June, the decline rate of the national new home sales area has accelerated. From January to March, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 2.36 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From August 1 to 20, it was 1.8 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16% [23] 3.6 Price Data - As of August 22, the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices was 115.53. Prices showed a slight upward trend in the first 22 days of August, but the upward slope was much lower than the same period last year. In July, energy prices increased by 1.6% month - on - month, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.12 percentage points. The average domestic refined oil price in August was lower than that in July [25] - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index declined slightly in the first 22 days of August. After reaching a closing high on July 25, it continued to decline. Short - term inflation pressure is limited [28] 3.7 Capital Interest Rate Data - This week, capital interest rates increased. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.45%, and it fell to 1.41% on Friday. The weighted average of DR007 was 1.52%, and it fell to 1.47% on Friday. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.67%, higher than last week's average of 1.64% [31][32] 3.8 Treasury Bond Futures Market Logic and Trading Strategy - In July, China's fixed - asset investment growth rate was significantly lower than market expectations. Retail sales of consumer goods, industrial added value, and the service industry production index were all lower than expected. Real estate sales and prices continued to decline, while exports exceeded expectations. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the State Council will take measures to stimulate consumption, expand investment, and stabilize the real estate market [35] - The trading strategy is for trading - type investors to conduct band operations [36]

（文章来源：新华财经） 据农业农村部监测，截至8月12日14:00时，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.26元/公斤，较前一 日上升0.3%；鸡蛋平均价格为7.54元/公斤，较前一日下降0.1%。 ...