Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market continues to face pressure, with the Hang Seng Index opening down 0.8%, the National Enterprises Index down 0.72%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.25% [1] - Major stocks such as China Hongqiao, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Li Auto, and NetEase experienced declines, with China Hongqiao dropping 7.74% [1] Company Performance - XPeng Motors reported a significant reduction in net loss for the three months ending September 30, 2025, with a loss of 381 million RMB, down 78.93% year-on-year. Revenue reached 20.381 billion RMB, a 101.76% increase, with automotive sales revenue at 18.054 billion RMB, up 105.27% [1] - The gross profit for XPeng Motors was 4.104 billion RMB, a 166.26% increase, with a quarterly gross margin of 20.1%, up 4.8 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [1] - Leap Motor reported a net profit of 150 million RMB for Q3 2025, with total net profit for the first three quarters reaching 180 million RMB. Q3 revenue was 19.45 billion RMB, a 97.3% increase from 9.86 billion RMB in Q4 2024 [2] - The gross margin for Leap Motor in Q3 2025 was 14.5%, up 0.9 percentage points from Q2 2025 [2] Debt Issuance - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company announced the successful issuance of its third phase of technology innovation bonds for 2025, raising 3 billion RMB with a term of 3+N years and an interest rate of 2.06% [2] Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment is cautious due to cooling interest rate cut expectations and a lack of surprises in earnings reports, leading to a downward trend in major indices [3] - The overall market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, with significant support at 26,000 points and resistance at 27,000 points [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Central City Leading Index (CCL) has shown a weekly increase of 1.2%, reaching 138.74 points, driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts and fluctuating housing prices [1] Group 1: CCL Performance - The CCL is currently at its third highest level of 2025, just 0.51 points or 0.37% below the year's peak of 139.25 points [1] - Over the past 15 weeks, the CCL has recorded ten increases and five decreases, rising 2.65% from the low of 135.16 points [2] - The CCL Mass index reached 140.77 points, marking a weekly increase of 1.38% and a 57-week high since early August 2024 [2] Group 2: Regional Price Trends - In the New Territories West, the CCL Mass index rose 2.36% to 128.17 points, while Kowloon saw a 2.19% increase to 139.72 points, both reaching their third highest levels of the year [3] - The CCL Mass index for Hong Kong Island decreased by 1.01%, marking a cumulative drop of 2.65% over two weeks [3] - Year-to-date, the CCL has increased by 0.80%, with the CCL Mass up 1.91% and the CCL for large units down 2.73% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are expected to rise for the fourth consecutive week, driven by concerns over a weak U.S. labor market overshadowing inflation worries, with widespread expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next week [1] Group 1: Market Trends - As of this week, spot gold has increased by approximately 1.8% [1] - Market sentiment suggests a high likelihood of at least three interest rate cuts before the end of 2025, with expectations for the magnitude of cuts being significantly higher than two months ago [1] Group 2: Price Projections - Ryan McIntyre from Sprott Inc. indicates that gold prices are nearing $3,700, suggesting a potential breakout [1] - Short-term technical analysis points to resistance around $3,900, but long-term views suggest that many institutions may still be significantly underweight in gold [1]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.9% month-on-month in July, the highest increase in three years, against an expectation of 0.2%[1] - Year-on-year, the PPI increased by 3.3%, surpassing the expected 2.5%[1] - The Australian economy growth forecast for 2023 was downgraded from 2.1% to 1.7%[2] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The US Treasury Secretary indicated that conditions for a rate cut are maturing, suggesting a potential 0.25% cut in September[2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reduced the cash rate by 0.25% to 3.6%, the lowest in two years, aligning with market expectations[2] - The RBA maintained inflation forecasts at 3% for this year and 2.9% for next year[2] Group 3: Currency Trends - Following the interest rate decision, the Australian dollar (AUD) briefly rose above 0.655 against the US dollar (USD) but later consolidated around 0.649[3] - The AUD is expected to fluctuate between 0.61 and 0.69 against the USD in the second half of the year[3] - If the AUD stabilizes above 0.645, it may present a buying opportunity[3]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US has increased, causing the US dollar to weaken in the short term. The probability of a rate cut in September has risen to about 80% [3]. - The US second - quarter economic growth rate was higher than expected, but business investment growth slowed. The inflation indicator PCE showed a slight rebound [1]. - The US Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time due to high economic uncertainty, a stable labor market, and high inflation [2]. - The US non - farm payrolls data was far lower than expected, and the previous two months' data were significantly revised down, leading to Trump's decision to replace the BLS局长 [2]. Key Data - The US second - quarter GDP grew 3% quarter - on - quarter, better than the expected 2.4% [1]. - In June, the US PCE annual increase rose from 2.3% to 2.6%, and the core PCE index rose 2.8% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.7% [1]. - In July, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The June figure was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, and the May figure was revised down by 125,000 [2]. - After the data release, the Dow Jones Industrial Average once fell more than 400 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell more than 2% [3]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has risen to about 80% [3]. Policy and Events - Trump signed an executive order to keep the minimum reciprocal tariff rate at 10% and increased the tariff on Canadian goods from 25% to 35%, while extending the current tariff rate on Mexican goods for 90 days [1]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.5% unchanged [2]. - Trump ordered the replacement of the BLS局长 due to poor non - farm payrolls data [2]. US Dollar Index - The US dollar index rebounded in July and reached a two - month high of 100.257 last Friday but weakened short - term after the non - farm data, falling to 99 for consolidation. The resistance level is at 101 [3].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP grew by 3% in Q2, surpassing the market expectation of 2.4%[1] - The PCE price index rose from 2.3% to 2.6% year-on-year in June, with core PCE increasing to 2.8%[1] - Non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 110,000[2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive hold[2] - Following the employment report, the probability of a rate cut in September surged to approximately 80%[3] - The Fed's hawkish stance previously led to a six-day rise in the U.S. dollar index, which reached a high of 100.257[3] Group 3: Market Reactions - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 400 points after the employment data release, while the Nasdaq dropped over 2%[3] - The U.S. dollar index experienced short-term weakness, retreating to around 99 after the non-farm payroll data[3]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP grew by 3% in Q2, surpassing the market expectation of 2.4%[1] - The PCE price index increased from 2.3% to 2.6% year-on-year in June, while the core PCE index rose to 2.8%[1] - Non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 110,000[2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive hold[2] - The probability of a rate cut in September surged to approximately 80% following the employment data release[3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the employment report, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 400 points, and the Nasdaq dropped more than 2%[3] - The U.S. Dollar Index briefly rose above 100, reaching a two-month high at 100.257 before retreating to around 99[3]

Core Viewpoint - The July employment data in the U.S. fell short of expectations, indicating signs of cooling in the labor market, while the focus remains on long-term economic trends and sustainable growth themes such as AI, healthcare innovation, digital economy, and electrification [1] Group 1: Employment Data - July's job additions were significantly below market expectations, with previous months' data also revised downward, reflecting a cooling labor market [1] - Despite cautious hiring by businesses, consumer and corporate balance sheets remain robust, supporting a degree of resilience in the U.S. economy [1] Group 2: Investment Focus - The investment focus is on long-term economic trends and themes with sustainable growth potential, including artificial intelligence, healthcare innovation, digital economy development, and electrification [1] Group 3: Fixed Income and Interest Rates - The current federal funds rate stands at 4.375%, with rising market expectations for interest rate cuts [1] - Taking interest rate risk at the front end of the yield curve may provide diversification benefits for investment portfolios and act as a buffer during stock or credit market volatility [1]

Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in June, surpassing economists' expectations of 0.1%[1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 221,000, a decrease of 7,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April[1] - New Zealand's Q2 Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual increase rose to 2.7%, slightly above the previous value of 2.5% but below the market expectation of 2.8%[2] Monetary Policy - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained the interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations[2] - There is an increased probability of a 0.25% rate cut in August, rising from approximately 60% to over 80% following the inflation data release[2] Currency Outlook - New Zealand's GDP grew by 0.8% in Q1, indicating a recovery in the economy, with contributions from primary industries, goods production, and services[3] - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is expected to target 0.61 against the U.S. dollar, as the upward momentum of the U.S. dollar weakens[3]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong government has relaxed the mortgage loan-to-value ratio for new properties, leading to over 50% of buyers opting for immediate payment methods in new launches, with some projects seeing up to 90% using this method [1] - The total number of new mortgage applications for new properties is expected to reach approximately 6,500 this year, a significant increase of about 56% compared to last year's 4,186, potentially hitting a five-year high [1] - The existing property mortgage market is projected to see a slight increase to around 55,500 applications this year, up about 10% from last year's 50,500 [1] Group 2 - If interest rates decrease in the second half of the year, along with a slight recovery in property prices, banks are expected to maintain a positive stance on residential mortgage business, with an estimated 45,000 new residential mortgage applications this year, reflecting a nearly 15% increase from last year's 39,327 [2] - The number of mortgage refinancing applications is anticipated to decline slightly to around 7,100 this year, down about 5% from last year's 7,451, due to cautious bank valuations and limited incentives for homeowners to refinance [2] - The demand for mortgage insurance is expected to decrease significantly, with new mortgage insurance applications projected at around 6,500, a reduction of approximately 30% from last year's 9,337 [3] Group 3 - The increase in applications for 70% mortgages without insurance has risen to 31% of total applications in the first half of the year, compared to 15% in the same period last year, indicating a significant shift in borrowing behavior [3] - The outlook for the Hong Kong property market remains cautiously optimistic, dependent on external and local economic factors, with potential risks from the global economic environment [3]