瑞银指出，据旺旺管理层透露，今年10至11月销售表现较去年差，主要因2026年农历新年较迟。利润率 方面，管理层预期下半年毛利率与上半年相比将保持稳定，明年则有望改善，因进口奶粉成本由目前高 位逐步回落。美银认为，公司拓展新兴及零食折扣渠道虽然能推动销量与渗透率增长，但亦可能削弱产 品定价能力并推高渠道成本，对长期利润率构成压力，同时对乳饮品类需求疲软及电商平台补贴竞争感 到担忧。 瑞银发布研报称，中国旺旺2026财年上半财年(截至今年9月底止中期)收入按年增长2.1%至111亿元人民 币(下同)，净利润则按年下降7.8%至17亿元；毛利率按年跌1.1个百分点至46.2%，净利润率按年跌1.7个 百分点至15.5%。该行认为收入符合预期，但盈利低于市场预期，主要受营运开支按年增长10.6%拖 累，其中广告及促销费用有所增加。 智通财经APP获悉，中国旺旺(00151)再跌超4%，截至发稿，跌4.47%，报4.7港元，成交额3111.69万港 元。 ...

东南亚小腾讯Sea于 11 月 11 日晚美股盘前，交付了 3 季度业绩答卷。概括来看，本季业绩属于亮点与缺陷共存。首先是增长仍然非常强劲，三大板块的 营收和业务增长都超预期的好。 但因公司开始更侧重于增长而非利润，随着毛利环比收窄，以及费用支出维持较高增长，本季各板块的利润率都在边际变差，具体来看： 1、GMV 依然强劲，但并非由量驱动：最重要Shopee 电商板块的 GMV 本季同比增速仍达 28.3%。比上季继续略有提速，也超出卖方预期的 25.4%，无 疑 任然 相当强劲。 只是略显瑕疵的是，本季超预期主要是由客单价的修复驱动，而单量增速是环比走低的（上季 32% vs. 本季 29%）。并没能明确地验证，在增加投入和物 流补贴后，电商订单量持续加速，这 个 市场期待的看多信号。 2、佣金变现走高，但物流变现下降：由于东南亚各主要平台仍在携手提高变现，本季Shopee 整体平台变现率达到了 11.9%，环比提升了幅度是 23 年以 来最高的一次。在此带动下，本季 Shopee 平台型收入的增速高达 37%，环比提速了整 3pct。 更细来看，本季是佣金性变现率环比大幅提升了 0.9pct，而以物流为主 ...

Core Insights - Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with earnings and revenues exceeding expectations, although revenues declined year over year while earnings increased [1][4][10] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q1 was 3 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of breakeven earnings, compared to breakeven EPS in the prior-year quarter [4][10] - Quarterly revenues reached $551 million, exceeding the consensus mark of $541 million by 1.8%, but reflecting a 6% decline year over year [4][10] - Connected Fitness segment revenues were $152.4 million, down from $159.6 million in the prior-year quarter, while subscription revenues were $398.4 million, down from $426.3 million [5] Operating Metrics - Peloton had 2.73 million Ending Paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions, a 6% decline year over year, with an average net monthly churn of 1.6% [6] - The company registered 542 thousand Peloton App subscribers, reflecting a net decrease of 8% year over year [6] Margin Performance - Operating expenses decreased by 17% year over year to $242.4 million, while gross profit totaled $283.7 million, down 7% year over year [7] - Gross margin contracted by 30 basis points to 51.5%, attributed to a $13.5 million inventory accrual related to Bike+ seat-post costs [7] - Subscription gross margin improved by 80 basis points to 68.6%, while Connected Fitness Products margin decreased by 230 basis points to 6.9% [7] Adjusted EBITDA - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $118.3 million, up 2% year over year, exceeding management's guidance by $18 million due to lower operating costs and improved execution [8][10] Balance Sheet & Cash Flow - As of September 30, 2025, Peloton held $1.10 billion in cash and cash equivalents, an increase from $1.04 billion at the end of fiscal 2025 [11] - Net debt decreased to $395.1 million from $777.3 million in the prior-year period [11] - Net cash provided by operating activities was $71.9 million, up from $12.5 million in the prior-year quarter, while free cash flow was $67.4 million compared to $10.7 million previously [12][11] Outlook - For Q2 fiscal 2026, Peloton expects revenues between $665 million and $685 million, indicating a slight year-over-year growth at the midpoint, with paid connected fitness subscriptions projected to decline by 8% [13] - The company anticipates fiscal 2026 revenues between $2.4 billion and $2.5 billion, reflecting a 2% year-over-year decline at the midpoint, with adjusted EBITDA expected to rise by 12% year over year [15]

Core Insights - Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS) reported strong third-quarter 2025 results, with non-GAAP earnings of $1.74 per share, exceeding estimates by 18.37% and showing a year-over-year increase of 77.6% [1][8] - Revenues reached $463.3 million, surpassing estimates by 5.14% and reflecting a 23.8% year-over-year growth [1][8] Revenue Breakdown - Semiconductor Equipment revenues, accounting for 42.4% of total revenues, decreased by 0.5% year over year to $196.6 million and fell 6.2% sequentially [2] - Industrial & Medical revenues, making up 15.4% of total revenues, declined 7.4% year over year to $71.2 million but increased 3.8% sequentially [2] - Data Center Computing revenues, representing 37% of total revenues, surged 113% year over year to $171.6 million and jumped 21.2% sequentially [3] - Telecom & Networking revenues, comprising 5.2% of total revenues, rose 24.5% year over year to $24 million and increased 9.6% sequentially [3] Operating Results - Non-GAAP gross margin for Q3 2025 was 39.1%, up 280 basis points year over year and 100 basis points sequentially, benefiting from factory closures in China and lower tariff costs [4] - Non-GAAP operating expenses were $103.4 million, up 6.8% year over year but down 0.2% sequentially, with operating margin improving to 20.8% compared to 9.6% in the previous year [5] Balance Sheet & Cash Flow - As of September 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents stood at $758.6 million, an increase from $713.5 million as of June 30 [6] - Cash flow from operations was $79 million, up from $46.5 million in the previous quarter [6] Q4 Guidance - For Q4 2025, AEIS expects revenues near $470 million, with non-GAAP earnings projected at $1.75 per share [8][9] - The company anticipates a slight decline in semiconductor revenues sequentially, while expecting growth in Data Center Computing and Industrial & Medical revenues [10] - Overall, AEIS forecasts approximately 20% revenue growth for 2025, with Data Center revenues expected to double [11]

Summary of China Travel & Leisure Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China travel and leisure industry**, particularly the performance of various companies in the sector during **3Q25** [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments General Market Trends - **Weaker Disposable Income**: Disposable income growth slowed to **4.5%** in 3Q25 from **5.1%** in 2Q25, impacting consumption trends which fell to **3.4%** from **5.2%** [2][3]. - **Domestic Air Traffic**: Increased by **3%** year-over-year (yoy) in 3Q25, down from **6%** in 2Q25 [2]. - **Outbound Travel**: Normalized to **15%** yoy growth, significantly lower than **34%** and **24%** in 1Q and 2Q25 respectively, as flight capacity returned to pre-pandemic levels [2]. Company Performance Highlights - **Songcheng**: Reported a **10%** yoy revenue decline due to competition and health issues [3]. - **CTGDF**: Revenue decline narrowed to flat yoy in 3Q25 from **-11%** and **-8%** in previous quarters, with a **14%** increase during the Golden Week holidays [3][6]. - **Jinjiang and BTG**: RevPar improved to declines of **-2%** and **-3%** yoy, respectively, compared to **-5%** and **-6%** in 2Q25 [3][6]. - **Chinese Airlines**: Benefited from lower fuel costs and traffic recovery, with domestic traffic up **13%** and international traffic up **11%** [6]. - **Shiji**: Revenue increased by **7%** yoy, but net loss widened to **Rmb12 million** due to higher impairment losses [6]. Macau Casino Performance - **Macau GGR**: Increased by **13%** yoy in 3Q25, up from **8%** in 2Q25, driven by factors such as the wealth effect from the stock market and reduced diversion of travelers to other destinations [7]. - **Sands China and MGM**: Results exceeded expectations, with Sands China expected to report **US$1.901 billion** and MGM **US$1.091 billion** in revenue for 3Q25 [7][10]. Samsonite Expectations - Expected to report a narrower revenue decline of **-2%** yoy in 3Q25, improved from **-5%** in 2Q25, driven by better performance in the US and Asia [7][10]. Hotel Operators - **H World and Atour**: Both expected to report better-than-expected results due to stabilizing hotel RevPar and robust retail sales growth [7][10]. - **RevPar Forecasts**: H World and Atour projected declines of **-0.4%** and **-3%** yoy, respectively, with revenue growth forecasts of **+7%** and **+35%** yoy [8][10]. OTA Performance - **Trip.com and Tongcheng**: Expected to meet revenue guidance with Trip.com projected to grow **+15%** and Tongcheng **+9%** [9][10]. - **Profit Margins**: Potential for improved profit margins due to favorable revenue mix shifts towards higher-margin businesses [9]. Other Important Insights - **Investor Focus**: Investors are expected to pay close attention to companies' forward guidance during their 3Q25 results to assess the sustainability of the recovery [2][10]. - **Valuation Considerations**: Despite recent performance, share prices of US-listed chain hotels are still trading below mid-cycle valuations, indicating potential for upward earnings revisions [10][11]. Conclusion - The China travel and leisure industry is showing signs of recovery, although challenges remain due to weaker consumer spending and competition. Companies like H World, Atour, and TCOM are positioned well for growth, while Macau casinos are benefiting from a rebound in gaming revenue. Investors should remain cautious but optimistic about the sector's trajectory moving forward.

Core Viewpoint - The industrial enterprises in September showed a significant improvement in both revenue and profit, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 2.7% and profit growth of 21.6%, indicating a positive trend in the industrial sector despite previous fluctuations in earlier months [1][8][9]. Revenue and Profit Growth - In September, the revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 2.7% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.8 percentage points compared to August. The cumulative revenue growth for the first three quarters reached 2.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value [1][7][8]. - The profit for September saw a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, which is 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of over 20% profit growth. The cumulative profit growth for the first three quarters was 3.2% [1][9][8]. Profit Contribution Analysis - The profit contribution can be broken down into several factors: 1. The industrial added value jumped to a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, driven by export delivery rhythms and policy adjustments [2][11]. 2. The Producer Price Index (PPI) shifted from negative growth to zero growth in August and September, with a narrowing year-on-year decline [2][11]. 3. The profit margin improved, with the revenue profit margin for January to September at 5.26%, a year-on-year increase of 0.04 percentage points, marking the first positive change in profit margin this year [2][11][12]. 4. The improvement in profit margins in August was primarily due to alleviated cost pressures, while in September, it was attributed to a decrease in expenses [2][15]. Industry Performance - The industries leading in profit growth for the first three quarters included non-ferrous metals, essential consumer goods, midstream equipment manufacturing, and public utilities. All eight sectors within equipment manufacturing achieved positive growth [3][18]. - High-growth sub-sectors included smart consumer device manufacturing, electronic component manufacturing, and specialized equipment manufacturing [3][18]. - The industries with the largest profit declines were concentrated in energy and mining, as well as durable and semi-durable consumer goods [3][20]. Marginal Changes in September - The profit improvement in September was influenced by low base effects in sectors like computer communication electronics and automotive, while price recovery in coal, construction materials, and electrical machinery also contributed positively [4][23]. - The nominal inventory of industrial enterprises increased by 2.8% year-on-year by the end of September, while actual inventory growth was slightly lower at 5.1% [5][25][27]. Financial Stability - The asset-liability ratio for industrial enterprises remained stable at 58% as of the end of September, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points [5][29][30]. - Owner's equity grew by 4.7% year-on-year, reflecting a corresponding increase in profit growth, while liabilities increased by 5.2%, indicating a trend of slowing growth in liabilities since March [5][29][30]. Overall Outlook - The industrial sector's profits have maintained a high year-on-year growth rate of over 20% for two consecutive months, largely supported by base effects and price improvements. The cumulative profit growth for the first three quarters was 3.2%, suggesting a potential end to three consecutive years of negative profit growth [6][30].

Core Viewpoint - MGM China (02282) shares rose over 5%, reaching HKD 15.05, with a trading volume of HKD 87.37 million, driven by positive industry forecasts and analyst upgrades [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - Citigroup forecasts a 7% year-on-year increase in EBITDA for the Macau gaming operators in Q3, with MGM China expected to achieve a 13% year-on-year growth [1] - The anticipated higher EBITDA growth for MGM China compared to the industry may provide positive stock momentum ahead of the company's earnings announcement on October 30 [1] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating for MGM China, setting a target price of HKD 19, and includes it in the positive catalyst watchlist for October 30 [1] - Credit Lyonnais believes MGM China has revaluation potential, noting that its 2026 EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples remain low among six Macau gaming companies [1] - Following an assessment of market share, profit margins, return on capital, and dividend growth, Credit Lyonnais raised its target price for MGM China from HKD 18.3 to HKD 22.7, maintaining an "Outperform" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The AI rally is expected to expand into non-tech sectors, with potential beneficiaries in both direct AI applications and supply chain developments [1][2]. Group 1: AI Impact on Sectors - The AI trend is moving into power and utilities, leading to a significant rerating of stocks in these areas [3]. - AI is enhancing margins in labor-intensive sectors like healthcare, prompting an upgrade from underweight to overweight for healthcare stocks due to reduced margin risks [4]. - Various sectors of the economy are anticipated to benefit from AI advancements, although there are concerns about job creation in white-collar services, which could impact consumption growth [5]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Performance - The current market environment is characterized by high valuations, with the market cap to GDP of the S&P 500 reaching record highs, indicating an expensive market [7]. - There is an information vacuum regarding government data, leading to uncertainty about market conditions and potential underperformance from companies increasing capital expenditures [8][9]. - The near-term outlook is bearish, with a year-end target set below current levels, reflecting concerns about tariff and policy uncertainties affecting capital commitments and hiring [9][10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's unprecedented growth in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) of $317 billion in Q1 has created high expectations, shifting investor focus to the capital expenditure and profit margin impacts required for AI-driven success [3][6][8]. Group 1: RPO Growth and Market Expectations - Oracle's RPO increased to a record $317 billion, more than doubling its previous RPO stock, significantly altering Wall Street's growth expectations [3][6]. - The stock price surged by 36%, marking the largest single-day increase since 1992, with projections indicating RPO could exceed $500 billion by year-end, a 12-fold increase over five years [3][6]. - Analysts have raised revenue forecasts for Oracle's fiscal year 2029 from $99 billion to $167 billion due to this remarkable growth [6] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Profit Margin Concerns - Investors are now focused on the capital expenditure (CapEx) and profit margin implications of the large AI contracts, with Oracle raising its CapEx guidance for fiscal 2026 from over $25 billion to $35 billion [8]. - Barclays estimates that the gross margin for AI training business is slightly above 25%, leading to expectations that increased AI revenue may compress overall operating margins [8]. - Investors are keen to hear management's insights on unit economics, such as capital expenditure and revenue per gigawatt, to better assess Oracle's profitability outlook [8]. Group 3: Feasibility and Client Risk of Major Contracts - The $300 billion cloud computing agreement with OpenAI has raised concerns about Oracle's ability to deliver the required computing power amid potential supply chain constraints [11]. - There are doubts regarding OpenAI's capacity to pay for such a large contract, especially in light of its current revenue levels and cash burn [11]. - Recent announcements of large-scale computing agreements between OpenAI and other suppliers like NVIDIA and AMD have intensified concerns about Oracle's partnership stability and single-client risk [11]. Group 4: Management Changes and Financing - Oracle has appointed Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia as co-CEOs, a move seen as a positive shift towards a more traditional governance structure, alleviating long-standing succession concerns [13]. - The company successfully raised $18 billion in the debt market to support its AI data center initiatives, indicating market understanding of the need for financing to fulfill RPO commitments [13]. - The financing needs, leverage levels, and impacts on earnings per share are expected to be key discussion points during the analyst day [13]. Group 5: Strategic Investments - Oracle is set to become a major investor in TikTok's U.S. operations alongside Silver Lake and MGX, maintaining its role as a cloud service provider while potentially expanding its operational role [14]. - The details and investment implications of this transaction are anticipated to be discussed during the analyst day [14].

Core Insights - Levi Strauss & Co. raised its full-year revenue and profit forecast after a stronger-than-expected quarterly performance driven by robust denim demand and growth in direct-to-consumer sales [1] - Despite the positive outlook, shares fell over 11% following Morgan Stanley's analysis indicating disappointing profitability flow-through from the upgraded guidance [1] Financial Performance - For Q3, Levi reported earnings of $0.34 per share, exceeding Wall Street's consensus estimate of $0.30 [1] - Revenue increased to $1.54 billion from $1.50 billion year-over-year, surpassing analyst expectations of $1.50 billion [1] Future Guidance - The company now forecasts fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings of $1.27 to $1.32 per share, up from the previous range of $1.25 to $1.30 [2] - Levi raised its reported net revenue growth outlook to around 3%, an increase from the prior estimate of 1% to 2% [2] - Projected organic growth is now roughly 6%, compared to the earlier estimate of 4.5% to 5.5% [2] Margin Expectations - Gross margin is expected to expand by 100 basis points this year, an increase from the prior forecast of 80 basis points [2] - Adjusted EBIT margin is anticipated to remain between 11.4% and 11.6% [2]