日本总务省称，自2022年4月以来，这一关键通胀指标一直保持在或高于日本央行2%的目标。而日本央 行已强调了利率正常化以确保物价稳定的重要性。资源贫乏的日本严重依赖进口来满足其食品和能源需 求。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京11月21日电数据显示，受食品价格上涨的推动，日本10月份核心CPI较上年同期上涨 3.0%，这加剧了人们对央行将在不久的将来提高政策利率以抑制通胀的预期。 日本政府表示，剔除波动较大的生鲜食品后，全国物价较上月上涨，此前9月其涨幅已为2.9%，这凸显 出日元急剧贬值导致的进口成本上升所产生的负面影响。 ...

新华财经北京11月20日电美债收益率周四（20日）小幅走高，因投资者等待迟来的就业报告，该报告料将提供对美国经济健康状况的关 键洞察。 当天盘前，除1个月和2个月期美债外，其余期限美债收益率整体小幅上行。截至新华财经发稿时，2年期美债收益率上涨1.2BP至 3.61%，10年期美债收益率上涨1.3P至4.146%，30年期美债收益率小幅上涨0.3BP至4.755%。 美国劳工统计局定于美国东部时间上午8点30分发布这份报告，这可能会影响美联储即将在12月做出的利率决定。美国劳工统计局此前 表示，因政府停摆阻碍了家庭调查数据的收集，该机构将不再公布备受关注的10月非农就业报告，而是将其与11月的报告合并。 德意志银行的分析师们周四在一份报告中表示："人们的注意力现在迅速转向推迟的美国9月份就业报告，该报告本应在近7周前公布。" 他们补充称："通常情况下，几个月前发布的数据不会产生太大影响，但12月的降息可能取决于疲弱的数据，这显然是有可能的，尤其 是在就业岗位盈亏平衡率像2025年那样低的情况下。" 此外，投资者还在消化美联储周三下午公布的10月份会议纪要。该会议纪要突显出，在就业市场放缓还是通胀对美国经济构成 ...

日元持续贬值跌至十个月低点后，日本央行审议委员小枝淳子表示，日本央行需要推进正常化，暗示最早可能在下个月加息。 周四，小枝淳子在新潟向商界领袖发表演讲时明确表示： "鉴于实际利率目前处于非常低的水平，我认为央行需要推进利率正常化。" 这是自她3月份加入审议委员会以来的首次演讲，其鹰派立场被视为可能在日本央行内部获得更广泛支持的信号。 然而，市场对此的反应却颇为微妙。在小枝淳子讲话后，日元兑美元汇率短暂下跌后才收复部分失地，交易在157附近。这表明投资者可能期待 更强硬的加息承诺。与此同时，日本内阁官房长官木原稔对近期"单向、突然"的汇率波动表示担忧，强调汇率稳定并反映基本面的重要性。 这一系列动态让投资者紧盯日本央行12月18日至19日的政策会议。据路透社对81位经济学家进行的调查显示，有43位（占比53%）预计央行将在 此次会议上加息25个基点至0.75%。政策制定者正试图在抑制输入性通胀和支持经济增长之间寻找平衡，而日元的走势似乎已经成为影响决策的 关键变量。 日本政府高度警惕，日元贬值引担忧 日元的快速贬值已引起日本政府的高度警惕。内阁官房长官木原稔周四在新闻发布会上表示，对近期外汇市场单向、突然的波动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy adjustments will depend on a detailed assessment of economic and price trends, despite inflation gradually approaching the 2% target [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Potential inflation is gradually moving towards the 2% target, but there is insufficient evidence to confirm its stability [1]. - Recent inflation rates in Japan have exceeded potential inflation rates, indicating a relatively strong performance in overall prices [3]. - The Bank of Japan will monitor temporary supply-side factors, such as rising food prices, which may affect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Bank of Japan emphasizes a gradual approach to normalizing monetary policy, opposing hasty actions [1][2]. - There is a necessity to normalize interest rates to avoid future distortions, with a clear indication that the central bank should continue to raise policy rates based on economic activity and price improvements [2]. - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates by December 2025, with recent statements reinforcing this expectation [2]. Group 3: Currency and Market Stability - The impact of yen fluctuations on domestic prices is a significant concern, with a focus on how exchange rate stability reflects economic fundamentals [1]. - The Bank of Japan is prepared to intervene in the market through increased bond purchases and emergency operations to maintain market stability during rapid and irregular fluctuations in long-term yields [1].

（文章来源：新华财经） 在日元兑美元跌至约10个月来最低水平之际，日本央行审议委员小枝淳子周四释放信号，称可能最早于 下月加息，并强调推进利率正常化的必要性。 小枝淳子在新潟市向当地商界领袖发表演讲时表示："鉴于实际利率目前处于显著偏低的水平，我认为 央行有必要推进利率正常化。" 此次讲话后，日元兑美元进一步走弱，显示投资者可能正在等待更明确的加息信号。市场普遍预期日本 央行最迟将在明年1月加息，而小枝淳子的言论强化了12月存在行动可能性的预期。 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 据报道，日本央行审议委员小枝淳子表示，必须使利率正常化，以避免未来造成扭曲；潜在通胀率目前 约为2%，得益于日本近期经济指标总体稳健、劳动力市场状况紧张以及供需平衡基本恢复正常。 ...

Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index has reached a historic high, surpassing 52,000 points for the first time, with an intraday increase of over 1,000 points and a peak gain of more than 2% [1] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index also hit a record high, with semiconductor, consumer, and electric sectors leading the gains [1] Company Highlights - Semiconductor design company Socionext saw its stock hit the limit up, with a gain of 16.72%, and is set to hold an earnings meeting on October 31, where it will announce mid-term performance up to September 30, 2025 [2] - Socionext has begun developing 3nm ADAS and customized SoCs for autonomous driving, expected to enter mass production in 2026, utilizing TSMC's N3A process [2] - Other notable stocks include Renesas Electronics and Hitachi, both rising over 9%, while Kansai Electric Power increased by over 6% [2] Economic Indicators - Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI) for October rose by 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target for over three years [2][3] - The CPI increase was higher than the market expectation of 2.6% and up from 2.5% in September [2] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the policy interest rate at approximately 0.5%, marking the sixth consecutive meeting without a rate change [4] - The decision was made despite predictions of a potential rate hike to curb unexpected inflation, with a vote of 7 in favor and 2 against maintaining the current rate [4] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that external economic uncertainties, particularly from the U.S., will be closely monitored [4][5]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain its policy interest rate has reinforced market expectations for a cautious approach to monetary tightening under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's leadership [1][2] - The outcome of the monetary policy meeting, with only two board members supporting a rate hike, is interpreted as a dovish signal, leading to a depreciation of the yen and support for Japanese government bonds [1][3] - Analysts believe that the likelihood of a rate hike before 2026 is low, given the Bank of Japan's stable inflation forecasts and voting results [1] Group 2 - Strategists from Standard Chartered and ANZ Bank emphasize that the Bank of Japan's cautious stance on monetary policy normalization may keep the yen below the 150 level against the dollar [2] - The market is closely watching for signals from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, particularly regarding communication with the Kishida government, which leans towards a dovish monetary policy [2] - The recent policy statement closely resembles the previous one, leading to potential disappointment among yen bulls regarding Ueda's future comments [2][3] Group 3 - The decision by the Bank of Japan aligns with market expectations for a dovish monetary policy under Kishida, potentially providing breathing room for the Japanese stock market [3] - Despite the decision slightly exceeding expectations, the support for a low-interest-rate environment continues to pressure the yen, resulting in a slight rebound of the dollar against the yen [3] - The limited opposition to maintaining the current rate, with only two members dissenting, suggests that the Bank of Japan may resume rate hikes in the coming months [3]

Group 1: Market Reaction to Fed Signals - The market's risk appetite was significantly boosted following Fed Chair Powell's dovish signals at Jackson Hole, with expectations of a rate cut after a 9-month pause [1][4] - Historical data shows that in 11 instances where the Fed resumed rate cuts after a 5-12 month pause, the S&P 500 index rose in 10 cases, averaging a 12.9% increase over the next year [3] Group 2: Employment and Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims rose to 1.972 million, the highest level since November 2021, indicating potential layoffs and a softening labor market [3] - The upcoming release of the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and the August non-farm payroll report will be critical for assessing inflation and employment dynamics [6] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Sector Performance - Investors are currently focused on how many times the Fed will cut rates and the pace of these cuts, with concerns about the labor market outweighing inflation worries [7] - The technology sector is facing scrutiny, with a high P/E ratio of around 30, and warnings that 95% of companies investing in AI have not seen returns [7] - Small-cap stocks, particularly those with more floating-rate debt, are expected to benefit from lower interest rates, as evidenced by the Russell 2000 index outperforming major indices [8]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation are not as severe as initially announced, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy considerations [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Daly suggests that if tariff measures are not in place, the normalization of interest rates will be considered [1] - Continuous decline in inflation is viewed as positive news [1]