9月5日，A股三大指数震荡上行，中证石化产业指数震荡走高，现涨超1.1%，成分股方面，蓝晓科 技、联泓新科、盐湖股份等领涨。相关ETF方面，石化ETF（159731）跟随指数上行，处于较好布局时 点。 消息面上，近日，由中集集团旗下中集天达承建的裕龙石化炼化一体化项目（一期）配套自动化立 体仓库全面竣工投产。该项目总投资近3.5亿元，是目前国内化工行业规模超大、技术领先的智能立体 仓库，标志着我国在高端物流装备制造和智能系统集成领域实现新突破。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 国信证券认为，随着化工行业"反内卷"工作推进，国有企业主动进行产能控制，监管部门对新增落 后产能审批控制，行业低效产能有望加速出清，供需结构逐步优化，化工行业或将实现盈利修复。展望 2025年9月，部分化工产品海外需求复苏，内需也有望进一步发力，中长期供需格局有望改善。 石化ET ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is facing significant "involution" competition, leading to a decline in profit margins, with the industry's operating income profit margin dropping from 8.03% in 2021 to 4.85% in 2024, and remaining low in the first half of 2025 [2] Oil Price Trends - In August, international crude oil prices showed volatility, with Brent crude settling from $69.7 per barrel at the beginning of the month to $68.1 per barrel at the end, and WTI crude dropping from $67.3 per barrel to $64.2 per barrel [4] - The supply side is influenced by OPEC+ production increases and a decline in U.S. shale oil rig counts, while weak global economic recovery suppresses long-term demand expectations [4] - Short-term support comes from seasonal fuel consumption and a temporary decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories [4] Industry Competition and Policy - The petrochemical industry is experiencing severe competition characterized by low-quality and homogeneous products, resulting in a profit squeeze due to over-investment and capacity oversupply [2][3] - The central government has initiated comprehensive rectification measures to address these issues, including promoting self-discipline, enhancing innovation, and eliminating non-compliant capacities based on energy efficiency and environmental standards [2][3] Chemical Industry Performance - As of August 29, the China Chemical Products Price Index (CCPI) reported 4009 points, a 7.48% decrease from January 2's 4333 points, indicating a slight decline in major chemical product prices [5] - The manufacturing PMI for July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in market demand [5] Sector-Specific Insights - **Refining and Petrochemicals**: China's refining capacity exceeds 1 billion tons/year, but utilization rates have dropped to around 70%, indicating structural oversupply [6] - **Ethylene**: The domestic ethylene market faces a supply gap, with a projected net import of 214.5 million tons in 2024, highlighting the competitive advantage of low-cost production methods [7] - **Potash Fertilizer**: Recommended investment in YK International, which has significant potash resources and is expanding production capacity [8] - **Fluorochemicals**: The market for refrigerants is expected to see price increases due to structural changes and demand growth in liquid cooling technologies [9] Investment Recommendations - The investment portfolio includes YK International, China Petroleum, Baofeng Energy, Juhua Co., and Satellite Chemical, focusing on sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics and unique resource attributes [10]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 09 月 01 日 正丁醇、氢氟酸价格涨幅居前，建议关注化工龙头白马 招商化工行业周报 2025 年 8 月第 4 周 周期/化工 本报告阐述了基础化工板块一周行情走势、产品价格及价差变化、重点推荐子 行业及公司。 板块整体走势 8 月第 4 周化工板块（申万）上涨 1.11%，上证 A 指上涨 0.83%，板块领先 大盘 0.28 个百分点。涨幅排名前 5 的个股分别为：云南能投（+33.84%）， 亚星化学（+17.61%），巨化股份（+17.24%），安利股份（+17.23%），云 图控股（+12.61%）；跌幅排名前 5 的个股分别为：科恒股份（-18.25%）， 恒大高新（-9.72%），天晟新材（-9.18%），蓝丰生化（-9.09%），裕兴股 份（-8.85%）。此外，本周化工板块（申万）动态 PE 为 28.83 倍，高于 2015 年来的平均 PE 5.81%。 细分子行业走势 8 月第 4 周化工行业 21 个子行业上涨，10 个子行业下跌。上涨子行业前五是： 氟化工及制冷剂（+15.56%），玻纤（+14.2%），氮肥（+7.71%），无机盐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry has recently attracted significant attention from institutional investors, particularly through the Penghua CSI Sub-Industry Chemical ETF, which saw its scale grow from 1.4 billion to over 10 billion in just one month, indicating a shift in market dynamics and investment interest [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The chemical sector has historically been viewed unfavorably due to its complex linkages with various industries and macroeconomic cycles, but recent policy changes are reshaping its fundamentals [1][4]. - The Chinese government is actively promoting the elimination and upgrading of outdated petrochemical facilities, which is part of a broader "anti-involution" strategy aimed at optimizing industry structure and reducing inefficient competition [4][7]. - Similar trends are observed globally, with Europe and South Korea also undergoing significant capacity reductions in the chemical sector, creating opportunities for Chinese refining companies [4][7]. Group 2: Institutional Investment - The "national team" of institutional investors, including major insurance funds and social security funds, has shown strong support for the chemical sector, with significant holdings in the Penghua CSI Sub-Industry Chemical ETF [8][10]. - The top five holders of the ETF include Central Huijin, China Life Insurance, and other institutional investors, indicating a robust backing from large financial entities [9][10]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Potential - The chemical sector is currently trading at historically low valuation levels, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.23, positioning it favorably for long-term investment [13]. - Analysts are optimistic about the sector's potential for recovery, with expectations of improved profitability as policies take effect and supply-side adjustments occur [14][15]. - The Penghua CSI Sub-Industry Chemical ETF is highlighted as a unique investment vehicle due to its scale and liquidity, while other ETFs like the Fortune CSI Sub-Industry Chemical ETF and Huabao Chemical ETF have also shown strong performance [17][18].

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a significant rally on August 26, with the Chemical ETF (516020) rising over 2% at one point and closing up 1.67% [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector included Zhonghua International, which hit the daily limit, and Zhongke Titanium, which surged over 9%, while several others like Xin Fengming and Luxi Chemical rose over 5% [1][2] - Recent trends indicate a push towards "anti-involution" in various chemical sub-industries, suggesting that both administrative and self-regulatory measures are needed for improvement [1][3] Group 2 - Huatai Securities noted that the industry's profitability is at a low point, and with policy guidance, supply-side adjustments are expected to accelerate, potentially improving profitability for bulk chemical products [3] - The chemical sector is anticipated to benefit from increased demand driven by economic growth in regions like Africa and Latin America, with exports becoming a crucial growth engine [3] - Current valuations for the chemical sector are attractive, with the Chemical ETF's underlying index trading at a price-to-book ratio of 2.22, which is at a low percentile compared to the last decade [3][4] Group 3 - Open-source Securities highlighted that as specific policies are implemented, some outdated capacities in the chemical industry may be eliminated, leading to an optimized competitive landscape and improved profitability [4] - The Chemical ETF (516020) is positioned to provide efficient exposure to the sector, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks, allowing investors to capitalize on strong performance opportunities [4]

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a significant rally on August 26, with the Chemical ETF (516020) rising over 2% at one point and closing up 1.67% [1] - Key stocks in the sector included Zhonghua International, which hit the daily limit, and Zhongke Titanium, which surged over 9% [1] - Other notable gainers included Xin Fengming and Luxi Chemical, both rising over 5%, while several other stocks increased by more than 4% [1] Group 2 - Recent trends indicate that various sub-sectors within the chemical industry are pushing for a "de-involution" strategy, suggesting a need for both administrative and self-regulatory measures [1] - Successful cases in the refrigerant industry highlight the importance of policy in driving industry changes, with potential for similar outcomes in polyester and viscose sectors [1] - Huatai Securities noted that the industry is at a profit bottom, with supply-side adjustments expected to improve profitability for bulk chemical products [3] Group 3 - The chemical industry is anticipated to benefit from a slowdown in global capacity expansion, with strong cash flow potentially leading to higher dividend yields [5] - The Chemical ETF (516020) tracks a comprehensive index covering various chemical sub-sectors, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap stocks [6] - The ETF provides an efficient way for investors to gain exposure to the chemical sector, which includes leading companies in phosphate, fluorine, and nitrogen fertilizers [6]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the Chemical ETF (516020) showing a price increase of 1.15% as of the latest report [1] - The Chemical ETF has a significant portion of its holdings in large-cap stocks, including Wanhu Chemical and Salt Lake Shares, allowing investors to capitalize on strong market leaders [4] - Key stocks in the chemical sector, such as Hanjin Technology and Hongda Shares, have seen substantial gains, with Hanjin Technology hitting the daily limit and Hongda Shares rising over 5% [1][3] Group 2 - Zhongyuan Securities indicates that the chemical industry is moving towards a phase of recovery as the issue of overcapacity and excessive competition is expected to ease [3] - Debon Securities notes that the current cycle of chemical capacity expansion is nearing its end, with capital expenditure and fixed asset growth rates showing a downward trend [3] - Donghai Securities highlights that the domestic chemical industry is likely to see structural optimization, with significant cost advantages and technological advancements positioning Chinese companies to fill gaps in the global supply chain [3]

Group 1 - The chemical industry is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the China Securities Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813) rising by 1.45% as of August 21, 2025, and key stocks such as Zhongke Titanium White (002145) and Satellite Chemical (002648) seeing increases of 5.84% and 5.78% respectively [1] - The energy chemical sector has a substantial impact on the Producer Price Index (PPI), accounting for 25%-30% of its composition. The current negative PPI growth of -3.6% in July 2025 indicates that a rebound in energy chemical prices could be crucial for boosting overall industrial inflation [2] - The chemical industry is facing dual pressures of declining product prices and reduced capacity utilization, leading to a profit squeeze. By 2024, nearly 25% of chemical companies are projected to incur losses, with profits in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector dropping by 9.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [2] Group 2 - The supply-demand dynamics in the chemical sector are improving, with the current capital expenditure and fixed asset growth rates showing a downward trend since 2021. Demand is expected to gradually recover due to policy support for real estate stabilization and easing of tariffs between China and the U.S. [2] - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the chemical industry is 2.0, which is at the lower end of the range observed over the past decade. This suggests that stock prices may lead the fundamentals out of the cyclical bottom, indicating significant upside potential [2] - The China Securities Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme Index consists of seven sub-indices, including those for non-ferrous metals and machinery, and is designed to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in the chemical sector. As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in this index accounted for 43.54% of the total [3]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a rise in opening prices, with institutions indicating that the "anti-involution" trend may lead to a recovery in chemical industry prosperity, benefiting leading companies [1] - Key factors for potential investment opportunities in the chemical industry include stricter new project approvals, the positive impact of old facility renovations, attempts at industry self-discipline, and rising energy consumption standards [1] - As of August 21, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) increased by 1.25%, with notable stock performances including: Nucor Titanium (002145) up 8.76%, Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) up 5.24%, and Dongfang Shenghong (000301) up 3.24% [1] Group 2 - The Chemical ETF (159870) closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, which consists of seven sub-indices reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in related sub-industries [2] - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) accounted for 43.54% of the index, including companies like Wanhua Chemical (600309) and Yilong Co. (000792) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is transitioning from a focus on market share to profitability, indicating a potential new cycle as production expansion comes to an end and policies are gradually implemented [1][7]. Industry Challenges - Since 2022, the chemical industry has faced price declines and increased competition, leading to many companies experiencing revenue growth without profit [2]. - Despite domestic demand stabilization from various policies, supply-side competition has intensified, resulting in lower product prices and utilization rates, which has kept overall profit levels low [2][3]. Current Industry Position - The bottom position of the industry appears to be well-defined, with high concentration in most sub-industries limiting further optimization through concentration increases [3]. - The driving force of the chemical market is shifting from demand stimulation to supply-side reform, necessitating a focus on optimizing supply-demand dynamics for high-quality development [3]. Self-Regulation and Policy Coordination - The current phase of the chemical industry's anti-involution process is at the initial stage of policy and industry assessment, with industry associations promoting self-regulation among companies [4]. - Historical experiences suggest that self-regulation effects are often short-lived, and temporary production cuts can lead to a rebound in operating rates, returning to a supply surplus situation [4]. Specific Industry Insights - The polyester filament industry is entering a period of slow capacity growth, with profitability improvements driven by policies to eliminate about 10% of outdated capacity and joint production cuts by leading companies [5]. - The viscose staple fiber industry has seen no new capacity in the past five years, maintaining a stable supply-demand balance, with strict carbon emission policies curbing new capacity as a driving factor [5][6]. Future Industry Outlook - The anti-involution direction for the chemical industry is clear, with a shift towards profitability through capacity elimination and enhanced self-regulation [7]. - The industry is currently in a policy vacuum, but as more policies are implemented, the issues of internal competition are expected to improve [7]. - Investment opportunities are anticipated in major sectors like petrochemicals and coal chemicals, with a focus on leading companies in these areas [7][8].