Core Insights - The National Energy Administration released the "2024 National Renewable Energy Power Development Monitoring and Evaluation Results," indicating a strong overall completion of renewable energy consumption responsibility across provinces [1][2] Group 1: Renewable Energy Capacity and Generation - As of the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy in the country reached 1.889 billion kilowatts, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 24.4%, accounting for 56.4% of total power installed capacity [1] - In 2024, the newly added installed capacity of renewable energy was 375 million kilowatts, including 13.79 million kilowatts from hydropower, 81.37 million kilowatts from on-grid wind power, 278 million kilowatts from on-grid solar power, and 2.31 million kilowatts from biomass power [1] - The total renewable energy generation reached 3.47 trillion kilowatt-hours, which accounted for 35% of the total power generation [1] Group 2: Utilization Rates - The average utilization rate for wind power in 2024 was 95.9%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The utilization rate for photovoltaic power was 96.8%, down by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The utilization rate for hydropower in major river basins was approximately 99.0%, a decline of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 3: High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) Transmission - The 20 HVDC lines delivered an annual transmission volume of 705.3 billion kilowatt-hours, with renewable energy accounting for 400.8 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 22.2% year-on-year [1] - Renewable energy accounted for 56.8% of the total transmission volume of all HVDC lines, an increase of 4.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 4: Clean Energy Demonstration Provinces - The monitoring results also reported on the implementation status of five national clean energy demonstration provinces (regions), where the share of renewable energy consumption in total electricity consumption increased in Zhejiang, Ningxia, Gansu, and Qinghai [2]

Core Viewpoint - The green certificate market in China has shown significant growth in both volume and price, indicating a strong demand for renewable energy and its environmental value [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - From January to September, the trading volume of green certificates reached 529 million, a year-on-year increase of 110% [2]. - The average trading price of green certificates in the third quarter was 5.06 yuan per certificate, representing a 210% increase compared to the first quarter [2]. Group 2: Market Mechanism Improvement - The introduction of long-term green power purchase agreements (PPA) has led to a trading volume exceeding 30 billion kilowatt-hours [2]. - Breakthroughs in cross-regional green power trading have been achieved by State Grid and Southern Grid, with distributed project aggregation reaching 2.8 billion kilowatt-hours [2]. Group 3: Expanding Market Demand - The implementation of the Energy Law has prompted authorities to push for minimum renewable energy consumption targets, particularly in industries like steel, cement, and polysilicon [2]. - A draft for the implementation of minimum renewable energy consumption targets and responsibility weights is being prepared, with public consultation underway [2]. Group 4: Increasing Market Recognition - The National Energy Administration has intensified promotional efforts for green certificates, organizing various campaigns across key regions [3]. - The international green power consumption initiative RE100 has fully recognized Chinese green certificates, marking a significant advancement in international acceptance [3]. Group 5: Future Development Plans - The National Energy Administration plans to revise and expedite the implementation of renewable energy consumption targets for more key energy-consuming industries [3]. - There will be ongoing improvements to the trading mechanisms for green certificates, including the issuance of certificates for distributed generation projects and the establishment of a green certificate price index [3].

Core Insights - The green certificate market in China has shown significant growth in both volume and price, with a trading scale of 529 million certificates from January to September, representing a year-on-year increase of 110% [1] - The average trading price of green certificates reached 5.06 yuan per certificate in the third quarter, a 210% increase compared to the first quarter, highlighting the growing environmental value of renewable energy electricity [1] Group 1: Market Mechanism Improvement - The introduction of long-term green power purchase agreements (PPA) has led to a trading scale exceeding 30 billion kilowatt-hours [1] - Breakthroughs in cross-regional green power trading have been achieved by State Grid and Southern Power Grid, with distributed project aggregation reaching 2.8 billion kilowatt-hours [1] Group 2: Expanding Market Demand - The implementation of energy laws has prompted authorities to push for minimum renewable energy consumption targets, enhancing the responsibility for renewable energy electricity consumption [1] - New requirements for renewable energy electricity consumption ratios have been established for key industries such as steel, cement, polysilicon, and newly built data centers [1] Group 3: Increasing Market Recognition - The National Energy Administration has intensified promotional efforts for green certificates, conducting various campaigns across regions [2] - The international green power consumption initiative RE100 has fully recognized Chinese green certificates, marking a significant advancement in their international acceptance and influence [2] Group 4: Future Development Plans - The focus will be on cultivating demand for green certificates and promoting high-quality market development [2] - Plans include revising and expediting the implementation of renewable energy consumption minimum ratio targets and enhancing the trading mechanisms for green certificates [2]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission has released a draft for public consultation regarding the implementation of minimum renewable energy consumption ratio targets and renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight system, aimed at promoting high-quality development of renewable energy and achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [1]. Group 1: General Principles - The purpose of the draft is to promote high-quality development of renewable energy and ensure its minimum consumption ratio in energy use, in accordance with the Energy Law and the Renewable Energy Law of the People's Republic of China [3]. - The draft applies to the establishment, monitoring, and assessment of minimum renewable energy consumption ratio targets for energy users and provincial administrative regions [3]. Group 2: Minimum Renewable Energy Consumption Ratio Targets - The minimum renewable energy consumption ratio refers to the proportion of renewable energy consumed by energy users in their total energy consumption, divided into electricity consumption and non-electric consumption targets [4]. - The government will identify key energy-consuming industries and set minimum renewable energy consumption ratio targets along with transition periods, with ongoing monitoring and evaluation [4][5]. - The Ministry of Energy will issue annual minimum renewable energy consumption ratio targets, which provincial energy departments will implement [6]. Group 3: Renewable Energy Power Consumption Responsibility Weight - The renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight indicates the proportion of renewable energy consumed in each provincial region relative to the total electricity consumption [7]. - The Ministry of Energy will conduct unified calculations of these weights and issue them annually [11]. - Provincial energy departments are responsible for implementing plans to ensure stable utilization rates of wind and solar power [12]. Group 4: Monitoring, Evaluation, and Accountability - The Ministry of Energy will monitor the implementation of minimum renewable energy consumption ratio targets and responsibility weights quarterly and publish the results [19]. - Annual evaluations will be conducted to assess the completion of these targets, with reports submitted by provincial energy departments [20]. - Non-compliance with the targets will lead to regulatory actions, including mandatory completion through green certificate trading [10].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission has released a draft proposal to establish minimum renewable energy consumption targets and responsibilities for renewable energy power consumption, aiming to promote a green energy transition in China [1][3]. Group 1: Renewable Energy Consumption Targets - The draft introduces minimum renewable energy consumption targets for key energy-consuming industries and provincial regions, with a focus on green certificate trading, self-use of renewable energy, and direct green electricity connections as primary consumption methods [1][5]. - The proposal aims to create clear market demand for various renewable energy sources, including geothermal and biomass energy, thereby assisting companies in complying with international carbon regulations [1][3]. Group 2: Implementation Mechanism - The draft outlines a systematic and detailed approach, including accounting methods, assessment targets, and penalties for non-compliance, indicating a long-term and stable execution mechanism for renewable energy policies [4][5]. - The policy emphasizes the need for monitoring and assessment of renewable energy consumption responsibilities at the provincial and energy consumption entity levels, providing a foundational method for societal participation in renewable energy consumption [5][8]. Group 3: Green Certificate Market - The green certificate system, established in 2017, has matured but previously suffered from low trading volumes due to voluntary participation. The draft now links mandatory consumption responsibilities to green certificate purchases, potentially increasing trading volumes and prices [6][8]. - This change is expected to activate the green certificate market, providing a clear value for compliance and driving demand for green certificates [6]. Group 4: Non-Electric Renewable Energy Applications - The draft includes minimum consumption targets for non-electric renewable energy applications, such as heating and hydrogen production, creating significant market opportunities for industries like solar thermal utilization and biomass heating [8][9]. - The policy provides a pathway for recognizing the environmental value of "green heat," which is crucial for industries reliant on thermal energy, helping them comply with international carbon regulations [8][9].

Core Points - The article discusses the implementation of the "Minimum Proportion Target for Renewable Energy Consumption and the Responsibility Weight System for Renewable Energy Power Consumption" to promote high-quality development of renewable energy and achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [2][3]. Group 1: Renewable Energy Consumption Minimum Proportion Target - The minimum proportion target for renewable energy consumption refers to the share of renewable energy in the total energy consumption of energy users, divided into electricity and non-electric consumption categories [5][7]. - The government will set minimum proportion targets for key energy-consuming industries and monitor their progress, encouraging regions to establish their own targets [7][8]. - The completion of the minimum proportion targets will be verified using renewable energy green power certificates [8][9]. Group 2: Renewable Energy Power Consumption Responsibility Weight - The responsibility weight for renewable energy power consumption is defined as the proportion of renewable energy consumed in a region compared to the total electricity consumption [9][10]. - The government will calculate and assign these responsibility weights annually, with local energy departments responsible for implementation [10][12]. - Electric grid companies are required to support the implementation of renewable energy consumption plans and enhance their capacity to absorb renewable energy [10][11]. Group 3: Monitoring and Evaluation - The government will conduct quarterly monitoring and annual evaluations of the implementation of the minimum proportion targets and responsibility weights, with results published [12][14]. - Local energy departments must report on the completion status of these targets annually, and any failures to meet the targets will lead to regulatory actions [16][14]. Group 4: Implementation Timeline - The new measures are set to take effect from a specified date in 2026, with additional regulations for sustainable aviation fuel consumption to be developed separately [18][19].

Core Points - The article discusses the implementation of a draft regulation aimed at establishing minimum consumption targets for renewable energy and a responsibility weight system for renewable energy power consumption in China, in line with the Energy Law of the People's Republic of China [1][2][3] Group 1: Renewable Energy Consumption Targets - The minimum consumption target for renewable energy refers to the proportion of renewable energy consumed by energy users in their total energy consumption [3] - The targets are divided into two categories: minimum targets for renewable energy electricity consumption and non-electric consumption [3] - The electricity consumption target includes all types of renewable energy generation, while the non-electric consumption target includes renewable heating, hydrogen production, and biofuels [3] Group 2: Implementation and Monitoring - The State Council's energy authorities will determine key energy-consuming industries and set specific minimum consumption targets and transition periods, with ongoing monitoring and evaluation [4] - The annual targets for renewable energy electricity consumption and non-electric consumption will be issued by the State Council's energy authorities, with provincial energy departments responsible for implementation [6][12] - Compliance with the minimum consumption targets will be verified using renewable energy green power certificates [5][9] Group 3: Responsibility Weight for Renewable Energy Consumption - The responsibility weight for renewable energy consumption is defined as the proportion of renewable energy consumed in each provincial region relative to the total electricity consumption [8] - The State Council's energy authorities will conduct unified calculations of the responsibility weights for each province and issue them annually [11] - Provincial energy departments will develop implementation plans to ensure the stable utilization of wind and solar power [12] Group 4: Evaluation and Accountability - The State Council's energy authorities will conduct quarterly monitoring and annual evaluations of the implementation of the minimum consumption targets and responsibility weights [10][11] - Enterprises that fail to meet the minimum consumption targets will be required to make up the shortfall through green certificate trading or other market-based methods within three months [12][13] - Non-compliance may result in increased scrutiny and potential penalties for the responsible enterprises [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic aluminum processing industry is showing signs of mild recovery, with an overall operating rate of 60% among leading companies, and expectations for improved performance as the consumption peak season approaches [1][5]. Group 1: Aluminum Production and Capacity - In July, China's electrolytic aluminum production reached 3.7214 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.05% and a month-on-month increase of 3.11% [1]. - As of the end of July, the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.69 million tons, with an operating capacity of 43.90 million tons [1]. - The second batch of replacement projects in Yunnan has commenced production, which is expected to boost the industry's operating rate and lead to slight production growth [1]. Group 2: Aluminum Prices and Market Trends - The main aluminum futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has shown a rebound, approaching the 21,000 yuan/ton mark, with expectations for a strong oscillating price pattern due to slight supply increases and improved consumption outlook [1][5]. - As of August 22, the domestic electrolytic aluminum cost was 16,718.55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.11 yuan/ton from the beginning of August, while profits stood at 3,991.45 yuan/ton, an increase of 201.11 yuan/ton [3]. Group 3: Import and Inventory Dynamics - In July, China's primary aluminum imports totaled 248,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 29.1% and a year-on-year increase of 91.2%, with Russia accounting for 76.85% of the total imports [2]. - As of August 22, aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 124,605 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.28%, marking a three-month high [2]. Group 4: Automotive Industry Impact - In July, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 13.3% and 14.7%, despite a month-on-month decline due to seasonal factors [4]. - The automotive market is expected to continue growing in the second half of the year, supported by favorable policies and new model launches, with total vehicle sales projected to reach 32.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [4][22]. Core Insights - The construction of zero-carbon parks is being accelerated, with the release of renewable energy power consumption responsibility weights expected by 2025 [1][17]. - The report highlights the increasing responsibility weights for renewable energy consumption across various provinces, with most provinces expected to exceed 20% by 2025 [17][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating renewable energy development with energy management systems to achieve carbon neutrality [22][23]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.82%, while the public utility index increased by 1.11% and the environmental index by 3.17% [1][24]. - Within the electricity sector, coal-fired power increased by 0.41%, hydropower by 0.42%, and renewable energy generation by 1.05% [1][25]. Important Policies and Events - The National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and National Energy Administration issued a notice to accelerate the transformation of energy structures in parks and promote energy conservation and carbon reduction [15][16]. - Hainan Province's implementation plan for market-oriented reform of renewable energy grid prices includes a pricing structure for existing projects and competitive bidding for new projects [16] . Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major coal-fired power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [3][22]. - The report suggests that nuclear power companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power will maintain stable profitability [3][22]. - In the environmental sector, companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [23][22]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Huadian International: Outperform, with an expected EPS of 0.46 in 2024 and 0.62 in 2025 [8]. - Longyuan Power: Outperform, with an expected EPS of 0.75 in 2024 and 0.85 in 2025 [8]. - China Nuclear Power: Outperform, with an expected EPS of 0.46 in 2024 and 0.50 in 2025 [8]. Industry Dynamics and Company Announcements - The report notes that the water and waste incineration sectors are entering a mature phase, with significant improvements in free cash flow [23]. - The report also highlights the potential for domestic waste oil recycling companies to benefit from the EU's SAF blending policy [23]. Industry Key Data Overview - In May, the industrial power generation increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with a total of 737.8 billion kWh generated [49][60]. - The total electricity consumption in May reached 809.6 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.43% [57][60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon continued to rebound. The main reason is that relevant national departments will focus on comprehensively managing the low - price and disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry, promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity, and focusing on accelerating the high - quality development of the industry. All links in the industrial chain are expected to achieve capacity transfer and profit repair. The supply side remains in a tight state, and the demand side shows that the installation volume of photovoltaic ground power stations may slow down significantly in the third quarter. Technically, the futures price has confirmed the bottom support and its center of gravity is gradually moving up, and it is expected to show an upward rebound trend in the short term [2][5][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Data | Contract | July 11 | July 4 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial Silicon Main Contract | 8415.00 | 7980.00 | 435.00 | 5.45% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - Blown 553 Spot | 8850.00 | 8750.00 | 100.00 | 1.14% | Yuan/ton | | Non - Oxygen - Blown 553 Spot | 8650.00 | 8500.00 | 150.00 | 1.76% | Yuan/ton | | 421 Spot | 9200.00 | 9050.00 | 150.00 | 1.66% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 Spot | 10200.00 | 10200.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Organic Silicon DMC Spot | 10800.00 | 10450.00 | 350.00 | 3.35% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon Dense Material Spot | 31.00 | 31.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial Silicon Social Inventory | 55.1 | 55.2 | - 0.1 | - 0.18% | Ten thousand tons | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Supply Side**: The operating rate in Xinjiang is maintained at around 50%, the operating rate in Yunnan has rebounded to over 30% during the wet season, and the output in Sichuan is relatively low. The supply side remains in a tight state [2][5][8]. - **Demand Side**: In July, the start - up of polysilicon has not changed significantly, and some crystal - pulling factories only maintain low inventories. The silicon wafer price is supported by the upstream silicon material price, and the production schedule in July will decrease by 10% month - on - month. The operating rate of photovoltaic cell manufacturers is extremely low, and market demand has weakened significantly. The component market is cautious about price adjustment and prefers to keep prices stable. Driven by the anti - involution policy, manufacturers have no intention to continue the strategy of trading volume with price. The leading photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to jointly cut production by 30% in response to the policy. The social inventory last week was maintained at 551,000 tons, and the spot market is gradually stabilizing and rising under the pull of the policy [2][5][8]. - **Macro - aspect**: In June, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.7% year - on - year, reaching a 14 - month high. The PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, with the decline further expanding. The decline in PPI is mainly due to the seasonal decline in the prices of some domestic raw material manufacturing industries, the decrease in traditional energy prices driven by the increase in the proportion of green power industries, and the pressure on the prices of some industries with a high export proportion. However, with the in - depth promotion of the establishment of a national unified market, the year - on - year decline in the prices of some industries will narrow. The establishment of a long - term mechanism to promote consumption and the expansion of relevant policies to boost consumption will drive the prices of some durable goods and necessities to bottom out and rebound. The pursuit of high - quality industries will drive the prices of some high - tech industrial products to continue to rise [6]. - **Inventory**: As of July 11, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was maintained at 551,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons month - on - month. The increase in social inventory is mainly due to the weak demand in the off - season. The registered warehouse receipts at the exchange continued to decline. As of July 11, the warehouse receipt inventory at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to decrease to 50,200 lots, totaling 251,000 tons. After the exchange introduced new regulations on the delivery standard, most of the 4 - series warehouse receipts cannot be re - registered due to excessive titanium content. The 5 - series warehouse receipts that meet the new delivery standard are actively registered and stored, forming a new source of warehouse receipt inventory. Currently, the number of 5 - series warehouse receipts registered and stored is increasing day by day, and the pressure on warehouse receipt inventory has weakened recently due to the continuous decline in domestic production [7]. 3.3 Industry News - **Renewable Energy Policy**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on the renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight in 2025 and related matters. The 2025 renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight is a binding indicator, and provinces will be assessed accordingly. The 2026 weight is an expected indicator. The calculation of the completion of the renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight in each province is mainly based on the actual physical electricity consumption in the provincial administrative region, supplemented by the purchase of green certificates from other provinces through the provincial green certificate account. The completion of the green power consumption ratio in key energy - consuming industries is mainly calculated based on green certificates. In 2025, the electrolytic aluminum industry will be assessed, while the steel, cement, polysilicon, and new data centers in national hub nodes will only be monitored [9]. - **Aixu Co., Ltd.**: Benefiting from the increase in both volume and price of BC components and cost control, Aixu Co., Ltd. is expected to turn losses into profits in Q2 this year. In the first half of the year, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company was between - 170 million and - 280 million yuan. Combining the Q1 financial data, the company achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 20 million to 130 million yuan in Q2. The company optimized its product structure, and the sales of ABC components were booming. The overseas sales proportion increased significantly, and the overall gross profit margin continued to improve. The premium of BC products is an important reason for the improvement of gross profit. In terms of cost control, the unit production cost of the production base has decreased significantly compared with the same period last year and is approaching the level of mainstream competitors in the industry. In the future, the production cost is expected to be lower than that of TOPCon components [10]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts including industrial silicon production, export volume, domestic social inventory, warehouse receipt inventory at the exchange, weekly production in main producing areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and spot prices of various industrial silicon grades, etc., but specific data analysis is not provided in the text [12][13][15][17]