步入8月，国内电解铝成本先升后降，电解铝利润维持高位整理。截至8月22日，国内电解铝即时成本为 16718.55元／吨，较8月初减少11.11元／吨，较去年同期减少947.72元／吨。截至8月22日，国内电解铝 即时利润为3991.45元／吨，较8月初增加201.11元／吨，较去年同期增长1967.72元／吨。从后期成本变 动来看，氟化铝及预焙阳极价格短期以持稳为主，预焙阳极成本端的支撑较坚挺；"反内卷"带来的政策 效应边际减弱，8月氧化铝产量增幅将受到新产线调试等因素的制约，而氧化铝长单需求相对稳定，预 计近期氧化铝价格震荡偏强。8月电力成本表现以持稳为主，四川部分地区电费因高温影响略有上涨。 近期国家出台《关于2025年可再生能源电力消纳责任权重及有关事项的通知》，该通知不会对电解铝生 产构成影响，但采购绿电或绿证将提升企业成本。 今年国内7月汽车产销分别完成259.1万辆和259.3万辆，环比分别下降7.3%和10.7%，同比分别增长 13.3%和14.7%。7月车市步入传统淡季，在部分厂家安排年度设备检修、部分地区补贴政策阶段性退 坡、汽车消费金融返佣下调及厂家促销力度收缩的影响下，消费者持观望心态。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [4][22]. Core Insights - The construction of zero-carbon parks is being accelerated, with the release of renewable energy power consumption responsibility weights expected by 2025 [1][17]. - The report highlights the increasing responsibility weights for renewable energy consumption across various provinces, with most provinces expected to exceed 20% by 2025 [17][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating renewable energy development with energy management systems to achieve carbon neutrality [22][23]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.82%, while the public utility index increased by 1.11% and the environmental index by 3.17% [1][24]. - Within the electricity sector, coal-fired power increased by 0.41%, hydropower by 0.42%, and renewable energy generation by 1.05% [1][25]. Important Policies and Events - The National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and National Energy Administration issued a notice to accelerate the transformation of energy structures in parks and promote energy conservation and carbon reduction [15][16]. - Hainan Province's implementation plan for market-oriented reform of renewable energy grid prices includes a pricing structure for existing projects and competitive bidding for new projects [16] . Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major coal-fired power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [3][22]. - The report suggests that nuclear power companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power will maintain stable profitability [3][22]. - In the environmental sector, companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [23][22]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Huadian International: Outperform, with an expected EPS of 0.46 in 2024 and 0.62 in 2025 [8]. - Longyuan Power: Outperform, with an expected EPS of 0.75 in 2024 and 0.85 in 2025 [8]. - China Nuclear Power: Outperform, with an expected EPS of 0.46 in 2024 and 0.50 in 2025 [8]. Industry Dynamics and Company Announcements - The report notes that the water and waste incineration sectors are entering a mature phase, with significant improvements in free cash flow [23]. - The report also highlights the potential for domestic waste oil recycling companies to benefit from the EU's SAF blending policy [23]. Industry Key Data Overview - In May, the industrial power generation increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with a total of 737.8 billion kWh generated [49][60]. - The total electricity consumption in May reached 809.6 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.43% [57][60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon continued to rebound. The main reason is that relevant national departments will focus on comprehensively managing the low - price and disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry, promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity, and focusing on accelerating the high - quality development of the industry. All links in the industrial chain are expected to achieve capacity transfer and profit repair. The supply side remains in a tight state, and the demand side shows that the installation volume of photovoltaic ground power stations may slow down significantly in the third quarter. Technically, the futures price has confirmed the bottom support and its center of gravity is gradually moving up, and it is expected to show an upward rebound trend in the short term [2][5][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Data | Contract | July 11 | July 4 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial Silicon Main Contract | 8415.00 | 7980.00 | 435.00 | 5.45% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - Blown 553 Spot | 8850.00 | 8750.00 | 100.00 | 1.14% | Yuan/ton | | Non - Oxygen - Blown 553 Spot | 8650.00 | 8500.00 | 150.00 | 1.76% | Yuan/ton | | 421 Spot | 9200.00 | 9050.00 | 150.00 | 1.66% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 Spot | 10200.00 | 10200.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Organic Silicon DMC Spot | 10800.00 | 10450.00 | 350.00 | 3.35% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon Dense Material Spot | 31.00 | 31.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial Silicon Social Inventory | 55.1 | 55.2 | - 0.1 | - 0.18% | Ten thousand tons | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Supply Side**: The operating rate in Xinjiang is maintained at around 50%, the operating rate in Yunnan has rebounded to over 30% during the wet season, and the output in Sichuan is relatively low. The supply side remains in a tight state [2][5][8]. - **Demand Side**: In July, the start - up of polysilicon has not changed significantly, and some crystal - pulling factories only maintain low inventories. The silicon wafer price is supported by the upstream silicon material price, and the production schedule in July will decrease by 10% month - on - month. The operating rate of photovoltaic cell manufacturers is extremely low, and market demand has weakened significantly. The component market is cautious about price adjustment and prefers to keep prices stable. Driven by the anti - involution policy, manufacturers have no intention to continue the strategy of trading volume with price. The leading photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to jointly cut production by 30% in response to the policy. The social inventory last week was maintained at 551,000 tons, and the spot market is gradually stabilizing and rising under the pull of the policy [2][5][8]. - **Macro - aspect**: In June, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.7% year - on - year, reaching a 14 - month high. The PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, with the decline further expanding. The decline in PPI is mainly due to the seasonal decline in the prices of some domestic raw material manufacturing industries, the decrease in traditional energy prices driven by the increase in the proportion of green power industries, and the pressure on the prices of some industries with a high export proportion. However, with the in - depth promotion of the establishment of a national unified market, the year - on - year decline in the prices of some industries will narrow. The establishment of a long - term mechanism to promote consumption and the expansion of relevant policies to boost consumption will drive the prices of some durable goods and necessities to bottom out and rebound. The pursuit of high - quality industries will drive the prices of some high - tech industrial products to continue to rise [6]. - **Inventory**: As of July 11, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was maintained at 551,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons month - on - month. The increase in social inventory is mainly due to the weak demand in the off - season. The registered warehouse receipts at the exchange continued to decline. As of July 11, the warehouse receipt inventory at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to decrease to 50,200 lots, totaling 251,000 tons. After the exchange introduced new regulations on the delivery standard, most of the 4 - series warehouse receipts cannot be re - registered due to excessive titanium content. The 5 - series warehouse receipts that meet the new delivery standard are actively registered and stored, forming a new source of warehouse receipt inventory. Currently, the number of 5 - series warehouse receipts registered and stored is increasing day by day, and the pressure on warehouse receipt inventory has weakened recently due to the continuous decline in domestic production [7]. 3.3 Industry News - **Renewable Energy Policy**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on the renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight in 2025 and related matters. The 2025 renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight is a binding indicator, and provinces will be assessed accordingly. The 2026 weight is an expected indicator. The calculation of the completion of the renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight in each province is mainly based on the actual physical electricity consumption in the provincial administrative region, supplemented by the purchase of green certificates from other provinces through the provincial green certificate account. The completion of the green power consumption ratio in key energy - consuming industries is mainly calculated based on green certificates. In 2025, the electrolytic aluminum industry will be assessed, while the steel, cement, polysilicon, and new data centers in national hub nodes will only be monitored [9]. - **Aixu Co., Ltd.**: Benefiting from the increase in both volume and price of BC components and cost control, Aixu Co., Ltd. is expected to turn losses into profits in Q2 this year. In the first half of the year, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company was between - 170 million and - 280 million yuan. Combining the Q1 financial data, the company achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 20 million to 130 million yuan in Q2. The company optimized its product structure, and the sales of ABC components were booming. The overseas sales proportion increased significantly, and the overall gross profit margin continued to improve. The premium of BC products is an important reason for the improvement of gross profit. In terms of cost control, the unit production cost of the production base has decreased significantly compared with the same period last year and is approaching the level of mainstream competitors in the industry. In the future, the production cost is expected to be lower than that of TOPCon components [10]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts including industrial silicon production, export volume, domestic social inventory, warehouse receipt inventory at the exchange, weekly production in main producing areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and spot prices of various industrial silicon grades, etc., but specific data analysis is not provided in the text [12][13][15][17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [4][64]. Core Insights - The report highlights the release of renewable energy power consumption responsibility weights and the implementation plans in Zhejiang and Hainan provinces [3][35]. - The public utility sector index increased by 1.11% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [2][12]. - The report suggests a focus on leading companies in the renewable energy sector due to favorable policies and expected improvements in project performance [8][7]. Market Performance - The public utility sector index's PE (TTM) is 17.43, slightly up from 17.38 the previous week, and down from 18.94 a year ago [23][26]. - The public utility sector index's PB (TTM) is 1.75, up from 1.74 the previous week, and down from 1.98 a year ago [26]. - The top-performing stocks for the week include Huayin Power (+40.89%), YN Energy (+25.1%), and Jingyun Tong (+22.32%) [29][30]. Industry Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have set binding indicators for renewable energy consumption responsibility weights for 2025 [35]. - The report discusses the establishment of zero-carbon parks and the implementation of green electricity direct connection plans in Yunnan province [36][37]. - Hainan's pricing mechanism for new energy projects has been clarified, with competitive pricing ranges established for onshore and offshore wind projects [37][38]. Key Data Tracking - As of July 11, 2025, the price of Shanxi mixed coal (5500) is 624 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.3% [42]. - The trading volume of wind and solar energy certificates totaled 5.4 and 3.65 million respectively during the week [45]. - The national CEA trading volume for the week was 51.5 thousand tons, with an average price of 74.30 CNY/ton [49][51].

Core Viewpoint - The document outlines the renewable energy power consumption responsibility weights for 2025 and 2026, emphasizing the need for provinces to enhance their renewable energy consumption and green electricity usage in key industries to support carbon neutrality goals [2][3]. Group 1: Renewable Energy Consumption Responsibility Weights - The 2025 renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight is a binding indicator for provinces, while the 2026 weight is a target for planning and project preparation [2]. - Provinces are required to optimize their renewable energy consumption and enhance their regulatory capabilities to improve the power system's absorption and adjustment levels [2][4]. Group 2: Green Electricity Consumption in Key Industries - In addition to the electrolytic aluminum industry, the 2025 plan includes increasing the green electricity consumption ratio for the steel, cement, polysilicon industries, and newly established data centers [3]. - The completion of green electricity consumption ratios for key industries will be monitored, with specific assessments for the electrolytic aluminum industry in 2025, while other industries will only be monitored [4]. Group 3: Implementation and Reporting Requirements - Provincial energy authorities must develop and implement plans to meet the renewable energy consumption responsibility weights and green electricity consumption ratios, reporting their progress by specified deadlines [5][6]. - The State Energy Administration will monitor the implementation of these responsibilities and provide guidance to ensure compliance [6].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have announced that the renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight for 2025 must be completed within that year and will not be transferred to 2026 [1] Group 1 - Each province's renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight will be calculated based on the actual physical electricity consumed within the province, supplemented by the purchase of green certificates from outside the province [1] - The assessment of green electricity consumption in key energy-consuming industries will primarily rely on green certificates [1] - In 2025, provinces will be evaluated on the green electricity consumption ratio for the electrolytic aluminum industry, while the steel, cement, polysilicon, and newly built data centers at national hub nodes will only be monitored without assessment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notification regarding the renewable energy power consumption responsibility weights for 2025, establishing binding targets for provinces to enhance renewable energy integration into the power system [1] Group 1: 2025 Renewable Energy Power Consumption Responsibility Weights - The 2025 renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight is set as a binding indicator for assessment across provinces, with specific percentages outlined for each region [1] - Provinces are required to optimize their project reserves and improve their power consumption and regulation capabilities based on the 2025 targets [1] Group 2: 2026 Renewable Energy Power Consumption Responsibility Weight Expectations - The 2026 renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight is designated as an expected target, encouraging provinces to prepare accordingly [4] - The expected weights for 2026 show a general increase compared to 2025, indicating a trend towards greater renewable energy integration [4] Group 3: Provincial Breakdown of Responsibility Weights - Specific provincial weights for 2025 include: - Hunan: 50.5%, Guangdong: 31.6%, and Sichuan: 70.0% for total consumption responsibility [2] - Non-hydropower weights vary, with notable figures such as Hunan at 25.7% and Sichuan at 11.9% [2] - For 2026, expected weights show slight increases, with Hunan projected at 51.5% and Sichuan remaining at 70.0% [4]

Group 1 - Multiple silicon wafer companies have raised their prices, with increases ranging from 8.0% to 11.7% [2][5] - The price of N-type 183 silicon wafers increased by 11.1% to 1.0 yuan/piece, N-type 210R wafers rose by 11.7% to 1.15 yuan/piece, and N-type 210 wafers went up by 8.0% to 1.35 yuan/piece [5] - Following the price increase, the unit gross profit for N-type 183 silicon wafers improved to -0.27 yuan/piece (equivalent to -0.03 yuan/W), indicating a reduction in loss margin [5] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued guidelines for the renewable energy power consumption responsibility weights for 2025 and 2026, which include new green power consumption ratios for key industries such as steel, cement, and polysilicon [2][6] - The 2025 renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight is a binding indicator for provincial assessments, while the 2026 weight is a projected indicator for project preparation [6][7] Group 3 - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies such as TBEA Co., Ltd. and Tongwei Co., Ltd. [3]

Core Insights - The National Energy Administration has reported that Shaanxi Province has achieved a renewable energy consumption responsibility weight completion of 26.6%, with a total renewable energy consumption of 69.1 billion kilowatt-hours [1] - Shaanxi's non-hydropower renewable energy consumption reached 60.2 billion kilowatt-hours, exceeding the national target [1] Group 1 - Shaanxi Province is implementing a new energy security strategy and is focused on achieving carbon neutrality goals by developing a new power system centered around renewable energy [1][2] - The installed capacity of renewable energy in Shaanxi has increased to 56.56 million kilowatts by the end of March 2025, which is 2.3 times that of the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, with an annual growth rate exceeding 23% [1] - The proportion of renewable energy in the total installed capacity of the province has risen to 48% [1] Group 2 - The provincial development and reform commission aims to prioritize the development of renewable energy and establish three renewable energy bases, while also promoting pumped storage projects and the hydrogen energy storage industry [2] - The goal is to enhance the external power transmission channels and facilitate large-scale, high-proportion, and market-oriented development of renewable energy [2] - This initiative is expected to empower the province's high-quality development and ensure national energy security [2]