免责声明 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 155,860.00 | +2800.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -104,187.00 | +2344.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 332,374.00 | -6637.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -2,960.00 | +1620.00↑ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 36,840.00 | -315.00↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 156,000.00 | +2000.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 152,500.00 | +2000.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | 140.00 | -800.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6% ...

两会新华社权威速览 2026年 政府工作报; ·一图速览 · 2025年工作回顾 2025年是很不平凡的一年。党的二十届四中全会胜利召开, 擘画了未来五年我国发展的宏伟蓝图。我们隆重纪念中国人民 抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年,设立台湾光复纪念 日,极大振奋民族精神、激发爱国热情、凝聚奋斗力量。面对 国内外形势深刻复杂的变化,以习近平同志为核心的党中央团 结带领全国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼搏,坚定不移贯彻新发 展理念、推动高质量发展,统筹国内国际两个大局,全年经济 社会发展主要目标任务顺利完成,"十四五"圆满收官,中国式 现代化迈出新的坚实步伐。 EENS 我国经济顶压前行、展现强大韧性 经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进 增长 总量达到 国内生产总值 5% 140.19万亿元 就业总体稳定 城镇新增就业 城镇调查失业率 1267万人 平均为5.2% 对外贸易较快增长,出口多元化 成效明显,国际收支基本平衡 民生保障更加有力,居民收入增长和 经济增长同步,脱贫攻坚成果巩固拓展 | 实施学前一年免费教育政策 1400万儿童 | | --- | | 全面实施育儿补贴制度 惠及 3000多万婴幼儿 | | 粮食产量 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the domestic AI model industry, particularly focusing on the advancements in large models and agent technologies in China, with comparisons to international counterparts. Core Insights and Arguments - **Revenue Growth**: In early 2026, both domestic and international models experienced explosive growth in annual revenue (AR) and token consumption. Kimi's revenue for the first 20 days of January 2026 surpassed its total revenue for 2025, while Minimax reported an AR exceeding $150 million in February 2026 [1][2]. - **Model Advancements**: Domestic models have made significant strides with the release of Deepseek V3.2 and GLM5, leading to a market share increase in OpenRouter from approximately 15%-20% to 25% [3]. The upcoming Deepseek V4 is expected to further enhance this share to 30%-40% [4]. - **Cost Efficiency**: The architecture of domestic models is converging towards a "price optimal solution" below one trillion parameters, which is expected to enhance competitiveness in the global market [4]. - **Coding Model Comparison**: Domestic coding models are currently at a level comparable to international models from October 2025, with a scoring gap primarily due to differences in parameter scale and data quality [5][6]. - **Agent Experience Improvement**: The agent experience has significantly improved due to changes in training data structure and engineering enhancements, allowing for a more human-like output quality of 80%-90% [8][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Token Consumption Dynamics**: The first leap in token consumption for domestic models occurred in December 2025 with the release of Deepseek V3.2, which reduced token costs significantly [3]. The second leap followed in January 2026 with GLM5, further increasing market share [3]. - **Engineering Improvements**: The engineering advancements in tool invocation have allowed agents to increase their effective context from 30-40K tokens to over 100K tokens, enabling them to perform more tasks successfully [11]. - **Future Trends**: The year 2026 is anticipated to be pivotal for the AI industry, with a focus on the domestic computing power chain, including companies involved in computing power leasing and server availability [14]. The market is expected to see rapid growth in model revenue, surpassing previous expectations [14]. - **International Market Dynamics**: The overseas market is expected to see a clearer and earlier return on investment (ROI) from computing power investments, with positive developments anticipated in 2026 [15]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the advancements in the domestic AI model industry, revenue growth, and the competitive landscape compared to international models.

"Hetzner本质上是一家云基础设施供应商，他们购买硬件进行管理，并出租其容量。对于这次涨价我并 不意外，"Omdia企业基础设施高级研究总监Vlad Galabov表示。他认为，其他云供应商也将陆续涨 价。"对于依赖低成本云托管的公司来说，今年的基础设施成本绝对会大幅跳升。" 在此之前，全球云计算市场已进入密集涨价周期。 从芯片、云到大模型，AI及算力产业链涨价潮正在逐步扩散。 日前，欧洲最大的数据中心运营商及云服务商之一Hetzner宣布，由于"IT多个领域成本大幅上涨"，公 司将于2026年4月1日起调高全线产品及服务报价，包括云服务、专用服务器、存储及负载均衡器等，多 款产品涨幅相当显著。此次调价将影响该公司位于欧洲、美国和新加坡数据中心的新订单及现有订阅用 户。 所有业务中，按欧元报价涨幅较为显著的是云服务报价，例如德国及芬兰的云服务价格根据配置等级的 不同，涨幅在30%到38%之间；美国地区的CCX专用vCPU云服务器价格普遍涨幅在30%水平。 这已是Hetzner本月第二次宣布提价。此前在2月2日，该公司曾宣布调高专用服务器的一次性设置费用/ 初装费，涨价原因主要在于"硬件组件采购价格异常高昂 ...

消息面上，据证券时报，昨日华为云码道（CodeArts）代码智能体公测版发布，集代码大模型、IDE、 自主开发模式为一体，覆盖代码生成、研发知识问答、单元测试用例生成、专家技能Skills、Codebase 代码库索引、规范驱动开发等AI Coding技术，同时接入开源模型GLM-5.0、DeepSeek-V3.2以及华为自 研模型，并提供鸿蒙的专属模型，可为开发者提高研发效率，提供智能化编码体验。 南方财经2月27日电，华为算力概念反复走强，华胜天成走出5天3板，拓维信息涨停，云天励飞涨超 10%，润和软件、软通动力、常山北明、神州数码、拓尔思跟涨。 平安证券表示，当前我国国产大模型持续迭代，能力持续提升，将进一步推动国产大模型从"可 用"到"好用"，加快国产大模型在千行百业应用场景的落地，加快我国大模型产业的发展。我们坚定看 好我国AI产业的发展前景，建议持续关注AI主题的投资机会。标的方面，1）AI算力：推荐海光信息、 龙芯中科、工业富联、浪潮信息、紫光股份、中科曙光、神州数码、深信服，建议关注寒武纪、摩尔线 程、沐曦股份、华勤技术、景嘉微、软通动力、拓维信息。2）AI算法和应用：强烈推荐恒生电子、中 ...

研究早观点 2026 年 2 月 27 日 星期五 市场走势 【今日要点】 【行业评论】通信：周跟踪（20260209-20260215）-国产大模型春节档 密集推新，NPO 和柜内光 3 月重点关注 资料来源：常闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 4,146.63 | -0.01 | | 深证成指 | | 14,503.79 | 0.19 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,726.87 | -0.19 | | 中小板指 | | 8,841.13 | 0.61 | | 创业板指 | | 3,344.98 | -0.29 | | 科创 | 50 | 1,485.86 | 0.85 | 资料来源：常闻 分析师： 彭皓辰 执业登记编码：S0760525060001 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 研究早观点 【今日要点】 【行业评论】通信：周跟踪（20260209-20260215）-国产大模型春节档密集推新，NPO ...

通信 周跟踪（20260209-20260215） 领先大市-A(维持) ——国产大模型春节档密集推新，NPO 和柜内光 3 月重点关注 2026 年 2 月 26 日 行业研究/行业周报 通信行业近一年市场表现 行业动向： 资料来源：常闻 相关报告： 【山证通信】北美资本开支增长并 未见顶，Scaleup 是光通信重要增量-周跟 【山证通信】——moltbot 爆火背后 1）国产大模型春节档密集更新，算力告急下国产 GPU Day0 适配市场巨大。 春节档豆包、元宝、千问"红包大战"与春节主题密集投流体现出国内大模型 C 端争抢流量入口进入白热化阶段，我们认为智能体 APP 渗透率的快速提升叠加智 能体能力的开放有望带来 Token 的非线性增长维持资本开支的刚性。大模型推新 方面，厂商密集发布与市场的热烈反馈表明我国在大模型算法创新和训练方面与 全球一线梯队接近。其中，字节豆包大模型 2.0 系列除夕上线，重点强化多模态 交互、AGENT 自主任务能力和代码生成效率，seedance2.0 更是支持 60 秒生成电 影级多镜头视频并为春晚部分视觉内容提供创作支持；阿里除夕同步上线千问 Qwen3.5 pl ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the active performance of the domestic computing power sector, with significant increases in relevant indices, indicating a strong market trend [1] - Since the Spring Festival, three major changes have occurred in domestic large models: ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 product exceeded expectations, domestic multimodal models entered the global top tier, and there was notable overseas penetration [1] - The models Doubao, Yuanbao, and Qianwen performed exceptionally well during the holiday, with Doubao becoming ByteDance's product with the lowest promotion cost to achieve over 100 million daily active users (DAU) [1] - The commercial value of Zhipu and MiniMax has been reassessed, with sustained strong demand for computing power [1] Group 2 - OpenRouter's latest weekly data shows that over 60% of the total token volume from the top ten models on the platform is from Chinese models, with the top three being domestic large models [1] - CITIC Securities points out that the explosive growth in tokens reflects an exponential expansion in AI inference demand, with domestic computing power expected to gradually dominate the infrastructure layer due to cost advantages and an improving ecosystem [1] - The CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index focuses on the semiconductor materials and equipment sector, with 63% in semiconductor equipment and 23% in semiconductor materials [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board Chip Design Theme Index focuses on chip design, with digital chip design and analog chip design accounting for 77% and 18%, respectively [1] - Investors can consider the semiconductor equipment ETF E Fund (159558) and the Science and Technology Chip Design ETF E Fund (589030) to invest in core domestic computing power targets [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the technology sector, particularly focusing on overseas computing power (CPO), domestic computing power, and storage chips during the Chinese New Year holiday period. [1][2] Key Points Overseas Computing Power - **CPO Performance**: - Lumentum increased by 18.66% and Coherent by 14.25%, benefiting from better-than-expected CPO and OCS orders announced in FY26Q2, indicating growing market recognition of the CPO industry. [1] - **Cloud Services**: - Google saw a 4.29% increase, launching the Gemini 3.1 Pro flagship model on February 19, significantly enhancing inference and coding capabilities. [1] Domestic Computing Power - **Domestic Model Performance**: - Notable increases in domestic models: Zhiyu up by 49.5% and Minimax by 42.7%. [2] - **New Model Launches**: - Several flagship models were launched during the holiday, including Zhiyu GLM-5, MiniMax M2.5, Qwen 3.5-Plus, and Doubao 2.0 + Seedance 2.0. [2] - **Technological and Commercialization Shift**: - The domestic large model sector is experiencing a dual inflection point, transitioning from parameter competition to efficiency and agent revolution, with commercialization moving from investment to profitability. [2] - **Globalization Trend**: - There is an accelerating trend of reverse globalization in the domestic computing power sector. [2] - **Focus on Full-stack Autonomy**: - Emphasis on domestic chips, self-developed frameworks, and deep model adaptation. [2] - **Aliyun's Progress**: - Achieved a key milestone with the global launch of the 3.2TNPO module, applied in the new generation of domestic four-chip switches. [2] Storage Chips - **Market Performance**: - In the US market, SanDisk rose by 3.74% and Micron by 4.01%. In the Hong Kong market, Zhaoyi Innovation increased by 8.92% and Lanke Technology by 14.59%. [2] - **Micron's Expansion**: - Micron is investing $50 billion to double the size of its Boise campus and is constructing two new wafer fabs, expected to start production of DRAM in 2027, with full production by the end of 2028. [3] Investment Insights - **CPO Technology Innovation**: - Continued focus on CPO technology and the Google chain, with key companies including 富联, 天孚, 致尚, 炬光, and 罗博. [3] - **Domestic Large Models and Chips**: - Emphasis on domestic computing power with companies like 中芯, 华虹, 芯原, 盛科, and 华懋. [3] - **Storage Recommendations**: - Continued recommendations for Zhaoyi Innovation and Lanke Technology, alongside a focus on US stocks like SNDK and MU. [3]

Market Overview - A-shares opened significantly higher with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.17%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.82%, and ChiNext Index up 1.76% as of midday close [1] - The strong opening is attributed to multiple favorable factors, including a stable and positive external market during the Spring Festival, with Hong Kong stocks and FTSE China A50 Index showing steady gains [1] - Domestic liquidity remains reasonably ample, with effective reverse repurchase operations before the holiday stabilizing the market's funding situation, and increased capital inflow post-holiday providing support for market upward movement [1] - Macroeconomic recovery and ongoing industrial policy implementation have further boosted market risk appetite, leading to optimistic investor expectations for the capital market in the Year of the Rabbit [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals, oil and gas, and computing power sectors saw the largest index gains, with precious metals leading the charge [2] - Precious metals surged, with Xiaocheng Technology rising nearly 13% and Hunan Silver approaching the daily limit, alongside other gold-related stocks [4] - The oil and gas sector was active, with Tongyuan Petroleum hitting the daily limit and other companies like Intercontinental Oil and Huibo Petroleum also seeing significant gains [5] - Fiber optic stocks continued to perform well, with Hangdian Co. hitting the daily limit and other companies in the sector experiencing substantial increases [7] - The chemical sector showed strength, particularly in phosphate and pesticide areas, with several companies reaching the daily limit [8] Future Outlook - Industrial securities predict that A-shares are entering a high-probability window, with expectations for a new upward trend post-holiday [10] - Dongwu Securities suggests that historical "Spring Festival effect" indicates a potential recovery in trading volume and price, supported by favorable global market conditions [11] - Huaxi Securities expresses optimism for a "red envelope market" post-holiday, driven by external uncertainties and strong performance in technology sectors during the holiday [12] - Guotou Securities highlights the likelihood of a resurgence in technology stocks post-holiday, supported by stable global equity markets and significant domestic catalysts in robotics and AI [13]